Hawthorn Hawks 2026 Season Betting Stats – ATS, Over/Under & Form Trends

Hawthorn Hawks sit 15th in the 2026 AFL ATS standings with a 6-9 record and 40% ATS, well below the 52.38% threshold required to beat the bookmakers consistently. The Hawks have started as favourites in 14 of 15 games, covering just five times, while their lone underdog start produced no win against the spread. On totals they have trended under at 9-6 (60%), aligning closely with the league-wide lean toward unders (59.44%).

Hawthorn’s betting profile is that of a team that struggles to cover as short-priced favourites and offers little value on the over. Their inability to exceed the spread in the majority of expected wins has made them a fade candidate in most matchups.

Recent form shows no improvement, with the side posting a 40% ATS mark across both the last five and last ten games while continuing to land on the under at a similar clip. Without meaningful quarter or half-time splits available, the data offers no evidence of fast starts or strong finishes that could alter betting angles.

The standout result came in round 7 when Hawthorn covered their largest spread of the year, defeating Gold Coast 112-63 as 6.5-point favourites for a 42.5-point cover. League-wide, favourites have covered at just 39.86%, so Hawthorn’s poor record is not entirely anomalous yet still ranks among the least profitable ATS profiles.

The season takeaway is clear: Hawthorn have been a consistent under and against-the-spread fade wherever they have been installed as favourites, with no recent form suggesting a change in that pattern.