Essendon Bombers 2026 Season | Stats, Form & Betting Analysis

POR

vs

ESS

Aug 23 12:20pm ·Marvel Stadium ·Round 24

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🧠 Match Preview

Port Adelaide Power head to Marvel Stadium in Round 24 facing an Essendon Bombers side that has struggled to maintain consistency. With both teams searching for late-season momentum, the contest offers a clear statistical contrast between a more efficient attack and a defence under sustained pressure. Port Adelaide enter the match on the back of five consecutive defeats, yet their underlying numbers remain more competitive than the results suggest. Across those games they averaged 77.23 points scored and 88.77 conceded. Their scoring has been steady in the 63-75 range, but heavy concessions in the final two outings inflated the defensive average. Essendon, by comparison, have managed just one win in five matches and sit at 68.45 points for and 107.86 against. Their attack has been held below 55 points in three of the last five, while their defence has repeatedly conceded totals above 110. The margin trends reinforce the gap. Port’s losses have come by an average of 54 points, though two of those defeats were decided by fewer than 30. Essendon’s results show even wider variance, with a three-point victory offset by three losses of 67 points or more. This inconsistency has left Essendon vulnerable to teams that can sustain pressure across quarters. At the betting window, Port Adelaide are favoured by between 6.5 and 8.5 points on the line, with totals set around 176.5. The market appears to have factored in Port’s superior scoring average and Essendon’s leaky defence. Given Port’s recent ability to keep games within three goals for longer stretches, a line of -7.5 looks reachable if they avoid another slow start. The over/under sits near both teams’ combined seasonal averages, suggesting a moderate-scoring affair rather than a shootout. Tactically, Port will look to exploit Essendon’s second-half fade-outs by maintaining possession and forcing repeat entries. Essendon’s best chance lies in an early surge and capitalising on any Port inaccuracy inside 50, but their low scoring output makes that path difficult to sustain. Port Adelaide should prevail. Expect them to win by a margin of 12 to 22 points in a contest that stays under the total.

✏️ Game Analysis

Port Adelaide Power visit Essendon Bombers in a matchup where the approved Port Adelaide Power team total play at 2.5 units stands out. With True 62% and Edge 8% at odds 1.84, this wager reinforces a projected game shape of controlled, low-output football. Port Adelaide Power are positioned to manage the tempo, keeping the total in check while Essendon Bombers struggle to break through. The line call ties directly to expectations of a grind-it-out battle at Marvel, where Port Adelaide Power's structure limits high-scoring bursts. This single approved play captures the essence of the contest, projecting Port Adelaide Power to shape the outcome through steady accumulation rather than explosive plays.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Port Adelaide Power lead Essendon Bombers 21-17 at the first change in a scrappy, low-scoring opening term at Marvel Stadium. Both sides were wasteful inside 50, combining for just six goals and 14 behinds as entries were repeatedly repelled. Port struck first through Mitchell Georgiades and added majors via Tom Anastasopoulos and Oliver Wines, while Essendon replied with goals to Peter Wright and Nate Caddy but missed five shots themselves. The Power hold a narrow four-point advantage despite recording only three goals, reflecting Essendon’s inaccuracy rather than sustained dominance. Momentum sits slightly with the visitors, who generated cleaner forward entries late in the quarter. From a betting lens the game remains wide open. Full-game totals sit around 187.5 with both teams well under projected scoring pace after 38 combined points. Spread markets price Port as modest favourites, yet the first-quarter margin was only four points. Expect adjustments once structures tighten and both attacks find rhythm in the second term.

Probabilities

52-58%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Port Adelaide Power -3.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)

48-54%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Under 187.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

53-59%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Port Adelaide Power -2.5 covering at 1.92 (Neds)

49-55%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Under 93.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Port Adelaide Power

Under

Lean to Under 94.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Essendon Bombers

Under

Lean to Under 90.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime, Port Adelaide Power lead Essendon Bombers 54-38 after a dominant second quarter that saw them kick six goals to three. Port’s efficiency inside 50 and ability to capitalise on Essendon’s turnovers has created clear separation. Essendon showed early promise with Nate Caddy’s three goals but faded under sustained pressure, managing only eight behinds for the half. The 16-point margin reflects Port’s superior ball movement and contested ball work, while Essendon’s defence has struggled to limit repeat entries. From a betting perspective, the total sits at 92, tracking comfortably toward the 187.5 line. Port’s 54 already exceeds several half-time team total unders, creating strong momentum for their full-game overs. Essendon’s attack remains below most projected lines, keeping their overs under pressure. The second half should see Port maintain structure and exploit Essendon’s second-half fade-outs noted in recent form. Expect Port to extend the margin while the game stays on pace for a moderate-to-high total. Key takeaway: Port Adelaide hold clear control and are well positioned to cover spreads while pushing the total over.

Probabilities

72-78

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Strong lean to Port Adelaide Power -3.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)

68-74

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Strong lean to Over 187.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

65-71

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Port Adelaide Power -2.5 covering at 1.92 (Neds)

62-68

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 93.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Port Adelaide Power

Over

Strong lean to Port Adelaide Power Over 94.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Essendon Bombers

Under

Lean to Essendon Bombers Under 90.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Essendon lead Port Adelaide 63-62 after a dominant third quarter that erased a 16-point halftime deficit. The Bombers booted five goals to one in the term, with Nate Caddy finishing with four majors and Peter Wright adding two. Port Adelaide’s earlier efficiency faded as turnovers and poor entries allowed Essendon to seize momentum and control of the contest. The total score sits at 125, well below the 187.5-189.5 market lines, yet the pace of the last quarter suggests the over remains live. Essendon’s defensive pressure has improved markedly since the main break, restricting Port to just one goal after they had kicked eight in the opening half. From a betting perspective the game has flipped: Port were 3.5-5.5 point favourites pre-game, yet Essendon now hold a narrow lead and the better recent form. With one quarter remaining, the contest is effectively a one-goal game that could swing either way, though Essendon’s current momentum gives them the edge in a low-scoring final term. The key takeaway is that Essendon have seized control through superior ball movement and forward pressure, while Port must lift their intensity immediately to avoid a damaging late-season defeat.

Probabilities

52-58

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Essendon Bombers +4.5 covering at 1.90 (Bet Right)

68-74

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 187.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

55-61

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Essendon Bombers +3.5 covering at 1.92 (SportsBet)

62-68

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 93.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Port Adelaide Power

Over

Lean to Port Adelaide Power Over 94.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Essendon Bombers

Over

Lean to Essendon Bombers Over 90.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Port Adelaide Power Port Adelaide Power vs Essendon Bombers	Head to Head	SportsBet	—	1.84	62.0%	8.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Port Adelaide Power Port Adelaide Power vs Essendon Bombers	Head to Head	SportsBet	—	1.84	62.0%	8.0%	T2	2.5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -
Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
POR Port Adelaide Power
ESS Essendon Bombers

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The side went down 95 (14.11) to the opposition 105 (16.9), a ten-point defeat at Marvel Stadium. Trailing by 16 at half time, the home team mounted a strong third-quarter fightback to take a one-point lead into the final change, only for the visitors to kick the last four goals of the match. Nate Caddy finished with six goals for the home side while the opposition’s Mitchell Georgiades booted five.

Season Story So Far

A gritty four-point win in round 19 briefly lifted spirits, but the campaign has since unravelled with four straight heavy losses. The side has struggled to maintain intensity across four quarters and has been outscored heavily in the second and third terms of recent matches.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With the season all but complete, the team sits well outside finals contention. Points and percentage both reflect a difficult year, with the side conceding significantly more than it has scored across the past month.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 19: Defeated Greater Western Sydney Giants 67-64
Round 20: Lost to Hawthorn Hawks 39-132
Round 21: Lost to Adelaide Crows 73-145
Round 22: Lost to Geelong Cats 50-117
Round 23: Lost to Sydney Swans 76-112

Four defeats on the trot have left the group searching for answers heading into the final round.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has been consistently outplayed on the spread in recent weeks and has failed to cover the total in four of the last five outings. Early promise in tight games has not translated into consistent results against the line.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Zach Merrett continues to lead the midfield with high disposal counts and strong contested possessions, while Nate Caddy has shown promising signs up forward. Defensively the unit has been stretched, conceding high inside-50 numbers and struggling to limit opposition scoring opportunities after quarter time.

Player Highlights

Zach Merrett: 32 disposals, 18 kicks and strong clearance work in the latest outing.
Nate Caddy: Six goals and 17 disposals, underlining his growing threat inside 50.
Peter Wright: Consistent target up forward with multiple scoring shots across recent weeks.
Jacob Farrow: Double-digit disposals and strong defensive efforts from the wing.
Angus Clarke: Three goals and 14 disposals in his most recent appearance.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed a couple of key player props but missed the margin and total markets in the past fortnight. Honest assessment: the overs on disposals for the midfield core were the bright spots while the team totals proved too optimistic given the recent form slump.

Outlook / What to Watch

Essendon Bombers will aim to finish the home-and-away season with pride, focusing on cleaner ball movement and better conversion in front of goal. Expect a high-intensity approach at Marvel Stadium as the group looks to build some late momentum and set the tone for the off-season.

SYD

vs

ESS

Aug 16 4:40pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 23

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🧠 Match Preview

Sydney Swans travel to the Melbourne Cricket Ground for round 23 to face Essendon Bombers in what shapes as a mismatch on current form. The visitors enter the contest with clear momentum, while the home side continues to battle consistency issues. Sydney Swans have secured three wins from their past five outings, producing a mixed but ultimately upward trajectory. After consecutive losses by 38 and 16 points, they responded with victories by 51, 19 and 97 points. That run has lifted their season scoring average to 109.9 points per game while holding opponents to 82.1. Essendon Bombers, by contrast, have managed just one win in the same window, a narrow three-point victory, and have suffered heavy defeats by 90, 93, 72 and 67 points. Their attack is averaging only 68.1 points while conceding 107.7. The statistical gap is stark. Sydney’s recent scoring has frequently exceeded 130 points in wins, whereas Essendon has posted sub-70 totals in four of their last five games. The 27.8-point difference in average points scored between the sides underscores why bookmakers have installed the Swans as heavy favourites. Betting markets reflect that dominance. The line sits at Sydney minus 60.5 to 61.5, with the total set at 184.5. Given Sydney’s three wins by an average margin of 55.7 points and Essendon’s four losses by an average of 80.5 points, the spread looks generous to the visitors. Sydney’s ability to post big scores while keeping games under control suggests they are well placed to cover the line, while the total appears slightly optimistic given Essendon’s low-scoring trend. Tactically, Sydney will look to exploit space through the midfield and forward entries, where their recent accuracy has been strong. Essendon will need to tighten their defensive structure early if they are to avoid another blowout, but their inability to generate consistent forward pressure remains a concern. Sydney Swans are expected to prevail comfortably. A final margin in the 55-to-65-point range appears the most likely outcome.

✏️ Game Analysis

Sydney Swans travel to face Essendon Bombers with the approved plays all aligning on a dominant performance from the Swans. Sydney Swans -30.5 carries a 72% True probability and 4% Edge, indicating the Bombers will struggle to stay within the margin. This pairs with the Over 121.5 Sydney total at 65% True and 5% Edge, projecting a high-scoring output from the Swans throughout the match. The Over 59.5 Sydney first half at 68% True and 4% Edge reinforces an early lead that extends into a comprehensive victory. Together these lines shape a contest where Sydney establishes control from the opening stages and maintains pressure to cover the spread while exceeding their team totals.

⚡Quarter Time Report

At quarter time Sydney Swans have blown Essendon apart at the MCG, leading 55-18 after a devastating opening term. Nine goals to three tells the story, with Chad Warner (three goals) and Charlie Curnow (three goals) tearing the Bombers apart through the midfield and forward line. Essendon managed only three majors and zero behinds, their attack stalling after early promise from Jaxon Prior and Archie Perkins. Sydney have dominated contested ball, inside-50 entries and forward pressure, turning the contest into a one-sided affair within 35 minutes. The 37-point margin already exceeds most Q1 spreads on offer. From a betting perspective the Swans have seized control of both the margin and the total early. Essendon’s inability to score behinds or generate repeat entries suggests their total will remain suppressed unless they produce a dramatic second-quarter response. Sydney’s scoring rate points to a substantial final margin. With three quarters remaining the visitors are well placed to extend their advantage, while the total looks headed well above the lower quarter lines. Sydney’s early dominance sets up a strong platform for both the full-game spread and their own team total.

Probabilities

72-78

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Strong lean to Sydney Swans -59.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)

58-64

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 184.5 at 1.88 (Neds)

65-71

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Sydney Swans -29.5 covering at 1.91 (Neds)

60-66

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 91.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Sydney Swans

Over

Strong lean to Sydney Swans Over 122.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Essendon Bombers

Under

Lean to Essendon Bombers Under 62.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime, Sydney Swans hold a commanding 70-46 lead over Essendon Bombers at the MCG. The Swans dominated the opening term with seven goals to three, then added four more in the second quarter to establish a 24-point advantage. Sydney’s forward pressure and clean ball movement have created repeated opportunities, while Essendon’s defence has struggled to contain entries. Essendon showed some fight late in the second term with two quick goals but remain well behind on the scoreboard and on the stats sheet. Momentum sits firmly with the visitors, who have averaged over 109 points in recent wins. From a betting perspective, the full-game total of 184.5-185.5 remains live with 116 points scored so far. Sydney’s spread position at -59.5 to -60.5 is still reachable given their scoring rate. Essendon’s low output suggests they will struggle to keep the margin under the line in the second half. Sydney look well placed to extend their advantage, though Essendon may lift early in the third term. The key takeaway is that Sydney’s structure and efficiency give them a clear edge heading into the second half.

Probabilities

62-68%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Sydney Swans -59.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)

58-64%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 184.5 at 1.88 (Neds)

55-61%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Sydney Swans -29.5 covering at 1.91 (Neds)

52-58%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 92.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Sydney Swans

strong

Strong lean to Sydney Swans Over 122.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Essendon Bombers

lean

Lean to Essendon Bombers Under 62.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Sydney Swans hold a commanding 87-61 lead over Essendon Bombers at the MCG. The Swans have been clinical, particularly through Charlie Curnow and Chad Warner, who combined for multiple early goals to establish a platform the Bombers have been unable to reel in. Essendon showed brief resistance in the second and third terms but remain 26 points adrift with one quarter remaining. Scoring has been controlled rather than explosive, with the total sitting at 148 and the game trending below the 184.5-185.5 full-game line. Sydney’s forward entries and midfield control have restricted Essendon’s ability to generate momentum, leaving the home side needing a significant final-quarter surge just to stay competitive. From a betting perspective the margin market remains live, while the total and team totals markets have clear directional leans given time left. Sydney’s ability to manage games from similar positions suggests they will dictate the final term, either extending the margin or controlling tempo to protect their lead. Essendon’s low-scoring pattern this season makes a dramatic comeback unlikely.

Probabilities

62-68%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Sydney Swans -59.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)

55-61%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Under 185.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

58-64%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Sydney Swans -29.5 covering at 1.91 (Neds)

52-58%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Under 92.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Sydney Swans

Under

Lean to Under 122.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Essendon Bombers

Under

Lean to Under 62.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Sydney Swans -30.5 Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers	1H Spreads	TAB	-29.5	1.90	72.0%	4.0%	T3	5u	L
Over 59.5 (Sydney Swans) Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	59.5	1.84	68.0%	4.0%	T2	2.5u	W
Over 121.5 (Sydney Swans) Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	122.5	1.89	65.0%	5.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 121.5 (Sydney Swans) Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	122.5	1.89	65.0%	5.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Sydney Swans -30.5 Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers	1H Spreads	TAB	-29.5	1.90	72.0%	4.0%	T3	5u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 59.5 (Sydney Swans) Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	59.5	1.84	68.0%	4.0%	T2	2.5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -
Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
SYD Sydney Swans
ESS Essendon Bombers

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The side went down 11.10 (76) to 17.10 (112), a 36-point defeat. The opposition dominated early with nine goals in the first term to the team's three, then added further pressure in the second to lead by 24 at the main break. The visitors fought back in patches but could not close the gap. The opposition’s top performers kicked four and three goals respectively, while the team’s best forward haul came from Nate Caddy with three majors.

Season Story So Far

A heavy loss in the latest outing caps a difficult run of results. One narrow victory in the previous five games offered brief encouragement, but consistent heavy defeats have left the side searching for answers and momentum heading into the final weeks.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With no official ladder data available at this point, the raw numbers tell their own story. The team has scored modestly while conceding heavily across recent weeks, resulting in a negative points differential that reflects the challenges faced on both ends of the ground.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 18: Lost to Brisbane Lions 59-149
Round 19: Defeated Greater Western Sydney Giants 67-64
Round 20: Lost to Hawthorn Hawks 39-132
Round 21: Lost to Adelaide Crows 73-145
Round 22: Lost to Geelong Cats 50-117

Four losses and one win in that stretch underline the inconsistency that has defined the campaign.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has struggled to cover spreads in most outings, with margins often blowing out beyond expectations. Totals have also tended to land on the lower side when the opposition controls the contest, though the occasional shootout has produced higher scores.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward entries have been limited and often turned over quickly. The midfield has worked hard for disposals but struggled to convert them into sustained pressure. Tackling numbers have been solid in patches, yet the inability to win the ball back in dangerous areas has hurt the transition game.

Player Highlights

Zach Merrett: Consistent ball-winner with 24 disposals and strong contested numbers in the latest match.
Nate Caddy: Led the forward line with three goals and showed strong marking presence.
Peter Wright: Kicked two goals and provided a target up forward with nine disposals.
Jacob Farrow: Contributed across the ground with 14 disposals and two goals.
Archie Perkins: Added two goals and five inside-50s in a busy display.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The Match Bombcard selections missed the mark across the board in the latest outing. The heavy margin meant most player props and team totals came up short, but the honest assessment is that the model simply got the contest wrong rather than any single selection letting the card down.

Outlook / What to Watch

Essendon Bombers will look to tighten their defensive structure and generate more forward entries when they next take the field. Expect a focus on contested ball work and reducing turnovers to keep the scoring opportunities closer to even.

ESS

vs

GEE

Aug 8 4:35pm ·GMHBA Stadium ·Round 22

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🧠 Match Preview

Essendon Bombers head to GMHBA Stadium in Round 22 facing a daunting task against Geelong Cats, a venue where the home side has long thrived. With both teams carrying distinct momentum into the contest, the match offers a clear test of whether Essendon can arrest a concerning slide or if Geelong will extend their strong recent run. Essendon’s last five outings reveal a side under significant pressure. They have managed just one victory, a narrow three-point win, while suffering four defeats by an average margin of 80.5 points. Their scoring has been inconsistent, rarely exceeding 73 points, while defensive vulnerabilities have seen them concede 117 or more on three occasions. In contrast, Geelong enter with three wins from their past five, including victories by 27, 20 and 25 points. Although they suffered two narrow losses, their ability to post scores above 100 in three of those matches highlights a more potent and reliable attack. Statistically the gap is pronounced. Essendon average 69 points scored and 107 conceded per game, creating a negative differential of 38.2. Geelong average 99 points for and 84.5 against, producing a positive differential of 14.55. These figures align with recent margins, where Essendon’s heavy defeats contrast sharply with Geelong’s capacity to control games through sustained scoring bursts. Key to the outcome will be how Essendon’s undermanned midfield and forward line handle Geelong’s structured ball movement. Without consistent forward pressure, Essendon have struggled to limit opposition transitions, a trend that could prove costly at a venue favouring the home team’s style. Betting markets reflect the disparity, installing Geelong as 64.5-point favourites. Given Essendon’s average losing margin of 80.5 points in defeats this season and Geelong’s recent winning margins averaging 24 points, the line appears generous for those considering the home side. The total market sits at 183.5, yet both teams’ recent scoring trends suggest a higher output is possible if Geelong dictate tempo early. Geelong Cats are expected to win by 45 to 60 points, continuing their strong home form while Essendon search for answers to their defensive and scoring issues.

✏️ Game Analysis

Essendon Bombers travel to face Geelong Cats in a matchup where home dominance meets poor away form. This sets up a scenario where Geelong is positioned to dominate. The approved Over 113.5 for Geelong Cats directly supports this projection, carrying a True 75% and 5% Edge at odds of 1.84. Such a team total call aligns with expectations of Geelong exceeding that mark through sustained pressure and scoring opportunities against an Essendon side struggling to compete. The play reinforces a game shape featuring a substantial margin, with Geelong controlling proceedings from the outset and building a commanding lead. Bettors backing this line benefit from the alignment between the statistical edge and the on-field dynamics favoring the home team.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Geelong Cats have seized complete control after the opening term, leading Essendon Bombers 29-4 at quarter time. The home side kicked four goals to none, with Oliver Dempsey and Shannon Neale prominent in attack while Essendon managed only behinds. Geelong’s structured ball movement and forward pressure have restricted Essendon to minimal entries, exposing the visitors’ lack of midfield depth. Essendon’s recent form suggests they struggle to arrest momentum once falling behind early, and this quarter aligns with that pattern. From a betting perspective, the 25-point margin already places Geelong in a strong position relative to the full-game line of -64.5. The low-scoring nature so far keeps the total market in play, though Geelong’s efficiency hints at an increase in scoring rate. Essendon will need significant adjustments at the first break to stem the flow, yet their historical margins in defeats indicate limited capacity to do so. The outlook favours continued Geelong dominance through the middle two quarters.

Probabilities

68-78

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Strong lean to Geelong Cats -64.5 covering at 1.95 (Bet Right)

52-62

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 183.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

58-68

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Geelong Cats -32.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

53-63

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 91.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers

Under

Strong lean to Essendon Bombers Under 59.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Geelong Cats

Under

Lean to Geelong Cats Under 123.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

Geelong Cats have delivered a ruthless first-half performance at GMHBA Stadium, leading Essendon Bombers 69-16 at the main break. The home side piled on 10 goals to two, with Oliver Dempsey and Oliver Henry combining for six majors in a display of clinical finishing and midfield control. Essendon managed just two goals from 28 inside-50 entries and have been unable to generate any sustained pressure, conceding 53 points in the process. The statistical gap is stark: Geelong average 99 points per game this season while Essendon concede 107. At halftime, the margin already sits at 53 points. From a betting perspective, the full-game spread of 64.5 looks precarious for Essendon, while the total of 184.5 remains live given Geelong’s scoring rate. Essendon’s inability to score or defend transition suggests the second half will be played largely on Geelong’s terms unless a dramatic shift in intensity occurs.

Probabilities

62-68%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Strong lean to Essendon Bombers +64.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

55-61%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 184.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

58-64%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Essendon Bombers +32.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

53-59%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 91.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers

Under

Very Strong lean to Essendon Bombers Under 59.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Geelong Cats

Over

Strong lean to Geelong Cats Over 123.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Geelong lead Essendon 89-43 at GMHBA Stadium. The home side has controlled the contest from the opening minutes, booting nine goals to one in the second quarter to establish a 46-point buffer. Essendon have shown brief resistance in the third term but remain unable to generate sustained forward entries or limit Geelong’s transition. Geelong’s forward line, led by Oliver Henry and Oliver Dempsey, has been clinical while Essendon’s midfield has been overwhelmed. The 132-point total to date sits well below the 183.5 line, yet Geelong’s scoring rate suggests they can push the game total higher if they maintain tempo. From a betting perspective the 64.5-point spread remains live with one quarter remaining, while Essendon’s 43 points already place them in a strong position relative to several unders lines. Momentum heavily favours the Cats, who have dictated every phase of play. Expect Geelong to continue attacking and Essendon to struggle for answers in the final term.

Probabilities

38-48

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Essendon Bombers +64.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

42-52

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 183.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

35-45

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Essendon Bombers +32.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

48-58

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 91.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers

under

Extremely Strong lean to Essendon Bombers Under 59.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Geelong Cats

over

Strong lean to Geelong Cats Over 123.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 113.5 (Geelong Cats) Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	113.5	1.84	75.0%	5.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 113.5 (Geelong Cats) Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	113.5	1.84	75.0%	5.0%	T2	2.5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

GMHBA Stadium MATCHCAST -
GMHBA Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
ESS Essendon Bombers
GEE Geelong Cats

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Bombers were beaten by 67 points, finishing with 7 goals and 8 behinds for 50 points while the visitors piled on 17 goals and 15 behinds for 117. They trailed heavily after the first half and could not close the gap despite a more even final term. The opposition’s top goal scorers included bags of four, while their best performer dominated with 20 disposals and multiple score involvements.

Season Story So Far

One win in the last five outings has left the side searching for consistency. Heavy defeats have been common, though a narrow victory at home showed flashes of what the group can produce when they control the contest.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder position is unavailable from current data, but the points and percentage reflect a season of struggle. The side has conceded far more than they have scored, leaving them well behind the top half of the competition.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 17: Loss to St Kilda Saints
Round 18: Loss to Brisbane Lions
Round 19: Win against Greater Western Sydney Giants
Round 20: Loss to Hawthorn Hawks
Round 21: Loss to Adelaide Crows

The form line shows one bright spot amid four defeats.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has struggled to cover spreads in most outings and totals have rarely gone over when they are involved. Their only recent win came as underdogs, but overall results have not aligned with betting expectations.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been limited and conversion remains an issue. Zach Merrett continues to lead the midfield with strong disposal numbers and tackle counts, while the forward line has relied on a small group to provide scoring threat. Defensive work rate has been tested heavily in recent weeks.

Player Highlights

Zach Merrett: 28 disposals, 7 tackles and 6 clearances in the latest outing.
Peter Wright: 6 goals and 17 disposals across recent matches.
Nate Caddy: Multiple goal hauls and strong contested marking.
Archie Perkins: 11 disposals and 2 goals in his most recent appearance.
Jacob Farrow: 14 disposals and 2 goals showing promise in defence.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No betting card data was provided this round, so nothing to review. The team’s narrow win earlier in the stretch was the only positive result to lean on.

Outlook / What to Watch

No upcoming match is listed in the provided data. The focus remains on building from the one recent victory and improving contested ball and forward efficiency for the remainder of the season.

ADE

vs

ESS

Aug 2 4:40pm ·Marvel Stadium ·Round 21

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2 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Adelaide Crows head to Marvel Stadium for round 21 with a clear opportunity to strengthen their position, while Essendon Bombers face another stern examination of their defensive structure. The contrast in recent momentum sets up an intriguing clash between a side showing genuine scoring potency and one struggling to contain opposition attacks. Adelaide enter with three wins from their past five outings, demonstrating an ability to put pressure on opponents through sustained forward pressure. Their results show victories by 25, 79 and 16 points alongside losses by 26 and 34 points, underlining both attacking threat and occasional vulnerability when momentum shifts. Essendon, by contrast, have managed just one win in the same period, with that narrow three-point success overshadowed by four defeats that include margins of 14, 67, 90 and 93 points. Their form has been undermined by repeated collapses, particularly after half-time. Statistically the gap is pronounced. Adelaide average 90.32 points scored and 79.42 conceded across the season, maintaining a positive differential that reflects efficient ball movement and structured defence. Essendon sit well below that benchmark, averaging 68.79 points for and 105.21 against, highlighting persistent issues limiting opposition opportunities inside fifty. Recent scoring averages for Adelaide hover around 90-91 points per game, while Essendon have dipped below 70 in their last five, suggesting the visitors hold a significant edge in both attack and transition. The betting market reflects these trends, with Adelaide installed as heavy favourites at a 45.5-point line across multiple agencies. Given Adelaide’s recent margins in victory and Essendon’s repeated heavy concessions, the spread looks achievable for the Crows. The total line sits at 172.5, yet Adelaide’s controlled scoring and Essendon’s defensive leaks point toward a higher-scoring affair that could test the over. Key match-ups will centre on Adelaide’s ability to exploit space through the midfield and Essendon’s need to tighten their defensive zone. Without significant changes to personnel or tactics, the visitors appear better equipped to dictate tempo. Adelaide Crows are expected to prevail by 40 to 55 points in a result that should see them cover the spread comfortably.

✏️ Game Analysis

Adelaide Crows host Essendon Bombers with the approved lines shaping a tight, low-output projection for the visitors. Essendon Bombers +40.5 at True 22% and Edge -5% pairs directly with Over 16.5 Essendon Bombers at True 32% and Edge -4%. Together the plays reinforce a game shape where Essendon keeps the margin inside the spread while clearing the modest team total. The spread call limits blowout risk and the team total anchors the floor, locking both sides into the same contained outcome. No other angles are supported by the approved plays.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Adelaide Crows have seized complete control after the opening term, leading Essendon Bombers 44-19 at quarter time. The visitors kicked seven goals to three, with Riley Thilthorpe finishing with three majors and a host of contributors adding to the tally. Essendon managed only one behind after their early burst, highlighting immediate structural issues. Adelaide’s forward pressure and clean ball movement created repeated entries, while Essendon’s defensive zone was repeatedly breached. Momentum sits firmly with the Crows, who have already covered several first-quarter betting lines. From a football perspective, Adelaide’s structured attack and ability to rotate through multiple scorers expose Essendon’s inability to adjust mid-term. Betting markets reflect this dominance: the full-game spread of Adelaide -40.5 remains live, but early evidence suggests the Crows are well positioned to extend their advantage. The total has already cleared the Q1 over line comfortably. Outlook favours continued Adelaide control, with probability assessments leaning toward the visitors covering the full-game margin and exceeding team-total benchmarks. Key takeaway: Adelaide’s first-quarter efficiency sets up a strong platform to dictate the contest, placing Essendon under sustained pressure to stem the flow.

Probabilities

62-72%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Adelaide Crows -40.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

55-65%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 177.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

60-70%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Adelaide Crows -19.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

58-68%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 87.5 at 1.82 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Adelaide Crows

Over

Lean to Adelaide Crows Over 108.5 at 2.10 (TAB)

Essendon Bombers

Under

Lean to Essendon Bombers Under 67.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Adelaide Crows lead Essendon Bombers 66-33 after a dominant opening half at Marvel Stadium. The visitors kicked eight of the last ten goals, with Riley Thilthorpe (three goals) and Izak Rankine (two) providing the forward threat while Essendon managed only two goals after quarter time. Adelaide’s midfield control and forward pressure have restricted Essendon’s transition, leaving the home side chasing the game. Momentum sits firmly with the Crows, who have won the contested ball and inside-50 count convincingly. From a betting perspective the 33-point margin leaves Adelaide needing just an eight-point second-half advantage to cover the -40.5 line. The total sits at 99 with the over 177.5 still live given both teams’ scoring rates. Essendon must lift intensity immediately or risk the margin blowing out further.

Probabilities

52-58

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Adelaide Crows -40.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

48-54

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Over 177.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

55-62

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Adelaide Crows -19.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

51-57

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Over 86.5 at 1.87 (Neds)

Team Totals

Adelaide Crows

Over

Strong lean to Adelaide Crows Over 108.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Essendon Bombers

Under

Lean to Essendon Bombers Under 67.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Adelaide Crows hold a commanding 97-47 lead at three-quarter time after a dominant third quarter that yielded 31 points to Essendon’s 14. The Crows have controlled the contest through superior forward pressure and clean ball movement, with Riley Thilthorpe and Taylor Walker combining for multiple goals. Essendon’s defensive structure has again faltered after half-time, allowing Adelaide to extend a 33-point half-time advantage into a 50-point buffer. The visitors have already amassed 15 goals and look poised to push toward 130-plus by the final siren. From a betting perspective, Adelaide’s current margin and scoring trajectory place them in a strong position relative to the -40.5 line. The total sits at 144, leaving the Over 177.5 line requiring an unusually high final quarter. Essendon’s inability to stem the flow suggests the Crows will continue to dictate terms in the last term.

Probabilities

82-90%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Very Strong lean to Adelaide Crows -40.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

68-76%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Strong lean to Under 177.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

78-86%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Very Strong lean to Adelaide Crows -21.5 covering at 1.85 (TABtouch)

62-70%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 88.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Adelaide Crows

Over

Extremely Strong lean to Adelaide Crows Over 108.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Essendon Bombers

Under

Strong lean to Essendon Bombers Under 67.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 16.5 (Essendon Bombers) Adelaide Crows vs Essendon Bombers	1Q Team Totals	SportsBet	16.5	1.88	32.0%	-4.0%	T1	1u	W
Essendon Bombers +40.5 Adelaide Crows vs Essendon Bombers	Full Spreads	SportsBet	40.5	1.89	22.0%	-5.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Essendon Bombers +40.5 Adelaide Crows vs Essendon Bombers	Full Spreads	SportsBet	40.5	1.89	22.0%	-5.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 16.5 (Essendon Bombers) Adelaide Crows vs Essendon Bombers	1Q Team Totals	SportsBet	16.5	1.88	32.0%	-4.0%	T1	1u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -
Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
ADE Adelaide Crows
ESS Essendon Bombers

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Bombers finished with 11 goals and 7 behinds for 73 points, falling short of the opposition who posted 23 goals and 7 behinds for 145 points in a 72-point loss. The visitors led at every change, extending a 33-point halftime advantage into a 50-point margin by three-quarter time before the final quarter saw the opposition add another eight goals. The opposition’s top goal scorer finished with a bag of five, while their best performer dominated with 15 disposals and nine score involvements.

Season Story So Far

The latest result continues a challenging run where the side has struggled to match opposition output across all quarters. Heavy defeats have become a recurring theme, with the team unable to build on promising individual efforts amid consistent scoreboard pressure from visitors.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Ladder details are not available in the current data set. Points for and against reflect a season where the team has conceded significantly more than it has scored, impacting overall percentage and standing.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 17: Lost to St Kilda Saints 50-117
Round 18: Lost to Brisbane Lions 59-149
Round 19: Defeated Greater Western Sydney Giants 67-64
Round 20: Lost to Hawthorn Hawks 39-132
Round 21: Lost to Adelaide Crows 73-145

One win in the last five highlights the inconsistency across the stretch.

Betting Trends & Performance

With no betting data provided, performance trends show the side has been outscored heavily in recent outings, particularly in the second halves where opposition momentum has proven difficult to arrest.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Attack has relied on a small group of forwards generating the majority of scoring shots, while defensive efforts have been stretched by high inside-50 counts from opponents. Disposal winners have worked hard in the middle but have been unable to limit opposition transitions.

Player Highlights

Peter Wright: 6 goals and 17 disposals in the latest outing, providing a focal point up forward.
Zach Merrett: Consistent 28 disposals and strong contested possession numbers across recent games.
Nate Caddy: Multiple goal hauls in the last five, showing promise with contested marks.
Nick Bryan: Strong ruck work with 31 hitouts in one win, setting up midfield drive.
Jacob Farrow: 20 disposals and two goals in a standout performance.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No betting card data available this round. The absence leaves no opportunity to assess selections, though the team’s sole recent win offers a small positive note amid heavier defeats.

Outlook / What to Watch

Essendon Bombers will need to tighten their defensive structure and improve second-half output heading into the next phase of the season. Focus remains on building cohesion and limiting opposition scoring opportunities at Marvel Stadium.

ESS

vs

HAW

Jul 25 4:15pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 20

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1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Essendon’s trip to the MCG to face Hawthorn looms as a stern examination of their 2026 campaign. With Round 20 offering little margin for error, the Bombers arrive under significant pressure after a run of inconsistent results. Essendon’s recent form has been fragile. Across their past five outings they have secured just one victory, with heavy defeats interspersed by narrow escapes. Their scoring has been limited, averaging 70 points per game while conceding 104. The pattern of large margins against them highlights ongoing issues containing opposition momentum, although a narrow win in their most recent fixture offered brief respite. Hawthorn, by contrast, enter the contest with strong momentum. Four wins from their last five matches have been built on an efficient attack and improved defensive structure. They are averaging 98 points scored and 83 conceded, regularly establishing leads through strong second and third-quarter bursts. Their ability to convert opportunities into scoreboard pressure has been a consistent feature. Statistically the gap is clear. Essendon’s low scoring output and high concession rate suggest they are struggling to control games, while Hawthorn’s balanced numbers point to greater consistency across quarters. Margin trends reinforce this: Essendon’s defeats have frequently exceeded 40 points, whereas Hawthorn’s wins have often been decided by double-digit margins even when challenged. Betting markets reflect the disparity, installing Hawthorn as 53.5- to 54.5-point favourites. The line aligns closely with recent performance gaps. Hawthorn’s capacity to win by wider margins in several outings suggests they are well placed to cover, particularly if Essendon’s early resistance fades as it has in prior weeks. The total points line sits around 169, a figure both sides have approached or exceeded in high-scoring games this season. Hawthorn are expected to dictate terms and should prevail by 45 to 60 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Essendon Bombers face Hawthorn Hawks where the approved Over 111.5 for Hawthorn Hawks at True 75% with an 8% Edge sets the projected game shape. This team total reinforces sustained scoring output from the Hawks against the Bombers. The probability and edge metrics align with Hawthorn Hawks building points through efficient accumulation that exceeds the threshold. Essendon Bombers may contest possession but the line call indicates their resistance fails to cap the Hawks' total. The same projection supports continued pressure and scoring flow from Hawthorn Hawks across the contest. This betting angle remains consistent without deviation from the core team total expectation.

⚡Quarter Time Report

At quarter time Hawthorn Hawks lead Essendon Bombers 23-15 after a high-quality opening term at the MCG. The Hawks kicked three goals to two and added five behinds, establishing an eight-point buffer through superior forward craft. Will Day’s two majors and Jack Ginnivan’s finishing were decisive, while Essendon managed only two goals from Peter Wright and Nate Caddy despite early behinds from Durham and Kako. Hawthorn’s structure and ball movement looked sharper, converting entries more efficiently and restricting Essendon’s transition. Momentum sits clearly with the home side, who have already shown the second-quarter bursts that defined their recent form. From a betting perspective the full-game spread markets have Hawthorn well positioned, while the total remains on track for a moderate scoring game. Essendon’s low output in the first term raises questions about whether they can stay competitive over four quarters. Hawthorn’s early control suggests they will look to extend the margin in the second term, putting pressure on Essendon’s defensive structure before half-time.

Probabilities

62-72%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -56.5 covering at 1.89 (TABtouch)

48-58%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 172.5 at 1.88 (Ladbrokes)

60-70%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -28.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)

52-62%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 87.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers

under

Lean to Under 56.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)

Hawthorn Hawks

over

Lean to Over 117.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Hawthorn lead Essendon 62-17 after a dominant opening half at the MCG. The Hawks kicked nine goals to two, establishing a 45-point buffer through superior ball movement and forward pressure. Essendon managed just two goals, both in the first term, and have been starved of opportunities since. Hawthorn’s second-quarter surge, featuring three goals from Jack Gunston, highlighted the mismatch in midfield control and defensive structure. Essendon’s inability to generate repeat entries or defensive stops has left them with minimal momentum. From a betting perspective the margin has already blown past most halftime spreads, while the total score of 79 sits just below the 84.5-87.5 half totals. Hawthorn’s 62 points already place them in strong position for their full-game team total lines. Essendon’s low output keeps their unders live but under pressure. The second half is likely to see Hawthorn maintain tempo rather than risk complacency, while Essendon must find a way to stem the flow or risk another heavy quarter. Markets reflect the one-sided contest, with Hawthorn heavily favoured to extend the margin and the total trending toward the over.

Probabilities

82-88%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Very Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -58.5 covering at 1.90 (PlayUp)

68-74%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Strong lean to Over 174.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

65-71%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -30.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

62-68%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 87.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers

under

Very Strong lean to Essendon Bombers Under 56.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)

Hawthorn Hawks

over

Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks Over 117.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Hawthorn have delivered a clinical demolition at the MCG, leading 98-24 at three-quarter time after a 36-point second quarter and another 36-point third. Essendon managed just seven points after quarter time and have been completely shut down in transition and at stoppages. The 74-point margin already exceeds the pre-game spread range of 55.5-60.5. Hawthorn’s efficiency has been exceptional, converting 14 goals from 28 scoring shots while Essendon’s attack has produced only three goals. Momentum has been one-way since the opening minutes, with Hawthorn winning every key statistical indicator. From a betting perspective the game is effectively over for most markets. The full-game total sits at 122 points with one quarter remaining, comfortably past the 172.5-176.5 lines. Hawthorn’s team total has already cleared every listed line above 104.5, while Essendon’s 24 points locks in the unders on their 52.5-67.5 lines. Only the spread retains any theoretical movement, though Hawthorn’s dominance suggests further margin growth is likely. Essendon will need an unprecedented final-quarter response simply to reach 50 points.

Probabilities

78-85

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Very Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -60.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

92-97

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Extremely Strong lean to Over 174.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

82-88

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Very Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -30.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

75-82

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Strong lean to Over 87.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers

under

Extremely Strong lean to Under 56.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)

Hawthorn Hawks

over

Extremely Strong lean to Over 117.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 111.5 (Hawthorn Hawks) Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	111.5	1.87	75.0%	8.0%	T3	5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 111.5 (Hawthorn Hawks) Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	111.5	1.87	75.0%	8.0%	T3	5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -
Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
ESS Essendon Bombers
HAW Hawthorn Hawks

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Bombers fell to a heavy 93-point defeat, finishing with 5 goals and 9 behinds for 39 points against the opposition's 19 goals and 18 behinds for 132. The game slipped away early after a competitive opening term, with the visitors managing just 17 points by half time before the opposition piled on further damage. Nate Caddy led the scoring with three goals while Peter Wright added two.

Season Story So Far

A tough stretch of results has left the side searching for consistency. The latest heavy loss caps a period where scoring has been limited and defensive structure tested, with only one win in the past five outings to provide some relief.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder data is not available in the current feed, but the recent results point to a side sitting well down the standings. Points for remain low while points against have climbed sharply, reflecting both attacking struggles and defensive leaks.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 16: lost to North Melbourne Kangaroos 65-79
Round 17: lost to St Kilda Saints 50-117
Round 18: lost to Brisbane Lions 59-149
Round 19: defeated Greater Western Sydney Giants 67-64
Round 20: lost to Hawthorn Hawks 39-132

One win from five shows the challenge in stringing together positive results.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has struggled to cover spreads in most outings, often falling well short when expected totals are high. The narrow win in round 19 was an exception, but overall the results have landed on the wrong side of the line more often than not.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been inconsistent and conversion remains an issue, with the side regularly held under 70 points. Defensively, opposition forwards have been given too much space, leading to high scores conceded. Work rate in the midfield has been solid at times but not enough to stem the flow.

Player Highlights

Zach Merrett: Continues to lead the disposal count, regularly topping 30 touches and providing drive from the engine room.
Nate Caddy: Strong forward presence with multiple goal hauls across recent weeks and strong contested marking.
Peter Wright: Reliable target up forward, kicking multiple goals and providing a focal point inside 50.
Nick Bryan: Dominant in the ruck with high hit-out numbers and strong clearance work.
Sam Durham: Solid contributor through the midfield with strong tackle counts and contested possessions.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No active betting card data available this round. The previous selections missed the mark on several high-scoring games, but the narrow round 19 win showed the side can still produce when structure holds.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no confirmed upcoming fixture in the current data, the focus remains on rebuilding momentum and addressing defensive lapses before the next assignment. Expect emphasis on tighter forward pressure and better ball movement to lift scoring output.

GWS

vs

ESS

Jul 19 4:40pm ·Marvel Stadium ·Round 19

-

1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Greater Western Sydney Giants head to Marvel Stadium in Round 19 looking to extend their recent improvement against a beleaguered Essendon side that has lost its last five matches. The Giants enter with two wins from their past five outings, while the Bombers have shown little sign of turning their season around. GWS recorded narrow losses of eight, 23 and 14 points before responding with victories by 21 and 13 points. Their scoring has stabilised around 86–109 in those games, with the defence tightening noticeably in the wins. Essendon’s form has deteriorated sharply, conceding 95, 79, 117 and 149 points across the last four defeats. Their attack has managed just 50–67 points in four of the five matches, highlighting persistent issues in both halves of the ground. Statistically the contrast is stark. The Giants average 91.59 points scored and 90.18 conceded, producing games that hover near 182 total points. Essendon’s corresponding figures sit at 70.65 for and 106.06 against, a profile that has consistently produced high-scoring losses. Over their past five matches Essendon’s average losing margin exceeds 44 points, while GWS has kept three of its last five opponents under 90. With no major injury clouds reported for either side, the contest will likely hinge on GWS’s ability to control the midfield and limit Essendon’s forward entries. The visitors’ recent ability to win by double-digit margins when scoring above 85 suggests they are well placed to dictate terms. Betting markets have installed GWS as heavy favourites, listing them at -39.5 on the line with odds near even money. That spread aligns closely with Essendon’s recent margins and GWS’s improved defensive numbers. The total market sits at 177.5–178.5, a figure the Giants’ games have exceeded in three of their last five outings. A GWS victory by 40-plus points appears the most probable outcome, though the Bombers’ occasional competitiveness in the first half may keep the quarter-one and half-time spreads interesting for punters. Expect the Giants to win comfortably. A 42-point margin is the most realistic projection given current trajectories.

✏️ Game Analysis

Greater Western Sydney Giants meet Essendon Bombers with the contest shaped around restricting the Bombers output. The approved Under 69.5 Essendon Bombers team total at True 65% and 5% edge directly supports this projection. GWS attack pressure limits Essendon entries and forces errors, keeping the Bombers scoring sequence short. The line reinforces a low-volume game where Essendon fails to reach the total as GWS controls tempo and denies forward momentum. This team total call captures the expected shape without deviation, locking in the under as the primary outcome for the match.

⚡Quarter Time Report

After a cagey opening term at Marvel Stadium, Essendon holds a slender 16-15 lead over Greater Western Sydney at quarter time. Both sides kicked two goals, with Toby Greene’s double for the Giants matched by Zach Merrett and Dyson Sharp for the Bombers. Behind accuracy kept the margin to a single point in a low-scoring, physical contest that produced just 31 points overall. Pre-game markets had installed GWS as 39-point favourites, yet the visitors have so far been unable to impose their usual midfield control or transition speed. Essendon’s defensive structure restricted forward entries effectively, while the Giants’ inaccuracy in front of goal (three behinds) prevented them from building scoreboard pressure. From a betting perspective the first-quarter spreads_q1 lines around 9.5 proved volatile, with the result landing near the middle of those margins. Momentum remains with the underdogs early, though the Giants’ superior depth and recent form suggest they will lift output once adjustments are made. The low total of 31 points sits well under every totals_q1 line, keeping full-game overs still very much alive. Expect GWS to increase intensity in the second term and begin to stretch the margin toward their pre-game projection.

Probabilities

62-68%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Greater Western Sydney Giants -39.5 covering at 2.00 (Bet Right)

48-54%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Over 181.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

58-64%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Greater Western Sydney Giants -18.5 covering at 1.87 (PointsBet (AU))

51-57%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Over 90.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Greater Western Sydney Giants

Under

Lean to Under 109.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Essendon Bombers

Under

Lean to Under 69.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Essendon leads Greater Western Sydney 24-21 in a low-scoring, error-strewn contest at Marvel Stadium. The first half produced just three goals apiece and 27 behinds, leaving the total at 45 points, well below market expectations. Essendon’s three majors came from Sharp, Merrett and Bryan, while Toby Greene’s two goals kept GWS in touch. Both teams have struggled to convert forward entries, with GWS particularly wasteful from set shots. Momentum sits with neither side; the Giants have dominated possession yet trail by three points, highlighting their inefficiency inside 50. Essendon’s defensive structure has restricted GWS to two goals but has itself managed only three. The low output suggests both teams are prioritising contested ball and denying space rather than risking turnovers. From a betting perspective the under on the full-game total has already banked significant value. The spread remains live, with GWS still needing to overcome a 39.5-point deficit over the next two quarters. Second-half markets will likely tighten around a more open period as both sides chase the contest. Key takeaway: the game is tracking well under projected scoring rates, giving the unders a strong platform while the margin remains fluid.

Probabilities

48-55

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Greater Western Sydney Giants -39.5 covering at 2.00 (Bet Right)

72-78

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Strong lean to Under 181.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

51-57

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Greater Western Sydney Giants -18.5 covering at 1.91 (Ladbrokes)

48-54

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Over 90.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Greater Western Sydney Giants

under

Strong lean to Greater Western Sydney Giants Under 109.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Essendon Bombers

under

Strong lean to Essendon Bombers Under 69.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Essendon holds a slender 48-42 lead at three-quarter time in a low-scoring contest at Marvel Stadium. The Bombers kicked four goals in the third term to establish a buffer after a scrappy first half that produced just 45 points. GWS has been wasteful, registering 12 behinds, and has managed only two goals since quarter time. The Giants trail the pace on both ends, averaging under 30 points per quarter. Essendon’s efficiency in front of goal (7.6) has been the difference, though both sides have struggled to generate sustained entries. From a betting perspective the total has lagged well behind the 180.5 line, yet the third-quarter surge suggests scoring may lift in the final term. GWS must produce a dramatic turnaround to threaten the -39.5 line, while Essendon’s 48 points already place their team total well on course to eclipse 69.5. Momentum sits with the home side, but the low overall output keeps the game within reach if GWS can find targets.

Probabilities

82-88%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Essendon Bombers +39.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)

65-72%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Over 181.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

68-74%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Essendon Bombers +19.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

58-64%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Over 90.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Greater Western Sydney Giants

Under

Lean to Greater Western Sydney Giants Under 109.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Essendon Bombers

Over

Very Strong lean to Essendon Bombers Over 69.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Under 69.5 (Essendon Bombers) Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Essendon Bombers	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	69.5	1.90	65.0%	5.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Under 69.5 (Essendon Bombers) Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Essendon Bombers	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	69.5	1.90	65.0%	5.0%	T2	2.5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -
Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
GWS Greater Western Sydney Giants
ESS Essendon Bombers

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The side fell short in a tight contest, finishing with 10 goals and 7 behinds for 67 points against the opposition’s 8 goals and 16 behinds for 64. After a low-scoring opening term (16-15), the visitors edged ahead by half time. A strong third quarter lifted the home team into the lead, but the opposition mounted a late challenge before falling three points short. Nick Bryan and Jacob Farrow kicked two goals apiece for the winners, while the opposition’s best performer finished with two goals and strong inside work.

Season Story So Far

The latest result delivered a much-needed win after a difficult run, snapping a five-game losing streak. The performance showed improved efficiency in front of goal and better contested ball work, though scoring consistency remains a work in progress.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With ladder data currently unavailable, the numbers from recent matches show a mixed points differential. The side has scored competitively in patches but conceded heavily in several outings, leaving percentage as a key area to improve over the coming rounds.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 13: Lost to Carlton Blues 67-72
Round 14: Lost to Melbourne Demons 50-95
Round 16: Lost to North Melbourne Kangaroos 65-79
Round 17: Lost to St Kilda Saints 50-117
Round 18: Lost to Brisbane Lions 59-149

Five straight defeats preceded the latest victory, highlighting the need for greater consistency across four quarters.

Betting Trends & Performance

Results have been unpredictable on the spread, with several heavy losses inflating margins. Totals have tended lower in tighter games but ballooned when the side struggled to contain opposition forwards. Clean data on recent spreads is limited.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Attack has relied on a handful of contributors stepping up inside 50, with strong contested marking from key targets. Defensively, the side has worked hard at the contest but been exposed on turnover, allowing opponents easy entries. Disposal efficiency and tackle pressure have been bright spots in patches.

Player Highlights

Zach Merrett: 35 disposals and strong clearance work in the latest win.
Nick Bryan: 17 disposals, 31 hitouts and two goals from the ruck.
Jacob Farrow: 20 disposals and two goals in a promising display.
Ben McKay: Consistent marking and rebound from defence across recent weeks.
Nate Caddy: Two goals and strong forward pressure in multiple outings.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No betting card data was provided for review. Without a card to assess, there are no wins or misses to own up to this round.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no upcoming match data available, focus remains on building from the narrow win and tightening defensive structures ahead of the next fixture.

ESS

vs

BRI

Jul 12 4:40pm ·Gabba ·Round 18

-

3 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Essendon Bombers travel to the Gabba to face Brisbane Lions in Round 18, a contest that pits the competition’s most improved side against a visitor enduring a prolonged slump. Brisbane enter the match with four wins from their past five outings, while Essendon have lost all five, conceding an average of 103.38 points per game across that stretch. Essendon’s recent scoring has been limited, averaging just 71.38 points for while allowing 103.38 against. Their margins tell the story: defeats by 30, 5, 45, 14 and 67 points, producing an average losing margin of 32.2 points. The Bombers have failed to reach 70 points in three of those five matches, highlighting persistent issues converting forward entries and maintaining structure under pressure. Brisbane, by contrast, have averaged 104.63 points for and 93.63 against over their last five. After an early loss by 25 points, they have posted wins by 31, 35, 43 and 22 points, demonstrating both offensive firepower and improved defensive organisation. Their ability to score heavily at home—three of the past four victories came with totals above 195—positions them well for another high-output performance at the Gabba. Statistically, the gap is stark. Brisbane’s season-long scoring average sits 33 points clear of Essendon’s, while their defensive record is 10 points tighter. Essendon’s recent games have produced an average total of 174 points, well below the current market line of 187.5, suggesting the total may be vulnerable if Brisbane dictate tempo early. Betting markets reflect the disparity, installing Brisbane as 61.5- to 62.5-point favourites. Given Essendon’s average losing margin of 32 points on the road and Brisbane’s home scoring rate above 120 points in three of their past four wins, the line appears generous. A Brisbane victory by 40 to 55 points represents the most probable outcome, with the home side’s superior ball movement and forward pressure likely to stretch Essendon’s depleted defence across four quarters.

✏️ Game Analysis

Brisbane Lions face Essendon Bombers at the Gabba with multiple betting angles pointing to a heavy home victory. The Brisbane Lions -62.5 line at True 82% and Edge 4% signals expected dominance well beyond a six-goal margin. Supporting this, the Over 124.5 Brisbane Lions team total at True 78% and Edge 5% projects a high-scoring output from the hosts. The Brisbane Lions -33.5 first-quarter line at True 75% and Edge 3% further reinforces an early lead that extends throughout the match. Together these wagers shape a contest where Brisbane controls proceedings from the opening bounce, overwhelming Essendon across all quarters.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Brisbane Lions have seized complete control after the opening term, piling on 5.6 (36) to Essendon’s solitary 0.3 (3). The home side’s forward pressure and clean ball movement produced four goals inside the first 21 minutes, while Essendon managed only behinds and failed to register a single major. Brisbane’s midfield dominance and transition speed have already created a 33-point buffer that places immediate pressure on Essendon’s structure. Essendon’s inability to convert entries or win clearances has left them chasing shadows at the Gabba. From a betting perspective, Brisbane’s early surge has shifted momentum decisively toward covering large margins and pushing the total upward. The Bombers’ recent form of conceding heavy scores suggests they will struggle to arrest the deficit over the remaining three quarters. Brisbane’s home scoring rate and forward efficiency point to continued accumulation, while Essendon’s low output keeps their totals under pressure. Expect the Lions to dictate tempo and further extend their advantage heading into the second term.

Probabilities

72-78

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Strong lean to Brisbane Lions -62.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

58-64

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Over 187.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

65-71

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Brisbane Lions -34.5 covering at 1.89 (Unibet)

60-66

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Over 91.5 at 1.85 (Neds)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers

Under

Strong lean to Essendon Bombers Under 61.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Brisbane Lions

Over

Lean to Brisbane Lions Over 123.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

Brisbane Lions have taken complete control at the Gabba, leading Essendon 64-12 at halftime after a dominant opening half. The Lions piled on nine goals to one, with Kai Lohmann (three goals) and Will Ashcroft starring in a first-half blitz that saw Brisbane score 40 points in the opening term alone. Essendon’s attack has been stifled, managing just one goal and six behinds while struggling to generate forward entries against Brisbane’s intense pressure. Momentum sits heavily with the home side, who have restricted the Bombers to their lowest half-time score of the season. Brisbane’s midfield dominance and forward efficiency have created a 52-point buffer that already exceeds typical Essendon scoring rates. From a betting standpoint, Brisbane’s 64 points at the break makes several full-game unders on their team total look vulnerable, while the total points line of 187.5 remains live given the expected second-half scoring. The game state suggests Brisbane will continue to dictate terms, but Essendon’s desperation may produce some resistance after the long break.

Probabilities

48-55

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Brisbane Lions -62.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

52-58

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Over 187.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

55-62

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Brisbane Lions -30.5 covering at 1.94 (Neds)

48-54

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Over 93.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers

Under

Lean to Under 60.5 at 1.89 (Unibet)

Brisbane Lions

Over

Strong lean to Over 124.5 at 1.89 (Unibet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Brisbane Lions lead 110-15 at three-quarter time after a ruthless display at the Gabba. The home side piled on 16 goals to just one from Essendon, establishing a 95-point margin that has already surpassed every spread line on offer. Brisbane’s forward entries have been clinical, with Kai Lohmann, Logan Morris and Eric Hipwood each contributing multiple scores while Essendon’s ball movement has completely broken down. The contest is effectively over as a spectacle, yet the betting picture remains active. Brisbane’s 110 already exceeds the 124.5 team-total line, while the game total sits at 125 against a 187.5 market. Essendon’s scoring rate suggests they will finish well under 50 points. With one quarter remaining, Brisbane’s dominance points to further margin growth and a likely total finish between 155-170. The only remaining value lies in locking in the already-covered spread and the strong under on the game total.

Probabilities

92-98

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Extremely Strong lean to Brisbane Lions -62.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

85-92

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Very Strong lean to Under 187.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

78-85

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Strong lean to Brisbane Lions -30.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

65-75

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 93.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers

Under

Extremely Strong lean to Under 60.5 at 1.89 (Unibet)

Brisbane Lions

Over

Extremely Strong lean to Over 124.5 at 1.89 (Unibet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Brisbane Lions -62.5 Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions	Full Spreads	TABtouch	-63.5	1.89	82.0%	4.0%	T3	5u	W
Over 124.5 (Brisbane Lions) Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions	Full Team Totals	Unibet	124.5	1.85	78.0%	5.0%	T2	2.5u	W
Brisbane Lions -33.5 Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions	1H Spreads	TAB	-32.5	1.90	75.0%	3.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Brisbane Lions -62.5 Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions	Full Spreads	TABtouch	-63.5	1.89	82.0%	4.0%	T3	5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 124.5 (Brisbane Lions) Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions	Full Team Totals	Unibet	124.5	1.85	78.0%	5.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Brisbane Lions -33.5 Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions	1H Spreads	TAB	-32.5	1.90	75.0%	3.0%	T1	1u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Gabba MATCHCAST -
Gabba MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
ESS Essendon Bombers
BRI Brisbane Lions

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Bombers fell short by 90 points, finishing with 8 goals and 11 behinds for 59 points against the opposition’s 22 goals and 17 behinds for 149. The visitors struggled to find momentum after a low-scoring first half and could not close the gap in the second. Peter Wright led the scoring with three goals, while Nate Caddy added two. The opposition’s best performer kicked three goals and was influential across the ground.

Season Story So Far

With the latest result extending a difficult run, the side sits at a challenging point in the campaign. A string of losses has tested the group’s depth and consistency, though individual efforts continue to provide some positives amid the broader struggles.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder position and points are not currently available from the data. The team’s percentage and points for/against reflect the impact of recent heavy defeats, placing pressure on the group to arrest the slide and improve differentials in upcoming weeks.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 13: Lost to Carlton Blues
Round 14: Lost to Melbourne Demons
Round 16: Lost to North Melbourne Kangaroos
Round 17: Lost to St Kilda Saints
Round 18: Lost to Brisbane Lions

The form line shows five straight defeats, underlining the need for a reset.

Betting Trends & Performance

Performance against the spread and totals has been tough to back consistently, with the side often falling well short of projected margins in recent outings. Overs have been difficult to land given the low scoring outputs in several matches.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Attack has relied heavily on a small group of contributors, with limited spread of goal scorers across games. Defensively, the side has conceded heavily in the second halves of several contests, allowing opponents to build momentum through the midfield. Inside-50 entries and tackle counts have varied, but converting opportunities remains a clear area for improvement.

Player Highlights

Zach Merrett: Continues to lead the midfield with high disposal counts, often exceeding 25 touches and providing drive from the contest.
Nate Caddy: Strong forward presence with multiple goal hauls and solid contested marking work.
Peter Wright: Delivered a standout bag of three goals in the latest outing and remains a focal point up forward.
Ben McKay: Provides key defensive structure and has chipped in with occasional goals from the backline.
Will Setterfield: Strong ball-winner through the middle with high disposal and clearance numbers in recent weeks.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The Match Bombcard selections struggled across the last five rounds, with several tips missing the mark on margins and player props. We own the misses and note the need to tighten criteria around contested possessions and forward entries for future cards.

Outlook / What to Watch

Essendon Bombers will look to build cohesion and lift their scoring output in the next assignment. Focus will be on midfield control and converting inside-50 opportunities more efficiently to challenge the opposition’s structure.

STK

vs

ESS

Jul 5 3:15pm ·Marvel Stadium ·Round 17

-

2 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

St Kilda Saints head to Marvel Stadium in Round 17 looking to build on a mixed run of results when they meet Essendon Bombers. Both sides enter the contest with plenty to prove, yet the visitors arrive with slightly better recent indicators and a more balanced scoring profile. St Kilda’s last five outings have produced one win and four losses, with results of 74-104, 67-119, 102-104, 96-88 and 61-83. The pattern shows defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in high-scoring defeats, but also the capacity to stay competitive, evidenced by narrow losses of just two and eight-point margins in two of those games. Their season-long averages of 88.93 points scored and 88.40 conceded reflect a side capable of close contests when structure holds. Essendon, by contrast, have endured a tougher stretch, dropping all five of their most recent matches by margins of 18, 30, 5, 45 and 14 points. Their scoring has been limited, averaging just 72.80 points per game while conceding 102.47. The consistent inability to win quarters or establish leads has left them searching for answers heading into this matchup. Statistically the Saints hold the edge in both attack and defence. Their capacity to post totals above 90 points in three of the last five outings contrasts with Essendon’s repeated sub-70 scores. At Marvel Stadium, where scoring can be tighter, St Kilda’s slightly higher efficiency and lower concession rate should prove decisive. From a betting perspective, Essendon’s recent heavy losses suggest they may struggle to cover any meaningful spread. St Kilda’s two closest results indicate they are more likely to keep games within a manageable margin, supporting a line around 12-18 points in their favour. Totals markets have trended under in Essendon’s games, yet St Kilda’s higher-scoring profile could push the combined score toward the middle of recent averages. St Kilda Saints are expected to prevail by 15 to 25 points, using superior ball movement and a more reliable forward structure to pull away in the second half.

✏️ Game Analysis

St Kilda Saints meet Essendon Bombers with the approved plays defining a clear shape. The Under 179.5 total at True 52% and 2% edge projects a controlled contest where neither side breaks the game open. St Kilda Saints Over 50.5 at True 62% and 4% edge sits alongside it, expecting the Saints to post enough while Essendon stays restricted. These lines reinforce each other by pointing to disciplined defence and limited high-scoring bursts across quarters. The outcome keeps the overall total under 179.5 yet allows St Kilda to clear their team total line.

⚡Quarter Time Report

St Kilda Saints have seized early control at Marvel Stadium, leading Essendon Bombers 34-13 after a dominant opening term. The visitors kicked five goals to two, with Rowan Marshall (two goals) and debutant Darcy Wilson setting the tone inside the first minute. Essendon managed responses through Archer Day-Wicks and Peter Wright but were repeatedly turned over in transition, allowing St Kilda to build a 21-point buffer. Scoring was efficient early, with the total already at 47 points. St Kilda’s forward entries and ball movement look superior, while Essendon’s inability to win the contest at stoppages has left them chasing. From a betting lens, St Kilda’s fast start positions them well for the full-game spread around 25.5 points. The total line of 174.5-176.5 remains live given the low-scoring nature of recent Essendon games, yet St Kilda’s higher output suggests the over retains appeal. Essendon’s team total sits well under their 73.5-78.5 lines after just 13 points. Momentum sits firmly with the Saints heading into the second term, where their ability to extend the margin or control tempo will shape the remainder of the contest.

Probabilities

52-58%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to St Kilda Saints -25.5 covering at 1.95 (Betr)

48-54%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Over 174.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

53-59%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to St Kilda Saints -12.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

49-55%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Over 86.5 at 1.87 (Neds)

Team Totals

St Kilda Saints

Over

Lean to Over 100.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Essendon Bombers

Under

Strong lean to Under 73.5 at 1.91 (Unibet)

⚡Halftime Report

St Kilda Saints have delivered a ruthless first-half demolition of Essendon at Marvel Stadium, leading 86-21 at the main break. The visitors kicked 13 goals to three, with multiple contributors including Rowan Marshall, Anthony Caminiti and Jack Higgins all finding the goals. Essendon’s attack has been almost non-existent, managing just three goals and showing no capacity to win contests or transition cleanly. Momentum sits heavily with St Kilda, who have controlled every aspect of the contest. From a betting perspective the full-game total Over 174.5 at 1.90 (TAB) carries a strong lean given the 107 points already scored and St Kilda’s scoring rate. Essendon’s full-game team total sits deep under every listed line, most notably Under 83.5 at 1.42 (Unibet). The Saints’ half-time lead of 65 points also places them in a commanding position for the full-game spread. The second half will likely see St Kilda manage the contest, but the damage to Essendon’s totals is already substantial.

Probabilities

78-86%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Strong lean to St Kilda Saints -25.5 covering at 1.95 (Betr)

72-80%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Strong lean to Over 174.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

62-70%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to St Kilda Saints -12.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

58-66%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Over 86.5 at 1.87 (Neds)

Team Totals

St Kilda Saints

over

Very Strong lean to Over 100.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Essendon Bombers

under

Very Strong lean to Under 73.5 at 1.91 (Unibet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

St Kilda Saints have produced a commanding display at Marvel Stadium, leading Essendon 94-29 at three-quarter time after establishing a 65-point advantage. The visitors scored 13 goals to three in the opening half and added another major in the third term while restricting Essendon to just eight points. Essendon’s inability to generate meaningful forward entries or defensive pressure has allowed St Kilda’s midfield and key forwards to dominate uncontested possession and transition play. From a betting perspective the margin market has long been decided, with St Kilda covering the -25.5 comfortably. The total score sits at 123 and remains on track for the Over 174.5 line given typical final-quarter scoring patterns. Essendon’s team total of 29 points sits well below every Under line offered, while St Kilda’s 94 already exceeds several lower markers and is progressing toward the Over 100.5. With one quarter remaining, momentum heavily favours the Saints maintaining control and adding further scoreboard pressure.

Probabilities

92-97

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Extremely Strong lean to St Kilda Saints -25.5 covering at 1.95 (Betr)

58-64

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Over 174.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

85-91

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS

Very Strong lean to St Kilda Saints -25.5 covering at 1.95 (Betr)

55-61

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Over 86.5 at 1.87 (Neds)

Team Totals

St Kilda Saints

Over

Strong lean to Over 100.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Essendon Bombers

Under

Extremely Strong lean to Under 73.5 at 1.91 (Unibet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 50.5 (St Kilda Saints) St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	50.5	1.83	62.0%	4.0%	T2	2.5u	W
Under 179.5 St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers	Full O/U	TAB	179.5	1.90	52.0%	2.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Under 179.5 St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers	Full O/U	TAB	179.5	1.90	52.0%	2.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 50.5 (St Kilda Saints) St Kilda Saints vs Essendon Bombers	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	50.5	1.83	62.0%	4.0%	T2	2.5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -
Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
STK St Kilda Saints
ESS Essendon Bombers

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Bombers fell to a heavy 67-point defeat, finishing with 7 goals and 8 behinds for 50 points against the opposition's 17 goals and 15 behinds for 117. The visitors controlled the second quarter particularly, adding 13 goals to stretch the lead beyond repair. Archer May and Nate Caddy were the standout performers up forward with multiple goals, while the opposition's Liam Ryan led their scoring effort with two majors.

Season Story So Far

The latest result continues a challenging run where the side has struggled to find consistency across the middle of the season. Heavy losses have highlighted areas needing immediate attention in both attack and defence.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With limited ladder data available, the focus remains on the points differential and percentage. The team has conceded significantly more than they have scored in recent weeks, placing pressure on overall percentage and highlighting the need for improved efficiency in front of goal.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 11: Essendon Bombers 56 def by Richmond Tigers 74
Round 12: Essendon Bombers 55 def by West Coast Eagles 85
Round 13: Essendon Bombers 67 def by Carlton Blues 72
Round 14: Essendon Bombers 50 def by Melbourne Demons 95
Round 16: Essendon Bombers 65 def by North Melbourne Kangaroos 79

A five-game losing streak has tested the squad's depth and resilience.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has consistently gone under the total points line in recent outings, with scoring output remaining well below expectations. Spread results have also been difficult, with margins often exceeding the line against stronger opposition.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Zach Merrett continues to lead the way with high disposal counts and strong contested possession work, while forwards like Nate Caddy and Archer May have shown flashes but lacked consistent support. Defensive efforts have been stretched, with inside-50 entries often turned into opposition opportunities through turnovers.

Player Highlights

Zach Merrett: Averaged over 30 disposals across the last five games with strong clearance work.
Nate Caddy: Multiple goal hauls including three against the opposition in round 17.
Archer May: Three goals and strong contested marking in the latest outing.
Will Setterfield: 34 disposals and seven clearances in round 14.
Sam Durham: 25 disposals and two goals in round 16.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No betting card data was provided this round. The focus stays on developing the young core rather than chasing results on the punt.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no upcoming fixture listed, the Bombers will look to reset and address structural issues in attack and defence. Expect a heavy emphasis on contested ball and reducing turnovers in the next preparation block.

ESS

vs

NOR

Jun 28 3:15pm ·Marvel Stadium ·Round 16

-

2 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Essendon Bombers head to Marvel Stadium in Round 16 facing a North Melbourne Kangaroos side that has shown signs of turning a corner despite inconsistent results. With both teams occupying lower ladder positions, the contest carries significant implications for late-season momentum and draft positioning. Essendon enter the match on a five-game losing streak, surrendering an average of 104 points while managing just 73 of their own across those outings. Their recent margins tell a concerning story: defeats by 43, 18, 30, 5 and 45 points reveal defensive vulnerabilities and an inability to sustain pressure. The Bombers have failed to score 70 points in three of their last five games, highlighting offensive struggles that have left them averaging 28-point losses. North Melbourne present a more balanced, if erratic, profile. They average 87 points scored and 96 conceded, with three wins in their past five matches. Victories by 6, 1 and 25 points sit alongside heavy losses, yet their recent form shows improved ball movement and willingness to take the game on at home. The Kangaroos have demonstrated they can control games when their midfield gains ascendancy. Statistically, North Melbourne hold clear edges in both attack and defence. Their scoring average sits 13 points higher than Essendon’s, while they concede nine fewer points per game. The total points trend across both sides’ recent matches hovers around 177-180, aligning closely with current totals markets sitting at 174.5-175.5. Betting markets have installed North Melbourne as 14.5-15.5 point favourites. This line appears justified given Essendon’s average losing margin of 28 points and North’s superior recent outputs. The Kangaroos have covered similar spreads in two of their three wins, while Essendon have failed to cover in four of five losses. First-half and first-quarter spreads also lean toward North Melbourne, consistent with their stronger starts in recent victories. Tactically, North Melbourne will look to exploit Essendon’s porous defence through quick ball movement and forward pressure. Essendon must improve their contested ball win rate and reduce turnovers to stay competitive. The over/under markets around 174.5-175.5 appear fairly priced, though North’s occasional high-scoring games suggest slight value on the over if conditions remain dry. North Melbourne Kangaroos are expected to prevail by 16-24 points. Their superior average output and home advantage should prove decisive against an Essendon side still searching for answers.

✏️ Game Analysis

Essendon Bombers travel to face North Melbourne Kangaroos with the home side holding clear edges in both spread and team total markets. North Melbourne -13.5 projects at 71% True with 3.8% Edge, signalling the Kangaroos will control territory and scoreboard enough to cover comfortably. That same shape supports the Over 45.5 on North Melbourne’s team total at 66% True and 2.9% Edge, pointing to sustained forward entries and scoring opportunities that push their tally past the line. Both approved plays align on one projected game flow: North Melbourne establishing an early lead and maintaining pressure that keeps Essendon from matching output. The combination leaves little room for variance outside the modelled margins.

⚡Quarter Time Report

North Melbourne Kangaroos lead Essendon Bombers 18-14 at the first break after a scrappy, inaccurate opening term at Marvel Stadium. Both sides kicked two goals, but the Kangaroos added six behinds to Essendon’s two, underlining their early territorial edge. Luke Davies-Uniacke and Jy Simpkin provided the highlights for North, while Sam Durham and Ben McKay replied for the Bombers. The low-scoring, error-ridden quarter reflected both teams’ recent form issues, with Essendon continuing to struggle to generate clean entries and North Melbourne showing familiar conversion problems. Momentum sits marginally with the home side, who controlled more of the ball and created the better forward opportunities. From a betting perspective the first-quarter result has done little to shift the full-game line, with North still installed as 12.5-13.5 point favourites. The total also remains largely untouched despite the modest scoring output, as markets anticipate a lift in tempo across the remaining three quarters.

Probabilities

52.4-52.6

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Moderate lean to Essendon Bombers +13.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

51.3-52.4

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Moderate lean to Under 175.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

52.6-53.5

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Moderate lean to North Melbourne Kangaroos -6.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)

53.5-53.8

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Moderate lean to Over 87.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers

under

Moderate lean to Under 80.5 at 1.85 (TABtouch)

North Melbourne Kangaroos

under

Moderate lean to Under 93.5 at 1.89 (TABtouch)

⚡Halftime Report

North Melbourne lead Essendon 39-30 at halftime after a low-scoring, error-strewn opening half at Marvel Stadium. The Kangaroos booted 5.9 while the Bombers managed 4.6, with North controlling more territory and generating higher-quality entries despite their own conversion issues. Essendon’s continued defensive lapses and turnover problems have allowed North to dictate tempo, particularly through the midfield work of Luke Davies-Uniacke and Jy Simpkin. Scoring has been well below the projected 90-point half, leaving both sides with 30-39 points. From a betting viewpoint the full-game line remains North favourites by 12.5-13.5, while the total sits largely unchanged at 174.5-175.5. Essendon’s five-game losing streak and 28-point average margin suggest they will struggle to bridge the gap over the final two quarters. North’s superior recent outputs and home advantage continue to point toward a comfortable victory, though both teams’ inaccuracy keeps the total market suppressed. Momentum sits clearly with the Kangaroos heading into the second half.

Probabilities

52.4-52.6

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Essendon Bombers +13.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

52.4-53.2

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Moderate lean to Under 175.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

50.0-53.5

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Essendon Bombers +6.5 covering at 2.00 (TAB)

52.9-53.8

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Moderate lean to Under 87.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers

under

Lean to Under 80.5 at 1.85 (TABtouch)

North Melbourne Kangaroos

under

Lean to Under 93.5 at 1.89 (TABtouch)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

North Melbourne Kangaroos hold a commanding 63-38 lead over Essendon Bombers at three-quarter time at Marvel Stadium. The home side added 24 points in the third term to Essendon’s eight, extending a halftime advantage through superior midfield control and cleaner forward entries. Jack Darling and Charlie Spargo were prominent, while Essendon managed just one goal amid continued turnover issues and defensive lapses. Scoring has remained moderate at 101 combined points, well below projected pace. North Melbourne’s territorial edge and ability to capitalise on Essendon’s five-game losing streak have defined the contest. From a betting standpoint the full-game line remains North favourites by 12.5-13.5 points. The total market at 174.5-175.5 now looks inflated given the projected final score near 146. Essendon must lift dramatically in the final quarter to stay competitive, yet their recent margins suggest limited hope. North Melbourne’s home form and structural advantages point to a controlled finish.

Probabilities

52.4-52.4

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to North Melbourne Kangaroos -13.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

52.4-52.6

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Moderate lean to Under 175.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

52.4-52.4

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to North Melbourne Kangaroos -13.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

53.5-53.8

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Moderate lean to Under 87.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers

Under

Strong lean to Essendon Bombers Under 80.5 at 1.85 (TABtouch)

North Melbourne Kangaroos

Under

Lean to North Melbourne Kangaroos Under 93.5 at 1.89 (TABtouch)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
North Melbourne Kangaroos -13.5 Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	Full Spreads	SportsBet	-13.5	1.89	71.0%	3.8%	T2	2.5u	W
Over 45.5 (North Melbourne Kangaroos) Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	45.5	1.89	66.0%	2.9%	T2	2.5u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
North Melbourne Kangaroos -13.5 Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	Full Spreads	SportsBet	-13.5	1.89	71.0%	3.8%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 45.5 (North Melbourne Kangaroos) Essendon Bombers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	45.5	1.89	66.0%	2.9%	T2	2.5u	L

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -
Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
ESS Essendon Bombers
NOR North Melbourne Kangaroos

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Bombers fell to a 14-point defeat, finishing with 9 goals and 11 behinds for 65 points against the opposition’s 10 goals and 19 behinds for 79. They trailed by nine points at half time and could not close the gap in the second half despite a stronger final term. Nate Caddy kicked two goals for the winners while Sam Durham added two of his own in a solid display.

Season Story So Far

Another loss has kept the side in a difficult stretch, with the latest result underlining ongoing issues converting opportunities into scoreboard pressure. The campaign has been marked by inconsistent output across four quarters and an inability to match opposition intensity for sustained periods.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With no official ladder data available at this point, the recent run of results leaves the side searching for momentum. Points for and against show a clear deficit in scoring output compared to the opposition across the past month.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 12: lost to West Coast Eagles 55-85
Round 13: lost to Carlton Blues 67-72
Round 14: lost to Melbourne Demons 50-95
Round 16: lost to North Melbourne Kangaroos 65-79
Round 11: lost to Richmond Tigers 56-74

Five straight defeats have tested the group’s resilience heading into the second half of the season.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has struggled to cover spreads in recent outings, often falling well short of expected margins. Totals have also trended under in several matches, reflecting limited scoring output when the contest tightens.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Zach Merrett continues to lead the way through the midfield with high disposal counts and strong contested work, while forwards like Nate Caddy and Archer May have shown flashes in front of goal. The defensive unit has been under sustained pressure, with opposition entries often leading to quality scoring chances.

Player Highlights

Zach Merrett: Averaged over 25 disposals across the last five games with strong tackle numbers.
Nate Caddy: Kicked multiple goals in three of the past five matches and took several contested marks.
Archer May: Provided forward pressure and finished with three goals in round 11.
Sam Durham: Strong ball-winning display with 25 disposals and two goals in the latest outing.
Will Setterfield: Recorded 34 disposals and seven clearances in round 14.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The Bombcard on the Essendon versus North Melbourne game landed the Under on the Essendon team total at 77.5, with the side finishing on 65. A clean hit on the lower-scoring projection, though the overall card mixed results across other selections.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no confirmed upcoming fixture listed, the focus remains on addressing scoring efficiency and defensive structure in the next outing for Essendon Bombers.

ESS

vs

MEL

Jun 13 1:15pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 14

-

5 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Essendon’s season has reached a critical juncture as they prepare to face Melbourne at the MCG in Round 14. With both sides searching for consistency, this clash offers the Demons an opportunity to solidify their position while the Bombers desperately need to arrest a worrying slide. Essendon arrive on the back of five consecutive defeats, during which their scoring output has been severely limited. Across those matches they have averaged just 65.6 points per game while conceding 87.6, resulting in an average losing margin of 22 points. The most recent outing produced a narrow five-point loss, but the preceding results highlighted structural issues both offensively and defensively. Melbourne’s formline is more encouraging despite two setbacks in their past five outings. They have posted three wins in that stretch, averaging 97.92 points scored and 95.69 conceded overall. Their victories have typically come with authority, including margins of 32 and 39 points, although they have also shown vulnerability when their defensive structure is stretched. Statistically the contrast is stark. Essendon’s season-long averages of 75.15 points for and 104.85 against reflect ongoing difficulties generating scoring opportunities and preventing opposition chains. Melbourne’s near-parity between attack and defence (97.92 for, 95.69 against) suggests a side capable of controlling tempo and capitalising on turnovers. The betting markets reflect this disparity, installing Melbourne as 14.5- to 15.5-point favourites. Historical margins indicate the Demons have regularly covered similar lines when playing with structure, while Essendon’s recent results show little evidence they can keep games within single digits against quality opposition. Melbourne should control the contest through superior midfield output and more efficient forward entries. Expect them to win by a margin of 20 to 28 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Essendon Bombers visit Melbourne Demons with the latter projected to control proceedings. Melbourne Demons -14.5 at True 72% and 5% edge sets the tone for a clear margin, backed by their Over 92.5 team total at True 55% and 3% edge. That shape extends to the Over 45.5 first-quarter Melbourne total at True 54% and 2% edge, while the game Over 158.5 at True 52% and 2% edge points to efficient scoring volume. The Under Kysaiah Pickett 24.5 disposals at True 48% and -2% edge further aligns with Melbourne dictating terms and limiting opposition ball movement. Together the lines reinforce a one-sided contest built around Melbourne’s early and sustained output.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Melbourne lead Essendon 34-16 at the first break after a dominant opening term at the MCG. The Demons kicked five goals to two, generating 9 scoring shots to Essendon’s 6 while converting efficiently. Max Gawn, Jacob van Rooyen, Kysaiah Pickett, Ed Langdon and Harrison Petty all found the goals, underlining Melbourne’s ability to capitalise on forward entries. Essendon managed behinds from Ben McKay, Hussien El Achkar and Sam Durham before late majors to Will Setterfield and McKay, but their ball movement lacked cohesion. Melbourne’s contested ball work and cleaner ball use created repeated opportunities, while Essendon’s five straight losses have left them struggling to arrest momentum. The 18-point margin already exceeds the pre-game expectation for a tight first term. Melbourne’s efficiency from set shots and ability to punish turnovers suggest they will continue to control tempo. For the remainder, Melbourne’s superior midfield output should allow them to extend the lead, though Essendon may lift intensity after the break.

Probabilities

58-63%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Moderate lean to Melbourne Demons -29.5 covering at 1.90

53-58%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Slight lean to the Over 168.5 at 1.88

56-61%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Moderate lean to Melbourne Demons -14.5 covering at 1.90

52-57%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Slight lean to the Over 82.5 at 1.85

Team Totals

Team A

Moderate Over

Moderate lean to Melbourne Demons Over 99.5 at 1.83

Team B

Slight Under

Slight lean to Essendon Bombers Under 69.5 at 1.87

⚡Halftime Report

Melbourne hold a commanding 64-23 lead at halftime after a dominant opening half at the MCG. The Demons have generated 19 scoring shots to Essendon’s eight, converting nine of them into goals while restricting the Bombers to just three majors. Kysaiah Pickett’s three goals, alongside two each from Max Gawn and strong contributions from Jacob van Rooyen and Trent Rivers, have powered the surge. Melbourne’s midfield control and cleaner forward entries have been decisive, repeatedly turning Essendon turnovers into direct scoring opportunities. Essendon’s inability to generate meaningful inside-50 chains or apply sustained pressure has left them chasing the contest. Their three goals have come from isolated moments rather than structured build-up. With a 41-point buffer and superior disposal efficiency, Melbourne have dictated tempo and territory throughout. For the second half, the Demons are well positioned to extend their advantage. The full-game spread sits at Melbourne -38.5, and their control suggests they remain likely to cover. The total line of 145.5 looks likely to finish under given Melbourne’s ability to slow the contest. Second-half markets show Melbourne -19.5 and a total of 72.5, both favouring a controlled Demons performance.

Probabilities

68-73%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Strong lean to Melbourne -38.5 covering at 1.90

58-63%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Moderate lean to the Under 145.5 at 1.88

65-70%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Strong lean to Melbourne -19.5 covering at 1.90

54-59%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Slight lean to the Under 72.5 at 1.92

Team Totals

Team A

Moderate Over

Moderate lean to Melbourne Over 82.5 at 1.85

Team B

Slight Under

Slight lean to Essendon Under 62.5 at 1.90

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Melbourne hold a commanding 74-43 lead over Essendon at three-quarter time after a dominant first half. The Demons raced to a 64-23 advantage by the main break, powered by Kysaiah Pickett’s three goals and strong forward pressure from Max Gawn and Jacob van Rooyen. Essendon managed only three goals before half-time and struggled to generate clean entries. The third quarter saw a brief Essendon revival, with goals to Nikolas Cox, Hussien El Achkar and Sullivan Robey trimming the margin, yet Melbourne responded through Harrison Petty and maintained field position. Essendon’s continued poor conversion from set shots and limited contested ball wins have left them facing a 31-point deficit with one term remaining. Melbourne’s superior midfield output and efficiency inside 50 have dictated terms throughout. For the remainder, a moderate lean exists to Melbourne covering the full game spread of -30.5 at 1.90. The full game total leans under 162.5 at 1.88 as scoring has slowed. Second half spread favours Melbourne -14.5 at 1.85 while the second half total projects under 82.5 at 1.90. Team totals show a slight lean to Melbourne over 88.5 at 1.88 and a moderate lean to Essendon under 52.5 at 1.90. The key takeaway is Melbourne’s control through the midfield should prevent any meaningful Essendon comeback.

Probabilities

63-68%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Moderate lean to Melbourne -30.5 covering at 1.90

58-63%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Moderate lean to the Under 162.5 at 1.88

60-65%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Moderate lean to Melbourne -14.5 covering at 1.85

54-59%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Slight lean to the Under 82.5 at 1.90

Team Totals

Team A

Slight Over

Slight lean to Melbourne Over 88.5 at 1.88

Team B

Moderate Under

Moderate lean to Essendon Under 52.5 at 1.90

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 158.5 Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	Full O/U	PointsBet (AU)	158.5	1.88	52.0%	2.0%	T3	5u	L
Over 92.5 (Melbourne Demons) Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	Full Team Totals	Unibet	92.5	1.85	55.0%	3.0%	T2	2.5u	W
Melbourne Demons -14.5 Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	1H Spreads	PointsBet (AU)	-14.5	1.87	72.0%	5.0%	T1	1u	W
Over 45.5 (Melbourne Demons) Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	1H Team Totals	Unibet	45.5	1.82	54.0%	2.0%	T1	1u	W
Under Kysaiah Pickett 24.5 DISPOSALS Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	Disposals Over	Unibet	24.5	2.05	48.0%	-2.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 158.5 Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	Full O/U	PointsBet (AU)	158.5	1.88	52.0%	2.0%	T3	5u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 92.5 (Melbourne Demons) Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	Full Team Totals	Unibet	92.5	1.85	55.0%	3.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Melbourne Demons -14.5 Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	1H Spreads	PointsBet (AU)	-14.5	1.87	72.0%	5.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 45.5 (Melbourne Demons) Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	1H Team Totals	Unibet	45.5	1.82	54.0%	2.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Under Kysaiah Pickett 24.5 DISPOSALS Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	Disposals Over	Unibet	24.5	2.05	48.0%	-2.0%	T1	1u	L

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -
Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
ESS Essendon Bombers
MEL Melbourne Demons

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

Essendon went down to the opposition 50 to 95, a 45-point loss. The visitors managed just 6 goals 14 behinds while the opposition piled on 13 goals 17 behinds. Essendon led at no stage after a slow start, trailing by 18 points at quarter time and 41 at the main break before the gap blew out further in the second half.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a difficult stretch for Essendon, with the side searching for consistency across the middle rounds of the season. Heavy defeats have exposed areas that need tightening, though there have been flashes of individual resistance that offer some encouragement moving forward.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Essendon currently sit outside the top eight on the ladder with limited points accumulated. Their percentage sits well below 100, reflecting a points-against tally that has outstripped points for across the campaign so far. The numbers underline the need for improved defensive structure and more efficient forward entries.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 10: lost to Fremantle Dockers 61-104
Round 11: lost to Richmond Tigers 56-74
Round 12: lost to West Coast Eagles 55-85
Round 13: lost to Carlton Blues 67-72
Round 14: lost to Melbourne Demons 50-95

Five straight losses have left the side needing a strong response in the weeks ahead.

Betting Trends & Performance

Essendon have struggled to cover spreads in recent outings, often falling well short of expected margins. Totals have also trended under in several matches as the side has been unable to generate consistent scoring opportunities against well-organised opposition defences.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Work rate around the contest has been solid in patches, with high tackle counts and contested possession numbers from key midfielders. Inside-50 entries have been plentiful at times but conversion remains an issue. Defensively the side has conceded too many easy looks, particularly in transition, leading to inflated opposition scores.

Player Highlights

Zach Merrett: Continues to lead the way with 32 disposals, 19 kicks and strong contested numbers in the latest outing.
Will Setterfield: Strong ball-winning display with 34 disposals and seven clearances.
Ben McKay: Provided a target up forward with six disposals and a goal while also contributing defensively.
Archer May: Kicked three goals in round 11 and remains a lively presence in attack.
Nate Caddy: Two goals and strong marking presence in recent weeks.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed a couple of value spots on unders and overs but missed the main spread selections. Owning the misses on the wider margins, the focus now shifts to tighter unit betting on Essendon games where the data shows clearer edges.

Outlook / What to Watch

Essendon will look to arrest the slide when they next take the field. Expect a focus on contested ball and reducing turnovers, with the side needing to lift its defensive pressure to keep totals in check and stay competitive on the spread.

CAR

vs

ESS

Jun 7 7:20pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 13

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4 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Carlton Blues head to the MCG to face Essendon Bombers in round 13, a contest that carries significant weight for both sides as they look to steady their seasons. With the Blues showing signs of a revival and the Bombers mired in a slump, the match offers a clear test of momentum versus opportunity. Carlton enter with three wins from their past five outings, a marked improvement after consecutive narrow defeats. Their victories have come by margins of 12, 34 and four points, underlining an ability to close out tight contests while also demonstrating attacking potency when opportunities arise. In contrast, Essendon have lost all five of their most recent matches, with losing margins ranging from 14 to 64 points. The pattern suggests defensive vulnerabilities that opponents have repeatedly exploited. Statistically, Carlton average 81 points scored and 93 conceded across recent games, while Essendon sit at 76 for and 108 against. The Blues have shown greater consistency in both halves of the ground, particularly in the second and final terms where they have outscored their opposition in four of the last five fixtures. Essendon’s scoring has been erratic, rarely sustaining pressure across four quarters. Key personnel will shape the outcome. Carlton’s midfield depth and contested-ball winners provide a platform to control tempo, while Essendon will rely on their experienced ball carriers to generate transition opportunities. The absence of consistent forward pressure for the Bombers has been a recurring issue, allowing opposition defences to dictate terms. Betting markets have installed Carlton as 14.5- to 16.5-point favourites, a line that aligns closely with recent margins. The Blues’ three wins have come by an average of 16.7 points, suggesting they are well placed to cover the spread. Totals markets sit around 172.5-173.5, slightly below the combined recent averages, but the likelihood of a higher-scoring first half remains a factor given both teams’ early tendencies. High-edge wagers from prior rounds have repeatedly targeted Carlton’s first-half and full-game spreads, reflecting confidence in their ability to establish leads. Carlton should prevail by 20 to 30 points. Their superior recent form, combined with Essendon’s ongoing defensive lapses, points to a comfortable victory for the visitors at the MCG.

✏️ Game Analysis

Carlton Blues head into the contest against Essendon Bombers as heavy road favorites. The approved Carlton Blues -16.5 spread at 65% True and 3% Edge sets the tone for expected dominance. This projection gains support from the over Carlton Blues 101.5 at 55% True and 2% Edge, indicating strong scoring output. The first half over 49.5 for Carlton at 52% True and 1% Edge suggests they will establish an early advantage. Additionally, Patrick Cripps over 28.5 disposals at 52% True and 1% Edge points to his central role in maintaining possession and driving forward momentum. All these plays reinforce a consistent game shape favoring Carlton's control and accumulation.

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Carlton Blues -16.5 Carlton Blues vs Essendon Bombers	1H Spreads	Unibet	-16.5	1.88	65.0%	3.0%	T1	1u	L
Over Carlton Blues 101.5 Carlton Blues vs Essendon Bombers	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	101.5	1.87	55.0%	2.0%	T1	1u	L
Over Carlton Blues 49.5 Carlton Blues vs Essendon Bombers	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	49.5	1.87	52.0%	1.0%	T1	1u	L
Over Patrick Cripps 28.5 DISPOSALS Carlton Blues vs Essendon Bombers	Disposals Over	SportsBet	28.5	1.85	52.0%	1.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Carlton Blues 101.5 Carlton Blues vs Essendon Bombers	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	101.5	1.87	55.0%	2.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Carlton Blues -16.5 Carlton Blues vs Essendon Bombers	1H Spreads	Unibet	-16.5	1.88	65.0%	3.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Carlton Blues 49.5 Carlton Blues vs Essendon Bombers	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	49.5	1.87	52.0%	1.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Patrick Cripps 28.5 DISPOSALS Carlton Blues vs Essendon Bombers	Disposals Over	SportsBet	28.5	1.85	52.0%	1.0%	T1	1u	L

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -
Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
CAR Carlton Blues
ESS Essendon Bombers

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

ESS

vs

WCE

May 31 7:20pm ·Optus Stadium ·Round 12

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5 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Essendon’s road trip to Optus Stadium looms as another stern examination for a side still searching for answers in 2026. The Bombers arrive having lost their past five outings by an average margin of 53 points, a run that has exposed persistent defensive frailties and an inability to sustain scoreboard pressure. Across those matches Essendon has averaged just 71 points while conceding 100.5, with three of the defeats featuring concessions above 137. The most recent loss to Richmond underlined the pattern: 56-74 and another game in which the Bombers were held goalless after half-time. Momentum is clearly with the home side. West Coast enter the contest in markedly better shape. Their sole win in the past five came against Greater Western Sydney, and even in defeat the Eagles have kept games closer on average. They concede 100.1 points per game but have shown the capacity to kick 88 on two occasions recently, suggesting they can capitalise on any Essendon lapse. Statistically the contest profiles as low-scoring. Essendon’s season totals sit at 71.25 for and 100.5 against, while West Coast’s corresponding figures are 66.17 and 100.08. The Eagles’ home record at Optus Stadium has historically produced tighter margins, and current betting lines reflect that reality: West Coast are favoured by between 3.5 and 7.5 points across major agencies. Previous modelling has repeatedly highlighted value on the Eagles covering spreads in home games, with several high-edge full-game and first-half spread bets landing against Essendon-style opposition. The total market sits around 152, yet both teams’ recent scoring suggests the under may hold appeal. Tactically, West Coast’s ability to win the contested ball and transition quickly should trouble an Essendon defence that has leaked heavily in transition. The Bombers will need their midfield to dominate clearances simply to stay in touch beyond quarter-time. Expect West Coast to take control after half-time and prevail by 12 to 22 points on home soil.

✏️ Game Analysis

Essendon Bombers face West Coast Eagles with the approved plays all converging on a clear home-side edge. West Coast -7.5 at 72% true probability and 4% edge leads the slate, backed by over 79.5 for the Eagles at 65% true probability. Further support comes from West Coast -3.5, over 39.5 for the Eagles, and West Coast -1.5, each reinforcing the same projected shape across the full game, first half and first quarter. These lines collectively signal West Coast covering spreads while posting moderate team totals without contradiction. The projection aligns with the Eagles favored on spread and team output, shaping expectations for controlled dominance from the home side.

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
West Coast Eagles -7.5 Essendon Bombers vs West Coast Eagles	Full Spreads	SportsBet	-7.5	1.90	72.0%	4.0%	T2	2.5u	W
Over 79.5 (West Coast Eagles) Essendon Bombers vs West Coast Eagles	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	79.5	1.89	65.0%	1.0%	T1	1u	W
West Coast Eagles -3.5 Essendon Bombers vs West Coast Eagles	1H Spreads	Ladbrokes	-3.5	1.92	60.0%	-2.0%	T1	1u	W
Over 39.5 (West Coast Eagles) Essendon Bombers vs West Coast Eagles	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	39.5	1.88	58.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	L
West Coast Eagles -1.5 Essendon Bombers vs West Coast Eagles	1Q Spreads	Ladbrokes	-1.5	1.88	55.0%	-1.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
West Coast Eagles -7.5 Essendon Bombers vs West Coast Eagles	Full Spreads	SportsBet	-7.5	1.90	72.0%	4.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 79.5 (West Coast Eagles) Essendon Bombers vs West Coast Eagles	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	79.5	1.89	65.0%	1.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
West Coast Eagles -3.5 Essendon Bombers vs West Coast Eagles	1H Spreads	Ladbrokes	-3.5	1.92	60.0%	-2.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 39.5 (West Coast Eagles) Essendon Bombers vs West Coast Eagles	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	39.5	1.88	58.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
West Coast Eagles -1.5 Essendon Bombers vs West Coast Eagles	1Q Spreads	Ladbrokes	-1.5	1.88	55.0%	-1.0%	T1	1u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Optus Stadium MATCHCAST -
Optus Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
ESS Essendon Bombers
WCE West Coast Eagles

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The side fell to the opposition by 30 points, finishing with 8 goals 7 behinds for 55 points against the visitors' 12 goals 13 behinds for 85. The contest was tight early but slipped away badly after half time as the opposition piled on eight goals to four. Nate Caddy and Archer Day-Wicks each booted two goals for the home side, while the opposition's standout forward finished with three majors.

Season Story So Far

Heavy defeats have become the norm, with the latest result extending a run of poor outcomes that have left the group searching for answers. The pattern of slow starts and second-half collapses has made it difficult to build any sustained momentum through the middle of the year.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The numbers reflect a side near the foot of the table, carrying low points and a percentage well under 100 after conceding far more than has been scored. The gap in points for and against highlights the scale of the task ahead if the group is to climb back into contention.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 8: Essendon Bombers 11.13 (79) lost to Brisbane Lions 22.11 (143)
Round 9: Essendon Bombers 13.11 (89) lost to Greater Western Sydney Giants 16.7 (103)
Round 10: Essendon Bombers 8.13 (61) lost to Fremantle Dockers 16.8 (104)
Round 11: Essendon Bombers 7.14 (56) lost to Richmond Tigers 10.14 (74)
Round 12: Essendon Bombers 8.7 (55) lost to West Coast Eagles 12.13 (85)

Five straight losses with margins ranging from 14 to 64 points.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has struggled to cover spreads in recent outings, with the opposition regularly exceeding projected margins. Totals have also landed under the line more often than expected, reflecting low-scoring games when the attack fails to fire consistently.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been plentiful at times but conversion remains an issue, with behinds piling up in several matches. Defensively the group has been stretched, allowing high-volume scoring from opposition forwards and struggling to win enough contested possessions in the middle. Zach Merrett continues to lead the disposal count but support around him has been inconsistent.

Player Highlights

Nate Caddy: Multiple bags of three goals across the stretch, adding strong contested marking and inside-50 work.
Zach Merrett: Averaging over 25 disposals with strong clearance numbers and consistent ball-winning.
Peter Wright: Providing ruck dominance and occasional forward threat with 27 hitouts in one outing.
Archer May: Kicking three goals in back-to-back games and showing promising signs up forward.
Kyle Langford: Steady contributor with 20 disposals and two goals in a tough loss.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card backed the over on the total line in the most recent outing but the game finished well under at 140 points. We own the miss and move on, looking for clearer value in upcoming weeks rather than forcing totals in low-scoring affairs.

Outlook / What to Watch

Essendon Bombers host Carlton Blues at the MCG under lights. Expect a physical contest through the midfield where Essendon will need to lift contested ball numbers to give their forwards cleaner looks. Carlton's tall forwards will test the defensive structure, so rebounding quickly from half back will be key. Scoring is likely to be moderate given both sides' recent form, with the total hovering around the low 150s a reasonable guide. Essendon will need to start faster than they have in recent weeks if they are to keep the margin within the projected spread.

ESS

vs

RIC

May 22 7:45pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 11

-

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🧠 Match Preview

Essendon and Richmond meet at the MCG in Round 11 with both sides searching for momentum after inconsistent starts to the season. The visitors enter as slight favourites, but the contest promises to be tight given the defensive vulnerabilities on display from both teams. Essendon arrive on the back of five straight defeats, including heavy losses by 64, 43 and 30 points. Their scoring has been limited, averaging just 75.83 points per game while conceding 107.58. Recent margins show a pattern of being outworked after half-time, with three of the past five games featuring second-half concessions exceeding 50 points. Richmond’s form is only marginally better, recording two wins and three losses. Their attack has been even more subdued at 65.58 points per game, though they have shown the capacity to win low-scoring affairs when their defence holds firm. Statistically the sides are close. Essendon’s slightly higher scoring average gives them a narrow edge in expected points, yet both teams are allowing opponents more than 107 points per contest. This points to a game that could exceed the current total line sitting around 172.5–173.5. The head-to-head history also suggests margins are often decided by fewer than three goals. Key match-ups will revolve around midfield control and forward-half efficiency. Essendon’s ability to generate repeat entries will be tested against Richmond’s rebounding structures, while Richmond must improve their conversion if they are to cover the current 6.5-point line. From a betting perspective, the market has priced Essendon as marginal favourites at $1.88–$1.92. The 6.5-point spread aligns with recent average margins between the sides, but Richmond’s two victories this year have come by 11 and 18 points, indicating they are capable of covering when conditions suit. Totals markets have been consistently over in Richmond’s past three outings, supporting the lean toward the over 172.5. Essendon should prevail, but expect a grind. The Bombers are tipped to win by 8–15 points in a contest that finishes just over the total line.

✏️ Game Analysis

Essendon Bombers face Richmond Tigers in a matchup projected to finish well under the total. The under 173.5 line at 1.88 odds carries a 52% true probability and 1.5% edge, aligning directly with a controlled, low-output game shape. Both teams are expected to favour defensive structures that restrict open play and limit scoring chances across the ground. This setup reinforces the approved under total play, as the projection remains consistent with the favourite spread and points to fewer goals than the average. Bettors taking the under gain from the unified view of a restrained contest. The 52% true hit rate and positive edge confirm the lean holds steady in the current conditions.

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Under 173.5 Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers	Full O/U	SportsBet	173.5	1.88	52.0%	1.5%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Under 173.5 Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers	Full O/U	SportsBet	173.5	1.88	52.0%	1.5%	T1	1u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -
Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
ESS Essendon Bombers
RIC Richmond Tigers

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The side went down by 18 points, scoring 7 goals and 14 behinds for 56 points to the opposition's 10 goals and 14 behinds for 74. A tight opening gave way to a stronger second half from the visitors. Top goal scorers from the winning team were Thomas Lynch with a bag of 2, while the opposition’s best performer was Archer May with 3 goals.

Season Story So Far

The latest result fits a pattern of narrow margins and heavier defeats across the opening rounds, leaving the group searching for consistency in both halves of the ground.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Current ladder position, points and percentage details are not listed in available data, though the points for and against tallies indicate the team is still building its season totals and differential.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 6: Lost to Gold Coast Suns 110-119
Round 7: Lost to Collingwood Magpies 60-137
Round 8: Lost to Brisbane Lions 79-143
Round 9: Lost to Greater Western Sydney Giants 89-103
Round 10: Lost to Fremantle Dockers 61-104

Five straight losses with margins ranging from single figures to heavy defeats.

Betting Trends & Performance

Recent results show the side has struggled to cover spreads, with totals also landing under the line more often than not as scoring has been limited in the second halves of several matches.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Zach Merrett remains the engine room with strong disposal and tackle numbers, while forward targets have shown good work rate inside 50. The defensive unit has been under sustained pressure, conceding high inside-50 counts and contested possessions to the opposition.

Player Highlights

Zach Merrett: 34 disposals, 8 tackles and 9 score involvements in the most recent outing.
Nate Caddy: Multiple games with 2-3 goals and strong contested marking.
Archer May: 3 goals and 15 disposals in the latest match, showing strong forward pressure.
Peter Wright: Reliable goal threat with 3 goals and 21 hitouts in round 9.
Isaac Kako: 2 goals and clean hands in the forward pocket during round 6.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed a couple of under totals but missed the higher-tier spread plays; owning those misses and tightening unit sizing for the next round.

Outlook / What to Watch

Essendon Bombers head to Optus Stadium to face West Coast Eagles in what shapes as a contest where the Eagles’ home advantage meets Essendon’s need for a strong start. Expect a physical style with both sides pushing the ball forward quickly. Essendon will look to win the midfield battle and create scoring chances through the corridor, while totals could push toward the over if the Eagles’ defence is stretched. The spread market suggests a tight margin either way, making controlled first-half execution key for the Bombers.

ROUND	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
PLAYED	Hawthorn Hawks	Port Adelaide Power	North Melbourne Kangaroos	Western Bulldogs	Melbourne Demons	Gold Coast Suns	Collingwood Magpies	Brisbane Lions	Greater Western Sydney Giants	Fremantle Dockers	Richmond Tigers	West Coast Eagles	Carlton Blues	Melbourne Demons	BYE	North Melbourne Kangaroos	St Kilda Saints	Brisbane Lions	Greater Western Sydney Giants	Hawthorn Hawks	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	Sydney Swans	Port Adelaide Power
RESULT	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	BYE	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L
HM / AW	HM	AW	HM	AW	HM	AW	HM	HM	AW	HM	AW	AW	HM	AW	BYE	AW	HM	AW	HM	AW	HM	AW	HM	HM
PTS FOR	83	70	69	65	113	110	60	79	89	61	56	55	67	50	BYE	65	50	59	67	39	73	50	76	95
PTS AGT	145	133	81	99	68	119	137	143	103	104	74	85	72	95	BYE	79	117	149	64	132	145	117	112	105
TOTAL	228	203	150	164	181	229	197	222	192	165	130	140	139	145	BYE	144	167	208	131	171	218	167	188	200
AVG FOR	83	77	74	72	80	85	81	81	82	80	78	76	75	73	BYE	73	71	71	70	69	69	68	68	70
AVG AGT	145	139	120	115	105	108	112	116	114	113	110	108	105	104	BYE	102	103	106	104	105	107	108	108	108
AVG TOTAL	228	216	194	187	185	193	193	197	196	193	188	184	180	177	BYE	175	174	177	174	174	176	176	176	178

Essendon Bombers 2026 Season Stats, Form & Betting Analysis

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Season Story

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52-58%

48-54%

53-59%

49-55%

Port Adelaide Power

Essendon Bombers

72-78

68-74

65-71

62-68

Port Adelaide Power

Essendon Bombers

52-58

68-74

55-61

62-68

Port Adelaide Power

Essendon Bombers

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Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

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Attacking & Defensive Story

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72-78

58-64

65-71

60-66

Sydney Swans

Essendon Bombers

62-68%

58-64%

55-61%

52-58%

Sydney Swans

Essendon Bombers

62-68%

55-61%

58-64%

52-58%

Sydney Swans

Essendon Bombers

POST GAME STORYLINE

Essendon Bombers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

Season Story So Far

Ladder Position & Differentials

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Betting Trends & Performance

Attacking & Defensive Story

Player Highlights

Youngbloods Best Bets

Outlook / What to Watch

68-78

52-62

58-68

53-63

Essendon Bombers

Geelong Cats

62-68%

55-61%

58-64%

53-59%

Essendon Bombers

Geelong Cats

38-48

42-52

35-45

48-58

Essendon Bombers

Geelong Cats