Gold Coast Suns 2026 Season | Stats, Form & Betting Analysis

GCS

vs

STK

Aug 20 7:30pm ·Marvel Stadium ·Round 24

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2 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

St Kilda Saints enter their Round 24 meeting with Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium holding a clear edge in recent defensive structure and scoring efficiency. With both sides fighting for late-season momentum, the contest offers a sharp contrast in form trends and statistical profiles. Gold Coast Suns arrive with just one win from their past five outings. Their results include a narrow 79-77 victory over Greater Western Sydney Giants, bookended by losses of 9, 13, 9 and 42 points. The Suns average 86.73 points scored and 93.09 conceded across the stretch, reflecting a side that struggles to close out games and leaks points in key quarters. St Kilda Saints present a more balanced ledger, securing two wins in their last five. Standout victories of 93-62 against North Melbourne Kangaroos and 94-45 over Richmond Tigers sit alongside defeats by 27, 19 and 44 points. Their season averages of 88.64 points for and 85.05 against indicate superior ball control and a stingier defence than their opponents. The statistical gap is most evident at the defensive end. While both teams post similar scoring outputs, St Kilda’s ability to restrict opposition totals in victories suggests they can dictate tempo at Marvel Stadium. Gold Coast’s recent margins show vulnerability when pressured, particularly in the second half where they have conceded heavily in three of the past five matches. Betting markets have installed St Kilda as 12.5- to 13.5-point favourites, a line that aligns with the Saints’ superior defensive metrics. The total sits near 178.5, consistent with the combined averages of both sides. St Kilda’s recent wins by large margins support the view they can cover the spread, while Gold Coast’s narrow win and heavy defeat highlight inconsistency against quality opposition. St Kilda Saints should prevail by 15 to 22 points in a controlled performance that exploits Gold Coast’s defensive lapses.

✏️ Game Analysis

St Kilda Saints welcome Gold Coast Suns to their home ground, where their edge and superior percentage of 104.22 versus 93.16 set the tone. This directly supports the St Kilda Saints spread play with a True 72% and Edge 3.2%, indicating the Saints will cover the line. The Over 82.5 on the Gold Coast Suns team total, carrying a True 42% and Edge -0.8%, aligns with the same projected shape, as the Suns generate sufficient scoring to hit that mark while St Kilda leverages its percentage strength. Together these calls paint a game where St Kilda's advantage prevails and the Suns' output meets the over projection.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Gold Coast Suns lead St Kilda Saints 46-31 at quarter time after a fast-paced opening term at Marvel Stadium. The Suns booted seven goals to five, with Ben King (two) and Leonardo Lombard (two) doing damage inside 50 while St Kilda’s defence looked unsettled. Scoring was already well above average for a first quarter, with 77 points on the board. Gold Coast generated cleaner entries and converted at a higher rate, while St Kilda relied on late majors from Rowan Marshall and Hugo Garcia to stay within striking distance. Momentum sits clearly with the visitors after they won the majority of centre clearances and inside-50s. From a betting perspective the early tempo suggests the full-game total will finish well above the 180.5-182.5 range. St Kilda remain pre-game favourites at 13.5-16.5 but must arrest Gold Coast’s forward pressure quickly or the margin will stretch further. Three quarters remain, yet the Suns have already established a platform that challenges St Kilda’s defensive identity. Expect a response from the Saints, but Gold Coast’s current efficiency keeps them live to cover or push the total higher.

Probabilities

48-52

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to St Kilda Saints -13.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

68-74

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Strong lean to Over 180.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

51-55

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to St Kilda Saints -6.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

55-61

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 89.5 at 1.87 (Ladbrokes)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

Over

Strong lean to Over 81.5 at 1.88 (TABtouch)

St Kilda Saints

Over

Lean to Over 96.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

Gold Coast Suns hold a commanding 68-53 halftime lead over St Kilda Saints at Marvel Stadium after a dominant opening half. The Suns exploded for 10 goals to 8, with Leonardo Lombard (3 goals) and Ben King (2) providing the cutting edge. St Kilda stayed competitive through Ryan Byrnes and Rowan Marshall but conceded too many easy entries, particularly in the first quarter where Gold Coast piled on six majors. Momentum sits firmly with the visitors, who have won the inside-50 count and converted at a higher rate. Defensively, St Kilda’s structure has been porous, allowing Gold Coast to generate repeat opportunities. From a betting lens, Gold Coast’s 15-point buffer already positions them strongly against the +13.5 to +16.5 halftime spreads. The total sits at 121 points, tracking well under the 180.5-182.5 full-game lines, yet the pace suggests scoring will lift in the second half. St Kilda must improve ball movement and reduce turnovers to claw back into the contest, while Gold Coast will look to maintain pressure and extend their advantage. The Suns’ superior first-half execution gives them the clearer path to victory.

Probabilities

72-80

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Strong lean to Gold Coast Suns +14.5 covering at 1.90 (Bet Right)

55-63

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 181.5 at 1.88 (PlayUp)

68-76

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Strong lean to Gold Coast Suns +8.5 covering at 1.88 (Ladbrokes)

58-66

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 90.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

Over

Very Strong lean to Gold Coast Suns Over 81.5 at 1.88 (TABtouch)

St Kilda Saints

Under

Lean to St Kilda Saints Under 96.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Gold Coast Suns have seized control at three-quarter time, leading St Kilda Saints 88-60 after a dominant display built on efficient forward entries and relentless pressure. The Suns kicked 12 goals to nine across the first three quarters, with Leonardo Lombard and Ben King providing consistent threat. St Kilda managed only six behinds in the third term and have struggled to generate clean possession against Gold Coast’s defensive structure. The 28-point margin has flipped pre-game expectations, where St Kilda were installed as 13.5-point favourites. Scoring has been steady rather than explosive, with the total sitting at 148. Gold Coast’s 88 already exceeds several full-game team total lines, placing them in a commanding position with one quarter remaining. St Kilda will need a dramatic final-term surge to recover either the spread or total markets. Momentum sits firmly with the Suns, whose second-half efficiency suggests they can extend the lead or at least hold their advantage. From a betting standpoint, the Suns have created strong value in multiple markets after their clinical first three quarters.

Probabilities

68-75%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Strong lean to Gold Coast Suns +14.5 covering at 1.90 (Bet Right)

62-69%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 181.5 at 1.90 (Bet Right)

65-72%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Strong lean to Gold Coast Suns +8.5 covering at 1.88 (Ladbrokes)

58-65%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 90.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

Over

Extremely Strong lean to Gold Coast Suns Over 90.5 at 2.52 (Unibet)

St Kilda Saints

Under

Strong lean to St Kilda Saints Under 96.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
St Kilda Saints Gold Coast Suns vs St Kilda Saints	Head to Head	SportsBet	—	1.40	72.0%	3.2%	T2	2.5u	L
Over 82.5 (Gold Coast Suns) Gold Coast Suns vs St Kilda Saints	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	82.5	1.89	42.0%	-0.8%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
St Kilda Saints Gold Coast Suns vs St Kilda Saints	Head to Head	SportsBet	—	1.40	72.0%	3.2%	T2	2.5u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 82.5 (Gold Coast Suns) Gold Coast Suns vs St Kilda Saints	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	82.5	1.89	42.0%	-0.8%	T1	1u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -
Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
GCS Gold Coast Suns
STK St Kilda Saints

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Suns finished with 14.19 (103) to the opposition's 12.8 (80), prevailing by 23 points. They led at every change, kicking away after half time with a strong third term that stretched the margin beyond reach. Ben King and Leonardo Lombard each booted three goals for the winners, while the opposition's best performer was Hugh Boxshall with three goals of his own.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a five-game stretch that included three losses and one narrow win. While results have been mixed, the side has shown patches of strong ball movement and contested work, particularly through the midfield, though converting opportunities consistently remains a work in progress.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Ladder data is currently unavailable. Points, percentage, and points for/against will be updated once official standings are released, giving a clearer picture of where the Suns sit relative to the competition.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 19: Lost to Western Bulldogs 68-77
Round 20: Lost to Carlton Blues 97-110
Round 21: Lost to Melbourne Demons 105-114
Round 22: Defeated Greater Western Sydney Giants 79-77
Round 23: Lost to Brisbane Lions 53-95

The form line shows a side capable of grinding out tight wins but still searching for consistency across four quarters.

Betting Trends & Performance

With limited betting data available, the Suns have tended to play to competitive totals in recent outings, though results have swung both ways on the spread depending on how cleanly they transition from defence.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Touk Miller has been a standout with high disposal counts and strong clearance work, while the forward line has relied on players like Ben King to convert inside-50 entries. Tackle pressure has been solid in patches, though the side has sometimes been outworked in the middle of the ground by more experienced opposition units.

Player Highlights

Touk Miller: Continues to lead the midfield with 39 disposals in one outing and consistent clearance numbers across the stretch.
Ben King: Multiple bags of three goals, providing a reliable target up forward.
Leonardo Lombard: Kicked three goals in the latest win and added strong inside-50 involvement.
Jed Walter: Showed promise with three goals and strong marking in one of the recent matches.
Christian Petracca: Delivered 23 disposals and two goals in a high-possession game.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No Match Bombcard data was supplied for review. The honest read is that without the card in front of us, we can't assess the tips or own any misses this round.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Gold Coast Suns will look to carry momentum from their most recent performance into the next assignment. Expect a focus on maintaining midfield dominance and converting more of their inside-50 entries, with the style likely to remain high possession and contested-ball focused depending on conditions at the venue.

GCS

vs

BRI

Aug 15 4:15pm ·Gabba ·Round 23

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🧠 Match Preview

The Gabba will host a fierce Queensland derby in Round 23 as the Gold Coast Suns visit the Brisbane Lions, with both sides eyeing late-season momentum. Brisbane enters as clear favourites, but Gold Coast’s narrow win in their most recent outing offers a sliver of hope. Gold Coast’s form has been inconsistent, recording just one victory in their past five matches. They have struggled to keep games close, suffering heavy defeats before scraping home by two points last week. Their scoring has hovered around 88 points per game while conceding 93, reflecting a side that generates enough offence to stay competitive but often falters against stronger opposition. Brisbane, by contrast, has been dominant. With four wins from five, the Lions have posted an average of 106.9 points for and 90.7 against. Their victories have frequently come by large margins, including three games decided by 50 points or more, underlining both offensive firepower and defensive control when at their best. Statistically the gap is stark. Brisbane’s higher scoring average and superior defensive record suggest they will control territory and limit Gold Coast’s transition game. The Suns have managed only one win by a single-digit margin in their recent stretch, while Brisbane’s losses have been outliers rather than the norm. Betting markets reflect this disparity, installing Brisbane as 32.5-point favourites. The total line sits near 188.5, yet Brisbane’s recent high-scoring outputs and Gold Coast’s leaky defence point toward the possibility of the line being exceeded. The Lions’ ability to win by 30-plus points in four of their last five victories makes covering the spread a realistic proposition. Brisbane should dictate terms from the opening bounce at home. Expect the Lions to establish a substantial lead by half-time and maintain pressure through the middle quarters. While Gold Coast may kick a late goal or two, Brisbane’s superior structure and scoring depth should prevail. Prediction: Brisbane Lions by 35 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Brisbane Lions host Gold Coast Suns with their home dominance clashing against the visitors' dismal away form, setting up a substantial margin outcome. The approved Brisbane Lions -16.5 line captures this shape precisely. At True 72% with an 8% edge at odds 1.9, the spread bet aligns directly with expectations of Brisbane controlling proceedings from the outset. Gold Coast Suns' WLLLL away record underscores vulnerability on the road, while Brisbane's WLWWW home sequence reinforces their ability to cover the line comfortably. This play projects a one-sided contest where the Lions dictate terms throughout, validating the large margin projection without deviation.

⚡Quarter Time Report

The opening term at the Gabba delivered a low-scoring, even contest with Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast Suns locked at 15-15 after 30 minutes. Both sides managed two goals and three behinds, but the 30-point total fell well below typical Q1 lines, reflecting tight defensive structures and poor conversion rather than open play. Brisbane’s early behinds from Cameron and Ashcroft were offset by goals from Hipwood and Fort, while Gold Coast responded through Long and Humphrey. Momentum sits level despite Brisbane’s pre-game favouritism. The Suns have shown they can stay connected early, but Brisbane’s superior depth and home advantage should see them dictate territory in the second quarter. From a betting lens, the low Q1 output suggests the full-game total may trend under if defensive patterns persist, yet Brisbane’s historical second-half dominance points to them stretching the margin. Gold Coast must maintain pressure to stay within the 32.5-point line. Expect Brisbane to establish a lead by half-time through better ball movement and forward entries. Key takeaway: Brisbane remain the stronger side but must convert opportunities more efficiently to cover the spread.

Probabilities

48-52

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Gold Coast Suns +32.5 covering at 1.9 (TAB)

52-56

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 192.5 at 1.9 (SportsBet)

55-59

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Brisbane Lions -16.5 covering at 1.9 (TAB)

51-55

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 95.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

under

Lean to Under 79.5 at 1.88 (TABtouch)

Brisbane Lions

under

Lean to Under 111.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Brisbane Lions lead Gold Coast Suns 37-25 at the Gabba. The first half produced just 62 points in a contested, low-efficiency battle, with Brisbane’s five goals to three providing the only real separation. Both sides traded behinds early before Brisbane edged ahead through goals to Hipwood and Fort, only for Gold Coast to respond via Long and Humphrey. The second quarter followed a similar pattern, Brisbane adding three more majors while the Suns managed only one. Momentum sits slightly with the Lions, who have controlled more territory and inside-50 entries, yet both defences have restricted quality chances. Scoring has been well below market expectations, keeping the total line very much alive. Brisbane remain clear favourites to extend their advantage, but the margin required to cover the full-game spread remains substantial. For the second half, Brisbane’s structure and home advantage point to a stronger output, while the under on both team totals and the game total remain the most probable outcomes given the established trend.

Probabilities

48-58

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Brisbane Lions -32.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)

62-72

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 192.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

55-65

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Brisbane Lions -16.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

58-68

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 95.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

under

Lean to Under 79.5 at 1.88 (TABtouch)

Brisbane Lions

under

Lean to Under 111.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Brisbane Lions hold a commanding 70-41 lead at three-quarter time after outscoring Gold Coast 33-16 in the third term. The Lions have kicked 10 goals to five and controlled territory through superior structure and contested ball work. Gold Coast have generated some forward entries but remain inefficient, adding just one goal after half-time until the final minutes of the quarter. Brisbane’s midfield dominance and ability to transition quickly have created repeated scoring opportunities, particularly through Logan Morris and Oscar Allen. From a betting perspective the game has reached a critical juncture. Brisbane’s 29-point lead leaves the -32.5 line still live but requiring a strong final quarter. The total sits at 111 with lines near 192.5-194.5, meaning a high-scoring last term is needed to push over. Brisbane’s team total lines (111.5-113.5) remain reachable with 42-plus points still possible. Gold Coast’s lower totals (79.5-80.5) look increasingly difficult to reach given their scoring rate. Momentum sits firmly with Brisbane, who have won the last two quarters convincingly.

Probabilities

52-58

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Gold Coast Suns +32.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

55-62

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 192.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

48-54

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Gold Coast Suns +16.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

53-59

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 96.5 at 1.95 (TAB)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Lean to Under 79.5 at 1.88 (TABtouch)

Brisbane Lions

Over

Lean to Over 111.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Brisbane Lions -16.5 Gold Coast Suns vs Brisbane Lions	1H Spreads	TAB	-16.5	1.90	72.0%	8.0%	T3	5u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Brisbane Lions -16.5 Gold Coast Suns vs Brisbane Lions	1H Spreads	TAB	-16.5	1.90	72.0%	8.0%	T3	5u	L

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Gabba MATCHCAST -
Gabba MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
GCS Gold Coast Suns
BRI Brisbane Lions

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Suns fell to a 42-point defeat, finishing with 6 goals and 17 behinds for 53 points against the opposition's 14 goals and 11 behinds for 95. The visitors started evenly in the first term but slipped behind after half time as the home side added 9 goals to their 3 across the second half. Jed Walter and Ben King each kicked 2 goals for the Suns, while the opposition's top performer finished with 4 goals and strong inside-50 work.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a challenging stretch where the Suns have struggled to maintain momentum across four quarters. Despite flashes of attacking intent and strong individual contributions, the side has found it difficult to convert opportunities into consistent scoreboard pressure, leaving them searching for answers heading into the final weeks.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder numbers are not yet confirmed in the data, but the Suns sit outside the top eight with a points differential that reflects heavy defeats in recent outings. Their percentage remains under pressure after conceding high scores, though a narrow win last round provided a small boost to the for-and-against ledger.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 18: Lost to Adelaide Crows 49-128
Round 19: Lost to Western Bulldogs 68-77
Round 20: Lost to Carlton Blues 97-110
Round 21: Lost to Melbourne Demons 105-114
Round 22: Defeated Greater Western Sydney Giants 79-77

Four losses and one win across the stretch highlight inconsistency, with the narrow victory offering the only positive result.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Suns have generally failed to cover the spread in heavy defeats, though they showed enough fight in the narrow win to suggest they can stay competitive when the margin is tight. Totals have trended under in several low-scoring road games, but the side has pushed games over the line when playing at home.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Attack has relied heavily on a small group of forwards creating chances inside 50, but disposal efficiency and contested ball work have been inconsistent. Defensively the Suns have conceded too many easy entries and goals from turnover, with tackle counts and pressure acts not translating into enough stops. Touk Miller has been a standout with high disposal numbers and clearances across multiple weeks.

Player Highlights

Touk Miller: Continues to lead the midfield with 20+ disposals and strong clearance work in most outings.
Jed Walter: Kicked multiple goals in the latest game and showed strong marking inside 50.
Ben King: Reliable target up forward, adding goals and contested marks despite limited supply.
Leonardo Lombard: Provided drive from half-forward with goals and inside-50 entries.
Bailey Humphrey: Strong ball-winning and score involvements in the middle.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The Match Bombcard missed the mark on the latest result, underestimating the opposition's ability to pull away after half time. A light-hearted reminder that even the best cards can be punished when the Suns fail to convert early chances into a bigger lead.

Outlook / What to Watch

Gold Coast Suns will need to tighten their defensive structure and improve conversion inside 50 if they are to remain competitive in the final rounds. Focus will be on maintaining contested possession and limiting opposition entries, with the side looking to build on the narrow recent win to finish the season strongly.

GCS

vs

GWS

Aug 9 1:10pm ·Corroboree Group Oval Manuka ·Round 22

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1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Greater Western Sydney Giants host Gold Coast Suns at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka in Round 22, a contest that could shape both clubs’ late-season trajectories. The Giants enter with momentum after securing two victories in their past five outings, while the Suns have endured a tougher stretch, dropping their last five matches. Gold Coast Suns have struggled to maintain consistency, averaging 88.8 points scored and conceding 93.8 per game across recent form. Their last five results produced margins of losses by 6, 79, 9, 13 and 9 points, yielding an average defeat margin of 23.2 points. Greater Western Sydney Giants, by contrast, average 89.2 points for and 90.1 against. Their results show wins by 21, 13 and 12 points alongside losses by 3 and 51, reflecting a side capable of controlling games when structure holds. Statistically the contest sits on a knife-edge. Both teams post similar scoring averages, yet the Giants’ home environment and slightly superior defensive record suggest they will dictate tempo. The Suns have been outscored in the second half of most recent fixtures, a trend the Giants can exploit through midfield pressure and forward entries. Betting markets have installed Greater Western Sydney Giants as 17.5- to 18.5-point favourites, with totals hovering around 153.5-157.5. The line looks fair given the Suns’ average losing margin of 23 points on the road; however, Gold Coast’s capacity to keep games within three goals in three of their past five outings offers value on the plus side if they can limit turnovers. Totals appear slightly low relative to the combined season averages near 180, hinting at a game that could exceed 160 points if both sides find rhythm early. Expect the Giants to use their home-ground advantage and cleaner recent ball movement to establish a lead by half-time. Gold Coast will need to improve second-half execution to stay competitive. The prediction is a Greater Western Sydney Giants victory by 16 to 24 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Gold Coast Suns visit Greater Western Sydney Giants. The approved Over 77.5 on Greater Western Sydney Giants carries True 62% and 3% edge. This team total reinforces the projected game shape where GWS exceeds the line at home. The play aligns totals with season averages and projects the Giants accumulating beyond 77.5 points against the Suns. All elements tie together around GWS scoring output driving the result, with the edge calculation confirming value in the team total call holding through the contest.

⚡Quarter Time Report

At quarter time, Gold Coast Suns lead Greater Western Sydney Giants 22-16 after an open, inaccurate first term at Manuka Oval. The Suns kicked three goals to two, with Ben King and Touk Miller providing early forward threat while GWS responded through Harvey Thomas and Max Gruzewski. Both sides were wasteful, combining for eight behinds, reflecting rushed entries and contested ball wins rather than clean transition. Momentum sits marginally with the visitors, who controlled the opening five minutes and maintained a narrow advantage despite GWS finishing the quarter strongly. The low-scoring stanza (38 total points) sits below most Q1 totals lines, hinting at a tighter, lower-output contest than pre-game averages suggested. From a betting lens, the Suns have already covered several Q1 spreads of +3.5, while full-game totals around 142.5 remain well under pace. GWS will look to use home-ground structure and midfield pressure in the second quarter to erase the deficit, but Gold Coast’s early composure offers a platform. Expect the game to open up, yet the current tempo suggests caution on overs. The takeaway is a narrow Suns advantage that keeps multiple markets live heading into the second term.

Probabilities

48-52

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Gold Coast Suns +14.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

51-55

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 142.5 at 1.92 (SportsBet)

52-56

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Greater Western Sydney Giants -7.5 at 1.94 (Ladbrokes)

49-53

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 71.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Lean to Under 63.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

Greater Western Sydney Giants

Under

Lean to Under 78.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Greater Western Sydney Giants trail Gold Coast Suns 25-35 after a low-scoring, error-strewn opening half at Manuka Oval. The Suns capitalised on early forward entries, booting five goals to three, while both sides struggled with accuracy. Gold Coast’s midfield pressure and cleaner ball movement allowed them to establish a 10-point buffer despite the Giants enjoying home-ground advantage. Scoring has been well below season averages, with only 60 points registered across the two quarters. Momentum sits with the Suns, who have won the majority of contested possessions and restricted GWS to inefficient entries. From a betting perspective the total remains well under the 140.5-144.5 lines, while the Suns have already covered several halftime spreads. Greater Western Sydney will need a sharp response in the third term to claw back the deficit and challenge the pre-game line of -13.5 to -14.5. Gold Coast must maintain their structure to avoid the second-half fade that has plagued them recently. Expect the Giants to push the tempo after the break, but the Suns’ current lead gives them a tangible edge heading into the second half.

Probabilities

58-65

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Gold Coast Suns +13.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

62-68

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Under 142.5 at 1.92 (SportsBet)

55-62

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Greater Western Sydney Giants -6.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

52-58

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Over 71.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

Over

Lean to Gold Coast Suns Over 63.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

Greater Western Sydney Giants

Under

Lean to Greater Western Sydney Giants Under 78.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time the Gold Coast Suns hold a 68-56 lead over the Greater Western Sydney Giants after a high-scoring third term that produced 10 goals. The Suns have been the more efficient side, converting forward entries through Touk Miller (three goals) and Ben King (two goals), while GWS relied on Aaron Cadman and Toby Greene to stay in touch. Momentum sits with Gold Coast, who have won the last two quarters and restricted GWS to just eight behinds for the match so far. The total score of 124 points already sits close to several full-game lines, and the Suns’ 68 points have cleared multiple team-total markets. From a betting perspective the game is trending toward an over on the Suns’ full-game total and a potential cover on their spread. With one quarter remaining, GWS need a rapid response in the midfield to manufacture enough scoring opportunities to bridge the 12-point gap. The Giants’ home-ground structure has not yet materialised, leaving them vulnerable if the Suns maintain their current intensity. Expect Gold Coast to dictate the final term unless GWS can force turnovers and transition quickly.

Probabilities

58-65

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Gold Coast Suns +14.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

62-68

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 142.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

55-62

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Gold Coast Suns +7.5 covering at 1.88 (Ladbrokes)

60-66

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 71.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

Over

Very Strong lean to Gold Coast Suns Over 63.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

Greater Western Sydney Giants

Under

Strong lean to Greater Western Sydney Giants Under 78.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 77.5 (Greater Western Sydney Giants) Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	77.5	1.83	62.0%	3.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 77.5 (Greater Western Sydney Giants) Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	77.5	1.83	62.0%	3.0%	T1	1u	L

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Corroboree Group Oval Manuka MATCHCAST -
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
GCS Gold Coast Suns
GWS Greater Western Sydney Giants

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Suns secured a narrow two-point victory, finishing 79 to 77 after a tense final term. They booted 11 goals and 13 behinds while restricting the opposition to 11.11. Bailey Humphrey and Touk Miller led the scoring with strong contributions up forward.

Season Story So Far

After a challenging run of results, the latest win provides a timely boost. The side has shown resilience in close contests and will look to build momentum heading into the final stretch.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The Suns sit in a mid-table position with competitive points and percentage. Their points for and against reflect a balanced but still developing attack and defence.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 17: Loss to Collingwood Magpies 98-104
Round 18: Loss to Adelaide Crows 49-128
Round 19: Loss to Western Bulldogs 68-77
Round 20: Loss to Carlton Blues 97-110
Round 21: Loss to Melbourne Demons 105-114

A tough sequence of results before the most recent turnaround.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Suns have been competitive in several tight games but have struggled to cover spreads in losses. Totals have varied depending on the opposition's defensive structure.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries and contested possessions have been key focus areas. Standout work rates from the midfield have created opportunities, though converting those chances remains a priority. Tackle pressure has been solid in patches.

Player Highlights

Touk Miller: 23 disposals, 9 tackles and 3 goals in the latest outing.
Bailey Humphrey: Strong forward pressure with 19 disposals and 2 goals.
Ben King: Consistent goal threat across recent matches.
Jed Walter: Delivered 12 disposals and 3 goals in his most recent appearance.
Nick Holman: Provided valuable midfield minutes and clean ball use.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No active Match Bombcard data available this round. The focus remains on building form rather than betting angles.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Suns travel to the Gabba to face Brisbane Lions in round 23. Expect a high-intensity local derby with both sides pushing for late-season points. The Suns will need strong midfield output and efficient forward entries to challenge at the venue. A tight scoring affair is likely, with the spread and totals markets likely to be influenced by how well the Suns handle the Lions' pressure game.

MEL

vs

GCS

Aug 2 3:15pm ·People First Stadium ·Round 21

-

1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Melbourne Demons head to People First Stadium in Round 21 with a clear edge in form and scoring efficiency against a Gold Coast Suns side struggling to find consistency. The visitors enter the contest off a mixed but generally competitive run, while the hosts have endured a tough stretch marked by defensive lapses and low scoring outputs. Melbourne’s recent performances show a team capable of both explosive wins and occasional lapses. Across their last five outings they have secured three victories, posting scores of 125, 111 and 92 while holding opponents to 90, 65 and 76 respectively. Their two defeats came by 17 and 20 points, yet their season-long averages of 97.63 points scored and 90.58 conceded reflect a side that generally controls games through the midfield. Gold Coast, by contrast, have lost their past five matches, managing just 29, 98, 49, 68 and 97 points in those games while conceding 80, 104, 128, 77 and 110. Their averages sit at 87.95 for and 92.74 against, highlighting an attack that has been repeatedly contained. Statistically the Demons hold the advantage in both attack and defence. Their higher average total (roughly 188 points per game) suggests they are more likely to push the scoreboard, whereas Gold Coast’s lower output points to ongoing issues converting opportunities. Margin trends reinforce this: Melbourne’s wins have come by an average of 32 points, while Gold Coast’s defeats have often been by double digits, including several heavy losses. Key areas to watch include Melbourne’s ability to win contested ball and transition quickly, areas where the Suns have been vulnerable. Gold Coast will need to improve their forward efficiency and reduce turnovers if they are to stay competitive at home. Betting markets have installed Melbourne as modest favourites, with spreads listed around -4.5 to -5.5. Given the Demons’ recent margins and superior averages, they look well placed to cover. The total line sits near 180.5-181.5; with both sides trending toward moderate scoring games, the under appears the sharper play. Expect Melbourne to prevail by 12 to 22 points in a controlled performance that exploits Gold Coast’s recent defensive frailties.

✏️ Game Analysis

Melbourne Demons face Gold Coast Suns at the Suns home ground. Melbourne's superior recent form positions them as favourites, yet the approved play targets the Over 86.5 on Gold Coast Suns team total. This bet at odds 1.88 with a True% of 38 and Edge of -4% projects a game shape where Gold Coast contributes substantially to the scoring. The team total line reinforces expectations of the Suns pushing the total upward, aligning with a contest that sees both sides engaged offensively. Melbourne's percentage advantage suggests control, but the Suns' output is projected to exceed the 86.5 benchmark. This call highlights the projected balance where Gold Coast avoids a low-scoring shutdown.

⚡Quarter Time Report

After a high-tempo opening term at People First Stadium, Melbourne Demons lead Gold Coast Suns 30-27. The Demons kicked five goals straight, with Jacob van Rooyen, Harry Sharp, Kysaiah Pickett, Joel Fitzgerald and Bayley Fritsch all finding the big sticks. Gold Coast replied with four majors from Ben King, Jed Walter (two) and Ben Long, plus three behinds. The visitors’ efficiency inside 50 was the difference, converting every shot while the Suns wasted opportunities. Melbourne’s contested ball work and quick transitions set the tone, exploiting Gold Coast’s early turnovers. Betting markets had installed the Demons as 4.5-5.5 point favourites; they have delivered exactly that margin through the opening 30 minutes. The total sat near 184.5-185.5 pre-game, and the 57-point quarter keeps both sides on track for a moderate scoring affair. Gold Coast will need to clean up their forward entries and reduce errors if they are to stay competitive over the remaining three quarters. Melbourne’s ability to control the midfield and transition quickly remains the key advantage heading into the second term.

Probabilities

52-62

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -5.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

48-58

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 184.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

53-63

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -3.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

47-57

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 92.5 at 1.85 (TAB)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Under

Lean to Under 94.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Lean to Under 89.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime, Gold Coast Suns hold a slender 54-50 lead over Melbourne Demons at People First Stadium. Both sides kicked eight goals in the opening two quarters, but the Suns added six behinds to Melbourne’s two, giving them the narrow advantage. The contest has been physical and low-scoring, with neither team able to establish sustained dominance. Gold Coast showed improved forward efficiency in the second term, led by Jed Walter’s three goals, while Melbourne relied on Bayley Fritsch’s two majors and strong midfield rotation. Total scoring sits at 104 points, well below the 185.5 full-game line. Momentum has shifted slightly toward the Suns after they outscored the Demons 32-26 in the second quarter. From a betting perspective, the tight margin keeps full-game spreads live, while the under total remains on track. Melbourne’s superior season averages suggest they will push harder after the break, yet Gold Coast’s home resilience and current lead make a second-half upset possible. Expect a more open third quarter as both teams chase scoreboard momentum.

Probabilities

48-55%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Gold Coast Suns +5.5 covering at 1.89 (SportsBet)

52-58%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 185.5 at 1.90 (Dabble AU)

45-52%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -2.5 covering at 1.92 (Neds)

48-55%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 91.5 at 1.90 (Neds)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Over

Lean to Melbourne Demons Over 94.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Gold Coast Suns

Over

Lean to Gold Coast Suns Over 89.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Melbourne Demons hold a one-point lead over Gold Coast Suns, 87-86, after a high-scoring third quarter that produced 69 points. The match has been remarkably even, with both sides trading goals and neither able to establish a meaningful buffer. Melbourne’s efficiency in front of goal has kept them narrowly ahead despite Gold Coast’s strong home push. Scoring momentum has clearly lifted since half-time, when the total stood at just 104. The Demons have edged the midfield battle but the Suns remain dangerous on the break. From a betting perspective the total line of 185.5 looks under threat given the third-quarter surge. Melbourne’s -5.5 spread remains live with a full quarter remaining. Gold Coast sit at 86 against their 89.5 team total while Melbourne are at 87 versus 94.5, leaving both under lines still mathematically possible but under pressure. Expect the final term to remain open and high-scoring as both teams push for a decisive advantage.

Probabilities

52-58

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -5.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

62-68

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 185.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

50-56

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -2.5 covering at 1.92 (Neds)

60-66

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 92.5 at 1.95 (TAB)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

under

Lean to Melbourne Demons Under 94.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Gold Coast Suns

under

Lean to Gold Coast Suns Under 89.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 86.5 (Gold Coast Suns) Melbourne Demons vs Gold Coast Suns	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	86.5	1.88	38.0%	-4.0%	T3	5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 86.5 (Gold Coast Suns) Melbourne Demons vs Gold Coast Suns	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	86.5	1.88	38.0%	-4.0%	T3	5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

People First Stadium MATCHCAST -
People First Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
MEL Melbourne Demons
GCS Gold Coast Suns

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Suns fell short by 9 points, finishing with 105 (16.9) to the opposition's 114 (18.6). They led at half time after a strong second term but were outscored in the second half. Jed Walter and Ben Long both kicked 3 goals for the Suns, while the opposition’s best performer also finished with 3 goals.

Season Story So Far

The latest result continues a run of narrow and heavy defeats that have tested the group. Despite flashes of attacking intent and strong individual contributions, the team has struggled to close out games across recent weeks.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Current ladder position, points and percentage are not available in the supplied data. Points for and against figures will be updated once official standings are released.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 17: lost 98-104 to Collingwood Magpies
Round 18: lost 49-128 to Adelaide Crows
Round 19: lost 68-77 to Western Bulldogs
Round 20: lost 97-110 to Carlton Blues
Round 21: lost 105-114 to Melbourne Demons

Five straight losses have left the side searching for momentum heading into the back end of the season.

Betting Trends & Performance

Spread and totals performance data is not provided in the current dataset, so no clear trends can be assessed at this stage.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward entries have been inconsistent, with key targets working hard to create opportunities. Disposal efficiency and contested ball work remain areas of focus, while the defensive unit has been under sustained pressure in recent outings. Standout efforts in tackles and inside-50s have come from experienced midfielders driving the ball forward.

Player Highlights

Jed Walter: 3 goals, 12 disposals and strong marking presence inside 50.
Ben King: 3 goals from limited opportunities, showing his usual threat.
Touk Miller: 21 disposals, 5 clearances and tireless midfield work.
Ben Long: 3 goals and 6 disposals in a lively forward role.
Jarrod Witts: Strong hitout work and contested possessions in the ruck.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No Match Bombcard data is available, so performance against the recommended bets cannot be reviewed.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Gold Coast Suns will look to regroup and sharpen their contest work ahead of their next assignment. Focus will be on maintaining forward pressure, improving second-half resilience and finding the right balance between attack and defence at the venue.

GCS

vs

CAR

Jul 25 1:05pm ·Marvel Stadium ·Round 20

-

1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Carlton Blues host Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium in Round 20, a contest that pits two sides with contrasting recent trajectories against each other. The Suns arrive on the back of five straight defeats, while Carlton have shown flashes of dominance interspersed with inconsistency. Gold Coast’s last five outings have produced scores of 97, 29, 98, 49 and 68 points. Their defensive frailties are evident, conceding 113, 80, 104, 128 and 77 respectively. The average losing margin across those games sits at 32 points, with three of the five defeats coming by 50 or more. Their season-long averages of 87.44 points scored and 91.78 conceded reflect a team struggling to control tempo. Carlton enter with a 3-2 record in their past five matches, posting 88, 117, 74, 39 and 69 points. Their wins included comfortable margins of 23 and 53 points, though two heavy losses of 64 and 21 points highlight vulnerability when structure breaks down. At 79.78 points per game scored and 87.61 conceded, the Blues sit slightly below the Suns offensively but have demonstrated greater capacity for momentum swings. The statistical comparison favours a moderate-scoring affair. Both teams average under 180 combined points across recent fixtures, aligning closely with the current total market hovering at 168.5–171.5. Carlton’s superior recent winning margins suggest they are better equipped to cover the 5.5–6.5 point spread on offer, particularly at a venue where they have historically performed reliably. Tactically, Carlton will look to exploit Gold Coast’s porous defence through sustained forward pressure, while the Suns must improve ball movement to avoid the blowouts that have defined their recent road trips. The absence of strong betting signals in prior analysis leaves the current line as the clearest guide, with Carlton installed as clear favourites. Carlton should prevail by 12 to 18 points in a contest that stays under the total.

✏️ Game Analysis

Gold Coast Suns visit Carlton Blues with the approved play backing Carlton team total at 2.5 units. This wager shows a true probability of 72 percent and a 5 percent edge at odds of 1.67. The selection points to a game shape where Carlton controls possession and scoring flow to surpass the total. Gold Coast Suns face difficulty containing Carlton's output across the contest. The bet reinforces expectations of Carlton dictating terms and building a decisive points advantage. No other lines or props are required to validate the projection. The edge on Carlton team total stands as the clearest indicator of the expected outcome shape.

⚡Quarter Time Report

At quarter time, Carlton Blues lead Gold Coast Suns 22-20 in a high-tempo opening at Marvel Stadium. The Suns exploded early with three goals in the first nine minutes through Walter, Humphrey and Patterson, but Carlton responded with three unanswered majors of their own to snatch the narrow advantage. The 42-point quarter already sits near the top end of Q1 totals lines. Momentum has shifted toward the Blues after their strong finish to the term. Carlton’s structure and forward pressure have begun to expose Gold Coast’s defensive issues that have plagued their recent road games. From a betting perspective, the narrow lead keeps the full-game spread live while the elevated scoring pace suggests the total may trend higher than the 173.5-175.5 market. The second half opens with both sides likely to adjust, but Carlton’s home advantage and better recent form give them the edge to extend their lead. Gold Coast must improve ball movement to avoid another blowout. Key takeaway: expect Carlton to gradually pull away while the game stays competitive enough to test the spread but potentially exceed the total line.

Probabilities

52-58%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Carlton Blues -6.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

54-60%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Over 175.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

53-59%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Carlton Blues -2.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

51-57%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Over 87.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Lean to Under 83.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

Carlton Blues

Under

Lean to Under 89.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime, Carlton Blues lead Gold Coast Suns 49-46 in a low-scoring, tightly contested match at Marvel Stadium. The first half produced just 95 points, well below season averages, with both sides struggling to convert opportunities. Gold Coast exploded early with three quick goals but Carlton responded with superior structure and forward pressure to edge ahead by three points. Key contributors included multiple goal kickers for both teams, yet defensive pressure has kept the tempo slow. From a betting perspective, the under on the full-game total looks well positioned given the current pace. Carlton’s slight edge in recent form and home advantage suggests they remain favourites to cover the 5.5–6.5 point line. Gold Coast must lift ball movement and reduce turnovers to avoid another blowout in the second half. The low total and narrow margin create a coin-flip feel for second-half markets, though Carlton’s momentum gives them the slight edge heading into the break.

Probabilities

52-58

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Carlton Blues -5.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

55-61

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Under 175.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

51-57

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Carlton Blues -2.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

53-59

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Under 87.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Lean to Under 83.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

Carlton Blues

Under

Lean to Under 89.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Carlton hold a 76-64 lead at three-quarter time after a controlled third quarter where they added 27 points to Gold Coast’s 18. The Blues have now outscored the Suns in each of the last two quarters and lead by 12 points, a margin that has grown steadily since the 49-46 halftime scoreline. Gold Coast’s forward entries have been inefficient, managing only three goals in the third term despite some promising transitions. Carlton’s midfield has dominated stoppages, allowing them to dictate tempo and limit the Suns’ ability to build momentum. From a betting perspective, Carlton’s current 12-point lead sits comfortably above the -5.5 to -6.5 lines, while the game total of 140 remains well below the 173.5-175.5 marks. Team totals show Carlton already at 76 against lines clustered around 89.5, positioning them to push over in the final term. Gold Coast sit at 64 against 83.5-84.5 unders, keeping that outcome on track. The Blues have the clearer momentum and structural edge heading into the last quarter.

Probabilities

68-75%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Strong lean to Carlton Blues -6.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

52-58%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 175.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

60-66%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Carlton Blues -3.5 covering at 1.89 (Unibet)

55-61%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 87.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Strong lean to Under 83.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

Carlton Blues

Over

Very Strong lean to Over 89.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Carlton Blues Gold Coast Suns vs Carlton Blues	Head to Head	TAB	0	1.67	72.0%	5.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Carlton Blues Gold Coast Suns vs Carlton Blues	Head to Head	TAB	0	1.67	72.0%	5.0%	T2	2.5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -
Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
GCS Gold Coast Suns
CAR Carlton Blues

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Suns fell short against the opposition by 13 points, finishing with 15 goals and 7 behinds for 97 points to the visitors' 16 goals and 14 behinds for 110. They led briefly in patches but were outscored in the final term after a tight third quarter. The opposition's key forwards booted three goals apiece, while Ben King led the Suns' attack with three majors and strong marking inside 50.

Season Story So Far

The latest defeat continues a challenging run where the side has struggled to close out games and maintain scoreboard pressure across four quarters. Inconsistent output in front of goal and periods of defensive lapses have defined recent weeks.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With no official ladder data available at this stage, the Suns' recent results show a points differential heavily in the negative, reflecting both low scoring outputs and concessions in several matches.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 15: Gold Coast Suns 14.13 (97) lost to Hawthorn Hawks 17.11 (113)
Round 16: Fremantle Dockers 11.14 (80) defeated Gold Coast Suns 3.11 (29)
Round 17: Gold Coast Suns 15.8 (98) lost to Collingwood Magpies 15.14 (104)
Round 18: Adelaide Crows 19.14 (128) defeated Gold Coast Suns 7.7 (49)
Round 19: Gold Coast Suns 9.14 (68) lost to Western Bulldogs 11.11 (77)

Five straight losses highlight ongoing issues with converting opportunities and containing opposition momentum.

Betting Trends & Performance

No betting data was provided, but the pattern of results suggests the Suns have been underperforming relative to expectations in both margins and totals in recent outings.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been limited in several games, with disposal efficiency dropping under pressure. Touk Miller has been a standout in contested possessions and clearances, while the forward line has relied heavily on a small number of contributors to generate scoring shots. Defensively, the side has conceded high volumes of uncontested marks in transition.

Player Highlights

Ben King: Multiple games with three goals and strong contested marking.
Jed Walter: Consistent goal threat with bags of two or three across the stretch.
Touk Miller: Elite disposal numbers and clearance work, often exceeding 20 possessions.
Jarrod Witts: Reliable hitout advantage and ruck impact in several matches.
Joel Jeffrey: Provided three goals and solid defensive pressure in the latest outing.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No Match Bombcard data available. The recent form offers little in the way of positive betting angles, with the side failing to cover spreads or totals in the majority of these games.

Outlook / What to Watch

Next match details are not yet available. When the fixture is confirmed, focus will be on how the Suns manage key match-ups at the venue and whether they can lift their scoring output against the direct opponent.

BUL

vs

GCS

Jul 19 3:15pm ·People First Stadium ·Round 19

-

3 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Western Bulldogs head to People First Stadium in Round 19 looking to build momentum against a Gold Coast Suns side desperate to arrest a concerning slide. With both teams hovering around mid-table, the contest carries significant implications for their respective seasons. The Bulldogs enter with a 3-2 record across their past five outings. Their wins have come by margins of 6, 22 and 16 points, while the two defeats were heavy, by 57 and 35. This inconsistency is reflected in their season averages of 83 points scored and 89.94 conceded. Gold Coast, by contrast, have lost all five of their most recent matches, with an average losing margin of 39.4 points. Their scoring has been erratic, ranging from a low of 29 to a high of 98, and they are conceding 92.65 points per game on average. Statistically the sides are closely aligned in attack, yet the Bulldogs have shown greater ability to win close contests. Gold Coast’s defensive lapses have been pronounced on the road, where three of their last five losses occurred by 45 points or more. At home the Suns have at least kept games within reach until late, but their overall form suggests vulnerability against a Bulldogs outfit capable of capitalising on momentum swings. Key personnel will be vital. The Bulldogs rely on their midfield to control tempo and create forward entries, while Gold Coast need their forwards to convert opportunities more efficiently than in recent weeks. Both sides average totals near 172-180 points across recent matches, aligning closely with the current line of 170.5-173.5. Bookmakers have installed Gold Coast as slight home favourites at -2.5 to -3.5, yet the Bulldogs’ superior recent results and lower average losing margins suggest they are well placed to cover. A total under 173.5 appears the sharper angle given both teams’ defensive trends. Expect a tight, physical contest. The Bulldogs should prevail by 8 to 15 points, taking advantage of Gold Coast’s extended losing streak and away-form concerns.

✏️ Game Analysis

Western Bulldogs visit Gold Coast Suns with markets focused on the visitors' output. The Western Bulldogs line at 2.13 carries a 45% true probability and -3% edge, while the over 79.5 Western Bulldogs at 1.88 shows 51% true probability and 1% edge. The over 19.5 Western Bulldogs at 1.76 sits at 50% true probability. Together these positions project a contest in which the Bulldogs clear the higher team-total thresholds and remain competitive on the head-to-head. The combination reinforces an expected game shape built around sustained Western Bulldogs scoring rather than a low-output arm-wrestle, aligning the spread, team total and first-quarter total calls around the same upward bias for the Bulldogs against the Suns.

⚡Quarter Time Report

After the opening term at People First Stadium, the Western Bulldogs hold a 14-8 lead over the Gold Coast Suns. Marcus Bontempelli’s two goals inside the opening 20 minutes gave the visitors clear ascendancy, while the Suns managed just one major through Leonardo Lombard. The low-scoring quarter (22 points total) reflected cautious structures and strong defensive pressure from both sides. Bulldogs entries were more direct and clinical, converting two of their three forward-50 chances into goals. Gold Coast generated volume but lacked polish inside 50. Momentum sits clearly with the Bulldogs, who have already established a six-point buffer and superior clearance work. From a betting lens the under 41.5 in Q1 looks the sharp result, yet full-game markets remain wide open. The Bulldogs’ ability to capitalise on transition will test Gold Coast’s defensive structures across the next three quarters. Expect the Suns to push higher up the ground in Q2 to manufacture more entries and reduce the deficit before half-time.

Probabilities

52-58%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Western Bulldogs +5.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

48-54%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 165.5 at 1.92 (TABtouch)

50-56%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Western Bulldogs +3.5 covering at 1.85 (TAB)

47-53%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 82.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Western Bulldogs

under

Lean to Under 79.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Gold Coast Suns

under

Lean to Under 84.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Gold Coast Suns lead the Western Bulldogs 42-36 at People First Stadium after a low-scoring, inaccurate opening half. The Suns edged the first term and extended the advantage in the second, converting six goals to five while both sides sprayed opportunities. Marcus Bontempelli’s two early majors gave the Bulldogs brief momentum, yet Gold Coast responded with goals from Lombard, Long, Humphrey, Petracca and King to stay in front. Total scoring sits well under the 165.5-166.5 full-game lines, reflecting defensive pressure and poor conversion. Gold Coast hold a narrow but tangible edge in territory and forward entries. From a betting perspective the contest remains live. The Suns’ -5.5 full-game line at 1.90 (Neds) has been covered comfortably so far, while the total under 165.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet) is tracking strongly. Second-half markets offer similar value given the slow tempo. Expect the Bulldogs to push harder after the break, but Gold Coast’s home resilience and current lead suggest they remain the more likely side to control the second half.

Probabilities

52-58

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Gold Coast Suns -5.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

55-61

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 165.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

53-59

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Gold Coast Suns -3.5 covering at 1.95 (TAB)

54-60

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 82.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Western Bulldogs

under

Lean to Under 79.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Gold Coast Suns

under

Lean to Under 86.5 at 1.85 (TAB)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Western Bulldogs hold a commanding 69-46 lead at three-quarter time after a dominant third quarter where they kicked five goals to one. The Bulldogs have won the midfield battle through Marcus Bontempelli and Matthew Kennedy, generating clean forward entries and capitalising on Gold Coast’s defensive lapses. Gold Coast have managed only six goals for the match and continue to struggle converting opportunities despite some promising moments from Leonardo Lombard and Ben King. The 23-point margin reflects the Bulldogs’ superior efficiency and ability to capitalise on momentum swings. From a betting perspective, the Bulldogs have already covered most available spreads and are well placed to extend their advantage. The total has reached 115 points with one term remaining, keeping the Over 165.5 line live but requiring a strong final quarter. Gold Coast’s inability to arrest their five-game losing streak leaves them vulnerable to further damage. Expect the Bulldogs to manage the contest professionally and push the margin beyond 30 points by the final siren.

Probabilities

88-94

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Very Strong lean to Western Bulldogs +5.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

52-58

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Over 165.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

85-91

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Very Strong lean to Western Bulldogs +5.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

55-61

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Over 82.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Western Bulldogs

Over

Extremely Strong lean to Western Bulldogs Over 89.5 at 1.42 (TABtouch)

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Strong lean to Gold Coast Suns Under 86.5 at 1.85 (TAB)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 79.5 (Western Bulldogs) Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	79.5	1.88	51.0%	1.0%	T1	1u	L
Over 19.5 (Western Bulldogs) Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns	1Q Team Totals	SportsBet	19.5	1.76	50.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	L
Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns	Head to Head	SportsBet	0	2.13	45.0%	-3.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns	Head to Head	SportsBet	0	2.13	45.0%	-3.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 79.5 (Western Bulldogs) Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	79.5	1.88	51.0%	1.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 19.5 (Western Bulldogs) Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast Suns	1Q Team Totals	SportsBet	19.5	1.76	50.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	L

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

People First Stadium MATCHCAST -
People First Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
BUL Western Bulldogs
GCS Gold Coast Suns

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Suns fell short by 9 points, finishing with 9 goals and 14 behinds for 68 points against the opposition's 11 goals and 11 behinds for 77. They led at half time but were outscored heavily in the third term before a tighter final quarter. Leonardo Lombard and Christian Petracca each kicked two goals as the standout scorers, while the opposition's best performer booted three.

Season Story So Far

A run of narrow defeats has left the Suns searching for consistency, with the latest result continuing a pattern of competitive efforts that have not quite translated into wins. The side has shown glimpses of attacking intent but has struggled to close out games.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With ladder data currently unavailable, the Suns sit on the back of five straight losses and will be focused on climbing the table through improved percentage and results in the coming rounds.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 14: Loss to Geelong Cats
Round 15: Loss to Hawthorn Hawks
Round 16: Loss to Fremantle Dockers
Round 17: Loss to Collingwood Magpies
Round 18: Loss to Adelaide Crows

Five consecutive defeats have tested the group's resilience heading into the latter part of the season.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Suns have tended to play to tighter margins than expected in recent outings, with totals often landing under the projected line due to lower-scoring second halves.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been solid at times, but conversion remains an issue. Touk Miller's work rate through the midfield has been a constant, while the forward line has relied on key targets to create opportunities. Defensively, the side has conceded heavily in patches, particularly after half time.

Player Highlights

Touk Miller: 39 disposals and 9 clearances in the most recent outing, driving much of the midfield drive.
Ben King: Continued to provide a target up forward with consistent goal threats across the last month.
Jed Walter: Showed promising signs with multiple goals and strong contested marking.
Jarrod Witts: Dominant in the ruck with high hit-out numbers and strong follow-up work.
Leonardo Lombard: Two goals and strong inside-50 involvement in the latest match.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No active betting card was available for assessment this round. The Suns' recent form suggests value may lie in player disposal props rather than team totals until the attack finds better efficiency.

Outlook / What to Watch

Gold Coast Suns will need to tighten their third-quarter output and improve forward conversion if they are to turn recent efforts into results. Focus will remain on building momentum through strong midfield contested ball and limiting opposition entries.

GCS

vs

ADE

Jul 11 8:10pm ·Adelaide Oval ·Round 18

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2 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Adelaide Crows host Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Oval in Round 18, a contest that pits the home side’s consistent execution against a visitor side searching for answers after a difficult run. With the Crows sitting comfortably inside the top eight and the Suns clinging to faint finals hopes, the match carries clear implications for both clubs’ seasons. Gold Coast enters the contest on the back of five consecutive defeats, during which they have averaged just 71.8 points per game while conceding 101.6. The margins tell their own story: losses by 31, 45, 16, 51 and 6 points reveal an inability to sustain four-quarter pressure. In contrast, Adelaide has secured four wins from its past five outings, posting an average winning margin of 25 points in victories and showing particular strength in the second half. Statistically the sides are close on offence—Gold Coast averages 91.1 points for and 90.4 against, while Adelaide sits at 89.2 for and 80.1 against—but the defensive gap is meaningful. The Crows have restricted opponents to sub-80 scores in three of their last five games, underlining a structure that limits transition opportunities. Gold Coast’s porous defence has allowed 100-plus points in three of its past five matches, a trend that rarely survives a trip to Adelaide Oval. Betting markets reflect this disparity. Adelaide is favoured by 18.5–19.5 points across major agencies, with totals set around 152.5–153.5. Gold Coast’s recent losing margins average nearly 30 points, suggesting the Suns have struggled to stay within 20-point lines on the road. The Crows’ superior defensive efficiency and home scoring average of 89 points per game position them to comfortably cover the spread while keeping the total under the bookends. Adelaide should control territory and tempo from the opening bounce. Expect the Crows to win by a 22–32 point margin, extending Gold Coast’s losing sequence and reinforcing Adelaide’s status as a genuine contender.

✏️ Game Analysis

Adelaide Crows host Gold Coast Suns with the approved plays locking in the projected shape. Adelaide Crows -17.5 at True 72% and 9% Edge alongside Adelaide Crows -9.5 at True 68% and 8% Edge both point to the same outcome. These spreads reinforce a game where the Crows control territory early and extend their advantage through the middle stages. The consistent edges confirm Adelaide will cover the larger margin while also clearing the tighter line, leaving little room for Gold Coast Suns to stay in touch. The dual bets align on a decisive home win that exceeds both key numbers without relying on late adjustments.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Adelaide Crows hold a narrow 20-15 lead over Gold Coast Suns after the opening quarter at Adelaide Oval. The home side converted three goals to two, with Joshua Rachele finishing two majors, while Gold Coast managed only three behinds despite two goals from Ben King and Bailey Humphrey. Early territory and contested ball favoured Adelaide, who restricted the Suns to rushed entries and poor conversion. Gold Coast’s five-game losing streak has seen them concede heavily on the road, and that defensive fragility was again apparent in the first term. The low-scoring pattern aligns with both teams’ recent form, particularly Adelaide’s ability to limit opposition transition. From a betting viewpoint the full-game spread of Adelaide -18.5 at 1.90 (Neds) remains live given three quarters remain, while the total of 154.5 at 1.90 (TAB) sits comfortably under projection after only 35 points were scored. Second-half markets open with Adelaide favoured by 4.5–9.5 points. Adelaide’s superior structure and home scoring average position them to extend the margin, though Gold Coast’s inaccuracy could keep the total suppressed. Expect the Crows to control tempo and territory moving forward.

Probabilities

48-52

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Adelaide Crows -18.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

52-56

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Under 154.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

50-54

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Adelaide Crows -4.5 covering at 1.56 (Unibet)

51-55

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Under 70.5 at 2.35 (Unibet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Lean to Under 71.5 at 1.60 (Unibet)

Adelaide Crows

Under

Lean to Under 86.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Adelaide leads Gold Coast 50-23 after a commanding second quarter in which the Crows added 29 points to the Suns’ 10. Adelaide’s midfield control and efficient forward entries produced six goals in the opening 32 minutes of the second term, while Gold Coast managed only one major. The 27-point margin already exceeds the pre-game spread range of 18.5-19.5 and places the Crows in a dominant position for both margin and total markets. Gold Coast’s inability to generate repeat inside-50 entries has kept their scoring suppressed, averaging just 11.5 points per quarter. From a betting standpoint the full-game total line of 154.5 looks under pressure given the current 73-point aggregate and Adelaide’s continued territorial edge. The second-half spread remains fluid, yet Adelaide’s defensive structure suggests they will limit Gold Coast transition opportunities. Momentum clearly favours the home side, who have restricted the Suns to sub-25 scores in both halves so far.

Probabilities

72-78

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Strong lean to Adelaide Crows -18.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

58-64

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 154.5 at 1.95 (Bet Right)

65-71

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Adelaide Crows -4.5 covering at 1.56 (Unibet)

55-61

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 70.5 at 1.56 (Unibet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

under

Strong lean to Under 71.5 at 1.60 (Unibet)

Adelaide Crows

over

Strong lean to Over 86.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Adelaide Crows have dismantled Gold Coast at three-quarter time, leading 90-30 after a 40-point third quarter. The Crows kicked seven goals to one after half-time, extending a 27-point halftime advantage into a 60-point rout. Adelaide’s forward pressure and transition efficiency have overwhelmed a Suns defence that has now conceded 100+ points in three of its past five games. Gold Coast’s four goals have come from isolated moments rather than sustained entries. From a betting perspective the result is effectively decided. Adelaide has already cleared every meaningful team-total line and sits 41 points clear of the -18.5/19.5 spread. With one quarter remaining the only realistic question is margin size and whether the total reaches 154.5.

Probabilities

94-98

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Extremely Strong lean to Adelaide Crows -18.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

58-65

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 154.5 at 1.95 (Bet Right)

92-97

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Extremely Strong lean to Adelaide Crows -18.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

55-62

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 84.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Extremely Strong lean to Under 71.5 at 1.60 (Unibet)

Adelaide Crows

Over

Extremely Strong lean to Over 86.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Adelaide Crows -17.5 Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows	Full Spreads	Neds	-17.5	1.90	72.0%	9.0%	T2	2.5u	W
Adelaide Crows -9.5 Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows	1H Spreads	Unibet	-9.5	1.88	68.0%	8.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Adelaide Crows -17.5 Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows	Full Spreads	Neds	-17.5	1.90	72.0%	9.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Adelaide Crows -9.5 Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows	1H Spreads	Unibet	-9.5	1.88	68.0%	8.0%	T2	2.5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Adelaide Oval MATCHCAST -
Adelaide Oval MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
GCS Gold Coast Suns
ADE Adelaide Crows

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Suns fell short by 79 points, finishing with 7 goals and 7 behinds for 49 points against the opposition's 19 goals and 14 behinds for 128. They led early in patches but were overrun after half time as the visitors piled on 12 goals to just 4. Opposition forward Taylor Walker kicked a bag of 5, while the Suns' Jed Walter was their best with 3 goals.

Season Story So Far

Another tough result caps a difficult stretch where the side has struggled to maintain momentum across four quarters. The latest performance highlighted ongoing issues with converting opportunities and defending transitions, leaving the group searching for consistency.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder numbers are not yet updated, but the recent results place the Suns in the lower half of the competition with a points differential heavily skewed against them. Percentage remains a concern after several high-scoring concessions.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 13: Lost to Brisbane Lions 75-106
Round 14: Lost to Geelong Cats 60-105
Round 15: Lost to Hawthorn Hawks 97-113
Round 16: Lost to Fremantle Dockers 29-80
Round 17: Lost to Collingwood Magpies 98-104

Five straight defeats have tested the group's resolve heading into the back half of the season.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Suns have consistently gone under the total in recent outings, with scoring drying up in the second half of most games. Spread results have also been challenging, with margins often exceeding the line against stronger opposition.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been reasonable at times, but conversion remains an issue. Work rate in the midfield has been solid from a disposal standpoint, yet the side has been unable to limit opposition scoring from turnover. Tackle pressure has varied, with some games showing strong contested ball wins but others lacking the same intensity.

Player Highlights

Ben King: Multiple games with 3-4 goals, providing a consistent target up forward despite limited supply.
Jed Walter: Strong recent form with bags of 4 and 3 goals, plus strong inside-50 involvement.
Jarrod Witts: Reliable hit-out work and contested possessions in the ruck across the stretch.
Touk Miller: Steady disposal numbers and clearance work in the engine room.
Bailey Humphrey: Showed promise with 3 goals and strong contested possessions in the most recent outing.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The Match Bombcard missed the mark again this week with the heavy loss. We own that one — the Suns simply didn't fire in any quarter, and the card's optimistic lean on totals and margins didn't come close. Back to the drawing board.

Outlook / What to Watch

Gold Coast Suns will need to tighten their defensive structure and improve second-half output if they are to turn the corner. Expect a focus on contested ball and forward-half pressure to create more scoring chances at home or away, with the spread likely to be the key betting angle depending on the matchup.

COL

vs

GCS

Jul 4 4:15pm ·People First Stadium ·Round 17

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1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Collingwood Magpies head to People First Stadium in Round 17 looking to extend their strong recent run against a Gold Coast Suns side desperate to arrest a five-game losing streak. With both teams averaging close to 170 points per contest in their last five outings, this matchup offers a clear contrast in momentum and execution. Collingwood enter with three wins from their past five games, including a 34-point victory and a 26-point win in their most recent home appearances. Their scoring has been reliable, posting between 75 and 106 points while keeping three of those opponents under 83. The Magpies’ defensive structure has limited damage on the road too, with narrow losses of just four and eight points showing resilience even in defeat. Gold Coast, by comparison, have struggled to close games. They have conceded 105 points or more in four of their last five matches and have been beaten by an average margin of nearly 30 points across that stretch. Their attack has been inconsistent, ranging from a season-low 29 points to a high of 105, but the Suns have failed to find the scoreboard efficiency needed to match stronger opposition. Statistically, Collingwood’s season averages of 83.5 points scored and 80.1 conceded reflect a balanced, low-error approach. Gold Coast sit slightly higher at 90.6 for and 89.5 against, yet their recent form suggests those numbers are inflated by earlier results rather than current output. The Magpies have also shown the ability to win by comfortable margins when they establish control after half-time. Without established betting lines available, the tactical angle centres on whether Gold Coast can slow Collingwood’s midfield transition. The Suns will need to win the contested ball battle and limit Collingwood’s ability to spread from stoppages if they are to stay competitive. Collingwood should prevail by 20 to 35 points. Their superior recent form, tighter defensive margins, and proven capacity to kick large scores when opportunities arise make them the clear favourite on the road.

✏️ Game Analysis

Collingwood Magpies face Gold Coast Suns with the approved play locked on Over 19.5 Collingwood Magpies. This team-total call at True 50% and Edge 0% sets the projected shape, pointing to Collingwood clearing the line while the overall contest stays aligned with the same scoring rhythm. The bet reinforces a game where Collingwood’s output drives the result rather than a low-output grind. Gold Coast Suns host but the numbers centre on Collingwood reaching the mark, keeping the focus tight on that single approved angle. No other lines or props are referenced, so the story stays fixed on how the Over 19.5 Collingwood Magpies position defines the expected flow from bounce-down onward.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Collingwood Magpies lead Gold Coast Suns 28-20 after a high-tempo opening term at People First Stadium. The visitors struck first through Tim Membrey and Harvey Harrison, establishing early control before Gold Coast responded with three goals of their own from Jed Walter, Ethan Read and Zeke Uwland. Despite the Suns finishing the quarter with more scoring shots, Collingwood’s efficiency and four behinds kept them eight points ahead at the first break. The 48-point total sits just above most Q1 totals lines, reflecting a fast start from both sides. Collingwood’s midfield transition has looked sharper, while Gold Coast’s contested ball work has not yet translated into scoreboard dominance. From a betting perspective the full-game spread of Gold Coast -7.5 remains live given three quarters remain, yet Collingwood’s early momentum suggests value on the plus side. Team totals markets for both sides sit well below current projections, with neither side having reached even half their respective lines. The second half should see both teams settle into more structured patterns, but the early evidence points to a competitive, high-scoring contest ahead.

Probabilities

48-52

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Collingwood Magpies +7.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

51-55

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 171.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

49-53

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Collingwood Magpies +3.5 covering at 1.91 (Ladbrokes)

50-54

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 85.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Collingwood Magpies

Over

Lean to Collingwood Magpies Over 82.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Gold Coast Suns

Over

Lean to Gold Coast Suns Over 89.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Halftime Report

Current Game State: Collingwood leads Gold Coast 57-45 at halftime after a high-scoring opening half. The Magpies established early control with four first-quarter goals before Gold Coast responded with three of their own. Collingwood extended the advantage in the second term despite Gold Coast’s three quick goals early in the quarter. Key Trends & Momentum: Collingwood’s efficiency around goal has been superior, converting eight majors from strong entries. Gold Coast has generated opportunities but remains behind on the scoreboard, trailing by 12 points. The Magpies have maintained a slight edge in general play and transition. Assessment of the Game So Far: Collingwood’s defensive structure has limited Gold Coast’s ability to capitalise on momentum swings. The Suns’ three behinds in the first half reflect some inaccuracy under pressure. Both teams have contributed to a fast-paced contest averaging above the expected rate. Outlook & Probability Assessment: Collingwood enters the second half as favourites. Their ability to win contested ball and transition quickly positions them well to extend the lead. Gold Coast must improve efficiency and reduce turnovers to stay in touch. Key Takeaway: Collingwood’s 12-point buffer and superior conversion give them a platform to control the second half.

Probabilities

52-62

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Collingwood Magpies +7.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

48-58

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 171.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

53-63

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Collingwood Magpies +3.5 covering at 1.91 (Ladbrokes)

47-57

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 85.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Collingwood Magpies

Over

Strong lean to Collingwood Magpies Over 86.5 at 1.60 (Unibet)

Gold Coast Suns

Over

Lean to Gold Coast Suns Over 88.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Collingwood leads Gold Coast 79-72 after a high-scoring, see-sawing contest at People First Stadium. The Magpies established a 12-point halftime advantage through superior midfield spread and efficient transition, then withstood a Suns surge that saw Gold Coast boot four of the first five goals in the third term. Despite the late rally, Collingwood’s defensive structure held firm, restricting the home side to just one behind in the final eight minutes of the quarter. Momentum sits marginally with the visitors, who have won the inside-50 count and contested possession battle across the first three quarters. From a betting lens the total has already reached 151 against the 171.5 line, placing the Over in a commanding position with a full quarter remaining. Collingwood’s 79 points also sit just shy of several 80.5-86.5 team-total unders, keeping those markets live but under pressure. Gold Coast will need a fast start to the final term to bridge both the scoreboard and statistical gaps. Expect Collingwood to manage the contest through the midfield and limit Gold Coast’s transition opportunities, preserving their narrow lead while the total continues to climb.

Probabilities

52-58

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Collingwood Magpies +7.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

78-84

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Strong lean to Over 171.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

55-61

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Collingwood Magpies +3.5 covering at 1.91 (Ladbrokes)

62-68

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Over 85.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Collingwood Magpies

Over

Lean to Collingwood Magpies Over 80.5 at 1.88 (SportsBet)

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Lean to Gold Coast Suns Under 88.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 19.5 (Collingwood Magpies) Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns	1Q Team Totals	Unibet	19.5	1.85	50.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 19.5 (Collingwood Magpies) Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns	1Q Team Totals	Unibet	19.5	1.85	50.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

People First Stadium MATCHCAST -
People First Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
COL Collingwood Magpies
GCS Gold Coast Suns

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Suns fell short by six points, finishing with 15 goals and 8 behinds for 98 against the opposition's 15 goals and 14 behinds for 104. They led at times early but were reeled in, with the opposition adding seven goals in the final term to the Suns' four. Jed Walter and Ben King each kicked three goals for the Suns while the opposition's best performer finished with three goals and strong forward pressure.

Season Story So Far

Recent weeks have been a grind, with the Suns pushing several sides close but coming away without the points. The latest result continues a pattern of competitive efforts that have not quite converted into wins, leaving the group focused on tightening execution in key moments.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With no current ladder data available the Suns sit on the outside looking in, their points and percentage reflecting a season of narrow margins and tough road trips. The differential shows they have been competitive in scoring shots but need to convert more of those opportunities into wins.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 17: Gold Coast Suns 15.8 (98) lost to Collingwood Magpies 15.14 (104)
Round 16: Gold Coast Suns 3.11 (29) lost to Fremantle Dockers 11.14 (80)
Round 15: Gold Coast Suns 14.13 (97) lost to Hawthorn Hawks 17.11 (113)
Round 14: Gold Coast Suns 8.12 (60) lost to Geelong Cats 15.15 (105)
Round 13: Gold Coast Suns 11.9 (75) lost to Brisbane Lions 15.16 (106)

A run of five straight losses, several of them decided by small margins or heavy second-half swings.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Suns have struggled to cover spreads in recent outings, often falling short of totals as well when the opposition takes control after half time. Home games have offered slightly better value but results have not followed.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward entries have been solid at times, with strong work from the tall timber and quick transition players. Defensively the side has conceded too many easy looks in the second halves of recent matches, with tackle numbers and contested possession work needing to lift across the ground.

Player Highlights

Ben King: Multiple games with three or four goals, using his marking strength to create opportunities.
Jed Walter: Consistent goal threat with bags of three and strong inside-50 pressure.
Ben Long: Four-goal haul in one outing and double-figure disposals with strong contested work.
Jarrod Witts: Reliable hit-out numbers and clearance involvement when on the park.
Touk Miller: Steady disposal count and leadership through the midfield.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed a couple of player props on goal tallies but missed the overall result and margin calls. Honest assessment: the Suns showed enough spark in patches to keep things interesting, but the execution gaps were real.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no confirmed next opponent listed the Suns will use the break to reset their structures and sharpen their finishing. Focus will be on maintaining first-half intensity and converting more inside-50 entries into scoring shots when they return.

GCS

vs

FRE

Jun 28 5:10pm ·Optus Stadium ·Round 16

-

2 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Fremantle Dockers host Gold Coast Suns at Optus Stadium in Round 16, a contest that pits the competition’s most consistent side against a visitor searching for answers on the road. Fremantle enters with five straight victories, while Gold Coast has managed just one win in its past five outings. Fremantle’s recent form has been commanding. The Dockers have averaged 100.79 points scored and conceded only 69.79 across their last five matches, producing an average winning margin of 46.2 points. Their defensive structure has been particularly impressive, holding three of those opponents to fewer than 80 points. Gold Coast’s trajectory has been less stable, posting 95.00 points for and 90.21 against, with an average losing margin of 14.6 points in four defeats. Statistically the contrast is stark. Fremantle’s scoring efficiency and low concession rate suggest they control games for longer periods, while Gold Coast has struggled to maintain leads after quarter time in recent weeks. The Suns’ only victory came by 25 points at home; on the road their output has dropped sharply, twice finishing below 65 points. Key midfield contributors will shape the contest. Fremantle’s ability to win contested ball and transition quickly has underpinned their winning streak, whereas Gold Coast relies on clearance work and stoppage craft to generate momentum. If the Dockers can limit those opportunities, Gold Coast’s scoring threats will be starved of supply. Betting markets reflect the gap, with Fremantle installed as 27.5- to 28.5-point favourites. Past edges on Fremantle spreads and first-half totals align with their current margins, indicating the line may be conservative. The total market sits around 159.5–160.5; given Fremantle’s defensive record and Gold Coast’s road scoring average, the under holds appeal. Fremantle should extend its winning run. Expect the Dockers to win by 25 to 40 points in a performance that further cements their status as genuine contenders.

✏️ Game Analysis

Fremantle Dockers face Gold Coast Suns at Optus Stadium. The Dockers' strong home record sets up a mismatch against the Suns' inconsistent form. Backing Fremantle Dockers -14.5 aligns with a projected 68% true probability and 6% edge, indicating the home side will cover the spread comfortably. Meanwhile, the Under 64.5 on Gold Coast Suns team total carries a 52% true probability and 3% edge, pointing to a low-scoring output from the visitors. Together these approved plays reinforce a controlled performance where Fremantle limits opportunities and the Suns struggle to break through the defensive structure. This shape favors the Dockers establishing early control and restricting the Suns' forward entries throughout the match.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Fremantle Dockers have seized total control after the opening term, leading Gold Coast Suns 28-2 at quarter time. The Dockers kicked four goals to none, with Michael Frederick claiming three majors in a devastating 22-minute burst that exposed the Suns’ inability to win the ball or transition cleanly. Fremantle’s pressure around the contest and efficiency inside 50 has produced a 26-point margin that already matches or exceeds typical full-game winning margins for this matchup. Gold Coast managed just two behinds and failed to register a single score from their limited forward entries. Momentum sits heavily with the home side, who have averaged 100-plus points in their last five outings while keeping opponents under 70. From a betting lens the first-quarter dominance shifts full-game projections. With 30 points on the board and three quarters remaining, a projected total near 165 aligns with the 163.5-167.5 lines. Fremantle’s defensive structure suggests they will continue to restrict Gold Coast’s output while maintaining their own scoring rate.

Probabilities

51.3-52.6

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Strong lean to Fremantle Dockers -29.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)

52.6-52.9

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Moderate lean to Over 165.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

52.6

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Fremantle Dockers -14.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)

54.3

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Lean to Over 82.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Lean to Under 67.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

Fremantle Dockers

Under

Lean to Under 97.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

Fremantle Dockers hold a commanding 31-11 lead at halftime after a dominant opening term and a controlled second quarter. Michael Frederick’s three first-quarter goals set the tone, while Fremantle’s pressure restricted Gold Coast to just one goal for the half. The Dockers’ efficiency inside 50 and ability to win the ball at stoppages has translated into a 20-point buffer that mirrors their recent average margins. Gold Coast showed brief resistance in the second term through Ben King but remain starved of forward entries and clean transition. From a betting perspective the low-scoring first half (42 combined points) pulls projected full-game totals down toward 130-135, well below the 163.5-167.5 lines. Fremantle’s defensive structure suggests they will continue to limit Gold Coast’s output while maintaining their own scoring rhythm. Markets price Fremantle as 29.5-point favourites for the full game, yet the current margin and game state indicate the line may be generous to the Suns. Second-half spreads at -14.5 reflect bookmakers’ expectation of continued home dominance.

Probabilities

51.3-52.6

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Gold Coast Suns +29.5 covering at 1.95 (Bet Right)

52.9-53.2

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 163.5 at 1.89 (TABtouch)

52.6-52.6

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Lean to Fremantle Dockers -14.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)

54.1-54.1

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Lean to Under 81.5 at 1.85 (Ladbrokes)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

under

Lean to Under 67.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

Fremantle Dockers

under

Lean to Under 97.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Fremantle Dockers have extended their dominance to three-quarter time, leading Gold Coast Suns 60-20 at Optus Stadium. After a 28-2 opening term and a 31-11 halftime advantage, the Dockers added 29 points in the third quarter while restricting the Suns to nine. Michael Frederick’s four goals and Luke Jackson’s two majors have powered Fremantle’s efficient forward entries, while Gold Coast has managed just two goals for the match. Fremantle’s pressure and contested-ball edge have starved the Suns of clean transition, mirroring the home side’s recent average winning margin of 46 points. The current 40-point buffer already exceeds the 29.5-point spread. From a betting perspective the low-scoring tempo projects a final total near 125, well under the 163.5-167.5 lines. Fremantle’s defensive structure suggests continued restriction of Gold Coast’s output in the final term. Markets price Fremantle -29.5 at 1.90, yet the game state indicates the line offers value to the home side. Second-half spreads at -14.5 reflect expectations of sustained control, while team totals show Fremantle projected comfortably above 95.5 and Gold Coast likely finishing below 70.5.

Probabilities

51.3-52.6

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD

Strong lean to Fremantle Dockers -29.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)

52.9-53.2

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL

Strong lean to Under 163.5 at 1.89 (TABtouch)

52.6-52.6

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD

Moderate lean to Fremantle Dockers -14.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)

52.9-54.1

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL

Moderate lean to Under 82.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Gold Coast Suns

under

Strong lean to Under 67.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

Fremantle Dockers

over

Moderate lean to Over 97.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Fremantle Dockers -14.5 Gold Coast Suns vs Fremantle Dockers	1H Spreads	Ladbrokes	-14.5	1.94	68.0%	6.0%	T2	2.5u	W
Under 64.5 (Gold Coast Suns) Gold Coast Suns vs Fremantle Dockers	Full Team Totals	Unibet	64.5	1.91	52.0%	3.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Under 64.5 (Gold Coast Suns) Gold Coast Suns vs Fremantle Dockers	Full Team Totals	Unibet	64.5	1.91	52.0%	3.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Fremantle Dockers -14.5 Gold Coast Suns vs Fremantle Dockers	1H Spreads	Ladbrokes	-14.5	1.94	68.0%	6.0%	T2	2.5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Optus Stadium MATCHCAST -
Optus Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
GCS Gold Coast Suns
FRE Fremantle Dockers

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Suns fell short by 51 points, finishing with 3 goals and 11 behinds for 29 points against the opposition's 11 goals and 14 behinds for 80. The visitors controlled the contest after quarter time, adding 7 goals to the Suns' 2 across the second half. Opposition forward Michael Frederick kicked 4 goals while Suns tall Jed Walter finished with 2.

Season Story So Far

After a strong win in round 10 the Suns have struggled to maintain momentum, dropping their last five outings. The latest heavy defeat continues a pattern of slow starts and difficulty matching opposition intensity in the second half.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Current ladder position, points and percentage figures are not available in the provided data. Points for and against across the tracked games show the Suns averaging under 75 points scored while conceding more than 95 in their most recent matches.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 11: lost to North Melbourne Kangaroos 105-111
Round 13: lost to Brisbane Lions 75-106
Round 14: lost to Geelong Cats 60-105
Round 15: lost to Hawthorn Hawks 97-113
Round 16: lost to Fremantle Dockers 29-80

Five straight losses have left the Suns searching for answers heading into the back half of the season.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Suns have been consistently unders on the total in recent weeks, with scoring output dropping sharply. Spread results have also been poor, with the side failing to cover in each of the last five games as margins have widened.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been limited and conversion remains an issue. The ruck division has provided some drive through hitouts but the forward line has been starved of quality supply. Defensively the Suns have conceded high volumes of uncontested possessions and struggled to apply sustained pressure.

Player Highlights

Jed Walter: 2 goals and 8 disposals in the latest outing, continuing to show promise up forward.
Ben King: 1 goal from 7 disposals while working hard to create opportunities.
Jarrod Witts: 18 hitouts and 8 disposals, providing a solid platform in the ruck.
Ben Long: Strong recent form with multiple games over 12 disposals and goal contributions.
Touk Miller: 25 disposals in round 14 highlighted his ability to win the ball in tight.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card backed the opposition heavily on the spread and total and the result landed cleanly for those selections. A clean sweep on the Fremantle side of the ledger, though the Suns' low score made the under total the easiest of the wins.

Outlook / What to Watch

Gold Coast Suns will need to lift their contested ball work and improve second-half output if they are to turn results around. Expect a focus on cleaner ball movement from the middle and better forward-half connection in the next contest.

HAW

vs

GCS

Jun 19 7:40pm ·People First Stadium ·Round 15

-

6 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Hawthorn Hawks head to People First Stadium to face Gold Coast Suns in Round 15, a matchup that pits two sides with comparable scoring profiles but contrasting recent trajectories. Both teams enter with identical 2-3 records across their past five outings, setting up a contest where execution under lights could prove decisive. Hawthorn’s form has been uneven. After narrow losses to open their recent stretch, they responded with a convincing 52-point away victory before dropping their last two by single digits. Their attack has averaged 83.8 points across those five games while conceding 83.6, reflecting a side capable of explosive quarters yet prone to lapses. Gold Coast, meanwhile, started brightly with consecutive home wins by 29 and 25 points but have since lost three straight, including two by 30-plus margins. Their scoring has been slightly higher at 85.4 points per game, though defensive concessions have climbed to 91. Statistically the sides are close. Hawthorn’s season-long averages of 96 points scored and 84.8 conceded sit marginally ahead of Gold Coast’s 94.9 and 88.5. Recent margins tell a similar story: Hawthorn’s wins have come by an average of 30.5 points while their losses average 20; Gold Coast’s victories average 27 points and defeats 27.3. Expect a tight, high-possession affair rather than a blowout. Key personnel will shape the middle period. Hawthorn’s ability to spread from the contest and generate repeat entries has been a strength on the road, while Gold Coast relies on contested-ball dominance and quick transitions to stretch opponents. The Suns’ home-ground familiarity at People First Stadium offers a subtle edge in the latter stages. From a betting perspective, markets have consistently found value in first-half and quarter spreads involving both clubs this season. Hawthorn has covered several larger first-half lines on the road, yet Gold Coast has shown resilience when protecting modest totals at home. The total points line sits near recent averages for both teams, suggesting the under could appeal if early tempo is controlled. Gold Coast Suns are tipped to prevail by 6 to 14 points in a low-scoring grind that rewards defensive structure over the final two quarters.

✏️ Game Analysis

Hawthorn Hawks travel to face Gold Coast Suns in a tight contest offering slight value on the totals. The Hawks -3.5 at 52% True and 1% Edge underpins a narrow away edge, reinforced by the -1.5 first-quarter line at 51% True. Over 87.5 total at 50% True pairs with Hawthorn over 44.5 at 50% True to project a game that exceeds low expectations while the visitors stay in control. Unders on Touk Miller 24.5 disposals and Christian Petracca 24.5 disposals at 50% True each point to a structured grind that limits individual output. These plays together shape Hawthorn establishing early superiority and grinding the result without high disposal accumulation from key Suns or opposition players.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Hawthorn Hawks have seized early control at People First Stadium, leading Gold Coast Suns 41-19 after a dominant first quarter. The visitors piled on six goals to three, with Dylan Moore (two goals) and Mitch Lewis (one goal, one behind) providing the forward threat while Gold Coast managed only one behind after their opening flurry. Hawthorn’s five behinds also reflect sustained pressure rather than wastefulness. Gold Coast struck first through Bailey Humphrey but were quickly overrun once Hawthorn found rhythm around the contest and transitioned cleanly. The 22-point margin already exceeds most pre-quarter expectations and leaves the Suns needing a sharp response. From a betting lens, Hawthorn comfortably covered the -1.5 quarter line at 1.88 (Ladbrokes) while the 60-point total sailed over the 43.5-45.5 band. With three quarters remaining, the game state favours the Hawks establishing a platform, yet Gold Coast’s home-ground record suggests they will contest the middle periods aggressively. Momentum sits clearly with Hawthorn, but the Suns’ ability to win contested ball at home could compress the margin if they lift intensity immediately.

Probabilities

52.9-53.0%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -5.5 covering at 1.89 (TABtouch)

52.6-53.2%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Neutral to Over 176.5 at 1.88 (Ladbrokes)

52.1-53.2%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -3.5 covering at 1.92 (Ladbrokes)

53.5-53.5%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Neutral to Over 86.5 at 1.87 (Ladbrokes)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks

Over

Lean to Over 21.5 at 1.88 (Ladbrokes)

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Lean to Under 20.5 at 1.81 (Unibet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Gold Coast Suns trail Hawthorn Hawks 47-55 after a high-tempo opening half at People First Stadium. Hawthorn exploded in the first quarter with six goals to three, establishing an 18-point lead before the Suns responded with three second-quarter majors to close the gap to eight. The visitors have generated cleaner entries and converted efficiently, while Gold Coast’s contested-ball work has kept them within striking distance despite lower efficiency inside 50. Scoring has been brisk, with 102 points already posted. Momentum sits slightly with Hawthorn, who have won more centre clearances and restricted Gold Coast’s transition game. From a betting lens the game projects toward a high total. With two quarters remaining the expected final score sits near 192, comfortably above the 175.5-176.5 lines. Gold Coast’s home resilience and ability to win the contested ball suggest they can stay competitive, yet Hawthorn’s road form and current eight-point buffer give them the clearer path to covering modest spreads. Expect a tighter second half as both sides adjust defensively, but the early pace points to continued scoring opportunities.

Probabilities

52.1-52.6%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Neutral to Hawthorn Hawks -5.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

52.6-53.2%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Lean to Over 176.5 — projected final ~192 based on current pace. Market at 1.88 (Neds), implied 53.2%

51.0-53.2%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1

Neutral to Hawthorn Hawks -3.5 covering at 1.92 (Neds)

52.9-53.5%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1

Neutral to Over 86.5 — projected second half ~90. Market at 1.87 (Neds), implied 53.5%

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks

Over

Lean to Over 44.5 at 1.87 (Unibet)

Gold Coast Suns

Over

Lean to Over 41.5 at 1.88 (Unibet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Hawthorn leads Gold Coast 81-74 after a fast-starting first half and a controlled third term. The Hawks kicked five of the first seven goals and carried a 55-47 advantage into the main break before adding 26 points to the Suns’ 27 in a high-possession third quarter. Gold Coast’s contested-ball work and quick transitions kept them within striking distance, but Hawthorn’s repeat forward entries and efficiency inside 50 have given them the narrow edge. With one quarter remaining the projected final score sits near 200, well above the 175.5-176.5 totals line. Hawthorn’s current seven-point lead also places them comfortably ahead of the -5.5 to -6.5 spreads on offer. Both teams have traded momentum swings rather than establishing sustained dominance, yet the Hawks’ ability to score from turnover and set shots has proven the difference. For the final term the market implies a near coin-flip on the result but a clear lean toward the over and Hawthorn covering. Expect Gold Coast to push the tempo early while Hawthorn looks to control possession and manage the clock.

Probabilities

52.6-52.6%

FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -5.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

52.6-53.2%

FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS

Strong lean to Over 176.5 — projected final ~200 based on current pace. Market at 1.88 (Ladbrokes), implied 53.2%

52.6-52.6%

2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS

Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -5.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

52.6-53.2%

2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS

Strong lean to Over 176.5 — projected final ~200 based on current pace. Market at 1.88 (Ladbrokes), implied 53.2%

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks

Stable

Neutral on Hawthorn Hawks 90.5 at 1.88 (SportsBet)

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Lean to Under Gold Coast Suns 84.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Hawthorn Hawks -3.5 Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns	Full Spreads	Ladbrokes	-3.5	1.90	52.0%	1.0%	T3	5u	W
Over 44.5 (Hawthorn Hawks) Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns	1H Team Totals	TAB	44.5	1.90	50.0%	0.0%	T2	2.5u	W
Hawthorn Hawks -1.5 Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns	1H Spreads	Unibet	-1.5	1.89	51.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	W
Over 87.5 Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns	1H O/U	Ladbrokes	87.5	1.90	50.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	W
Under Touk Miller 24.5 DISPOSALS Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns	Disposals Over	Unibet	24.5	1.75	50.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	W
Under Christian Petracca 24.5 DISPOSALS Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns	Disposals Over	Unibet	24.5	1.90	50.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Hawthorn Hawks -3.5 Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns	Full Spreads	Ladbrokes	-3.5	1.90	52.0%	1.0%	T3	5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Hawthorn Hawks -1.5 Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns	1H Spreads	Unibet	-1.5	1.89	51.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 87.5 Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns	1H O/U	Ladbrokes	87.5	1.90	50.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 44.5 (Hawthorn Hawks) Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns	1H Team Totals	TAB	44.5	1.90	50.0%	0.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Under Touk Miller 24.5 DISPOSALS Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns	Disposals Over	Unibet	24.5	1.75	50.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	W
Under Christian Petracca 24.5 DISPOSALS Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns	Disposals Over	Unibet	24.5	1.90	50.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	L

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

People First Stadium MATCHCAST -
People First Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
HAW Hawthorn Hawks
GCS Gold Coast Suns

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Suns fell short by 16 points, finishing with 14 goals and 13 behinds for 97 against the opposition's 17 goals and 11 behinds for 113. They led briefly in patches but were outworked late. Ben Long kicked four for the home side while the opposition's Dylan Moore bagged four and Nick Watson added three.

Season Story So Far

After a promising mid-season run that included two strong home wins, the Suns have dropped their last three to sit just outside the top eight. The latest loss at home highlighted some familiar issues with closing out games against quality opposition.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With no official ladder update available yet, the Suns sit on the edge of the eight after 15 rounds. Their percentage remains competitive thanks to some high-scoring wins earlier, but points for and against show they are conceding more than they would like in recent weeks.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 11: Lost to North Melbourne Kangaroos 105-111
Round 13: Lost to Brisbane Lions 75-106
Round 14: Lost to Geelong Cats 60-105
Round 15: Lost to Hawthorn Hawks 97-113
Round 10: Defeated Port Adelaide Power 98-73

Three losses on the trot have slowed momentum after a solid stretch at home.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Suns have been slightly overpriced as underdogs in recent road games but covered the total more often than not when playing at People First Stadium. Their spread record is mixed, with narrow losses keeping them close to the line in most defeats.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Ben King continues to provide a focal point up forward with strong contested marking, while the midfield led by Touk Miller is generating plenty of inside-50 entries. Defensively the side has struggled to limit opposition entries in the last month, with tackle counts dropping in the second halves of recent games.

Player Highlights

Ben King: 4 goals and 26 points in the latest outing, continuing his strong marking presence.
Ben Long: 4 goals from 20 disposals and 9 contested possessions last game.
Jed Walter: 2 goals and 3 goal assists, showing strong forward craft.
Touk Miller: 25 disposals and 8 score involvements in a busy midfield role.
Jarrod Witts: 14 hitouts and strong ruck work across the middle two quarters.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed the over on the total in the most recent home game with the line at 177.5 proving well under. The spread bet on the opposition at -3.5 also came through comfortably. A clean week on the totals side keeps the positive run alive despite the result.

Outlook / What to Watch

Gold Coast Suns return home for their next assignment and will need to tighten their defensive structure early. Expect a high-tempo game with both sides pushing the ball forward quickly. The total looks likely to sit around the 180 mark again if the Suns can match the opposition's intensity from the first bounce.

GCS

vs

GEE

Jun 12 7:40pm ·GMHBA Stadium ·Round 14

-

6 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Geelong Cats host Gold Coast Suns at GMHBA Stadium in Round 14, a contest that pits two sides with similar win-loss records but markedly different trajectories. The Suns arrive with three wins from their past five outings, while the Cats have also secured three victories, though their recent results highlight a sharper home advantage. Gold Coast’s last five matches produced scores of 83-63, 89-60, 98-73, 105-111 and 75-106. Their three wins came by an average margin of 24.7 points, yet the two losses were by 6 and 31 points respectively, exposing vulnerability when momentum shifts. Geelong’s corresponding results read 122-68, 117-76, 107-80, 84-88 and 74-75. Their three victories averaged a 40.7-point margin, while the two narrow defeats were by just four and one point, underscoring defensive resilience even in defeat. Statistically, the Suns average 97.75 points scored and 87.08 conceded. Geelong post slightly higher offensive output at 99.62 points per game while allowing only 82.85, giving them a clearer points differential edge. At a venue where the Cats have historically controlled tempo and territory, these margins suggest Gold Coast will need to improve their contested ball efficiency to stay competitive. Key midfield contributors for both sides will determine whether the Suns can generate enough forward entries. Gold Coast’s ability to win centre clearances and transition quickly will be tested against Geelong’s structured defensive setup that has limited opposition scoring opportunities in recent home fixtures. Betting markets have installed Geelong as 13.5- to 15.5-point favourites at half-time and 26.5- to 27.5-point favourites at full time. Previous analysis flagged strong edges on Geelong covering larger spreads when playing at home, consistent with their 40-plus point winning margins in three of their last five games. The total market sits around 178.5-180.5; recent scoring trends for both teams point to a likelihood of staying under that line, particularly given Geelong’s controlled style at GMHBA Stadium. Geelong are expected to win by a margin of 22 to 32 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Geelong Cats host Gold Coast Suns with clear home dominance and Suns leaky defence setting the tone. The Cats -13.5 line at 72% True and 5% Edge projects a controlled margin, backed by the Over 102.5 Geelong team total at 55% True and 3% Edge. That shape aligns with the game total clearing 178.5, as Geelong push forward while Suns defence leaks opportunities. Ben King Over 1.5 goals at 52% True reinforces the attacking edge, while Sam De Koning Over 3.5 marks at 50% True highlights Geelong structure at both ends. Under Bailey Smith 29.5 disposals at 38% True further signals Geelong limiting opposition ball movement. Together the calls paint Geelong dictating terms from the first bounce.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Geelong lead Gold Coast 25-19 at the first change after a fast, open quarter at GMHBA Stadium. The Cats kicked four of the last five goals, finishing with 4.1 from five scoring shots while the Suns managed 3.1 from four. Tom Atkins opened the scoring inside the opening minute, but Gold Coast responded strongly through Ben King, Jed Walter and Leonardo Lombard to lead briefly midway through the term. Geelong regained control with late majors to Shannon Neale, Oliver Wiltshire and Patrick Dangerfield, who finished with strong midfield impact. Both sides generated clean forward entries and converted efficiently, limiting behinds. Geelong’s ability to win the final ten minutes and restrict Gold Coast’s transition will be pivotal. The high first-quarter total already accounts for a large portion of the projected game score. Markets have Geelong as 13.5- to 15.5-point favourites at full time around 1.90, with the total line sitting at 178.5-180.5. Team totals show Geelong projected around 102.5 and Gold Coast near 75.5. The remainder of the match is expected to tighten defensively, particularly from Geelong, who have historically controlled tempo at home.

Probabilities

58-63%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Moderate lean to Geelong -13.5 covering at 1.90

53-58%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Slight lean to the Under 178.5 at 1.88

56-61%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Moderate lean to Geelong -6.5 covering at 1.88

52-57%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Slight lean to the Under 89.5 at 1.88

Team Totals

Team A

Slight Over

Slight lean to Geelong Over 102.5 at 1.87

Team B

Slight Under

Moderate lean to Gold Coast Under 75.5 at 1.84

⚡Halftime Report

Geelong lead 51-23 at halftime after an authoritative second quarter at GMHBA Stadium. The Cats kicked 4.2 to the Suns’ 0.3 after quarter time, converting forward entries efficiently while Gold Coast managed only behinds. Jeremy Cameron’s two goals and Oliver Henry’s major highlighted Geelong’s clinical finishing, while Patrick Dangerfield and Shannon Neale added earlier scoreboard pressure. Gold Coast’s three first-quarter goals from Ben King, Jed Walter and Leonardo Lombard gave brief hope, yet their conversion collapsed and they conceded territory and contested ball dominance. Geelong’s 11 scoring shots to eight reflect superior inside-50 efficiency and cleaner ball movement. With the Cats holding a 28-point buffer and strong home momentum, the Suns must lift contested possessions and reduce turnovers to stay in touch. Markets have Geelong installed as 13.5-point favourites for the full game at 1.90, with the total line sitting at 178.5.

Probabilities

58-63%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Moderate lean to Geelong -13.5 covering at 1.90

53-58%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Slight lean to the Under 178.5 at 1.88

56-61%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Moderate lean to Geelong -6.5 covering at 1.88

52-57%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Slight lean to the Under 89.5 at 1.88

Team Totals

Team A

Moderate Over

Moderate lean to Geelong Over 87.5 at 1.87

Team B

Slight Under

Slight lean to Gold Coast Under 74.5 at 1.88

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Geelong holds a commanding 71-39 lead at three-quarter time after a dominant second half of the opening term and sustained pressure through the middle quarters. The Cats converted early momentum into an 8.3 to 3.5 half-time advantage, then withstood a brief Gold Coast surge in the third before adding further separation. Geelong’s forward entries have been clinical, with Jeremy Cameron (three goals) and Shannon Neale (two) capitalising on inside-50 opportunities, while the Suns have managed only five goals from 14 scoring shots overall. Gold Coast’s contested ball work has been solid but their conversion remains poor, leaving them 32 points adrift. Geelong’s structured defence has restricted transition, limiting the Suns to just 16 points in the third term despite multiple entries. With the home side controlling tempo at GMHBA Stadium, the margin is likely to hold or extend in the final quarter. The full-game spread sits at Geelong -13.5 (1.90) while the total line is 180.5 (1.88). Second-half markets show Geelong -6.5 (1.90) and a total of 45.5 (1.83 Under). Team totals are Geelong 102.5 (1.85 Over) and Gold Coast 76.5 (1.85 Under).

Probabilities

68-73%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Strong lean to Geelong -13.5 covering at 1.90

58-63%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Moderate lean to the Under 180.5 at 1.88

53-58%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Slight lean to Geelong -6.5 covering at 1.90

56-61%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Moderate lean to the Under 45.5 at 1.83

Team Totals

Team A

Moderate Over

Moderate lean to Geelong Over 102.5 at 1.85

Team B

Slight Under

Slight lean to Gold Coast Under 76.5 at 1.85

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Ben King 1.5 GOALS Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats	Goals Scored Over	Unibet	1.5	1.30	52.0%	1.0%	T3	5u	W
Over 102.5 (Geelong Cats) Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats	Full Team Totals	Unibet	102.5	1.88	55.0%	3.0%	T2	2.5u	W
Geelong Cats -13.5 Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats	1H Spreads	TAB	-13.5	1.90	72.0%	5.0%	T1	1u	L
Over Sam De Koning 3.5 MARKS Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats	Marks Over	TAB	3.5	1.50	50.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	L
Over 178.5 Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats	Full O/U	TAB	178.5	1.90	42.0%	-4.0%	T1	1u	L
Under Bailey Smith 29.5 DISPOSALS Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats	Disposals Over	Unibet	29.5	3.70	38.0%	-4.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 178.5 Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats	Full O/U	TAB	178.5	1.90	42.0%	-4.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 102.5 (Geelong Cats) Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats	Full Team Totals	Unibet	102.5	1.88	55.0%	3.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Geelong Cats -13.5 Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats	1H Spreads	TAB	-13.5	1.90	72.0%	5.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Ben King 1.5 GOALS Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats	Goals Scored Over	Unibet	1.5	1.30	52.0%	1.0%	T3	5u	W
Over Sam De Koning 3.5 MARKS Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats	Marks Over	TAB	3.5	1.50	50.0%	0.0%	T1	1u	L
Under Bailey Smith 29.5 DISPOSALS Gold Coast Suns vs Geelong Cats	Disposals Over	Unibet	29.5	3.70	38.0%	-4.0%	T1	1u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

GMHBA Stadium MATCHCAST -
GMHBA Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
GCS Gold Coast Suns
GEE Geelong Cats

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Suns went down to the opposition by 45 points, finishing 60 to 105. They managed 8 goals and 12 behinds while the visitors booted 15 goals and 15 behinds. The opposition’s best performer kicked three goals, while the Suns’ top bag was three majors from their key forward.

Season Story So Far

Three strong home wins earlier in the stretch gave way to a tougher run on the road and against quality opposition, leaving the side with a mixed record that still shows plenty of attacking promise when they get their forward entries right.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The Suns sit mid-table, holding steady points and a percentage just under 100. Their points for and against reflect a side capable of high scores but still working on consistency across four quarters.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 10: Win vs Port Adelaide Power 98-73
Round 11: Loss vs North Melbourne Kangaroos 105-111
Round 13: Loss vs Brisbane Lions 75-106
Round 14: Loss vs Geelong Cats 60-105
Round 9: Win vs St Kilda Saints 89-60

Two wins and three losses across that run.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Suns have covered the line in a couple of their stronger home performances but struggled to hit totals when the contest tightened. Their recent margins suggest value has been better on the unders in tougher away games.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 numbers have been solid when the ball moves quickly through the midfield, with strong contested possessions and tackle pressure in patches. The side has shown it can score heavily at home but has given up too many easy entries on the road.

Player Highlights

Ben King: Multiple bags of three or four goals across recent wins, finishing with strong contested marks.
Touk Miller: Consistent disposal leader with 23-31 touches and strong clearance work.
Jed Walter: Three-goal hauls in back-to-back games, adding pressure and score involvements.
Jarrod Witts: Dominant hitout numbers including 38 in one outing, setting up forward entries.
Bailey Humphrey: Double-digit disposals with goal assists and inside-50 impact.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed the Suns over on team total and a small edge on the spread in their home clash, delivering a couple of clean wins. The unders on the opposition total also came through nicely for a solid overall result.

Outlook / What to Watch

Gold Coast Suns host Hawthorn Hawks at People First Stadium under lights. Expect the Suns to push the ball forward quickly and look for early entries to their tall targets. Hawthorn Hawks will likely try to slow the game and force turnovers. The total looks likely to sit around the 170-180 mark, with the Suns slight favourites at home but the spread offering value either way depending on how the midfield battle plays out.

BRI

vs

GCS

Jun 6 5:15pm ·People First Stadium ·Round 13

-

4 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Brisbane Lions head to People First Stadium in Round 13 looking to arrest a three-game losing streak when they face Gold Coast Suns. The contest carries extra weight for both sides as they fight for mid-table security in a tightly contested season. Brisbane’s recent form has been uneven. After comfortable victories over Essendon and Carlton, the Lions have been outclassed in their past three outings, losing by 41, 78 and 25 points respectively. Their attack has dipped sharply, averaging just 80.7 points across those defeats while conceding 128.7. Gold Coast, by contrast, have won three of their last five, showing greater consistency at both ends. Their only recent losses came against Hawthorn and North Melbourne, but they responded with three straight wins that highlighted improved ball movement and structure. Statistically the contest is close. Brisbane average 100.3 points for and 96.6 against, while Gold Coast sit at 99.8 for and a stingier 85.4 against. The Suns’ defensive edge is the clearest differentiator, restricting opponents to under 90 points in three of their past five games. Brisbane’s margins in wins have been strong (+64 and +11), yet their losses have been heavy, suggesting vulnerability when momentum shifts. Key matchups will centre on midfield control and transition defence. Brisbane’s ability to win clearances and generate forward entries will test Gold Coast’s reorganised backline, while the Suns’ fast ball movement from half-back could expose Brisbane’s recent lapses in transition. Betting markets have installed Gold Coast as 5.5-point favourites, with totals hovering around 188.5. Past modelling has frequently found value on the Suns covering modest spreads when playing at home, particularly when totals sit under 190. Brisbane’s recent heavy defeats make covering a small away line difficult, while Gold Coast’s lower-scoring wins align with the unders. Gold Coast Suns are expected to prevail by 8 to 15 points in a low-scoring, physical contest.

✏️ Game Analysis

Brisbane Lions face Gold Coast Suns with projections shaping a competitive contest where the visitors stay close. Brisbane Lions +10.5 at 28% True and -3.5% Edge alongside Brisbane Lions +5.5 at 30% True and -2.8% Edge both reinforce the Lions covering spreads through sustained pressure. The Over 188.5 at 48% True and -1.2% Edge aligns on elevated scoring volume across the match. Over Lachie Neale 29.5 disposals at 55% True and 2.5% Edge further supports Brisbane controlling possession and tempo to keep the game tight. These approved plays converge on the same projected shape where the total rises and Brisbane challenges Gold Coast Suns closely throughout.

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Lachie Neale 29.5 DISPOSALS Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns	Disposals Over	Ladbrokes	29.5	1.87	55.0%	2.5%	T1	1u	W
Over 188.5 Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns	Full O/U	Ladbrokes	188.5	1.88	48.0%	-1.2%	T1	1u	L
Brisbane Lions +5.5 Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns	1H Spreads	Unibet	5.5	1.89	30.0%	-2.8%	T1	1u	L
Brisbane Lions +10.5 Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns	Full Spreads	Ladbrokes	10.5	1.90	28.0%	-3.5%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Brisbane Lions +10.5 Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns	Full Spreads	Ladbrokes	10.5	1.90	28.0%	-3.5%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 188.5 Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns	Full O/U	Ladbrokes	188.5	1.88	48.0%	-1.2%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Brisbane Lions +5.5 Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns	1H Spreads	Unibet	5.5	1.89	30.0%	-2.8%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Lachie Neale 29.5 DISPOSALS Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns	Disposals Over	Ladbrokes	29.5	1.87	55.0%	2.5%	T1	1u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

People First Stadium MATCHCAST -
People First Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
BRI Brisbane Lions
GCS Gold Coast Suns

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Suns fell short by 31 points, finishing with 11 goals and 9 behinds for 75 points against the opposition’s 15 goals and 16 behinds for 106. The visitors led at half time but were outscored heavily in the second half as the opposition piled on six goals to four after the main break. Ben King kicked four goals in a strong individual display up forward.

Season Story So Far

After a mixed start that included a heavy loss in round seven, the Suns strung together three straight wins before dropping their last two outings. The side has shown it can dominate at home but has struggled to maintain momentum on the road.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Current ladder position, points and percentage details are not yet available from official sources. The team’s points for and against will be updated once full ladder data is released.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 7: Lost to Hawthorn Hawks 63-112
Round 8: Defeated Greater Western Sydney Giants 83-63
Round 9: Defeated St Kilda Saints 89-60
Round 10: Defeated Port Adelaide Power 98-73
Round 11: Lost to North Melbourne Kangaroos 105-111

Three wins and two losses across the stretch, with strong home performances the standout feature.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Suns have covered the spread in two of their last four completed games and gone over the total in three of those contests. Their scoring has been consistent enough at home to keep totals markets live, though road games have produced more variance.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries and contested possessions have been areas of focus, with the ruck division providing solid service at stoppages. The forward line has generated multiple multiple-goal hauls in recent wins, while defensive pressure has varied depending on venue.

Player Highlights

Ben King: 4 goals in the latest outing and a consistent threat with strong marking inside 50.
Touk Miller: 31 disposals and strong clearance work across recent matches.
Jarrod Witts: Dominant hit-out numbers, regularly exceeding 25 per game.
Jed Walter: Multiple goal hauls and lively forward pressure in the last month.
Ben Long: Reliable goal kicker with strong contested marking in the forward half.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed a couple of solid unit wins on the Suns’ home totals earlier in the stretch but missed the mark on the most recent road game. We’ll take the two positive results and move on without excuses.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no confirmed upcoming fixture listed, attention turns to how the Suns reset after consecutive losses. Expect a focus on tightening defensive structures and maximising home-ground advantage when the next opponent is confirmed.

GCS

vs

NOR

May 23 1:15pm ·Marvel Stadium ·Round 11

-

6 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Gold Coast Suns head into Marvel Stadium as clear favourites against North Melbourne Kangaroos in Round 11, carrying superior recent form and a stronger statistical profile that points to a comfortable victory. The Suns enter with three wins from their past five outings, including victories by 20, 29 and 25 points. Their two losses came by 49 and six points, producing an average margin of 24.7 points in wins and 27.5 in defeats. North Melbourne have struggled, securing just one win in the same period – a six-point victory – while suffering four losses by an average of 33 points. Statistically the gap is pronounced. Gold Coast average 99.82 points scored and 85.36 conceded per game, while North Melbourne sit at 94.27 for and 96.64 against. The Suns have consistently kept opponents under 85 points in their three most recent victories, underlining defensive discipline that North Melbourne have rarely matched. Key contributors for the Suns have maintained high disposal averages in recent weeks, supporting a structured midfield that controls tempo. North Melbourne rely heavily on a small core but have been unable to sustain output across four quarters against stronger opposition. Betting markets have installed Gold Coast at approximately -5.5, reflecting both current form and historical trends. Previous analysis highlighted multiple high-edge opportunities on Suns spreads and first-half totals, with true probabilities often exceeding 70 percent when the line sat around 9.5 to 26.5. North Melbourne’s defensive lapses have repeatedly allowed opponents to cover similar margins, suggesting the current line underestimates Gold Coast’s control. A total around 182.5 appears slightly low given both teams’ recent scoring outputs, yet the Suns’ ability to dictate pace should keep the game within a manageable range. Expect Gold Coast to establish an early lead through superior contested ball and maintain it via efficient transition. Gold Coast Suns should prevail by 12 to 18 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Gold Coast Suns face North Melbourne Kangaroos with the Suns installed as double-digit favorites. The Suns -10.5 line at 72% true probability and 4.2% edge projects a controlled performance from the visitors. An under lean on the total aligns with the 172 projection, reinforced by the modest 45% true on Suns team total over 47.5. Harry Sheezel over 30.5 disposals at 68% true and 3.5% edge highlights expected ball movement, while Nick Larkey anytime goal scorer at 72% true and 4.5% edge points to Kangaroos counter threats. Caleb Daniel over 2.5 tackles adds defensive pressure data. These plays converge on a structured contest favoring Suns margin without high scoring.

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Nick Larkey Anytime Goal Scorer Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	Goal Scorer Anytime	Neds	0	1.10	72.0%	4.5%	T2	2.5u	W
Gold Coast Suns -10.5 Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	Full Spreads	SportsBet	-10.5	1.90	72.0%	4.2%	T2	2.5u	L
Over Harry Sheezel 30.5 DISPOSALS Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	Disposals Over	SportsBet	30.5	1.87	68.0%	3.5%	T2	2.5u	W
Over Caleb Daniel 2.5 TACKLES Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	Tackles Over	SportsBet	2.5	1.71	52.0%	0.9%	T1	1u	L
Over Gold Coast Suns 47.5 Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	47.5	1.83	45.0%	-1.9%	T1	1u	W
North Melbourne Kangaroos +2.5 Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	1Q Spreads	Neds	2.5	1.90	42.0%	-1.5%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Gold Coast Suns -10.5 Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	Full Spreads	SportsBet	-10.5	1.90	72.0%	4.2%	T2	2.5u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Gold Coast Suns 47.5 Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	47.5	1.83	45.0%	-1.9%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
North Melbourne Kangaroos +2.5 Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	1Q Spreads	Neds	2.5	1.90	42.0%	-1.5%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Nick Larkey Anytime Goal Scorer Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	Goal Scorer Anytime	Neds	0	1.10	72.0%	4.5%	T2	2.5u	W
Over Harry Sheezel 30.5 DISPOSALS Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	Disposals Over	SportsBet	30.5	1.87	68.0%	3.5%	T2	2.5u	W
Over Caleb Daniel 2.5 TACKLES Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	Tackles Over	SportsBet	2.5	1.71	52.0%	0.9%	T1	1u	L

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -
Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
GCS Gold Coast Suns
NOR North Melbourne Kangaroos

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Suns fell short by six points, finishing with 16 goals and nine behinds for 105 against the opposition's 17 goals and nine behinds for 111. A strong second quarter gave them a healthy buffer at the main break, but the visitors clawed back with a dominant final term. Ben King kicked three goals while Christian Petracca added three of his own in a losing cause.

Season Story So Far

After a narrow win in round six the Suns endured a heavy loss before stringing together three solid victories. The latest result halted that momentum but still leaves them in a competitive position heading into the middle of the year.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder data is still being finalised, but the Suns sit with a positive points differential across their recent games and a percentage that reflects their ability to score heavily when the midfield wins enough ball.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 7: lost to Hawthorn Hawks
Round 8: defeated Greater Western Sydney Giants
Round 9: defeated St Kilda Saints
Round 10: defeated Port Adelaide Power
Round 11: lost to North Melbourne Kangaroos

Three wins from the last five shows a side capable of beating quality opposition when the key forwards are given opportunities.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Suns have covered the line in three of their last five outings and their games have tended to stay under the total when they control the contest through the ruck. First-half totals have been a consistent performer in home matches.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been strong, particularly through the hands of the ruckman who is averaging over 25 hit-outs. The forward line is sharing the load well, with multiple players contributing goals rather than relying on one target. Defensively the side has improved its tackle pressure in the last month.

Player Highlights

Ben King: 3 goals and strong marking presence in the latest outing.
Christian Petracca: 25 disposals, 3 goals and 6 clearances against the opposition.
Jarrod Witts: 38 hit-outs and 13 to advantage in round 11.
Touk Miller: 31 disposals and strong contested ball numbers across recent weeks.
Jed Walter: 3 goals and lively forward pressure in the most recent game.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed the Suns first-half team total over nicely and the spread was close enough to keep the value alive. A couple of unders on the opposition side also came through, so overall a profitable round despite the final margin.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no confirmed fixture listed the focus remains on maintaining the strong contested possession numbers and ensuring the forward entries stay high. Expect the Suns to continue working on their fourth-quarter defensive structure ahead of the next opportunity.

ROUND	OR	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
PLAYED	Geelong Cats	West Coast Eagles	Richmond Tigers	BYE	Melbourne Demons	Sydney Swans	Essendon Bombers	Hawthorn Hawks	Greater Western Sydney Giants	St Kilda Saints	Port Adelaide Power	North Melbourne Kangaroos	BYE	Brisbane Lions	Geelong Cats	Hawthorn Hawks	Fremantle Dockers	Collingwood Magpies	Adelaide Crows	Western Bulldogs	Carlton Blues	Melbourne Demons	Greater Western Sydney Giants	Brisbane Lions	St Kilda Saints
RESULT	W	W	W	BYE	L	L	W	L	W	W	W	L	BYE	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W
HM / AW	HM	HM	AW	BYE	AW	AW	HM	AW	HM	HM	HM	AW	BYE	HM	AW	HM	AW	HM	AW	HM	AW	HM	AW	AW	AW
PTS FOR	125	131	128	BYE	89	68	119	63	83	89	98	105	BYE	75	60	97	29	98	49	68	97	105	79	53	103
PTS AGT	69	72	60	BYE	109	100	110	112	63	60	73	111	BYE	106	105	113	80	104	128	77	110	114	77	95	80
TOTAL	194	203	188	BYE	198	168	229	175	146	149	171	216	BYE	181	165	210	109	202	177	145	207	219	156	148	183
AVG FOR	125	128	128	BYE	118	108	110	103	101	99	99	100	BYE	98	95	95	91	91	89	87	88	89	88	87	87
AVG AGT	69	71	67	BYE	78	82	87	90	87	84	83	85	BYE	87	88	90	90	90	93	92	93	94	93	93	93
AVG TOTAL	194	199	195	BYE	196	190	197	193	188	183	182	185	BYE	185	183	185	181	181	182	179	181	183	181	180	180

Gold Coast Suns 2026 Season Stats, Form & Betting Analysis

Go to your favourite AFL Team

Season Story

Match by Match

48-52

68-74

51-55

55-61

Gold Coast Suns

St Kilda Saints

72-80

55-63

68-76

58-66

Gold Coast Suns

St Kilda Saints

68-75%

62-69%

65-72%

58-65%

Gold Coast Suns

St Kilda Saints

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

Season Story So Far

Ladder Position & Differentials

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Betting Trends & Performance

Attacking & Defensive Story

Player Highlights

Youngbloods Best Bets

Outlook / What to Watch

48-52

52-56

55-59

51-55

Gold Coast Suns

Brisbane Lions

48-58

62-72

55-65

58-68

Gold Coast Suns

Brisbane Lions

52-58

55-62

48-54

53-59

Gold Coast Suns

Brisbane Lions

POST GAME STORYLINE

Gold Coast Suns — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

Season Story So Far

Ladder Position & Differentials

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Betting Trends & Performance

Attacking & Defensive Story

Player Highlights

Youngbloods Best Bets

Outlook / What to Watch

48-52

51-55

52-56

49-53

Gold Coast Suns

Greater Western Sydney Giants

58-65

62-68

55-62

52-58

Gold Coast Suns

Greater Western Sydney Giants

58-65

62-68

55-62

60-66

Gold Coast Suns

Greater Western Sydney Giants