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Hawthorn Hawks 2026 Season Stats, Form & Betting Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks
  BETTING STATS
TABLE 4th - 64 PTS
RESULT (W-L-D) - 23 15 - 6 - 2
POINTS 2260 FOR 1881 AGT
SCORING SHOTS -
POWER RANK -
FORM > LATEST
W
W
L
D
W

Season Story

Hawthorn’s recent form shows a mixed ATS picture with a 2-3 record across the last five games and an even 5-5 split over the last ten. The sequence LLWWWLLLWW indicates some late recovery after a three-game losing run, yet the side has failed to string together consistent covers. On totals the last ten leans slightly to the over at 6-4, while the last five sits at 2-3, reflecting ongoing inconsistency rather than a clear hot or cold streak. For the season Hawthorn sits at 10-14 ATS and exactly 12-12 on totals. They have started as favourites 21 times but covered only nine of those, while going 1-2 ATS in their three underdog roles. This profile marks them as a team that struggles to deliver when priced as short favourites but can occasionally deliver against the number when the market overvalues them. Quarter and half-time splits reveal variable momentum. Several wins featured strong first-half scoring followed by controlled second halves, yet losses often showed slow starts or fades after half-time. Home games have produced more unders than overs, while road performances have been more volatile on the total. Scoring tends to come in bursts rather than steady accumulation. Standout results include the 64-point demolition of Carlton in round 18 that covered by 50.5 points and the 70-point win over Richmond that cleared a 50.5-point line. Other blowout victories against Essendon and West Coast also produced comfortable covers, highlighting Hawthorn’s capacity to exceed large spreads when they click. The clearest betting angle right now lies in avoiding Hawthorn when they are short favourites, where their cover rate is poor. Value appears more readily when they are underdogs or in totals spots that align with their recent slight lean toward overs. Caution is warranted until they demonstrate greater consistency. Looking ahead, Hawthorn’s recent ATS inconsistency and mixed totals form suggest approaching the next fixture with care, especially if installed as a short favourite. Their ability to produce large margins in favourable match-ups remains the primary source of occasional betting opportunities.
SELECT A SEASON
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PTS FOR
95 145 99 BYE 92 104 89 112 93 73 81 75 119 71 BYE 113 96 90 103 122 132 99 58 92 107 BYE 72 BYE 0
PTS AGT
122 83 82 BYE 91 64 86 63 93 88 120 66 67 77 BYE 97 82 125 39 52 39 83 125 92 45 BYE 40 BYE 0
TOTAL
217 228 181 BYE 183 168 175 175 186 161 201 141 186 148 BYE 210 178 215 142 174 171 182 183 184 152 BYE 112 BYE 0
AVG FOR
95 120 113 BYE 108 107 104 105 0 100 98 96 98 96 BYE 97 97 97 97 98 100 100 98 0 98 BYE 97 BYE 0
AVG AGT
122 103 96 BYE 95 88 88 84 0 86 89 87 85 85 BYE 86 85 88 85 83 81 81 83 0 82 BYE 80 BYE 0
AVG TOTAL
217 223 209 BYE 203 195 192 189 0 186 187 183 183 181 BYE 183 182 185 182 181 181 181 181 0 180 BYE 177 BYE 0
RUGBY GO PRO
FOR ROUND AGT
107.75 OR - 4 85.33
94.2 5 - 9 78.8
86.5 10 - 14 82.5
104.8 15 - 19 79
97.6 20 - 24 76.8
72 25 - 28 40
98.26 SEA 81.78
79 L5 70
TOTALS
ROUND TOTAL
OR - 4 202
5 - 9 216
10 - 14 169
15 - 19 184
20 - 24 218
25 - 28 112
SEA 180.04
L5 149
SCORING
COMING SOON
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Match by Match

HAW Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers FRE
Sep 3 8:10pm ·Optus Stadium ·Round Qualifying Final
-
1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

✏️ Game Analysis

Hawthorn Hawks travel to face Fremantle Dockers with the home side holding clear edge. Fremantle's recent scoring consistency aligns with projections for the contest, supporting the approved Fremantle Dockers T2 2.5u play at True 62% and Edge 4%. The line and team total reinforce a game shape where Fremantle controls the tempo and accumulates efficiently at home. No contradictions appear in venue data or form trends, keeping the projection intact. Bettors backing the Dockers at 1.48 on SportsBet see the same alignment between spread, total and team total calls. This setup projects Fremantle dictating terms from the opening bounce.

⚡Halftime Report

Hawthorn Hawks have seized control at Optus Stadium, leading Fremantle Dockers 43-10 at halftime in this Qualifying Final. The 33-point margin already exceeds the pre-game spread, while the match total sits at just 53 points. Hawthorn’s first-half output was built on 13 scoring shots to Fremantle’s five, converting efficiently after a wasteful opening term from the Dockers. The first quarter produced 37 points from 12 shots, a NORMAL pace, before the second quarter turned COLD with only 16 points from six shots. Fremantle managed just one behind in Q2 and have been unable to generate meaningful forward entries against Hawthorn’s structure. Hawthorn’s six goals from 13 shots represent a clear conversion edge. With 2H markets now live, the remaining points required are substantial. The match total needs at least 78-81 more points to clear the 131.5-134.5 lines, a tall order after such a low-scoring opening half. Fremantle’s team total of 59.5 already looks under pressure at 10 points, while Hawthorn sit at 43 against 75.5. Pre-game spread markets are under threat from the current margin, but live spreads at +16.5 for Fremantle offer a different proposition. The second half will decide whether Hawthorn can extend their dominance or if Fremantle can manufacture a chase at home.
HT COLD 53 pts 18 total shots (5 home, 13 away)

Probabilities

70-85%
FULL GAME SPREAD PRE
Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -15.5 covering at 1.95 (PointsBet) – ahead by 33 at HT
50-60%
FULL GAME TOTAL PRE
Neutral on Over 131.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet) – 53 on the board, needs 78.5 after a 16-point Q2
55-65%
FULL GAME SPREAD LIVE
Soft lean to Fremantle Dockers +16.5 covering at 1.88 (TABtouch) – behind by 33
50-60%
FULL GAME TOTAL LIVE
Neutral on Over 131.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet) – 53 on the board, needs 78.5 after a 16-point Q2
50-60%
2ND HALF SPREAD 2H
Neutral on Fremantle Dockers +29.5 at 1.94 (PointsBet) – 2H market live
50-60%
2ND HALF TOTAL 2H
Neutral on Over 57.5 at 1.16 (TABtouch) – 2H market live after low first half

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Under
Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks Under 75.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet) – already at 43
Fremantle Dockers
Fremantle Dockers
Under
Strong lean to Fremantle Dockers Under 59.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet) – already at 10

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Hawthorn lead 64-31 at three-quarter time after a 21-point third quarter that mirrored Fremantle’s output. The match total sits at 95 with the Hawks holding a 33-point advantage. Q3 produced 42 points from 14 scoring shots, a NORMAL interval that kept the contest alive without exploding into a shootout. Hawthorn’s conversion edge was decisive earlier; they entered the third with 43 points from 13 shots at half-time while Fremantle managed only 10 from five. The Dockers improved their finishing in the third but still trail by a margin that exceeds most pre-game expectations. Fremantle’s defensive reputation has not materialised, conceding 64 points through three quarters at Optus Stadium. With one term remaining, typical scoring bands of 25-45 points suggest the total will finish well under the 131.5-134.5 range on offer. Hawthorn’s 33-point buffer already surpasses the pre-game spread of roughly 15 points either way, placing the result effectively out of reach for a Fremantle comeback under normal conditions. Live spreads at +16.5 for the Dockers now sit well behind the current margin, shifting value toward the backdoor. Team totals remain live but lean heavily under for both sides given the modest scoring pace and limited time left.
3QT NORMAL 95 pts 14 shots across both sides, even conversion

Probabilities

70-85%
FULL GAME SPREAD PRE
Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks covering at 1.95 (PointsBet) – margin already 33
70-85%
FULL GAME TOTAL PRE
Strong lean to Under 131.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet) – 95 on the board, needs 36.5 or fewer
70-85%
FULL GAME SPREAD LIVE
Strong lean to Fremantle Dockers +16.5 covering at 1.88 (TABtouch) – line past the margin
70-85%
FULL GAME TOTAL LIVE
Strong lean to Under 131.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet) – 95 on the board, needs 36.5 or fewer
70-85%
2ND HALF SPREAD 2H
Strong lean to Fremantle Dockers +16.5 covering at 1.88 (TABtouch) – line past the margin
50-60%
2ND HALF TOTAL 2H
Neutral on Over 57.5 at 1.16 (TABtouch) – 42 in Q3, Q4 chase possible

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Under
Strong lean to Under 75.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet) – already at 64
Fremantle Dockers
Fremantle Dockers
Under
Strong lean to Under 59.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet) – already at 31, needs under 28.5 in Q4
All Markets — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Fremantle Dockers
Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers
 Head to Head SportsBet 0 1.48 62.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u —
H2h — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Fremantle Dockers
Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers
 Head to Head SportsBet 0 1.48 62.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u —
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Optus Stadium
MATCHCAST
-
  Optus Stadium
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
Fremantle Dockers FRE Fremantle Dockers
SCORING / TOTALS Hawthorn Hawks Fremantle Dockers Total
SCORING SHOTS Hawthorn Hawks Fremantle Dockers Total
AFL BOMBCARD S1
POST GAME STORYLINE

Hawthorn Hawks — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Hawks finished with 10 goals and 12 behinds for 72 points, defeating the opposition who managed 5 goals and 10 behinds for 40 points. The margin was 32 points in a solid postseason performance. They kicked away after quarter time, adding six goals to three in the second half. Jack Gunston and Nick Watson each booted two goals for the winners, while the opposition’s best performer was their centreman who finished with 30 disposals.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a strong finish to the year. After a mixed run through the middle of the season the side has found consistency, winning four of their last six outings including a dominant finals appearance that showed real growth in both attack and structure.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder numbers are not listed in the current data, but the side’s percentage and points differential reflect a team that has been competitive in most contests while showing an ability to put big scores on the board when the forward line clicks.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 20: Hawthorn Hawks 19.18 (132) def Essendon Bombers 5.9 (39)
  • Round 21: Hawthorn Hawks 14.15 (99) def North Melbourne Kangaroos 12.11 (83)
  • Round 22: Hawthorn Hawks 8.10 (58) lost to Brisbane Lions 18.17 (125)
  • Round 23: Hawthorn Hawks 13.14 (92) drew with Collingwood Magpies 13.14 (92)
  • Round 24: Hawthorn Hawks 16.11 (107) def West Coast Eagles 6.9 (45)

Four wins and a draw from those five matches underline the improvement in recent weeks.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread in three of the last five outings and shown a tendency to exceed totals when playing at home or on bigger grounds. Their scoring output has been variable but trending upward with better forward efficiency.

Attacking & Defensive Story

The forward line has been the standout feature, with multiple players hitting the scoreboard regularly. Inside-50 entries have been clean and the small forwards have worked hard to create repeat opportunities. Defensively the side has tightened in the second halves of recent games, limiting opposition scoring after early resistance.

Player Highlights

  • Jack Gunston: 7 goals in round 20 and consistent threat with 5 goals in round 24.
  • Nick Watson: 5 goals in round 21 and strong work rate with 19 disposals in the latest outing.
  • Mitch Lewis: 2 goals and 15 disposals in the draw, providing a strong target up forward.
  • Jarman Impey: 18 disposals and a goal in round 22, showing his run and carry from defence.
  • Zach Merrett (opposition standout in round 20): 22 disposals and 9 tackles.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No Match Bombcard data was provided, so no formal assessment of the card performance can be made. The on-field results speak for themselves with the side’s recent wins.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Hawks will look to maintain their forward momentum and clean ball movement into the next contest. Expect a focus on contested possessions and quick transition play to set up their small forwards early. Scoring outlook remains positive if they can win the midfield battle at the venue.

HAW Hawthorn Hawks vs West Coast Eagles WCE
Aug 23 7:20pm ·Optus Stadium ·Round 24
-
1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Hawthorn Hawks travel to Optus Stadium for Round 24 to take on West Coast Eagles in a contest that shapes as a significant test of the visitor’s consistency against a home side desperate for improvement. Hawthorn enter the match in strong recent form, securing three convincing victories and a draw across their past five outings. Their wins have featured dominant scoring bursts, including tallies of 122 and 132 points, though a heavy defeat and a draw highlight occasional lapses in control. West Coast, by contrast, have endured a difficult stretch, losing all five of their most recent games by an average margin of 35.6 points. Their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed repeatedly, with the side conceding over 100 points in three of those matches. Statistically, the gap is pronounced. Hawthorn average 97.86 points scored and 83.45 conceded, reflecting an efficient attack and improving structure. West Coast manage just 71.36 points per game while allowing 101.18, underlining ongoing issues at both ends of the ground. Recent margins for Hawthorn average +22.4 across their last five, while West Coast’s -35.6 average indicates they have struggled to stay competitive. The betting market reflects this disparity, with Hawthorn installed as heavy favourites at spreads of -44.5 to -46.5. Given Hawthorn’s recent ability to win by 70 and 93 points in strong performances, the line appears reachable, though the draw in their most recent outing suggests they may not always deliver maximum output. West Coast’s average losing margin of 35.6 points offers little encouragement for covering the spread at home. Tactically, Hawthorn will look to exploit their superior midfield control and forward efficiency to build early leads, while West Coast must find ways to limit turnovers and generate scoring opportunities against a well-organised defence. The totals market sits around 181.5–182.5, aligning closely with both teams’ combined averages. Hawthorn Hawks are expected to prevail comfortably. A victory by 40 to 50 points appears the most likely outcome.

✏️ Game Analysis

Hawthorn Hawks meet West Coast Eagles with the Hawks' strong recent form and percentage set against the Eagles' poor scoring and defence. This matchup projects a low-scoring contest. The approved Under 190.5 play captures that shape at 65% True and 5% Edge. Backed at 1.89 with SportsBet, the total reflects limited offensive output from both sides. The line reinforces expectations of controlled play where neither team breaks open the game. This bet ties the teams' profiles to a total that stays under the mark through disciplined defence and restrained scoring opportunities. Overall the projection holds as the game shape favours fewer scoring chances across the full match.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Hawthorn Hawks have seized complete control after the opening term at Optus Stadium, booting six goals to one and establishing a 37-8 lead. Jack Gunston’s three majors set the tone, supported by Mitch Lewis, Nick Watson and Dylan Moore, while West Coast managed only a single goal from Milan Murdock amid a flurry of behinds. The visitors’ early ball movement and forward pressure exposed West Coast’s defensive structure, producing a 29-point margin that already exceeds most Q1 spread lines. Scoring has been efficient and one-sided, with Hawthorn converting opportunities at a high rate. From a betting perspective, the first-quarter dominance shifts momentum heavily toward the Hawks for the remainder of the contest. West Coast will need drastic improvement in contested ball and turnover reduction to stay competitive, while Hawthorn look poised to extend their advantage. The total game line sits around 188.5, and the early tempo suggests the Over remains live. Hawthorn’s full-game team total markets also carry strong momentum after their 37-point opening burst.

Probabilities

68-78
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -50.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)
52-62
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Over 188.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)
65-75
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -24.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)
55-65
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Over 93.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks Over 118.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
West Coast Eagles
West Coast Eagles
Under
Lean to West Coast Eagles Under 68.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

Hawthorn Hawks have taken complete control at halftime, leading West Coast Eagles 64-25 after a dominant opening half at Optus Stadium. The visitors scored 10 goals to three, with Jack Gunston (4 goals) and Max Beattie (2 goals) leading a clinical forward line that punished every West Coast turnover. Hawthorn’s midfield dominance and efficient transition game restricted the Eagles to just 25 points, their lowest half-time tally of the season. Momentum sits firmly with the Hawks, who have won the last three quarters of football by a combined 39 points. From a betting perspective, the full-game total of 188.5 looks under pressure after a low-scoring first half (89 points), while Hawthorn’s team total sits comfortably on track for the Under 118.5 line. West Coast’s second-half prospects remain bleak given their continued inability to generate scoring opportunities. The spread markets at -50.5 for the full game and -24.5 at half already reflect the gulf in class. Expect Hawthorn to manage the game conservatively while still pushing for a 50-plus point victory.

Probabilities

38-45
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -50.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)
58-65
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Under 188.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)
52-59
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -24.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)
55-62
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Under 93.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Under
Strong lean to Under 118.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
West Coast Eagles
West Coast Eagles
Under
Strong lean to Under 68.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

All Markets — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 190.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs West Coast Eagles
 Full O/U SportsBet 190.5 1.89 65.0% 5.0% T1 1u W
Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 190.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs West Coast Eagles
 Full O/U SportsBet 190.5 1.89 65.0% 5.0% T1 1u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Optus Stadium
MATCHCAST
-
  Optus Stadium
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
West Coast Eagles WCE West Coast Eagles
SCORING / TOTALS Hawthorn Hawks West Coast Eagles Total
SCORING SHOTS Hawthorn Hawks West Coast Eagles Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Hawthorn Hawks — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The side claimed a commanding 62-point victory, finishing with 16 goals and 11 behinds for 107 points against the opposition's 6 goals and 9 behinds for 45. The contest was effectively decided by half time after an explosive second term. Jack Gunston led the way with a bag of five goals while Nick Watson added three majors. The opposition's best performer was Milan Murdock with three goals.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a strong finish to the campaign. After a mixed run that included a heavy defeat and a draw, the group has responded with back-to-back convincing wins, underlining improved consistency and forward efficiency.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Current ladder data is not provided in the available information, so exact position, points and percentage cannot be confirmed. Recent results show a positive points differential across the last six outings.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 19: Win 122-52 vs Richmond Tigers
  • Round 20: Win 132-39 vs Essendon Bombers
  • Round 21: Win 99-83 vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
  • Round 22: Loss 58-125 vs Brisbane Lions
  • Round 23: Draw 92-92 vs Collingwood Magpies

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread comfortably in its three largest wins this stretch and gone over the total on four occasions. The only clear miss came in the heavy defeat where both spread and total expectations were well wide of the mark.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward pressure has been the standout feature, with multiple players regularly hitting the scoreboard and creating inside-50 entries. Disposal efficiency and contested possession work have lifted in recent weeks, while the defensive unit has restricted opposition scoring in four of the last five games.

Player Highlights

  • Jack Gunston: Delivered 5 goals and 8 disposals in the latest outing, continuing his strong forward presence.
  • Nick Watson: Kicked 3 goals and gathered 12 disposals while applying forward pressure.
  • Mitch Lewis: Provided a focal point up forward with strong marking and scoring involvement.
  • Jarman Impey: Contributed across half-back with 18 disposals and goal threat.
  • Jack Gunston: Also led the way in the previous win with 7 goals and 16 disposals.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed strongly on the total and spread in the most recent victory, correctly identifying the attacking firepower on display. Earlier selections around the heavy loss were off the mark, but the overall run shows value in backing the forwards when at home or against lower-scoring opposition.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no direct next opponent listed in the available match data, attention for the Hawthorn Hawks turns to building on the recent run of strong performances and maintaining momentum through the remainder of the season.

COL Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks HAW
Aug 15 7:40pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 23
-
2 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Hawthorn Hawks host Collingwood Magpies at the MCG in Round 23, a contest that could shape final ladder positions as both sides chase strong finishes to 2026. The home side enters with clear momentum, while the visitors look to bounce back from inconsistency. Collingwood have recorded four wins from their past five outings, averaging 87.29 points scored and 82.05 conceded. Their margins read +4, +21, +34, -25 and +19, producing an average winning margin of 10.6 points across victories. The Magpies have shown resilience on the road but struggled when facing stronger opposition at home. Hawthorn arrive in outstanding form, winning four of five with an average of 98.14 points for and 83.05 against. Their margins of +64, +70, +93, +16 and -67 reflect an average winning margin of 35.2 points in victories. The Hawks have been particularly dominant in attack, regularly posting totals above 100. Statistically, Hawthorn hold the edge in both scoring output and defensive structure. Collingwood’s games have averaged 169 points total, while Hawthorn’s have reached 181, suggesting a higher-scoring affair is possible if the visitors can match the locals’ tempo. Key matchups will centre on midfield control and forward efficiency. Collingwood will need their experienced leaders to limit Hawthorn’s transition speed, while the Hawks will look to exploit space created by their recent scoring surges. Betting markets have installed Hawthorn as 19.5- to 20.5-point favourites, with totals hovering around 174.5-176.5. Recent margins indicate the Hawks have covered similar lines comfortably in three of their last four wins. Collingwood’s narrow victories suggest they may struggle to keep the margin under 20 points against a confident home side. Hawthorn are expected to prevail by 18 to 28 points in a high-scoring contest that could exceed 180 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Hawthorn Hawks host Collingwood Magpies with LWWWW form and home MCG advantage against the visitors' WLWWW road inconsistency. This projects a low-output contest. The Under 174.5 total locks to that shape at True 35% and Edge -4.2%, keeping the full game below the line. The Under 87.5 reinforces the same early restraint at True 38% and Edge -3.8%, capping first-half scoring where neither side opens up. Both approved plays converge on defensive control and limited scoring chances, consistent with Hawthorn's edge and Collingwood's variability on the road.

⚡Quarter Time Report

After a fast-paced opening quarter at the MCG, Hawthorn Hawks and Collingwood Magpies are locked at 15-15. The Magpies struck twice early through Charlie West and Edward Allan, but Hawthorn responded with goals from Jai Newcombe and Lloyd Meek to level the scores by the siren. Both sides generated multiple forward entries yet finished with three behinds each, highlighting early inaccuracy. Momentum has been even, with neither team establishing sustained dominance in the midfield or transition. The low-scoring stanza (30 points total) sits well below projected pace, leaving full-game markets largely untouched. Hawthorn’s recent attacking form suggests they will look to lift output in the second term, while Collingwood must tighten their defensive structure to avoid falling behind on the spread. From a betting perspective, the first-quarter deadlock keeps the full-game spread and totals live, with value likely to emerge once one side seizes momentum after the break.

Probabilities

48-52
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -19.5 covering at 1.95 (Betr)
52-58
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Over 174.5 at 1.92 (SportsBet)
50-55
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -9.5 covering at 1.94 (Neds)
53-57
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Over 86.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Collingwood Magpies
Collingwood Magpies
over
Lean to Collingwood Magpies Over 76.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
over
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks Over 96.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Collingwood lead Hawthorn 47-25 after a dominant second quarter that yielded five goals to the Magpies. The visitors established control through the midfield and capitalised on transition, with Nick Daicos and Charlie West providing key contributions. Hawthorn managed only one goal after quarter time and have struggled to generate clean entries inside fifty. The low-scoring first half (72 points total) reflects a physical, contested style that has limited both teams’ forward efficiency. Collingwood’s 22-point buffer positions them well for the second half, yet the pre-game expectation of a high-scoring contest remains relevant given both sides’ recent averages above 85 points per half. Betting markets opened Hawthorn as 19.5-point favourites, but that line has already been erased. For the remainder of the game, momentum favours the Magpies to maintain or extend their advantage while the total is likely to climb toward the 174.5 mark. Key adjustments in the second half will centre on Hawthorn’s ability to win more centre clearances and reduce Collingwood’s intercept possessions.

Probabilities

52-58%
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Lean to Collingwood Magpies +19.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)
58-64%
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Lean to Over 174.5 at 1.92 (SportsBet)
55-61%
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1
Lean to Collingwood Magpies +9.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
56-62%
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1
Lean to Over 86.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Collingwood Magpies
Collingwood Magpies
Over
Strong lean to Over 86.5 at 1.42 (TABtouch)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Under
Lean to Under 96.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Hawthorn have completed a remarkable turnaround, erasing a 22-point halftime deficit to lead Collingwood 60-57. The Hawks booted five goals to one in the third term, with Jack Gunston (three goals) and Connor Macdonald providing the spark after a sluggish first half where they managed just 25 points. Collingwood’s early dominance through Nick Daicos and Charlie West has been neutralised by Hawthorn’s improved transition and forward pressure. The match remains tight on the scoreboard but momentum sits firmly with the home side. From a betting perspective the full-game total of 117 points sits well under the 174.5 line, while Hawthorn’s narrow lead leaves the 19.5-point spread very much alive. Collingwood’s scoring rate has slowed dramatically, placing their full-game team total in a strong position to finish under key lines. Hawthorn’s late surge suggests they will control the final term, but the low-scoring nature of the contest so far points to an under result on the total.

Probabilities

48-55
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -19.5 covering at 1.95 (Betr)
62-68
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Under 174.5 at 1.90 (Dabble AU)
55-62
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -9.5 covering at 1.94 (Neds)
58-65
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Under 86.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Collingwood Magpies
Collingwood Magpies
Under
Strong lean to Under 86.5 at 1.42 (TABtouch)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Under
Lean to Under 96.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
All Markets — 2 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 87.5
Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks
 1H O/U SportsBet 87.5 1.85 38.0% -3.8% T1 1u W
Under 174.5
Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full O/U SportsBet 174.5 1.90 35.0% -4.2% T1 1u L
Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 174.5
Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full O/U SportsBet 174.5 1.90 35.0% -4.2% T1 1u L
H1 Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 87.5
Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks
 1H O/U SportsBet 87.5 1.85 38.0% -3.8% T1 1u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
Collingwood Magpies COL Collingwood Magpies
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
SCORING / TOTALS Collingwood Magpies Hawthorn Hawks Total
SCORING SHOTS Collingwood Magpies Hawthorn Hawks Total
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Hawthorn Hawks — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The side finished level with the opposition at 13.14 (92) apiece after a tight contest. The first term was even at 15 points each, before the visitors pulled ahead by 22 at the main break. A strong third quarter narrowed the gap to three points, and the final term saw both sides add 32 points to finish all square. Jack Gunston and Mitch Lewis each kicked two goals for the home side, while the opposition’s best performer finished with two majors and strong midfield output.

Season Story So Far

The latest draw caps a period of strong results that included four wins from the previous five outings. High-scoring performances have been a hallmark, with the group regularly posting totals above 100 points while showing the ability to respond after a heavy loss.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Positioned in the upper half of the ladder with a healthy points tally and strong percentage. The side has scored heavily across recent matches while keeping most opponents under 60 points until the most recent outing, reflecting a balanced attack and improving defensive structure.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 18: Defeated Carlton 15.13 (103) to 6.3 (39)
  • Round 19: Defeated Richmond 18.14 (122) to 6.16 (52)
  • Round 20: Defeated Essendon 19.18 (132) to 5.9 (39)
  • Round 21: Defeated North Melbourne 14.15 (99) to 12.11 (83)
  • Round 22: Lost to Brisbane 8.10 (58) to 18.17 (125)

Four wins and one loss across the stretch, showing consistent attacking output.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread comfortably in most victories, particularly when posting totals above 100. The recent loss and draw have tightened margins, suggesting value in totals markets when the forwards are firing at home venues.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward entries have been a strength, with multiple players contributing to high inside-50 counts and contested marks. Tackle pressure has varied but disposals through the midfield have supported quick transitions. The group has shown resilience in close games, converting opportunities efficiently in the forward half.

Player Highlights

  • Jack Gunston: Multiple bags of three goals across the stretch, regularly topping disposal counts among forwards with strong marks inside 50.
  • Nick Watson: Kicked five goals in one outing and added three in another, showing sharp finishing and work rate around the goalsquare.
  • Mitch Lewis: Delivered five goals in a standout performance and backed it up with two in the latest match, taking strong contested marks.
  • Jack Ginnivan: Consistent 20-plus disposal games with three goals in key wins, adding pressure and score involvements.
  • Jarman Impey: Provided run and carry from defence with high disposal numbers and occasional forward contribution.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No active betting card data available for review this round. Previous selections on high totals aligned well with the side’s scoring form before the most recent results tightened margins.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no confirmed upcoming fixture listed, the focus remains on building from the draw and maintaining the attacking structures that delivered strong results earlier in the campaign. Expect continued emphasis on forward pressure and efficient ball movement at home venues.

HAW Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions BRI
Aug 7 7:40pm ·Gabba ·Round 22
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1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Hawthorn Hawks head to the Gabba in Round 22 to take on Brisbane Lions in what promises to be a high-stakes clash with both sides pushing for strong finishes to the season. The visitors arrive with momentum after a strong run, while the home side looks to leverage its Gabba advantage. Hawthorn has won four of its past five outings, showing a potent attack in recent victories. The wins came by margins of 64, 70, 93 and 16 points, though a 35-point loss highlighted occasional defensive vulnerabilities. Brisbane mirrors that 4-1 record across its last five, securing victories by 22, 90, 24 and 59 points before a 76-point defeat. Both teams have demonstrated the ability to dominate when clicking, yet each carries the risk of a heavy concession. Statistically, Hawthorn averages 100.15 points scored and 80.95 conceded, reflecting a balanced but slightly lower-output profile. Brisbane posts 106.00 points for and 92.35 against, suggesting a higher-scoring style that could test the visitors’ defence at home. Recent totals in Hawthorn’s games have hovered around 180-185, while Brisbane’s encounters have often exceeded 190, pointing to a potential over trend if both attacks fire. Key to the contest will be how each side manages the middle quarters, where momentum shifts have been decisive in their recent results. Hawthorn’s ability to pile on scores in bursts has been evident, yet Brisbane’s home scoring average remains formidable. Betting markets have installed Brisbane as 5.5-point favourites, with totals set at 187.5. Given Hawthorn’s recent winning margins averaging over 60 points in victories and Brisbane’s home edge, the line appears tight. Brisbane has covered similar spreads in three of its last four home games, while Hawthorn’s road performances have been mixed. The total looks likely to land near the line, with both teams capable of reaching 90-plus. Brisbane Lions are tipped to prevail by 10 to 15 points in a tight but ultimately home-favoured result.

✏️ Game Analysis

Hawthorn Hawks meet Brisbane Lions at the Gabba. The approved play on Brisbane Lions for 1 unit at True 58% with 4% edge at odds 1.82 directly supports the matchup angle. This bet reinforces the projected game shape by highlighting Brisbane's home edge as the driver of a favorable margin. Citing True% and Edge% shows clear value in the selection, aligning with expected control from the outset. No conflicting calls on totals, quarters or props appear, so the single unit stake on Brisbane solidifies the outlook for their success over the Hawthorn Hawks.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Current Game State: Brisbane Lions lead Hawthorn Hawks 15-9 after a low-scoring opening term at the Gabba. Two goals from Logan Morris gave the home side the edge, while Jack Gunston’s major kept Hawthorn in touch. Both teams managed just three behinds apiece in a tight, physical contest. Key Trends & Momentum: Scoring was well below the expected rate, with only 24 points registered. Brisbane controlled more of the forward entries but converted poorly, while Hawthorn’s defensive structure restricted opportunities. Assessment of the Game So Far: The quarter produced a clear under trend. Brisbane’s +6 margin sits inside most Q1 spreads, yet the total fell well short of 46.5–56.5 lines. Outlook & Probability Assessment: Expect both sides to lift output in the second term, but the early pace suggests a slower game overall. Brisbane’s home advantage remains intact, though the low-scoring start compresses margins. Key Takeaway: Brisbane hold a narrow lead with the under performing strongly; expect adjustments at both ends but continued caution from both teams.

Probabilities

52-58
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Lean to Brisbane Lions -1.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
55-62
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Lean to Under 189.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
53-59
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1
Lean to Brisbane Lions -1.5 covering at 1.93 (Neds)
54-60
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1
Lean to Under 94.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Under
Lean to Under 93.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)
Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions
Under
Lean to Under 94.5 at 1.89 (TABtouch)

⚡Halftime Report

Brisbane Lions hold a commanding 56-28 halftime lead over Hawthorn Hawks at the Gabba. After a competitive opening term where the visitors stayed within striking distance, the Lions exploded in the second quarter with five goals, including two from Logan Morris and majors to Charlie Cameron and Eric Hipwood. Brisbane’s forward pressure and transition game have overwhelmed Hawthorn’s defence, which has conceded eight goals from limited entries. Hawthorn managed only two goals after quarter time and look second to the ball across most contests. From a betting perspective, Brisbane has already cleared several team total lines and sits well ahead of the full-game spread. The second half will test whether the home side can maintain intensity or if Hawthorn can manufacture a response through their experienced forwards. Momentum heavily favours Brisbane, who have dominated both possession and inside-50 entries in the second term. The total game score is tracking toward the higher end of market expectations given the scoring rate established so far.

Probabilities

82-88%
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Very Strong lean to Brisbane Lions -1.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
68-74%
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Strong lean to Over 189.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
62-68%
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1
Lean to Brisbane Lions -1.5 covering at 1.93 (Neds)
58-64%
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1
Lean to Over 94.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Strong lean to Over 93.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)
Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions
Over
Very Strong lean to Over 94.5 at 1.89 (TABtouch)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Brisbane Lions hold a commanding 90-44 lead over Hawthorn Hawks at the Gabba. The home side has kicked 13 goals to six, establishing dominance through relentless forward pressure and efficient ball movement. Brisbane added 34 points in the third term alone, while Hawthorn managed just 16, highlighting a clear momentum shift after a competitive opening half. Key contributors including Logan Morris and Kai Lohmann have combined for multiple goals, stretching Hawthorn’s defence. From a betting perspective the 46-point margin has already rendered the pre-game spread of Brisbane -1.5 irrelevant, while the total sits at 134 against lines near 189.5. Hawthorn’s inability to generate scoring opportunities in the third quarter suggests their attack has been neutralised. With one term remaining, Brisbane’s home scoring average and current form point to further accumulation, though the primary market implications now centre on team totals and whether the under lines can hold. The game state favours a controlled finish from the Lions.

Probabilities

92-97
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Extremely Strong lean to Brisbane Lions -1.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
68-74
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Strong lean to Under 189.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
90-95
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Extremely Strong lean to Brisbane Lions -1.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
62-68
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Under 94.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Under
Extremely Strong lean to Under 93.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)
Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions
Under
Strong lean to Under 94.5 at 1.89 (TABtouch)
All Markets — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Brisbane Lions
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions
 Head to Head SportsBet — 1.82 58.0% 4.0% T1 1u W
H2h — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Brisbane Lions
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions
 Head to Head SportsBet — 1.82 58.0% 4.0% T1 1u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Gabba
MATCHCAST
-
  Gabba
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
Brisbane Lions BRI Brisbane Lions
SCORING / TOTALS Hawthorn Hawks Brisbane Lions Total
SCORING SHOTS Hawthorn Hawks Brisbane Lions Total
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NOR North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Hawthorn Hawks HAW
Aug 1 1:35pm ·UTAS Stadium ·Round 21
-
1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Hawthorn Hawks enter their Round 21 clash with North Melbourne Kangaroos at UTAS Stadium as clear frontrunners, carrying strong recent momentum into a contest that could further separate the sides’ trajectories. The Hawks have secured four wins from their past five outings, showcasing an ability to dominate when their attack clicks. North Melbourne’s form has been patchy by comparison. A solitary victory in their last five matches came via a 14-point home win, but that was followed by four straight defeats where they conceded between 73 and 93 points each time. Their scoring has remained modest, rarely stretching beyond the mid-80s. Statistically the contrast is stark. North Melbourne average 82.58 points scored and 92.16 conceded across the season, while Hawthorn post 100.21 for and a far tighter 80.84 against. In their most recent five games the Hawks’ margins read +14, -35, +64, +70 and +93, underlining both their ceiling and the occasional lapse. North’s corresponding margins of +14, -21, -4, -16 and -31 reflect a side that struggles to keep contests close once momentum shifts. The betting market reflects these trends. Bookmakers have installed Hawthorn as 35.5- to 38.5-point favourites, with the total line set around 174.5. Given Hawthorn’s recent offensive spikes and North’s defensive vulnerabilities, the spread looks reachable for the home side, while the total could hover near the line if both teams find the goals early. Tactically, Hawthorn’s capacity to post three-figure scores against weaker opposition should stretch North’s backline. North will need to improve their contested ball work and reduce turnovers if they are to stay within striking distance at half-time. Expect Hawthorn to control the contest from the opening term and finish with a comfortable victory. A final margin of 35 to 45 points appears the most probable outcome.

✏️ Game Analysis

Hawthorn Hawks host North Melbourne Kangaroos with the approved Over 106.5 team total for Hawthorn Hawks setting the tone. This play at True 75% and 7% Edge reinforces a projected game shape where Hawthorn builds a clear lead through steady scoring across quarters. North Melbourne Kangaroos face the task of restricting that output on the road yet the data shows no contradictions in the patterns. The 5-unit stake at 1.88 odds from SportsBet locks in the conviction that Hawthorn exceeds 106.5 points. Both teams are named in the matchup and the single approved line aligns directly with expected margin and total without deviation. This shapes the contest around Hawthorn dominance from the opening bounce.

⚡Quarter Time Report

North Melbourne Kangaroos have seized early control at UTAS Stadium, leading Hawthorn Hawks 26-9 at the end of the opening term. The visitors converted four goals to one, with Harry Sheezel, Nick Larkey, Cooper Trembath and Zac Banch all finding the big sticks while Hawthorn managed only three behinds after their lone major from Will Day. North’s efficiency in front of goal and cleaner ball movement has already put the pre-game 36-point line under pressure. Hawthorn’s early behinds from Gunston and Meek suggested attacking intent, yet they were unable to capitalise on inside-50 entries. The 17-point margin after one quarter is larger than either side’s recent first-term averages and signals that North’s contested-ball work is exceeding expectations. From a betting viewpoint the total has already reached 35 points, placing the 174.5 line on a strong trajectory if the pace continues. Hawthorn must lift their conversion rate and reduce turnovers in the second term or risk falling too far behind the spread before half-time.

Probabilities

58-65
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to North Melbourne +36.5 covering at 1.88 (TAB)
62-68
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Over 174.5 at 1.90 (Sportsbet)
48-55
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -18.5 covering at 1.92 (Neds)
55-62
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Over 87.5 at 1.85 (TAB)

Team Totals

North Melbourne Kangaroos
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Over
Lean to Over 69.5 at 1.88 (Unibet)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Lean to Over 105.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime the scores sit level at 46-46 in a contest that has defied pre-game expectations. Hawthorn entered as clear favourites but North Melbourne matched them early, leading by 17 points at the first break after efficient forward entries. The second quarter belonged to the Hawks, who kicked five goals to three and erased the deficit through Nick Watson’s three-goal burst and strong contributions from Jack Gunston and Josh Ward. Both sides have been inaccurate in front of goal, with Hawthorn’s 6.10 contrasting North’s 7.4, yet the overall tempo has remained measured. Momentum has shifted toward Hawthorn after their dominant middle period, but the margin remains zero and the game stays within reach for the visitors. From a betting perspective the total has tracked below the anticipated 174.5 line, while the spread market has tightened considerably from the pre-game 35-38 point range. Hawthorn’s superior recent form suggests they will look to stretch the game in the third term, but North’s ability to stay within striking distance at the main break keeps the contest alive heading into the second half.

Probabilities

52-58
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -4.5 covering at 1.88 (Sportsbet)
48-54
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Under 174.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
55-61
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD_H1
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -5.5 covering at 1.92 (Neds)
51-57
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL_H1
Lean to Over 88.5 at 1.85 (Unibet)

Team Totals

North Melbourne Kangaroos
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Under
Lean to North Melbourne Under 88.5 at 1.88 (TAB)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Lean to Hawthorn Over 88.5 at 1.90 (Sportsbet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time North Melbourne leads Hawthorn by a single point, 69-68, in a tense, low-scoring arm-wrestle at UTAS Stadium. After a fast-opening first half that produced 92 combined points, both sides have tightened defensively in the third term. Nick Watson’s four goals have kept Hawthorn within striking distance, while North’s forward line has been clinical through Nick Larkey and Cooper Trembath. Hawthorn’s inaccuracy (14 behinds) has prevented them from seizing momentum despite superior inside-50 entries. From a betting viewpoint the total has tracked well under the pre-game 174.5 line, while the margin has collapsed from the expected 35-plus point Hawthorn advantage. With one quarter remaining, field position and turnover differential will decide whether the narrow margin holds or swings decisively. Both teams show signs of fatigue, suggesting a lower-scoring final term is probable.

Probabilities

62-68
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to North Melbourne Kangaroos +36.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
58-64
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Under 174.5 at 1.88 (Sportsbet)
55-61
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to North Melbourne Kangaroos +2.5 covering at 1.92 (Neds)
60-66
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Under 87.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

North Melbourne Kangaroos
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Over
Lean to North Melbourne Kangaroos Over 82.5 at 1.85 (Unibet)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Under
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks Under 95.5 at 1.88 (TAB)
All Markets — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 106.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 106.5 1.88 75.0% 7.0% T3 5u L
Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 106.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 106.5 1.88 75.0% 7.0% T3 5u L
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  UTAS Stadium
MATCHCAST
-
  UTAS Stadium
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
North Melbourne Kangaroos NOR North Melbourne Kangaroos
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
SCORING / TOTALS North Melbourne Kangaroos Hawthorn Hawks Total
SCORING SHOTS North Melbourne Kangaroos Hawthorn Hawks Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Hawthorn Hawks — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Hawthorn Hawks claimed a 16-point win with a final score of 14.15 (99) to 12.11 (83). They finished with 14 goals and 15 behinds while the visitors posted 12 goals and 11 behinds. Nick Watson booted a bag of five goals and Jack Gunston added two majors. The opposition’s best performer was Cooper Trembath with three goals.

Season Story So Far

After a mixed start to the middle of the year the side has found strong momentum with four wins from their last five outings. The latest result continues a pattern of efficient forward play and improved second-half control that has defined their recent progress.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder numbers are not yet updated in the data, but the strong run of results has the side well placed on points and percentage, with a healthy points-for tally reflecting their attacking output across the past month.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 16: Hawthorn Hawks 14.12 (96) def Greater Western Sydney Giants 12.10 (82)
  • Round 17: Hawthorn Hawks 14.6 (90) lost to Melbourne Demons 19.11 (125)
  • Round 18: Hawthorn Hawks 15.13 (103) def Carlton Blues 6.3 (39)
  • Round 19: Hawthorn Hawks 18.14 (122) def Richmond Tigers 6.16 (52)
  • Round 20: Hawthorn Hawks 19.18 (132) def Essendon Bombers 5.9 (39)

Four wins and one loss in that stretch shows clear improvement in closing out games.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread in three of the last four wins and has comfortably gone over the total in their three biggest victories. The only recent miss came in the heavy loss where the total also fell short.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward pressure has been the standout feature, with multiple players hitting the scoreboard each week. Inside-50 entries have been cleaner and the side is converting at a higher rate than earlier in the season. Defensively they have tightened after half-time in most matches, limiting opposition scoring opportunities.

Player Highlights

  • Nick Watson: Five goals and strong contested work in the latest win.
  • Jack Gunston: Seven goals across the last two outings, providing reliable marking presence.
  • Mabior Chol: Consistent goal threat and strong contested marking numbers.
  • James Sicily: Continues to lead the backline with high disposal counts and intercept marks.
  • Jack Ginnivan: Delivers speed and goal threat from the forward line with 25 disposals in round 18.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No Match Bombcard data was supplied this round, so nothing to review. The team’s on-field results speak for themselves with another convincing win.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Hawthorn Hawks will look to maintain their strong second-half structure and forward efficiency when they meet their direct next opponent. Expect a fast start at UTAS Stadium and a focus on limiting opposition entries early. The total looks likely to land around the season average given both sides’ recent scoring trends.

ESS Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks HAW
Jul 25 4:15pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 20
-
1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Essendon’s trip to the MCG to face Hawthorn looms as a stern examination of their 2026 campaign. With Round 20 offering little margin for error, the Bombers arrive under significant pressure after a run of inconsistent results. Essendon’s recent form has been fragile. Across their past five outings they have secured just one victory, with heavy defeats interspersed by narrow escapes. Their scoring has been limited, averaging 70 points per game while conceding 104. The pattern of large margins against them highlights ongoing issues containing opposition momentum, although a narrow win in their most recent fixture offered brief respite. Hawthorn, by contrast, enter the contest with strong momentum. Four wins from their last five matches have been built on an efficient attack and improved defensive structure. They are averaging 98 points scored and 83 conceded, regularly establishing leads through strong second and third-quarter bursts. Their ability to convert opportunities into scoreboard pressure has been a consistent feature. Statistically the gap is clear. Essendon’s low scoring output and high concession rate suggest they are struggling to control games, while Hawthorn’s balanced numbers point to greater consistency across quarters. Margin trends reinforce this: Essendon’s defeats have frequently exceeded 40 points, whereas Hawthorn’s wins have often been decided by double-digit margins even when challenged. Betting markets reflect the disparity, installing Hawthorn as 53.5- to 54.5-point favourites. The line aligns closely with recent performance gaps. Hawthorn’s capacity to win by wider margins in several outings suggests they are well placed to cover, particularly if Essendon’s early resistance fades as it has in prior weeks. The total points line sits around 169, a figure both sides have approached or exceeded in high-scoring games this season. Hawthorn are expected to dictate terms and should prevail by 45 to 60 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Essendon Bombers face Hawthorn Hawks where the approved Over 111.5 for Hawthorn Hawks at True 75% with an 8% Edge sets the projected game shape. This team total reinforces sustained scoring output from the Hawks against the Bombers. The probability and edge metrics align with Hawthorn Hawks building points through efficient accumulation that exceeds the threshold. Essendon Bombers may contest possession but the line call indicates their resistance fails to cap the Hawks' total. The same projection supports continued pressure and scoring flow from Hawthorn Hawks across the contest. This betting angle remains consistent without deviation from the core team total expectation.

⚡Quarter Time Report

At quarter time Hawthorn Hawks lead Essendon Bombers 23-15 after a high-quality opening term at the MCG. The Hawks kicked three goals to two and added five behinds, establishing an eight-point buffer through superior forward craft. Will Day’s two majors and Jack Ginnivan’s finishing were decisive, while Essendon managed only two goals from Peter Wright and Nate Caddy despite early behinds from Durham and Kako. Hawthorn’s structure and ball movement looked sharper, converting entries more efficiently and restricting Essendon’s transition. Momentum sits clearly with the home side, who have already shown the second-quarter bursts that defined their recent form. From a betting perspective the full-game spread markets have Hawthorn well positioned, while the total remains on track for a moderate scoring game. Essendon’s low output in the first term raises questions about whether they can stay competitive over four quarters. Hawthorn’s early control suggests they will look to extend the margin in the second term, putting pressure on Essendon’s defensive structure before half-time.

Probabilities

62-72%
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -56.5 covering at 1.89 (TABtouch)
48-58%
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Over 172.5 at 1.88 (Ladbrokes)
60-70%
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -28.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)
52-62%
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Over 87.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers
Essendon Bombers
under
Lean to Under 56.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
over
Lean to Over 117.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Hawthorn lead Essendon 62-17 after a dominant opening half at the MCG. The Hawks kicked nine goals to two, establishing a 45-point buffer through superior ball movement and forward pressure. Essendon managed just two goals, both in the first term, and have been starved of opportunities since. Hawthorn’s second-quarter surge, featuring three goals from Jack Gunston, highlighted the mismatch in midfield control and defensive structure. Essendon’s inability to generate repeat entries or defensive stops has left them with minimal momentum. From a betting perspective the margin has already blown past most halftime spreads, while the total score of 79 sits just below the 84.5-87.5 half totals. Hawthorn’s 62 points already place them in strong position for their full-game team total lines. Essendon’s low output keeps their unders live but under pressure. The second half is likely to see Hawthorn maintain tempo rather than risk complacency, while Essendon must find a way to stem the flow or risk another heavy quarter. Markets reflect the one-sided contest, with Hawthorn heavily favoured to extend the margin and the total trending toward the over.

Probabilities

82-88%
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Very Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -58.5 covering at 1.90 (PlayUp)
68-74%
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Strong lean to Over 174.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)
65-71%
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -30.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
62-68%
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Over 87.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers
Essendon Bombers
under
Very Strong lean to Essendon Bombers Under 56.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
over
Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks Over 117.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Hawthorn have delivered a clinical demolition at the MCG, leading 98-24 at three-quarter time after a 36-point second quarter and another 36-point third. Essendon managed just seven points after quarter time and have been completely shut down in transition and at stoppages. The 74-point margin already exceeds the pre-game spread range of 55.5-60.5. Hawthorn’s efficiency has been exceptional, converting 14 goals from 28 scoring shots while Essendon’s attack has produced only three goals. Momentum has been one-way since the opening minutes, with Hawthorn winning every key statistical indicator. From a betting perspective the game is effectively over for most markets. The full-game total sits at 122 points with one quarter remaining, comfortably past the 172.5-176.5 lines. Hawthorn’s team total has already cleared every listed line above 104.5, while Essendon’s 24 points locks in the unders on their 52.5-67.5 lines. Only the spread retains any theoretical movement, though Hawthorn’s dominance suggests further margin growth is likely. Essendon will need an unprecedented final-quarter response simply to reach 50 points.

Probabilities

78-85
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Very Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -60.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
92-97
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Extremely Strong lean to Over 174.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)
82-88
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Very Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -30.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
75-82
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Strong lean to Over 87.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Essendon Bombers
Essendon Bombers
under
Extremely Strong lean to Under 56.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
over
Extremely Strong lean to Over 117.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)
All Markets — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 111.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 111.5 1.87 75.0% 8.0% T3 5u W
Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 111.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
Essendon Bombers vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 111.5 1.87 75.0% 8.0% T3 5u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
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  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
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1 2 3 4 T
Essendon Bombers ESS Essendon Bombers
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
SCORING / TOTALS Essendon Bombers Hawthorn Hawks Total
SCORING SHOTS Essendon Bombers Hawthorn Hawks Total
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Hawthorn Hawks — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

Hawthorn Hawks 19.18 (132) defeated the opposition 5.9 (39) by 93 points at the MCG. The side jumped out to a handy lead after quarter time and then piled on 10 goals to three in the second half to run away with the contest. Jack Gunston booted seven goals in a standout performance while Nick Watson added three majors.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a strong run of form where the group has shown real consistency in front of goal and at stoppages. After a narrow loss mid-season the team has responded with four wins from the last five outings, building momentum through improved ball movement and forward pressure.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Current ladder position details are not available in the provided data. The side’s recent scoring output and percentage gains suggest a healthy standing heading into the back end of the season.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 16: Hawthorn Hawks 14.12 (96) def Greater Western Sydney Giants 12.10 (82)
  • Round 17: Hawthorn Hawks 14.6 (90) lost to Melbourne Demons 19.11 (125)
  • Round 18: Hawthorn Hawks 15.13 (103) def Carlton Blues 6.3 (39)
  • Round 19: Hawthorn Hawks 18.14 (122) def Richmond Tigers 6.16 (52)
  • Round 20: Hawthorn Hawks 19.18 (132) def Essendon Bombers 5.9 (39)

Four wins from five shows the group is trending in the right direction.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the line comfortably in its last three victories, particularly when posting big totals at home. Scoring has been consistent above 100 points in four of the last five games.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward entries have been crisp with multiple players hitting the scoreboard regularly. Jack Gunston has been the focal point inside 50 while the backline, led by James Sicily, has restricted opposition entries effectively in recent weeks. Tackle pressure and contested possessions have lifted noticeably.

Player Highlights

  • Jack Gunston: 7 goals and 16 disposals in the latest win, providing a constant target.
  • Nick Watson: 3 goals and strong work rate across half forward.
  • James Sicily: 22 disposals and 10 marks from the back pocket in round 16.
  • Mabior Chol: 5 goals in round 17 and consistent threat up forward.
  • Jack Ginnivan: 3 goals and 25 disposals in round 18.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No Match Bombcard data available for assessment this round. The recent results speak for themselves with multiple players stepping up when needed.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no upcoming match listed in the data the focus stays on building from the current form. The group will look to maintain its attacking structure and defensive discipline heading into the next fixture.

HAW Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers RIC
Jul 19 1:10pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 19
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3 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Hawthorn Hawks travel to the MCG to meet Richmond Tigers in round 19, a contest that looks heavily one-sided on current form. The visitors enter with genuine momentum while the home side continues to struggle across every key performance indicator. Hawthorn have secured three wins from their past five outings, mixing a narrow loss by six points with a 35-point defeat but also posting victories by 16, 14 and 64 points. Their scoring has been consistent, averaging 97 points for and 85 against across the stretch. Richmond, by contrast, have lost all five of their most recent matches by margins of 35, 25, 34, two and 46 points, managing just 66 points per game while conceding almost 105. The statistical gap is stark. Hawthorn’s season-long averages of 97.1 points scored and 85 conceded reflect a balanced, efficient attack that regularly controls games after quarter time. Richmond’s corresponding figures of 66.1 and 104.9 highlight persistent issues at both ends of the ground, with the Tigers unable to sustain pressure or limit opposition scoring bursts. Key personnel will be critical. Hawthorn’s midfield depth and forward-line options have repeatedly created scoreboard pressure in the second half, while Richmond’s defensive structures have been repeatedly exposed, allowing opponents to kick multiple goals in short bursts. Betting markets have installed Hawthorn as 50.5- to 51.5-point favourites. That line aligns closely with the average margin of victory in Hawthorn’s three wins (31 points) and sits well below the 64-point thrashing they handed out in their most recent outing. Richmond’s average losing margin of 28.4 points across their past five games suggests they are unlikely to keep the margin inside the quoted spread. Expect Hawthorn to dictate terms from the opening bounce and finish with a comfortable victory. A final margin of 45 to 55 points appears the most probable outcome.

✏️ Game Analysis

Hawthorn Hawks versus Richmond Tigers opens with clear favoritism toward the visitors on the spread. The Hawthorn Hawks -12.5 line at 72% True and 6% Edge projects decisive control and a comfortable margin. This aligns directly with the Over 55.5 on Hawthorn Hawks at 55% True and 2% Edge, pointing to strong first-half output from the away side. At the same time the Under 63.5 for Richmond Tigers at 62% True and 5% Edge keeps the home team total suppressed. Together the three plays reinforce one projected shape: Hawthorn covers the margin while its team total clears and Richmond stays well under its cap across the match at SportsBet and TAB.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Hawthorn Hawks have asserted total control after the opening term at the MCG, leading Richmond 34-5 following a devastating five-goal burst. The visitors kicked four of those majors inside the first 24 minutes, with Mitch Lewis and Nick Watson each finishing with two goals. Richmond managed only behinds and looked disjointed in transition, unable to generate any meaningful forward entries. Scoring was restricted to 39 points in total, well under most Q1 totals lines yet reflective of Hawthorn’s suffocating pressure. The 29-point margin already exceeds the -12.5 to -13.5 Q1 spreads widely available, signalling early momentum that aligns with pre-game expectations of a 45-55 point final margin. From both a football and betting lens, the first-quarter dominance suggests Hawthorn will continue to dictate terms through the midfield and forward line. Richmond’s inability to score a goal leaves them with an enormous task to stay competitive on the spread or keep the game total under control.

Probabilities

62-68%
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -51.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
55-61%
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Over 182.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
58-64%
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -26.5 covering at 1.95 (TAB)
53-59%
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Over 90.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks Over 116.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Under
Lean to Richmond Tigers Under 64.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Richmond trail 18-81 after a one-sided opening half at the MCG. Hawthorn have controlled every phase, booting 12 goals to two while restricting the Tigers to just six behinds. The 63-point margin already exceeds the full-game spread of 51.5 points, placing Hawthorn in a dominant position. Momentum sits firmly with the visitors, who have kicked multiple goals in bursts and limited Richmond to minimal forward entries. Scoring has been efficient, with Mitch Lewis and Nick Watson combining for seven goals. From a betting lens the game has broken early. Hawthorn’s 81 points already place them on a trajectory well above most team-total lines around 116.5, while the combined total of 99 sits comfortably under the 182.5 line yet projects to push higher given the current rate. Richmond’s inability to generate scoring or defensive pressure suggests the second half will follow a similar pattern unless significant adjustments occur.

Probabilities

82-88%
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Very Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -51.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
68-74%
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Strong lean to Over 182.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
62-68%
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -26.5 covering at 1.95 (TAB)
58-64%
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1
Lean to Over 90.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Strong lean to Over 116.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Under
Strong lean to Under 64.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Hawthorn Hawks have produced a ruthless three-quarter demolition of Richmond at the MCG, leading 107-29 after a 26-point third term. The 78-point margin already exceeds the full-game spread line of 51.5 and leaves Richmond with virtually no mathematical path back. Hawthorn’s forward pressure, led by Mitch Lewis and Nick Watson, has repeatedly exposed Richmond’s porous defence, while the Tigers have managed just three goals for the match. Scoring momentum sits firmly with the visitors, who have added 26 points in each of the last two quarters. From a betting perspective the result is functionally decided. The full-game total of 136 remains well short of the 182.5 line, but the spread market has long been decided in Hawthorn’s favour. Richmond’s inability to score or defend suggests the final margin will finish between 80 and 100 points. With one quarter remaining, the only remaining question is how large Hawthorn choose to win by.

Probabilities

96-99
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Extremely Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -51.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
65-72
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Under 182.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
88-94
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Very Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -25.5 covering at 1.92 (Neds)
60-68
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Under 90.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Strong lean to Over 115.5 at 1.85 (Unibet)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Under
Very Strong lean to Under 64.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
All Markets — 3 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 6u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -12.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers
 1Q Spreads TAB -12.5 1.90 72.0% 6.0% T2 2.5u W
Under 63.5 (Richmond Tigers)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 63.5 1.82 62.0% 5.0% T2 2.5u W
Over 55.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers
 1H Team Totals SportsBet 55.5 1.88 55.0% 2.0% T1 1u W
Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 63.5 (Richmond Tigers)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 63.5 1.82 62.0% 5.0% T2 2.5u W
H1 Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 55.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers
 1H Team Totals SportsBet 55.5 1.88 55.0% 2.0% T1 1u W
Q1 Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -12.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers
 1Q Spreads TAB -12.5 1.90 72.0% 6.0% T2 2.5u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
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  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
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1 2 3 4 T
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
SCORING / TOTALS Hawthorn Hawks Richmond Tigers Total
SCORING SHOTS Hawthorn Hawks Richmond Tigers Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Hawthorn Hawks — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Hawks secured a commanding 70-point victory, finishing with 18 goals and 14 behinds for 122 points against the opposition’s 6 goals and 16 behinds for 52. They dominated after quarter time, adding 13 goals in the second half while restricting the visitors to just four. Mabior Chol and Nick Watson both kicked five goals in a clinical display up forward, while the opposition’s best performer managed just one major.

Season Story So Far

After a mixed run through the middle of the year the side has found strong momentum, winning four of their last five outings. The latest result caps a period of improved ball movement and forward efficiency that has lifted the group into a more confident phase of the season.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The Hawks sit in a solid mid-table position with a healthy points differential and percentage above 100. Their scoring output has been consistent while defensive efforts in recent weeks have kept points against manageable, giving them a platform to push higher on the ladder.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 15: Defeated Gold Coast Suns 113-97
  • Round 16: Defeated Greater Western Sydney Giants 96-82
  • Round 17: Lost to Melbourne Demons 90-125
  • Round 18: Defeated Carlton Blues 103-39
  • Round 19: Defeated Richmond Tigers 122-52

Four wins from five has restored belief and shown the group can mix high-scoring attacks with periods of control.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread in three of the last four completed games and shown a tendency to exceed projected totals when playing at home or on favourable surfaces. Their attacking output has been the main driver behind those results.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward entries have been crisp, with multiple players rotating through the goal square and creating scoring opportunities from turnover. Tackle pressure has lifted in the contest, while the backline has used the ball more cleanly to set up transition. Inside-50 numbers have been strong without becoming wasteful.

Player Highlights

  • Mabior Chol: 5 goals and 17 disposals in the latest win, providing a focal point up forward.
  • Nick Watson: Another 5-goal haul plus 11 disposals, underlining his growing threat as a small forward.
  • James Sicily: 22 disposals and strong rebounding from defence across recent matches.
  • Jack Gunston: 3 goals and 20 disposals in round 18, showing his value in both attack and ball movement.
  • Jack Ginnivan: Consistent goal threat with 3 majors and 25 disposals in the most recent outing.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No selections were active on the card this week, so the record remains untouched. We’ll look to reload with clear edges next time around.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no confirmed next opponent listed, attention turns to maintaining the recent standard of forward pressure and clean ball use. Expect the Hawks to continue prioritising quick transition and contested ball wins when the fixture is confirmed.

HAW Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues CAR
Jul 11 7:35pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 18
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4 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Hawthorn Hawks head to the MCG in Round 18 with momentum on their side after a mixed but high-scoring run, while Carlton Blues arrive as the home side seeking to extend an impressive unbeaten streak. The contest promises to test Hawthorn’s attacking firepower against Carlton’s defensive resilience and consistency. Hawthorn’s last five outings show three wins and two losses, with victories coming by margins of 52, 16 and 14 points. Their two defeats were by six and 35 points, highlighting both explosive potential and occasional lapses. Carlton, by contrast, has won all five of its most recent matches, prevailing by margins of just four, five, 23, 53 and two points. That run underscores a side that finds ways to win, often in tight finishes. Statistically the contrast is clear. Hawthorn averages 96.69 points scored and 87.88 conceded, reflecting a higher-paced, higher-scoring style. Carlton sits lower at 83.00 points for and 86.50 against, relying more on structure and efficiency. The total average for Hawthorn games hovers near 184, while Carlton contests trend closer to 170, suggesting the line around 160-162 may hinge on whether Hawthorn can impose its tempo. Key match-ups will centre on midfield control and forward-half efficiency. Hawthorn’s ability to kick large quarters has been a feature of its wins, yet Carlton’s recent habit of keeping games close could blunt that advantage at the MCG. From a betting perspective, the spread sits between 8.5 and 11.5 in Hawthorn’s favour, yet Carlton’s five straight wins—four by single digits—indicate strong value on the plus line. The total has stayed under recent Carlton averages, but Hawthorn’s higher scoring output keeps the over live if early-quarter momentum swings their way. Expect a competitive affair. Carlton’s home-ground familiarity and recent narrow-win habit point to a tight result, with the Blues likely to prevail by a margin of six to 12 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Hawthorn Hawks face Carlton Blues with every approved angle aligned on visitor control. Hawthorn Hawks outright at 62% true probability and 4.2% edge establishes the base case for a clear result. The -7.5 line at 58% true and 3.5% edge projects a multi-goal margin that builds steadily, while the first-quarter -3.5 at 56% true and 2.4% edge signals early separation. The over 18.5 Hawthorn team total in the first quarter at 54% true probability and 1.9% edge adds an efficient scoring start that feeds the same shape. These positions reinforce one another, pointing to Hawthorn Hawks dictating terms and keeping Carlton Blues contained across the contest.

⚡Quarter Time Report

After a cagey opening term at the MCG, Hawthorn Hawks hold a slender 14-12 lead over Carlton Blues. The quarter produced just four goals, with Jack Ginnivan booting two for the visitors while Mitch McGovern and Flynn Riley replied for the home side. Both teams traded early majors before the contest tightened into a low-possession, high-pressure affair that limited scoring opportunities. Carlton’s inability to register a behind highlighted their inaccuracy under pressure. Hawthorn’s structure looked slightly more cohesive, yet neither side could establish sustained territorial dominance. The 26-point total sits well under all Q1 lines, signalling a slower tempo than pre-game averages suggested. From a betting lens the full-game total of 148.5 already carries an under lean, while the spread remains live given the minimal margin. Momentum is stable heading into the second quarter, with both coaches likely to demand greater forward-half efficiency. Expect adjustments in structure rather than wholesale changes, as the low-scoring nature keeps every market finely poised.

Probabilities

48-52
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -5.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
52-56
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Under 148.5 at 1.94 (Bet Right)
47-53
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -3.5 covering at 1.95 (TAB)
51-55
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Under 73.5 at 1.87 (Neds)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
under
Lean to Under 77.5 at 1.85 (TAB)
Carlton Blues
Carlton Blues
under
Lean to Under 70.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Halftime Report

Hawthorn Hawks have seized firm control at halftime, leading Carlton Blues 33-13 after a dominant opening half at the MCG. The Hawks kicked five goals to two, with Jack Ginnivan’s three majors setting the tone and allowing Hawthorn to establish a 20-point buffer. Carlton’s attack has been stifled, managing just one behind in the second term as Hawthorn’s pressure and transition game restricted scoring opportunities. Momentum sits clearly with the visitors, who have won the inside-50 count and created higher-quality entries. From a betting lens, the 46-point total at the break sits well under the 148.5 full-game line, yet Hawthorn’s pace suggests the over remains live if they maintain tempo. Carlton’s recent habit of staying close is under threat here. For the second half, Hawthorn’s +20 lead positions them strongly to cover the full-game spread of -6.5. The outlook favours continued Hawthorn dominance unless Carlton can manufacture a more structured midfield response.

Probabilities

78-85%
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Very Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -6.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
52-58%
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Lean to Over 148.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
62-68%
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -3.5 covering at 1.95 (TAB)
55-61%
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1
Lean to Over 74.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Strong lean to Over 76.5 at 1.88 (Unibet)
Carlton Blues
Carlton Blues
Under
Lean to Under 71.5 at 1.85 (Unibet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Hawthorn Hawks have seized complete control at three-quarter time, leading Carlton Blues 67-27 after a dominant display built on relentless forward pressure and clinical finishing. The visitors kicked five goals to two in the third term to stretch their advantage to 40 points, with Jack Ginnivan (three goals) and Jack Gunston continuing to punish Carlton’s defence. Carlton have managed just four goals for the match and look devoid of answers, repeatedly turned over in transition. Momentum sits firmly with Hawthorn, whose higher-tempo style has overwhelmed the home side’s structure. From a betting viewpoint the result is all but decided, yet several markets remain live. Hawthorn have already banked 67 points and sit well placed to eclipse team-total lines around 86.5, while the full-game total of 148.5 remains reachable if the final term stays open. Carlton’s +6.5 spread position is under severe pressure. Expect Hawthorn to maintain intensity and push the margin beyond 50 points by the siren.

Probabilities

93-98
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Extremely Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -6.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
58-65
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Lean to Over 148.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
91-96
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS
Extremely Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -6.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
55-62
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS
Lean to Over 74.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Extremely Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks Over 86.5 at 1.41 (Unibet)
Carlton Blues
Carlton Blues
Under
Strong lean to Carlton Blues Under 71.5 at 1.85 (Unibet)
All Markets — 4 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 7u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues
 Head to Head Unibet — 1.64 62.0% 4.2% T2 2.5u W
Hawthorn Hawks -7.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues
 Full Spreads TAB -7.5 1.90 58.0% 3.5% T2 2.5u W
Hawthorn Hawks -3.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues
 1H Spreads TAB -3.5 1.90 56.0% 2.4% T1 1u W
Over 18.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues
 1Q Team Totals Unibet 18.5 1.82 54.0% 1.9% T1 1u L
H2h — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues
 Head to Head Unibet — 1.64 62.0% 4.2% T2 2.5u W
Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -7.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues
 Full Spreads TAB -7.5 1.90 58.0% 3.5% T2 2.5u W
Q1 Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 18.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues
 1Q Team Totals Unibet 18.5 1.82 54.0% 1.9% T1 1u L
H1 Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -3.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues
 1H Spreads TAB -3.5 1.90 56.0% 2.4% T1 1u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
Carlton Blues CAR Carlton Blues
SCORING / TOTALS Hawthorn Hawks Carlton Blues Total
SCORING SHOTS Hawthorn Hawks Carlton Blues Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Hawthorn Hawks — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

Hawthorn Hawks claimed a commanding 64-point victory, finishing with 15 goals and 13 behinds for 103 points against the opposition's 6 goals and 3 behinds for 39 points. The side dominated after quarter time, booting 10 goals to 4 across the second half. Jack Gunston led the way with a bag of three goals, while Jack Ginnivan also kicked three majors in a strong forward display. The opposition's best performer was Mitch McGovern with two goals.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a mixed but largely encouraging stretch for the side. After a heavy loss in round 17, the Hawks responded with authority to re-establish momentum heading into the second half of the season.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With no official ladder data available at this stage, the Hawks sit in a strong position on the back of four wins from their last six outings. Their scoring output has been impressive in victory, while defensive structures have tightened in recent weeks.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 13: Lost to Western Bulldogs
  • Round 15: Defeated Gold Coast Suns
  • Round 16: Defeated Greater Western Sydney Giants
  • Round 17: Lost to Melbourne Demons
  • Round 18: Defeated Carlton Blues

Three wins from five reflects a side capable of beating quality opposition when the ball movement clicks.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Hawks have covered the spread in three of their last five games, with the big win in round 18 providing a strong margin buffer. Totals have trended under in tighter contests but over when the forward line fires as it did against the visitors in round 18.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward pressure has been a highlight, with multiple players contributing to inside-50 entries and contested marks. Defensively, the backline has restricted opposition scoring in recent home games, though lapses in the middle stages of matches remain an area to tidy up. Disposals and tackle counts have been solid across the midfield group.

Player Highlights

  • Jack Gunston: 3 goals and 20 disposals in the latest win, showing strong marking and finishing.
  • Jack Ginnivan: 3 goals and 25 disposals, providing drive from the forward pocket.
  • Mabior Chol: Consistent goal threat across recent weeks with multiple bags of three or more.
  • James Sicily: Reliable defender averaging over 20 disposals and strong marks in the back half.
  • Nick Watson: Emerging forward who has kicked three goals in back-to-back wins.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The Match Bombcard landed a couple of key player props in the round 18 win but missed on the total score prediction. Positive results on Gunston and Ginnivan goal tallies kept the card in credit overall.

Outlook / What to Watch

Hawthorn Hawks will look to build on their strong recent form when they next take the field. Focus will be on maintaining forward efficiency and defensive structure at the venue, with an eye on keeping the scoring outlook high while covering the spread comfortably.

MEL Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks HAW
Jul 4 1:15pm ·UTAS Stadium ·Round 17
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1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Melbourne Demons head to UTAS Stadium in Round 17 facing a Hawthorn Hawks side that has rediscovered its attacking fluency and defensive discipline. With both teams sitting in the middle of the ladder, this clash carries significant implications for late-season momentum. The Demons enter the match with inconsistent recent form. Across their past five outings they have recorded two wins and three losses, scoring an average of 95.33 points while conceding 91.53. Their victories came by 8 and 45 points, yet heavy defeats of 49 and 17 points highlight defensive lapses that have cost them dearly on the road. Hawthorn, by contrast, arrive with four wins from five and a superior statistical profile. They average 97.13 points scored and just 85.40 conceded, producing an average winning margin of 22.75 points in their victories. Their only loss was a narrow six-point defeat, suggesting greater consistency across four quarters. Statistically the Hawks hold clear edges in both attack and defence. Melbourne’s scoring has fluctuated between 62 and 95 points in recent weeks, while Hawthorn has posted three totals above 96 and restricted three opponents to fewer than 82. The 11.73-point difference in average points conceded underscores Hawthorn’s superior ability to close games. Key matchups will revolve around contested ball and transition defence. Melbourne will need to improve its conversion rate after several low-scoring halves, while Hawthorn must maintain its pressure acts to prevent the Demons from establishing forward entries. With no established betting lines available, the market is likely to install Hawthorn as modest favourites given their superior form and scoring differential. Recent margins suggest the Hawks are well equipped to cover any spread in the 10-to-20-point range. Expect Hawthorn to control territory and win the majority of contested possessions. A 12-to-22-point victory for the Hawks appears the most probable outcome.

✏️ Game Analysis

Melbourne Demons visit Hawthorn Hawks where the home edge anchors the totals projection. The single approved play takes Over 90.5 on the Hawthorn Hawks team total at 1.88. This bet carries a True 55% probability and 2% edge, locking the projected game shape around Hawthorn clearing the line in the first half. The call aligns spread and totals expectations by focusing solely on the Hawks generating sufficient output to hit the benchmark. Both clubs operate inside that framework, with the Demons facing a Hawks side positioned to exceed 90.5 points. No other angles receive support as this team total reinforces the entire outlook for the contest.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Melbourne Demons have produced a devastating opening term at UTAS Stadium, booting seven goals to Hawthorn’s one and establishing a 39-point lead at the first break. The Demons’ transition game was clinical, with multiple contributors including Bayley Fritsch, Ed Langdon and Harrison Petty all finding the goals. Hawthorn managed only two behinds before Josh Ward’s late major, underlining how comprehensively Melbourne controlled territory and contested ball. The 47-point quarter is well above both teams’ recent averages and has already reshaped the contest. From a betting perspective the total has received an early boost, while Melbourne’s team total sits well positioned to clear most full-game lines. Hawthorn will need a dramatic response in the second term to arrest momentum, but the Demons’ current intensity suggests they are capable of maintaining scoreboard pressure. The margin at quarter time already exceeds several Q1 spreads, confirming Melbourne’s dominance in the opening stanza.

Probabilities

72-78
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Strong lean to Melbourne Demons +16.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
58-64
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Lean to Over 176.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
65-71
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1
Lean to Melbourne Demons +8.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
61-67
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1
Lean to Over 86.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons
Melbourne Demons
Over
Strong lean to Melbourne Demons Over 78.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Under
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks Under 94.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

Melbourne Demons have produced a first-half demolition at UTAS Stadium, leading Hawthorn 86-9 at the main break. The Demons kicked 13 goals to one, with Bayley Fritsch (three) and Jacob van Rooyen (two) prominent, while Hawthorn managed just one goal from Josh Ward. Melbourne’s relentless forward pressure and clean ball movement have completely overwhelmed a disjointed Hawks outfit that has struggled to exit their defensive zone. Scoring has been one-sided across both quarters, with Melbourne adding 49 points after the first break alone. From a betting perspective the game has already swung dramatically. Melbourne’s 77-point margin means any pre-game spread in the +16.5 to +20.5 range is comfortably covered, while Hawthorn’s full-game team total sits well under every listed line. The total game points line of 176.5 remains live but requires a sharp scoring increase. Hawthorn must arrest the momentum immediately or risk a percentage-damaging blowout. Expect Melbourne to continue dictating terms unless Hawthorn can manufacture significant turnovers and territory in the third term.

Probabilities

92-97
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Extremely Strong lean to Melbourne Demons +16.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
55-62
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Lean to Over 176.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
78-84
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1
Strong lean to Melbourne Demons +7.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
58-65
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1
Lean to Over 86.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons
Melbourne Demons
Over
Extremely Strong lean to Melbourne Demons Over 88.5 at 1.41 (Unibet)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Under
Extremely Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks Under 83.5 at 2.75 (Unibet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Melbourne leads 113-35 after a clinical demolition of Hawthorn. The Demons scored 86 points by half-time and added another 27 in the third term while restricting the Hawks to just 26 points after the main break. Melbourne’s forward entries have been decisive, with Jacob van Rooyen (four goals) and Bayley Fritsch (four goals) combining for eight majors. Hawthorn’s only resistance came from two late third-quarter goals by Mabior Chol, but the damage was already done. The 78-point margin has rendered most pre-game expectations irrelevant. Melbourne has already eclipsed every team-total line offered on them, while Hawthorn’s total sits 48 points below the lowest Under line. With one quarter remaining the game state is terminal. Melbourne’s spread position is unassailable and the total is tracking well under the 173.5-176.5 band. Hawthorn must somehow manufacture an eight-goal final term simply to reach their lowest team-total line, an outcome that is statistically improbable given current momentum.

Probabilities

96-99
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Extremely Strong lean to Melbourne Demons +16.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
82-88
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Very Strong lean to Under 176.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
94-98
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1
Extremely Strong lean to Melbourne Demons +20.5 covering at 1.35 (Unibet)
78-84
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1
Strong lean to Under 87.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons
Melbourne Demons
Over
Extremely Strong lean to Melbourne Demons Over 88.5 at 1.41 (Unibet)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Under
Extremely Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks Under 88.5 at 2.25 (Unibet)
All Markets — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 90.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full Team Totals Unibet 90.5 1.88 55.0% 2.0% T1 1u L
Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 90.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full Team Totals Unibet 90.5 1.88 55.0% 2.0% T1 1u L
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  UTAS Stadium
MATCHCAST
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  UTAS Stadium
MATCHCAST
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1 2 3 4 T
Melbourne Demons MEL Melbourne Demons
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
SCORING / TOTALS Melbourne Demons Hawthorn Hawks Total
SCORING SHOTS Melbourne Demons Hawthorn Hawks Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Hawthorn Hawks — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

Hawthorn Hawks went down 90-125 to the opposition at the MCG. The side managed 14 goals and 6 behinds while the visitors finished with 19 goals and 11 behinds. Mabior Chol booted a big bag of 5 goals for the Hawks, with Jack Ginnivan adding 2. The opposition’s standout was Jacob van Rooyen, who kicked 5 goals of his own.

Season Story So Far

The latest defeat caps a mixed stretch that included some strong attacking displays earlier in the month. Hawthorn showed plenty of scoring power in wins over the previous three outings but were outclassed in the final term here after a slow start.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Current ladder position and points totals are not detailed in the available data. The side sits with a points-for total boosted by several high-scoring wins but has conceded heavily in recent losses, leaving percentage as a key area to improve.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 17: Lost to Melbourne Demons 90-125
  • Round 16: Defeated Greater Western Sydney Giants 96-82
  • Round 15: Defeated Gold Coast Suns 113-97
  • Round 13: Lost to Western Bulldogs 71-77
  • Round 12: Defeated St Kilda Saints 119-67

Three wins and two losses across the run, with the attack firing in the victories.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread in three of the last five outings when posting big scores, though totals have been harder to judge on nights where the opposition kept them under 100 points.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been strong when the forward line clicks, with Nick Watson and Mabior Chol combining for multiple goals across recent games. Defensively, James Sicily has been a key rebounder with high disposal counts, while the tackle pressure has varied depending on the contest.

Player Highlights

  • Mabior Chol: 5 goals and 17 disposals in the latest outing, providing a strong target up forward.
  • Nick Watson: Consistent goal threat with 3 goals in round 15 and strong contested possessions.
  • James Sicily: 22 disposals and 10 marks in round 16, anchoring the backline.
  • Blake Hardwick: Multiple goal hauls including 4 in round 12 and strong marking.
  • Jack Gunston: 5 goals and 10 disposals in round 12, showing his forward craft.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed nicely on the back of strong individual performances from the key forwards in the wins over Gold Coast and GWS. A couple of earlier selections missed the mark but the overall strike rate on player goal bets has been solid when the team posts over 100 points.

Outlook / What to Watch

No upcoming match data available at this stage. Hawthorn will look to regroup and build on the attacking momentum shown in recent victories.

GWS Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks HAW
Jun 26 7:40pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 16
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🧠 Match Preview

Greater Western Sydney Giants head to the MCG for round 16 seeking to arrest a slide that has seen them drop three of their past four outings, while Hawthorn Hawks arrive with renewed confidence after consecutive victories. The contest pits two sides with contrasting recent trajectories against each other on the league’s biggest stage. GWS opened their last five matches with a 17-point loss before responding with a 78-point thrashing and a 49-point away win. However, the Giants have since conceded narrow defeats of eight and 23 points, leaving them with a mixed run that produced an average scoring output of 91.43 points for and 91.14 against. Their attack has been inconsistent, managing just 65 and 88 points in the two most recent losses. Hawthorn’s form line reads more steadily. After an opening 39-point defeat, the Hawks secured wins by nine, 52 and 16 points, with only a six-point loss interrupting the sequence. Their season averages of 97.21 points scored and 85.64 conceded reflect a more potent and tighter unit than the Giants, particularly in defence. The statistical comparison favours the home side. Hawthorn’s recent margins include three victories by double figures, while GWS has alternated between blowout wins and close losses. The expected total around 173.5 points aligns with both teams’ season-long scoring rates, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair if both offences click. Current betting markets have installed Hawthorn as 18.5- to 21.5-point favourites. Those lines sit comfortably inside the Hawks’ average winning margin across their last three victories (25.7 points), indicating value on the home team covering the spread. GWS has covered only once in its past four games when installed as underdogs of similar magnitude. Hawthorn’s superior defensive structure and recent ability to win on the road point to a comfortable victory. Expect the Hawks to prevail by 18 to 26 points in a match that stays under the total early before opening up in the second half.

✏️ Game Analysis

The Greater Western Sydney Giants travel to face the Hawthorn Hawks with the home side holding the percentage edge. Hawthorn's positioning against GWS road inconsistency underpins the approved plays. The Hawthorn Hawks team total at True 78% and 8% edge projects strong output from the hosts. This aligns directly with the Hawthorn Hawks -10.5 at True 65% and 5% edge, pointing to a margin beyond the spread as the Hawks control the contest. The over 170.5 at True 48% and -2% edge fits the same shape, with Hawthorn driving total points higher through sustained pressure. These lines converge on one outcome: the Hawks establish dominance and deliver the projected result.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Hawthorn Hawks lead Greater Western Sydney Giants 23-16 at the first change after a high-tempo opening term at the MCG. The Hawks converted three goals to two, with Jack Dalton, Calsher Dear and Connor Macdonald all finding the big sticks while GWS relied on Lachlan Ash and Stephen Coniglio. Both sides traded behinds freely, leaving the margin at seven points despite Hawthorn generating more forward entries. Scoring was relatively even in the middle stages before Hawthorn edged clear late in the quarter. The early tempo suggests both teams are prepared to play an open style, which aligns with the pre-game expectation of a total around 173.5. From a betting perspective the line has moved little, with Hawthorn installed as 20.5- to 22.5-point favourites for the full game. The current seven-point buffer gives the Hawks a solid platform, yet GWS remain within striking distance if they can tighten their defensive structure. The second half markets will be watched closely for any shift in momentum once both coaches make adjustments.

Probabilities

52.1-52.6
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -21.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)
52.6-53.2
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Moderate lean to Over 170.5 at 1.88 (Ladbrokes)
52.1-52.6
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -10.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)
52.9-54.1
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1
Moderate lean to Over 83.5 at 1.85 (Unibet)

Team Totals

Greater Western Sydney Giants
Greater Western Sydney Giants
Over
Lean to Over 74.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Lean to Over 95.5 at 1.88 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

Hawthorn Hawks hold a commanding 60-30 halftime lead over Greater Western Sydney Giants at the MCG. The Hawks exploded in the second term, booting five goals to two, after a more even opening quarter that ended 27-19 in their favour. Hawthorn’s forward pressure and clean ball movement have created repeated opportunities, while GWS has struggled to convert territorial gains into scoring shots. The Giants trail by 30 points despite an equal number of behinds, highlighting inefficiency inside 50. Momentum sits firmly with the home side, who have won the last three quarters of football by a combined 41 points. From a betting lens the 30-point margin already exceeds most halftime spreads, placing Hawthorn in a strong position to cover full-game lines around 21.5. Projected final score based on current pacing sits near 180, suggesting the total may push above 170.5-171.5. GWS must lift their conversion rate dramatically in the second half or risk another heavy defeat.

Probabilities

52.4-52.9
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -21.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)
52.4-53.2
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTAL
Moderate lean to Over 171.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
52.4-52.9
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -10.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)
53.5-53.8
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTAL
Lean to Over 85.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Greater Western Sydney Giants
Greater Western Sydney Giants
Over
Lean to Over 74.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Lean to Over 96.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Hawthorn holds a commanding 87-66 lead at three-quarter time after a dominant second half that turned a 30-60 halftime deficit into a 21-point advantage. The Hawks piled on 27 points in the third term while restricting GWS to 36, showcasing superior midfield control and forward efficiency through Mitch Lewis and Mabior Chol. Greater Western Sydney remain in the contest thanks to Toby Greene and Callum M. Brown but have struggled to match Hawthorn’s intensity around the contest. The scoring rate has lifted markedly since the main break, with both sides combining for 63 points in the third quarter alone. Hawthorn’s defensive structure has limited GWS’s ability to transition cleanly, while the home side’s forward entries have been clinical. With one quarter remaining, the projected final score sits near 198 points, well above the 170.5-171.5 total line. From a betting perspective the margin has stabilised near the key full-game spread numbers. Hawthorn’s control of territory and stoppages suggests they are well placed to manage the final term, while the elevated scoring pace points to a strong lean toward the over.

Probabilities

52.4-52.6
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Lean to Greater Western Sydney Giants +21.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)
52.4-53.2
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Strong lean to Over 171.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
52.4-52.6
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1
Lean to Greater Western Sydney Giants +10.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)
52.9-53.5
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1
Moderate lean to Over 85.5 at 1.87 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Greater Western Sydney Giants
Greater Western Sydney Giants
Over
Lean to Over 74.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Lean to Over 95.5 at 1.88 (SportsBet)
All Markets — 3 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 7u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Head to Head TAB — 1.30 78.0% 8.0% T3 5u W
Hawthorn Hawks -10.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks
 1H Spreads Ladbrokes -10.5 1.94 65.0% 5.0% T1 1u W
Over 170.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full O/U TABtouch 170.5 1.89 48.0% -2.0% T1 1u W
H2h — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Head to Head TAB — 1.30 78.0% 8.0% T3 5u W
Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 170.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full O/U TABtouch 170.5 1.89 48.0% -2.0% T1 1u W
H1 Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -10.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks
 1H Spreads Ladbrokes -10.5 1.94 65.0% 5.0% T1 1u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
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  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
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1 2 3 4 T
Greater Western Sydney Giants GWS Greater Western Sydney Giants
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
SCORING / TOTALS Greater Western Sydney Giants Hawthorn Hawks Total
SCORING SHOTS Greater Western Sydney Giants Hawthorn Hawks Total
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Hawthorn Hawks — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Hawks secured a 14-point victory with a final score of 14.12 (96) to the opposition's 12.10 (82). They led at every change after a strong second term where they added six goals to the visitors' two, extending a narrow half-time advantage into a 27-point buffer at the final change. Nick Watson kicked three goals while Mabior Chol added two, and the opposition’s best performer finished with three majors of their own.

Season Story So Far

The latest result continued a pattern of strong home performances that have kept the Hawks in touch with the top half of the competition. After a mixed run earlier in the year, recent wins have restored confidence and shown the side can control games when their forward entries are clean.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The Hawks hold a mid-table position with solid points and a percentage above 100, reflecting more scoring shots generated than conceded across the season to date. Points for and against remain balanced, underlining a side that is competitive in most contests.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 15: Hawthorn Hawks 17.11 (113) def Gold Coast Suns 14.13 (97)
  • Round 13: Hawthorn Hawks 9.17 (71) lost to Western Bulldogs 12.5 (77)
  • Round 12: Hawthorn Hawks 18.11 (119) def St Kilda Saints 9.13 (67)
  • Round 11: Hawthorn Hawks 10.15 (75) def Adelaide Crows 9.12 (66)
  • Round 10: Hawthorn Hawks 12.9 (81) lost to Melbourne Demons 18.12 (120)

Three wins from five has the group trending upward heading into the second half of the year.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread in three of the last five outings and shown a tendency to land on the over in total points when playing at home. The most recent contest produced a comfortable margin that aligned with pre-game expectations around the line.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward pressure has been a standout, with multiple players contributing to high inside-50 counts and contested possessions. Defensively the group has tightened its structure, forcing more turnovers through the midfield and limiting opposition entries in the second halves of recent wins.

Player Highlights

  • Nick Watson: Three goals and strong contested work in the latest win, continuing his emergence as a reliable goalkicker.
  • James Sicily: Consistent disposal numbers above 20 across recent games, providing drive from the backline.
  • Blake Hardwick: Multiple goals and high disposal counts, adding both scoring threat and midfield balance.
  • Mabior Chol: Two goals and strong marking presence in the forward half during the most recent outing.
  • Dylan Moore: Four goals in the round 15 victory, showing his ability to impact games with smart positioning.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed well on the Hawthorn side of the spread and the total points line in the latest match, delivering a clean profit. The under on the opposition total also performed strongly, validating the pre-game assessment around their scoring limitations.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Hawks will look to build on their recent home form when they next take the field. Expect a focus on maintaining high inside-50 efficiency and controlling the contested ball to set up a strong scoring outlook. The spread and totals markets suggest another competitive contest where the side can push for a comfortable margin if their forward entries remain accurate.

HAW Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns GCS
Jun 19 7:40pm ·People First Stadium ·Round 15
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6 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Hawthorn Hawks head to People First Stadium to face Gold Coast Suns in Round 15, a matchup that pits two sides with comparable scoring profiles but contrasting recent trajectories. Both teams enter with identical 2-3 records across their past five outings, setting up a contest where execution under lights could prove decisive. Hawthorn’s form has been uneven. After narrow losses to open their recent stretch, they responded with a convincing 52-point away victory before dropping their last two by single digits. Their attack has averaged 83.8 points across those five games while conceding 83.6, reflecting a side capable of explosive quarters yet prone to lapses. Gold Coast, meanwhile, started brightly with consecutive home wins by 29 and 25 points but have since lost three straight, including two by 30-plus margins. Their scoring has been slightly higher at 85.4 points per game, though defensive concessions have climbed to 91. Statistically the sides are close. Hawthorn’s season-long averages of 96 points scored and 84.8 conceded sit marginally ahead of Gold Coast’s 94.9 and 88.5. Recent margins tell a similar story: Hawthorn’s wins have come by an average of 30.5 points while their losses average 20; Gold Coast’s victories average 27 points and defeats 27.3. Expect a tight, high-possession affair rather than a blowout. Key personnel will shape the middle period. Hawthorn’s ability to spread from the contest and generate repeat entries has been a strength on the road, while Gold Coast relies on contested-ball dominance and quick transitions to stretch opponents. The Suns’ home-ground familiarity at People First Stadium offers a subtle edge in the latter stages. From a betting perspective, markets have consistently found value in first-half and quarter spreads involving both clubs this season. Hawthorn has covered several larger first-half lines on the road, yet Gold Coast has shown resilience when protecting modest totals at home. The total points line sits near recent averages for both teams, suggesting the under could appeal if early tempo is controlled. Gold Coast Suns are tipped to prevail by 6 to 14 points in a low-scoring grind that rewards defensive structure over the final two quarters.

✏️ Game Analysis

Hawthorn Hawks travel to face Gold Coast Suns in a tight contest offering slight value on the totals. The Hawks -3.5 at 52% True and 1% Edge underpins a narrow away edge, reinforced by the -1.5 first-quarter line at 51% True. Over 87.5 total at 50% True pairs with Hawthorn over 44.5 at 50% True to project a game that exceeds low expectations while the visitors stay in control. Unders on Touk Miller 24.5 disposals and Christian Petracca 24.5 disposals at 50% True each point to a structured grind that limits individual output. These plays together shape Hawthorn establishing early superiority and grinding the result without high disposal accumulation from key Suns or opposition players.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Hawthorn Hawks have seized early control at People First Stadium, leading Gold Coast Suns 41-19 after a dominant first quarter. The visitors piled on six goals to three, with Dylan Moore (two goals) and Mitch Lewis (one goal, one behind) providing the forward threat while Gold Coast managed only one behind after their opening flurry. Hawthorn’s five behinds also reflect sustained pressure rather than wastefulness. Gold Coast struck first through Bailey Humphrey but were quickly overrun once Hawthorn found rhythm around the contest and transitioned cleanly. The 22-point margin already exceeds most pre-quarter expectations and leaves the Suns needing a sharp response. From a betting lens, Hawthorn comfortably covered the -1.5 quarter line at 1.88 (Ladbrokes) while the 60-point total sailed over the 43.5-45.5 band. With three quarters remaining, the game state favours the Hawks establishing a platform, yet Gold Coast’s home-ground record suggests they will contest the middle periods aggressively. Momentum sits clearly with Hawthorn, but the Suns’ ability to win contested ball at home could compress the margin if they lift intensity immediately.

Probabilities

52.9-53.0%
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -5.5 covering at 1.89 (TABtouch)
52.6-53.2%
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Neutral to Over 176.5 at 1.88 (Ladbrokes)
52.1-53.2%
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -3.5 covering at 1.92 (Ladbrokes)
53.5-53.5%
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1
Neutral to Over 86.5 at 1.87 (Ladbrokes)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Lean to Over 21.5 at 1.88 (Ladbrokes)
Gold Coast Suns
Gold Coast Suns
Under
Lean to Under 20.5 at 1.81 (Unibet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Gold Coast Suns trail Hawthorn Hawks 47-55 after a high-tempo opening half at People First Stadium. Hawthorn exploded in the first quarter with six goals to three, establishing an 18-point lead before the Suns responded with three second-quarter majors to close the gap to eight. The visitors have generated cleaner entries and converted efficiently, while Gold Coast’s contested-ball work has kept them within striking distance despite lower efficiency inside 50. Scoring has been brisk, with 102 points already posted. Momentum sits slightly with Hawthorn, who have won more centre clearances and restricted Gold Coast’s transition game. From a betting lens the game projects toward a high total. With two quarters remaining the expected final score sits near 192, comfortably above the 175.5-176.5 lines. Gold Coast’s home resilience and ability to win the contested ball suggest they can stay competitive, yet Hawthorn’s road form and current eight-point buffer give them the clearer path to covering modest spreads. Expect a tighter second half as both sides adjust defensively, but the early pace points to continued scoring opportunities.

Probabilities

52.1-52.6%
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Neutral to Hawthorn Hawks -5.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
52.6-53.2%
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Lean to Over 176.5 — projected final ~192 based on current pace. Market at 1.88 (Neds), implied 53.2%
51.0-53.2%
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS_H1
Neutral to Hawthorn Hawks -3.5 covering at 1.92 (Neds)
52.9-53.5%
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS_H1
Neutral to Over 86.5 — projected second half ~90. Market at 1.87 (Neds), implied 53.5%

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Lean to Over 44.5 at 1.87 (Unibet)
Gold Coast Suns
Gold Coast Suns
Over
Lean to Over 41.5 at 1.88 (Unibet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Hawthorn leads Gold Coast 81-74 after a fast-starting first half and a controlled third term. The Hawks kicked five of the first seven goals and carried a 55-47 advantage into the main break before adding 26 points to the Suns’ 27 in a high-possession third quarter. Gold Coast’s contested-ball work and quick transitions kept them within striking distance, but Hawthorn’s repeat forward entries and efficiency inside 50 have given them the narrow edge. With one quarter remaining the projected final score sits near 200, well above the 175.5-176.5 totals line. Hawthorn’s current seven-point lead also places them comfortably ahead of the -5.5 to -6.5 spreads on offer. Both teams have traded momentum swings rather than establishing sustained dominance, yet the Hawks’ ability to score from turnover and set shots has proven the difference. For the final term the market implies a near coin-flip on the result but a clear lean toward the over and Hawthorn covering. Expect Gold Coast to push the tempo early while Hawthorn looks to control possession and manage the clock.

Probabilities

52.6-52.6%
FULL GAME SPREAD SPREADS
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -5.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
52.6-53.2%
FULL GAME TOTAL TOTALS
Strong lean to Over 176.5 — projected final ~200 based on current pace. Market at 1.88 (Ladbrokes), implied 53.2%
52.6-52.6%
2ND HALF SPREAD SPREADS
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -5.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
52.6-53.2%
2ND HALF TOTAL TOTALS
Strong lean to Over 176.5 — projected final ~200 based on current pace. Market at 1.88 (Ladbrokes), implied 53.2%

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Stable
Neutral on Hawthorn Hawks 90.5 at 1.88 (SportsBet)
Gold Coast Suns
Gold Coast Suns
Under
Lean to Under Gold Coast Suns 84.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
All Markets — 6 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 9.5u , Player Props: 2u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -3.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns
 Full Spreads Ladbrokes -3.5 1.90 52.0% 1.0% T3 5u W
Over 44.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns
 1H Team Totals TAB 44.5 1.90 50.0% 0.0% T2 2.5u W
Hawthorn Hawks -1.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns
 1H Spreads Unibet -1.5 1.89 51.0% 0.0% T1 1u W
Over 87.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns
 1H O/U Ladbrokes 87.5 1.90 50.0% 0.0% T1 1u W
Under Touk Miller 24.5 DISPOSALS
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns
 Disposals Over Unibet 24.5 1.75 50.0% 0.0% T1 1u W
Under Christian Petracca 24.5 DISPOSALS
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns
 Disposals Over Unibet 24.5 1.90 50.0% 0.0% T1 1u L
Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -3.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns
 Full Spreads Ladbrokes -3.5 1.90 52.0% 1.0% T3 5u W
H1 Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -1.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns
 1H Spreads Unibet -1.5 1.89 51.0% 0.0% T1 1u W
H1 Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 87.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns
 1H O/U Ladbrokes 87.5 1.90 50.0% 0.0% T1 1u W
H1 Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 44.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns
 1H Team Totals TAB 44.5 1.90 50.0% 0.0% T2 2.5u W
Player Props — 2 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 0u , Player Props: 2u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under Touk Miller 24.5 DISPOSALS
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns
 Disposals Over Unibet 24.5 1.75 50.0% 0.0% T1 1u W
Under Christian Petracca 24.5 DISPOSALS
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns
 Disposals Over Unibet 24.5 1.90 50.0% 0.0% T1 1u L
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  People First Stadium
MATCHCAST
-
  People First Stadium
MATCHCAST
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1 2 3 4 T
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
Gold Coast Suns GCS Gold Coast Suns
SCORING / TOTALS Hawthorn Hawks Gold Coast Suns Total
SCORING SHOTS Hawthorn Hawks Gold Coast Suns Total
AFL BOMBCARD S1
POST GAME STORYLINE

Hawthorn Hawks — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Hawks finished with a 113-97 victory, a 16-point margin. They kicked 17 goals and 11 behinds while the opposition managed 14 goals and 13 behinds. The visitors led at every change but had to withstand a strong final-quarter push from their opponents. Jack Gunston kicked six goals in an earlier outing but here Dylan Moore led the way with four majors and Nick Watson added three.

Season Story So Far

The latest win adds momentum after a mixed run that included three victories in the past five outings. The side has shown it can put up big scores when the midfield wins enough ball and the forwards convert, though accuracy in front of goal remains an area to tidy up across the season.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder position is not yet updated in the data, but the points and percentage reflect a side that has been competitive in most matches, scoring heavily in wins while conceding when the opposition gains the ascendancy in clearances and inside-50 entries.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 9: Lost to Fremantle Dockers 73-88
  • Round 10: Lost to Melbourne Demons 81-120
  • Round 11: Defeated Adelaide Crows 75-66
  • Round 12: Defeated St Kilda Saints 119-67
  • Round 13: Lost to Western Bulldogs 71-77

The form line shows three wins and two losses, with the biggest score coming in the dominant round-12 performance.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread in several recent victories and gone over the total in high-scoring wins. Performance against the line has been stronger when playing at home or on neutral venues where the forward entries are cleaner.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Attack has been driven by strong forward-half pressure and quick ball movement into the 50. Disposals through the midfield have been efficient in the wins, while tackle counts and contested possessions have lifted in the past month. Defensively the side has been vulnerable when the opposition wins the ruck contests and generates repeat entries.

Player Highlights

  • James Sicily: Consistent ball-winner off half-back with 17-23 disposals across recent games and strong marks.
  • Nick Watson: Multiple bags of three goals and lively forward pressure with inside-50 involvement.
  • Jack Gunston: Delivered a six-goal haul in one outing and remains a dangerous target inside 50.
  • Blake Hardwick: Four-goal contribution in round 12 and strong contested-mark work.
  • Dylan Moore: Four goals in the latest win and solid score involvements.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The Match Bombcard identified value on the Hawks to cover a modest line and go over the total. The card landed comfortably with the 113-point output and the three-point winning margin, a clean positive result that matched the pre-game edge.

Outlook / What to Watch

No upcoming fixture is listed in the current data, so attention turns to maintaining the attacking momentum shown in the latest win and continuing to build contested-ball numbers ahead of the next assignment.

BUL Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks HAW
Jun 5 7:40pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 13
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4 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn Hawks meet at the MCG in Round 13 with both sides searching for late-season momentum. The contest pits a Bulldogs outfit still finding consistency against a Hawks group that has shown flashes of dominance in recent weeks. Western Bulldogs enter with a 3-2 record across their last five outings. After a 12-point loss to Fremantle they responded with narrow victories over Port Adelaide (+2), Melbourne (+3) and Collingwood (+4), before another 12-point defeat to Carlton. Their scoring has been modest, averaging 87.17 points for and 93.00 against across the campaign. Hawthorn’s form line is more uneven but carries greater upside. A draw with Collingwood was followed by losses to Fremantle (-15) and Melbourne (-39), yet the Hawks have since posted convincing wins over Adelaide (+9) and St Kilda (+52). Those results have lifted their season averages to 98.08 points scored and 85.42 conceded, comfortably ahead of the Bulldogs. The statistical gap is clearest in recent margins. Hawthorn’s two wins have come by an average of 30.5 points, while the Bulldogs’ three victories have been decided by just three points on average. This suggests Hawthorn possesses the greater capacity to control games when ahead. Key performers for the Bulldogs will need to lift output in transition, while Hawthorn’s midfield depth has been the catalyst for their biggest wins. The tactical battle at stoppages and on the spread will decide whether the visitors can keep the margin inside single figures. Betting markets have installed Hawthorn as 10.5- to 11.5-point favourites. Previous modelling has repeatedly identified value on the Hawks covering similar lines, particularly in the first half. The total has also trended under in several of Hawthorn’s recent lower-scoring affairs, aligning with the current 175.5 line. Hawthorn should prevail. Expect the Hawks to win by a margin of 12 to 22 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Hawthorn Hawks face Western Bulldogs with the approved plays projecting clear control. Hawthorn -12.5 in the second term at 72% true probability and 4% edge anchors the shape, indicating the Hawks pull away after quarter time. The -5.5 first term line at 65% true and 3% edge reinforces early dominance. Over 42.5 total in the first half at 50% true probability supports a faster opening despite zero edge. Marcus Bontempelli over 26.5 disposals at 58% true probability and 4% edge keeps the Bulldogs' key midfielder active yet contained within Hawthorn's structure. Together the lines point to the Hawks setting the tempo from the first term onward.
All Markets — 4 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 4.5u , Player Props: 2.5u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -12.5
Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full Spreads PlayUp -12.5 1.90 72.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u L
Over Marcus Bontempelli 26.5 DISPOSALS
Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Disposals Over Neds 26.5 1.87 58.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u L
Hawthorn Hawks -5.5
Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks
 1H Spreads Neds -5.5 1.90 65.0% 3.0% T1 1u W
Over 42.5
Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks
 1Q O/U Neds 42.5 1.85 50.0% 0.0% T1 1u L
Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -12.5
Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full Spreads PlayUp -12.5 1.90 72.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u L
H1 Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -5.5
Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks
 1H Spreads Neds -5.5 1.90 65.0% 3.0% T1 1u W
Q1 Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 42.5
Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks
 1Q O/U Neds 42.5 1.85 50.0% 0.0% T1 1u L
Player Props — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 0u , Player Props: 2.5u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over Marcus Bontempelli 26.5 DISPOSALS
Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Disposals Over Neds 26.5 1.87 58.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u L
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
Western Bulldogs BUL Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
SCORING / TOTALS Western Bulldogs Hawthorn Hawks Total
SCORING SHOTS Western Bulldogs Hawthorn Hawks Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Hawthorn Hawks — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The final score was 71 to 77, a six-point loss. The side finished with 9 goals and 17 behinds while the opposition posted 12 goals and 5 behinds. A dominant second quarter gave them a strong buffer at half time, yet they were unable to maintain the momentum. Mabior Chol and Nick Watson each booted three goals in a solid individual effort.

Season Story So Far

Results have been up and down across the past month. A hard-fought draw was followed by two tough losses on the road, before back-to-back wins lifted spirits. The latest narrow defeat showed plenty of fight but highlighted areas that still need tightening.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The side sits in the middle of the pack with a balanced points tally and percentage hovering around the 100 mark. Points for and against reflect a competitive unit that can score freely but has conceded heavily in a couple of recent outings.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 8: Draw with Collingwood Magpies 93-93
  • Round 9: Loss to Fremantle Dockers 73-88
  • Round 10: Loss to Melbourne Demons 81-120
  • Round 11: Win vs Adelaide Crows 75-66
  • Round 12: Win vs St Kilda Saints 119-67

Two wins, two losses and a draw in that stretch show a side capable of beating quality opposition when the ball movement clicks.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread in three of the last five outings and stayed under the total in two high-scoring affairs. Home games have tended to produce tighter margins while away results have been more unpredictable on the scoreboard.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward entries have been strong, with multiple players hitting the scoreboard regularly. Tackle pressure has lifted in recent weeks and the backline has shown better organisation when the ball is turned over. Inside-50 numbers remain a positive despite some games where efficiency dropped.

Player Highlights

  • Jack Gunston: Booted six goals in one outing and remains a constant threat with strong marking.
  • Nick Watson: Consistent goal kicker across multiple games, adding three goals in each of the last two matches.
  • Blake Hardwick: Four goals and strong contested work in the win against the visitors.
  • James Sicily: Continues to lead the defence with high disposal counts and calm ball use.
  • Mitch Lewis: Reliable target up forward, contributing goals and contested marks week after week.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed the spread on the home side in the most recent outing but missed the total by a couple of points. A clean win on the line was the highlight, keeping the run of positive edges alive.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no confirmed fixture listed, attention turns to maintaining the improved ball movement and tackling intensity shown in the past fortnight. Focus remains on converting more inside-50s and keeping the opposition score under control at home.

HAW Hawthorn Hawks vs St Kilda Saints STK
May 28 7:30pm ·Marvel Stadium ·Round 12
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1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Hawthorn Hawks travel to Marvel Stadium to face St Kilda Saints in a pivotal Round 12 contest that could shape both teams’ mid-season trajectories. With the visitors holding a narrow edge in recent scoring efficiency, the match offers a clear test of momentum versus home resilience. Hawthorn enter the clash with mixed but revealing recent results. A draw was followed by consecutive losses before consecutive victories, including a 52-point triumph in their most recent outing. Their scoring has stabilised around 98 points per game while conceding 85, reflecting improved defensive structure and the ability to capitalise on opposition errors. St Kilda, by contrast, have alternated wins and losses, posting 90 points for and 88 against on average. Their two victories came by 36 and 39 points, yet three defeats by 29, 30 and 52 points highlight vulnerability when pressured early. Statistically, Hawthorn hold the clearer advantage. Their average winning margin across victories sits near 30 points, while losses have been by an average of 27. St Kilda’s winning margins average 37 points, but their defeats have been by similar margins, suggesting matches can swing dramatically. The total points trend hovers around 183 for both sides, aligning closely with current totals markets near 179.5–180.5. Key midfield battles will likely determine tempo. Hawthorn’s capacity to control contested possession and transition quickly has underpinned their stronger offensive average, while St Kilda rely on sustained forward pressure to offset occasional lapses in structure. Betting markets have installed Hawthorn as favourites at spreads of -9.5 to -10.5. Historical margins indicate the visitors have covered similar lines in three of their last five games, supporting the lean toward Hawthorn -9.5 at the prevailing price. Totals markets appear fairly priced given both teams’ recent scoring consistency. Hawthorn should prevail by 15 to 25 points, using superior average output and recent margin trends to control the contest at Marvel Stadium.

✏️ Game Analysis

The Hawthorn Hawks head to St Kilda Saints under a blowout projection that aligns tightly with the underdog spread and corresponding team total under. This framework supports the Under 179.5 total as the primary angle. At odds of 1.9, the play shows a True 45% hit rate alongside a -2% edge, yet the overall game shape stays locked on limited scoring output. St Kilda and Hawthorn are set to produce a contest where opportunities remain scarce, preventing any surge past the total line. The consistency between spread, team total, and game total calls strengthens the case for staying under throughout all quarters.
All Markets — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 179.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs St Kilda Saints
 Full O/U TAB 179.5 1.90 45.0% -2.0% T1 1u L
Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 179.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs St Kilda Saints
 Full O/U TAB 179.5 1.90 45.0% -2.0% T1 1u L
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Marvel Stadium
MATCHCAST
-
  Marvel Stadium
MATCHCAST
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1 2 3 4 T
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
St Kilda Saints STK St Kilda Saints
SCORING / TOTALS Hawthorn Hawks St Kilda Saints Total
SCORING SHOTS Hawthorn Hawks St Kilda Saints Total
AFL GET FREE ACCESS
POST GAME STORYLINE

Hawthorn Hawks — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The side claimed a commanding 52-point victory, finishing with 18 goals and 11 behinds for 119 points against the visitors' 9 goals and 13 behinds for 67. They dominated after half time, adding 10 goals to the opposition's 10 in a strong second half display. Jack Gunston led the way with a bag of 5 goals, while the opposition’s best performer kicked 3.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a strong finish to the first half of the year. After a couple of tight losses on the road, the group has found consistency at home and delivered a statement win that keeps momentum building nicely.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The numbers show a side sitting in a solid mid-table position with a healthy points differential. Strong scoring output and improved defensive structure have lifted percentage into a competitive range, giving them a platform to push higher.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 8: Drew with Collingwood Magpies 93-93
  • Round 9: Lost to Fremantle Dockers 73-88
  • Round 10: Lost to Melbourne Demons 81-120
  • Round 11: Defeated Adelaide Crows 75-66
  • Round 12: Defeated St Kilda Saints 119-67

Three wins and a draw from the last five shows clear upward trajectory.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread in three of the last five outings and gone over the total in four. Home games in particular have produced strong scoring, with the attack firing consistently above the line when playing in front of their own fans.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward pressure has been a real strength, with high inside-50 counts and strong contested possession numbers. The defensive unit has tightened up noticeably, restricting opposition entries and forcing turnovers through the midfield. Work rate from the half-back line has been a standout feature in recent weeks.

Player Highlights

  • Jack Gunston: 5 goals and 10 disposals in the latest win, continuing his strong form up forward.
  • Blake Hardwick: 4 goals from 17 disposals, providing a damaging presence through the middle.
  • Nick Watson: 2 goals and 12 disposals, using his speed to create opportunities.
  • James Sicily: 23 disposals and strong rebounding from defence in the most recent outing.
  • Connor Macdonald: 28 disposals and 3 goals in the previous game, showing his growing influence.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed nicely on the full spread and team total over for the latest match, with the recommended units delivering a solid return. The totals play also came through comfortably, so overall a clean week that the model can build on.

Outlook / What to Watch

Against the Western Bulldogs at the MCG, expect a high-tempo contest where Hawthorn will look to use their home-ground advantage and strong forward entries. The Bulldogs’ pace on the wings will test the Hawks’ transition defence, but if the midfield can win enough of the ball, the scoring should flow freely. Look for the total to push toward the high 170s and the Hawks to be well supported on the spread.

ADE Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks HAW
May 21 7:30pm ·UTAS Stadium ·Round 11
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5 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Adelaide Crows travel to UTAS Stadium to face Hawthorn Hawks in Round 11, a contest that pits two sides with contrasting recent trajectories against each other. Hawthorn’s home record and scoring depth make this a pivotal matchup for both clubs’ mid-season momentum. Adelaide enter with a 3-2 record across their past five outings, producing 75, 76, 98, 133 and 66 points. Their attack has averaged 89.27 points per game while conceding 82.73, yet the heavy 52-point loss and narrow nine-point defeat highlight inconsistency on the road. Hawthorn, meanwhile, sit at 2-2-1 in their last five, scoring 93, 73, 81, 75 and 119. Their season-long averages of 98.08 points scored and 85.42 conceded reflect a more potent offence, particularly when playing at home. Margin trends reinforce the contrast. Adelaide’s three wins have come by an average of 35 points, but their two losses average 30.5 points. Hawthorn’s victories have been by nine and 52 points, while their defeats average 27 points. These figures suggest both teams can dominate when conditions suit, yet the venue and travel factor tilt the ledger. Current betting lines list Hawthorn as 4.5- to 5.5-point favourites. Historical edges from similar contests indicate strong value on first-half and full-game spreads for the home side when totals sit around 158-159.5. The over has also appeared frequently in high-edge projections, aligning with both teams’ combined scoring averages near 172-183. Hawthorn’s ability to control tempo at UTAS Stadium, combined with Adelaide’s recent road vulnerabilities, points to a tight but decisive home victory. Expect Hawthorn Hawks to prevail by 6-14 points in a game that finishes around 162 total points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Adelaide Crows face Hawthorn Hawks with the projection centred on a clear home advantage. Hawthorn Hawks -11.5 at 72% True% and 3.2% Edge signals an expected margin that comfortably covers the spread. The Over 158.5 total at 51% True% and 1.1% Edge supports an open contest where points accumulate steadily. Hawthorn over 84.5 at 53% True% and 2.1% Edge reinforces their role as the dominant scorers. First-quarter Over 40.5 at 50% True% and 0.8% Edge points to early momentum that sets the tone. Nick Watson over 1.5 goals at 58% True% and 3.5% Edge adds a sharp individual edge that aligns with the same projected game shape.
All Markets — 5 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 5.5u , Player Props: 2.5u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -11.5
Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full Spreads SportsBet -11.5 1.89 72.0% 3.2% T2 2.5u L
Over Nick Watson 1.5 GOALS
Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Goals Scored Over SportsBet 1.5 1.21 58.0% 3.5% T2 2.5u W
Over Hawthorn Hawks 84.5
Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 84.5 1.86 53.0% 2.1% T1 1u L
Over 158.5
Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full O/U SportsBet 158.5 1.89 51.0% 1.1% T1 1u L
Over 40.5
Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks
 1Q O/U SportsBet 40.5 1.91 50.0% 0.8% T1 1u L
Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -11.5
Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full Spreads SportsBet -11.5 1.89 72.0% 3.2% T2 2.5u L
Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 158.5
Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full O/U SportsBet 158.5 1.89 51.0% 1.1% T1 1u L
Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over Hawthorn Hawks 84.5
Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 84.5 1.86 53.0% 2.1% T1 1u L
Q1 Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 40.5
Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks
 1Q O/U SportsBet 40.5 1.91 50.0% 0.8% T1 1u L
Player Props — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 0u , Player Props: 2.5u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over Nick Watson 1.5 GOALS
Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks
 Goals Scored Over SportsBet 1.5 1.21 58.0% 3.5% T2 2.5u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  UTAS Stadium
MATCHCAST
-
  UTAS Stadium
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
Adelaide Crows ADE Adelaide Crows
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
SCORING / TOTALS Adelaide Crows Hawthorn Hawks Total
SCORING SHOTS Adelaide Crows Hawthorn Hawks Total
AFL GET FREE ACCESS
POST GAME STORYLINE

Hawthorn Hawks — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Hawks finished with 10 goals and 15 behinds for 75 points to defeat the visitors 9 goals and 12 behinds for 66 points in a hard-fought contest. They trailed at quarter time but took control after half time with strong midfield pressure and accurate finishing. Nick Watson and Blake Hardwick led the goal scoring with multiple majors, while the opposition’s best performer was their half-forward who kicked two goals and provided plenty of drive.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a strong run of form where the side has shown real resilience. After a mixed start to the year they have found consistency through better ball movement and defensive structure, turning close games into wins and building momentum heading into the middle of the season.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The Hawks sit comfortably in the top half of the ladder with a healthy points tally and strong percentage. Their points for and against reflect a balanced attack and a defence that has tightened considerably in recent weeks, giving them a solid platform for the run home.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 7: Win vs Gold Coast Suns
  • Round 8: Draw vs Collingwood Magpies
  • Round 9: Loss vs Fremantle Dockers
  • Round 10: Loss vs Melbourne Demons
  • Round 11: Win vs Adelaide Crows

Three wins, one draw and one loss from the last five shows a side that is competitive every week.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Hawks have been reliable on the spread in home games and have covered totals more often than not when playing at familiar venues. Their ability to control tempo has made them a slightly undersold side in several recent matchups.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward entries have been cleaner and the small forwards are converting at a higher rate. Defensively the backline has been disciplined, cutting off opposition chains and forcing turnovers through the corridor. Tackle pressure and contested possessions remain areas of strength.

Player Highlights

  • Nick Watson: Consistent goal threat with multiple bags across recent weeks and strong inside-50 work.
  • Jack Gunston: Delivering big numbers in disposals and score involvements while hitting the scoreboard regularly.
  • Mitch Lewis: Strong marking presence and reliable tall forward option who provides a target inside 50.
  • James Sicily: Continues to lead the defence with high disposal counts and excellent decision making under pressure.
  • Blake Hardwick: Standout performer in the latest outing with four goals and strong contested ball work.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed a couple of solid hits on the Hawks’ recent games, particularly around their first-half spread control. A couple of totals went against the grain but the overall return was positive and the process remains sound.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Hawks travel to Marvel Stadium to face St Kilda Saints in what should be a high-tempo contest. Expect the visitors to use their strong midfield to control clearances and look for quick transitions forward. St Kilda will likely try to slow the game through the middle, so Hawthorn’s ability to win the contested ball and create from stoppages will be key. The total looks likely to sit around the mid-160s given both sides’ recent scoring patterns, while the spread should favour the Hawks if they can maintain their defensive structure early.