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Melbourne Demons 2026 Season Stats, Form & Betting Analysis

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Melbourne Demons

BETTING STATS

TABLE 5th - 60 PTS

RESULT (W-L-D) - 22 15 - 7 - 0

POINTS 2214 FOR 1991 AGT

SCORING SHOTS -

POWER RANK -

FORM > LATEST

Season Story

Melbourne sit atop the league’s ATS ladder at 15-6, a mark built on seven covers as underdogs and six as favourites. Their 12-9 overs record reflects a slight lean toward the over, though the margin has been narrow. The Demons have covered in eight of their last ten games, including a four-game ATS win streak that was only interrupted once in that window. Last five results show four covers and four overs, underlining consistent value on both sides of the market. Recent form highlights a hot streak ATS while totals have trended over. The side opened slowly in several road contests but has finished strongly in the second half across multiple outings, often adding enough late to push games over the total. Home results have been more controlled, while away games have produced larger swings that have favoured the spread. Standout moments include a 55.5-point cover against Hawthorn in round 10 and a 54-point demolition of Richmond. Those blowouts sit alongside narrower covers that have kept the record elite. The only cold spell came in rounds 2, 5, 9 and 11 when heavy losses or unders wiped out earlier momentum. Right now the Demons offer clearest value as road underdogs or in games expected to stay under the total, given their ability to grind out covers even when outscored early. With the season still live, bettors should monitor second-half output and how the line moves when they are installed as underdogs. Melbourne head to Adelaide Oval in round 23 to face Port Adelaide. Fresh off an eight-of-ten ATS run and four overs in five, the Demons carry positive momentum into the matchup despite the travel.

SELECT A SEASON

ROUND	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
PLAYED	St Kilda Saints	Fremantle Dockers	Carlton Blues	Gold Coast Suns	Essendon Bombers	Brisbane Lions	Richmond Tigers	Sydney Swans	West Coast Eagles	Hawthorn Hawks	Western Bulldogs	Greater Western Sydney Giants	Collingwood Magpies	Essendon Bombers	Adelaide Crows	BYE	Hawthorn Hawks	Richmond Tigers	North Melbourne Kangaroos	Geelong Cats	Gold Coast Suns	Fremantle Dockers	Port Adelaide Power	Western Bulldogs
RESULT	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	L	L	W	W	L	BYE	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	-
HM / AW	HM	AW	AW	HM	AW	HM	AW	AW	HM	HM	AW	HM	AW	HM	AW	BYE	AW	HM	AW	HM	AW	HM	AW	HM
PTS FOR	120	70	100	109	68	104	126	114	99	120	90	70	83	95	62	BYE	125	111	92	97	114	113	132	0
PTS AGT	107	118	77	89	113	102	72	131	67	81	93	119	75	50	79	BYE	90	65	76	117	105	109	56	0
TOTAL	227	188	177	198	181	206	198	245	166	201	183	189	158	145	141	BYE	215	176	168	214	219	222	188	0
AVG FOR	120	95	97	100	93	95	100	101	101	103	102	99	98	98	95	BYE	97	98	98	98	98	99	101	0
AVG AGT	107	113	101	98	101	101	97	101	97	96	95	97	96	92	92	BYE	91	90	89	91	91	92	91	0
AVG TOTAL	227	208	198	198	194	196	197	202	198	199	197	196	194	190	187	BYE	188	188	187	189	189	191	192	0

POINTS

FOR ROUND AGT

93.4 1 - 5 100.8

112.6 6 - 10 90.6

80 11 - 15 83.2

106.25 16 - 20 87

119.67 21 - 24 90

100.64 SEA 90.5

110 L5 93

TOTALS

ROUND TOTAL

1 - 5 194

6 - 10 203

11 - 15 163

16 - 20 193

21 - 24 210

SEA 191.14

L5 203

SCORING

COMING SOON

Match by Match

MEL

POR

Aug 15 8:10pm ·Adelaide Oval ·Round 23

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🧠 Match Preview

Melbourne Demons head to Adelaide Oval in Round 23 with a chance to strengthen their finals push against a Port Adelaide Power side that has endured a difficult run of form. The Demons enter as clear favourites and will look to exploit their superior scoring depth on the road. Melbourne have won four of their last five matches, showing strong attacking output and defensive resilience. Their recent results include comfortable victories by 46, 16 and 9 points, though they suffered a 20-point loss in one outing. Across those five games they have averaged 105.4 points scored and 94.4 conceded, reflecting consistent control in most contests. Port Adelaide, by contrast, have lost their past five matches by an average margin of 42 points, with heavy defeats of 59 and 97 points highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Statistically the gap is pronounced. Melbourne average 99.1 points for and 92.1 against across the season, while Port Adelaide sit at 78.2 for and 86.7 against. The Demons have also produced higher-scoring games in their recent form, with three of their last five totals exceeding 210 points. Port’s matches have trended lower, averaging just 165 points combined in their past five outings. Key matchups will centre on Melbourne’s ability to move the ball forward efficiently against a Port defence that has struggled to contain opposition entries. The visitors’ capacity to kick multiple goals in bursts has been a feature of their wins, while Port have been limited to under 80 points in four of their last five games. Betting markets have installed Melbourne as 25.5 to 27.5-point favourites, a line that aligns closely with recent margins. The Demons have covered similar spreads in three of their past four wins, suggesting value on the minus line. The total sits around 181.5–182.5; given Melbourne’s attacking average and Port’s defensive concessions, the over appears the more likely outcome. Melbourne Demons are expected to win by 22 to 32 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Melbourne Demons face Port Adelaide Power at Adelaide Oval with form and venue norms pointing to a blowout. Melbourne's WWLWW record and 107.6% stand against Port Adelaide's LLLLL skid and 90.23%, setting up one-sided scoring. This shape directly supports the approved Melbourne Demons T4 7.5u play. At True 82% and a 7% edge, the selection projects the Demons to clear the team total line with room to spare. The bet reinforces expectations that Melbourne will control territory and output while Port Adelaide offers minimal resistance. The line and probability align on the same outcome, locking in value through sustained dominance rather than a tight contest.

⚡Quarter Time Report

⚡Halftime Report

Melbourne Demons hold a commanding 57-20 lead at halftime after an explosive opening half at Adelaide Oval. The visitors kicked nine goals to Port Adelaide’s three, with multiple bursts of scoring in both quarters highlighting their superior forward efficiency and ball movement. Port have managed just two behinds in the second term and remain well below their season scoring average. Momentum sits firmly with Melbourne, who have controlled contested possessions and limited Port’s ability to transition quickly. The 37-point margin already exceeds the full-game spread line of -26.5, placing the Demons in a strong position to cover. The total game score of 77 sits well under the 180.5-181.5 line, suggesting a slower second half is likely. From a betting perspective, Melbourne’s second-half spread around -12.5 to -13.5 looks attractive given their current form and Port’s defensive frailties. Team totals also lean toward the Demons exceeding 103.5 for the match. Port’s inability to generate scoring opportunities reduces the likelihood of a significant comeback. Key takeaway: Melbourne are well placed to extend their advantage, with the spread and Melbourne team total offering the clearest value heading into the second half.

Probabilities

78-85

FULL GAME SPREAD

Very Strong lean to Melbourne Demons -26.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

58-65

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Under 181.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

72-79

2ND HALF SPREAD

Strong lean to Melbourne Demons -12.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

55-62

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Under 90.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Over

Strong lean to Melbourne Demons Over 103.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Port Adelaide Power

Under

Lean to Port Adelaide Power Under 76.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Melbourne Demons hold a commanding 95-42 lead over Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval. The Demons have dominated since half-time, adding 38 points to Port’s 22 while restricting the Power to just six goals for the match. Melbourne’s forward line has been clinical, with Bayley Fritsch and multiple goal kickers combining for efficient entries. Port Adelaide’s defence has again looked porous, conceding heavily after a poor opening half. The 53-point margin already exceeds the 25.5–27.5 pre-game spread, though the final margin remains fluid. Scoring has been steady rather than explosive, with the total sitting at 137 against the 181.5 line. Melbourne’s 95 points already sit close to several full-game team total lines, placing the Demons in a strong position to exceed those marks with a quarter remaining. Port’s low output makes their team total lines look increasingly difficult to reach. Momentum sits firmly with Melbourne, who have controlled territory and inside-50 entries throughout the second half.

Probabilities

78-85

FULL GAME SPREAD

Very Strong lean to Melbourne Demons -26.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

62-70

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Over 181.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

72-79

2ND HALF SPREAD

Strong lean to Melbourne Demons -12.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

58-66

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Over 90.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Over

Extremely Strong lean to Melbourne Demons Over 103.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Port Adelaide Power

Under

Very Strong lean to Port Adelaide Power Under 76.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Melbourne Demons Melbourne Demons vs Port Adelaide Power	Head to Head	SportsBet	—	1.25	82.0%	7.0%	T4	7.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Melbourne Demons Melbourne Demons vs Port Adelaide Power	Head to Head	SportsBet	—	1.25	82.0%	7.0%	T4	7.5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Adelaide Oval MATCHCAST -
Adelaide Oval MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
MEL Melbourne Demons
POR Port Adelaide Power

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Melbourne Demons — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Demons finished with 20 goals and 12 behinds for 132 points to the opposition's 8 goals and 8 behinds for 56, prevailing by 76 points at Adelaide Oval. They led at every change, exploding to a 44-8 first-quarter advantage before adding 57, 38 and 37 points across the remaining terms. Bayley Fritsch and Kade Chandler each kicked four goals, while the opposition's best performer was Mitchell Georgiades with four goals.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a strong finish to the home-and-away rounds, with the side showing improved attacking potency and consistency after a mid-season loss. Multiple high-scoring wins have lifted overall momentum heading into the final stages of the year.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The team holds a solid mid-to-upper ladder position with a healthy points tally and percentage above 100, reflecting strong scoring output and improved defensive structure across recent outings.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 22: Defeated Fremantle Dockers
Round 21: Defeated Gold Coast Suns
Round 20: Lost to Geelong Cats
Round 19: Defeated North Melbourne Kangaroos
Round 18: Defeated Richmond Tigers

Four wins from the last five have restored confidence after the single setback.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Demons have performed well on the total in high-scoring victories, regularly exceeding projected lines when the forward entries click. Spread results have been mixed but trend positive in home games where they control territory.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward pressure and inside-50 efficiency have been standout features, with multiple players contributing goals and score involvements. Ruck work and contested possessions remain strong, while the backline has tightened to limit opposition opportunities in the second halves of recent wins.

Player Highlights

Bayley Fritsch: 4 goals and 11 score involvements in the latest win.
Kade Chandler: 4 goals, 9 tackles and strong forward pressure.
Max Gawn: 25 disposals, 22 hitouts and 9 clearances.
Harrison Petty: Consistent goal threat with 3 goals across recent matches.
Jacob van Rooyen: Multiple bags of 3-plus goals in the run home.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No Match Bombcard selections were available this round, so the card sits idle. The side's dominant performance still delivered plenty of positive indicators for future cards.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Melbourne Demons will look to carry their attacking momentum into the next contest, focusing on early forward entries and ruck dominance to set the tone at the venue.

FRE

MEL

Aug 8 1:15pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 22

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🧠 Match Preview

Fremantle Dockers head to the Melbourne Cricket Ground for round 22 with genuine finals momentum, while Melbourne Demons will be desperate to secure a home victory and keep their season alive. The Dockers arrive in strong form after four wins from their past five outings, showcasing a disciplined defensive structure that has kept opposition scores low. Fremantle’s recent results highlight both consistency and firepower. After a narrow 21-point loss, they responded with victories by 38, 28, 70 and 37 points. That run has produced an average winning margin of more than 43 points in their last four games. Their season-long averages of 99.15 points scored and just 67.30 conceded underline a side that controls games through pressure and efficiency. Melbourne have also won four of five but their margins tell a different story. Wins by 35, 46, 16 and nine points sit alongside a 20-point defeat, giving them an average winning margin of roughly 26.5 points. Their averages of 98.45 points scored and 91.30 conceded reflect a more open style that leaves them vulnerable when opponents find rhythm. The statistical gap is clearest in defence. Fremantle’s ability to restrict opponents below 70 points per game on average should prove decisive at the MCG, where space can be limited. Melbourne will need to generate more from turnover and transition to match that intensity. Bookmakers have installed Fremantle as 13.5-point favourites. Given the Dockers’ recent margins and defensive record, that line looks reachable. The total sits at 174.5; both teams’ season averages suggest a score in the mid-170s is realistic, though Fremantle’s defensive edge could push the game under if they control tempo. Fremantle Dockers are the sharper side right now. Expect them to win by 15 to 25 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

The Fremantle Dockers visit the Melbourne Demons with Fremantle's 18-2 record and 147.33% pointing to a controlled performance. The approved play on Melbourne Demons over 81.5 at true 52% and 1.3% edge supports a competitive shape at the MCG. Melbourne's WLWWW form and home edge ensure they push the total beyond 81.5 despite Fremantle's dominance. This team total reinforces the projection of Fremantle maintaining overall control while allowing the Demons enough scoring to hit the line. The bet highlights a game where the margin stays manageable and Melbourne contributes points steadily, aligning with the expected outcome under the given conditions.

⚡Quarter Time Report

After a frantic opening term at the MCG, Melbourne and Fremantle are locked at 32-32 following an unusually high-scoring first quarter. Ten goals were kicked in the opening 27 minutes, with Fremantle striking first through Patrick Voss before Melbourne responded with a four-goal burst to lead by 11 points. The Dockers then hit back with three quick majors of their own to snatch the advantage, only for the Demons to level the scores late. Both sides have already surpassed typical first-quarter totals, pointing to an open, transition-heavy contest. Fremantle’s defensive reputation has yet to materialise, while Melbourne’s usual inaccuracy in front of goal has been absent. From a betting perspective the 64-point quarter has immediately altered the landscape for the total. With three quarters remaining, the Over 179.5 line now sits in a strong position. The margin markets remain fluid given the even scoreline, though Fremantle’s pre-game favouritism has been neutralised early. Expect both teams to tighten defensively in the second term, but the early tempo suggests the game will remain high-scoring overall.

Probabilities

48-52

FULL GAME SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons +9.5 covering at 1.92 (SportsBet)

62-68

FULL GAME TOTAL

Strong lean to Over 179.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

49-53

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons +4.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

53-58

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Over 89.5 at 1.88 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Fremantle Dockers

Over

Lean to Over 93.5 at 1.88 (TABtouch)

Melbourne Demons

Over

Lean to Over 83.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Fremantle Dockers lead Melbourne Demons 68-65 after a high-tempo opening half at the MCG. Fremantle kicked 11 goals to Melbourne’s 10, with Patrick Voss (4 goals) and Jye Amiss (3) providing the edge up forward. Melbourne responded through Bailey Laurie (3) and Kysaiah Pickett, but their defensive pressure has been less consistent. The first half produced 133 points, well above the projected pace. Fremantle’s structure has restricted Melbourne’s transition, while the Dockers have converted forward entries efficiently. From a betting perspective the total market has already moved strongly toward the over, with both teams on track for season-average outputs. The narrow three-point margin leaves the full-game spread (Fremantle -9.5 to -11.5) still very much alive, though momentum slightly favours the visitors maintaining control. Melbourne will need sharper ball movement and better stoppage work in the second half to stay in the contest. Expect Fremantle to dictate tempo and territory, but the high-scoring nature of the first half suggests the total line will remain the clearest angle for the remainder of the game.

Probabilities

56-62

FULL GAME SPREAD

Lean to Fremantle Dockers -9.5 covering at 1.95 (Bet Right)

68-74

FULL GAME TOTAL

Strong lean to Over 179.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

54-60

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Fremantle Dockers -4.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

55-61

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Over 88.5 at 1.88 (TABtouch)

Team Totals

Fremantle Dockers

Over

Lean to Over 93.5 at 1.88 (TABtouch)

Melbourne Demons

Over

Lean to Over 83.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Fremantle Dockers lead Melbourne Demons 88-80 after a high-scoring, end-to-end third term. The Dockers have controlled the contest for long periods, particularly through their forward pressure and ability to convert from turnover. Fremantle’s 14 goals to Melbourne’s 12 reflects their efficiency inside 50, while Melbourne’s eight behinds highlight missed opportunities that have kept the margin within striking distance. Momentum sits with the visitors, who have won the last two quarters and restricted Melbourne’s ability to generate repeat entries. The total score of 168 sits below the 179.5 line, yet both sides have shown scoring intent that suggests the final term will add further points. From a betting perspective, Fremantle’s defensive structure and recent form make them the sharper side heading into the last change. Melbourne must lift their conversion rate and win the contested ball battle to stay in the contest, but Fremantle’s ability to slow the game and capitalise on transition remains the decisive factor. Expect the Dockers to extend their advantage in the final term.

Probabilities

62-72%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Lean to Fremantle Dockers -9.5 covering at 1.95 (Bet Right)

48-58%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Under 179.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

60-70%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Fremantle Dockers -9.5 covering at 1.95 (Bet Right)

47-57%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Under 179.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Fremantle Dockers

Over

Strong lean to Over 93.5 at 2.12 (TABtouch)

Melbourne Demons

Over

Lean to Over 83.5 at 2.11 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 81.5 (Melbourne Demons) Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	81.5	1.87	52.0%	1.3%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 81.5 (Melbourne Demons) Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	81.5	1.87	52.0%	1.3%	T2	2.5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -
Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
FRE Fremantle Dockers
MEL Melbourne Demons

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Melbourne Demons — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Demons secured a hard-fought 4-point victory, finishing with 17 goals and 11 behinds for 113 points against the visitors' 17 goals and 7 behinds for 109. They led at three-quarter time but had to withstand a late surge to hold on. Jacob van Rooyen and Harrison Petty led the goal-scoring with strong contributions up forward, while the opposition’s best performer booted 5 goals.

Season Story So Far

After a dominant win in the latest outing, the Demons have shown real consistency across the middle of the year. Multiple high-scoring performances and strong second halves have kept them competitive, with the group building momentum through a mix of big individual hauls and solid team defence.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The Demons sit in a solid mid-to-upper ladder position with strong points and percentage built on consistent scoring and controlled opposition totals. Their points for and against reflect a side that creates plenty of opportunities while limiting damage in key moments.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 17: Win 125-90 vs Hawthorn Hawks
Round 18: Win 111-65 vs Richmond Tigers
Round 19: Win 92-76 vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
Round 20: Loss 97-117 vs Geelong Cats
Round 21: Win 114-105 vs Gold Coast Suns

Four wins from the last five shows a side capable of bouncing back quickly after a setback.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Demons have covered the spread in most recent outings when playing with confidence at home or on the road. Totals have leaned over in high-scoring affairs, though tighter defensive efforts in the last couple of weeks have kept games closer to the line.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward pressure has been a standout, with multiple players hitting the scoreboard in bunches and strong inside-50 work creating repeat chances. Max Gawn continues to dominate hitouts and clearances, while the backline has tightened up to reduce opposition scoring opportunities late in games.

Player Highlights

Jacob van Rooyen: Multiple 5-goal hauls across recent weeks, strong contested marking and inside-50 presence.
Max Gawn: Consistent 30+ hitouts and double-digit clearances, setting the foundation in the ruck.
Harrison Petty: Versatile scoring threat with bags of 3-4 goals and solid defensive work when needed.
Bayley Fritsch: Sharp finishing with 5-goal games and clever positioning inside 50.
Jake Melksham: Reliable goal contributions and strong score involvements from the forward line.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed a couple of strong wins on the big bags from key forwards but missed the totals line in a tighter contest. Owning the spread miss from last week — we’ll sharpen up on the defensive metrics next time.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Demons will look to maintain their strong recent form and build on the momentum from the latest win. Expect a focus on early forward pressure and controlled ball movement to set the tone at the venue.

MEL

GCS

Aug 2 3:15pm ·People First Stadium ·Round 21

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🧠 Match Preview

Melbourne Demons head to People First Stadium in Round 21 with a clear edge in form and scoring efficiency against a Gold Coast Suns side struggling to find consistency. The visitors enter the contest off a mixed but generally competitive run, while the hosts have endured a tough stretch marked by defensive lapses and low scoring outputs. Melbourne’s recent performances show a team capable of both explosive wins and occasional lapses. Across their last five outings they have secured three victories, posting scores of 125, 111 and 92 while holding opponents to 90, 65 and 76 respectively. Their two defeats came by 17 and 20 points, yet their season-long averages of 97.63 points scored and 90.58 conceded reflect a side that generally controls games through the midfield. Gold Coast, by contrast, have lost their past five matches, managing just 29, 98, 49, 68 and 97 points in those games while conceding 80, 104, 128, 77 and 110. Their averages sit at 87.95 for and 92.74 against, highlighting an attack that has been repeatedly contained. Statistically the Demons hold the advantage in both attack and defence. Their higher average total (roughly 188 points per game) suggests they are more likely to push the scoreboard, whereas Gold Coast’s lower output points to ongoing issues converting opportunities. Margin trends reinforce this: Melbourne’s wins have come by an average of 32 points, while Gold Coast’s defeats have often been by double digits, including several heavy losses. Key areas to watch include Melbourne’s ability to win contested ball and transition quickly, areas where the Suns have been vulnerable. Gold Coast will need to improve their forward efficiency and reduce turnovers if they are to stay competitive at home. Betting markets have installed Melbourne as modest favourites, with spreads listed around -4.5 to -5.5. Given the Demons’ recent margins and superior averages, they look well placed to cover. The total line sits near 180.5-181.5; with both sides trending toward moderate scoring games, the under appears the sharper play. Expect Melbourne to prevail by 12 to 22 points in a controlled performance that exploits Gold Coast’s recent defensive frailties.

✏️ Game Analysis

Melbourne Demons face Gold Coast Suns at the Suns home ground. Melbourne's superior recent form positions them as favourites, yet the approved play targets the Over 86.5 on Gold Coast Suns team total. This bet at odds 1.88 with a True% of 38 and Edge of -4% projects a game shape where Gold Coast contributes substantially to the scoring. The team total line reinforces expectations of the Suns pushing the total upward, aligning with a contest that sees both sides engaged offensively. Melbourne's percentage advantage suggests control, but the Suns' output is projected to exceed the 86.5 benchmark. This call highlights the projected balance where Gold Coast avoids a low-scoring shutdown.

⚡Quarter Time Report

After a high-tempo opening term at People First Stadium, Melbourne Demons lead Gold Coast Suns 30-27. The Demons kicked five goals straight, with Jacob van Rooyen, Harry Sharp, Kysaiah Pickett, Joel Fitzgerald and Bayley Fritsch all finding the big sticks. Gold Coast replied with four majors from Ben King, Jed Walter (two) and Ben Long, plus three behinds. The visitors’ efficiency inside 50 was the difference, converting every shot while the Suns wasted opportunities. Melbourne’s contested ball work and quick transitions set the tone, exploiting Gold Coast’s early turnovers. Betting markets had installed the Demons as 4.5-5.5 point favourites; they have delivered exactly that margin through the opening 30 minutes. The total sat near 184.5-185.5 pre-game, and the 57-point quarter keeps both sides on track for a moderate scoring affair. Gold Coast will need to clean up their forward entries and reduce errors if they are to stay competitive over the remaining three quarters. Melbourne’s ability to control the midfield and transition quickly remains the key advantage heading into the second term.

Probabilities

52-62

FULL GAME SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -5.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

48-58

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Under 184.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

53-63

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -3.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

47-57

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Under 92.5 at 1.85 (TAB)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Under

Lean to Under 94.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Gold Coast Suns

Under

Lean to Under 89.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime, Gold Coast Suns hold a slender 54-50 lead over Melbourne Demons at People First Stadium. Both sides kicked eight goals in the opening two quarters, but the Suns added six behinds to Melbourne’s two, giving them the narrow advantage. The contest has been physical and low-scoring, with neither team able to establish sustained dominance. Gold Coast showed improved forward efficiency in the second term, led by Jed Walter’s three goals, while Melbourne relied on Bayley Fritsch’s two majors and strong midfield rotation. Total scoring sits at 104 points, well below the 185.5 full-game line. Momentum has shifted slightly toward the Suns after they outscored the Demons 32-26 in the second quarter. From a betting perspective, the tight margin keeps full-game spreads live, while the under total remains on track. Melbourne’s superior season averages suggest they will push harder after the break, yet Gold Coast’s home resilience and current lead make a second-half upset possible. Expect a more open third quarter as both teams chase scoreboard momentum.

Probabilities

48-55%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Lean to Gold Coast Suns +5.5 covering at 1.89 (SportsBet)

52-58%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Under 185.5 at 1.90 (Dabble AU)

45-52%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -2.5 covering at 1.92 (Neds)

48-55%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Over 91.5 at 1.90 (Neds)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Over

Lean to Melbourne Demons Over 94.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Gold Coast Suns

Over

Lean to Gold Coast Suns Over 89.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Melbourne Demons hold a one-point lead over Gold Coast Suns, 87-86, after a high-scoring third quarter that produced 69 points. The match has been remarkably even, with both sides trading goals and neither able to establish a meaningful buffer. Melbourne’s efficiency in front of goal has kept them narrowly ahead despite Gold Coast’s strong home push. Scoring momentum has clearly lifted since half-time, when the total stood at just 104. The Demons have edged the midfield battle but the Suns remain dangerous on the break. From a betting perspective the total line of 185.5 looks under threat given the third-quarter surge. Melbourne’s -5.5 spread remains live with a full quarter remaining. Gold Coast sit at 86 against their 89.5 team total while Melbourne are at 87 versus 94.5, leaving both under lines still mathematically possible but under pressure. Expect the final term to remain open and high-scoring as both teams push for a decisive advantage.

Probabilities

52-58

FULL GAME SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -5.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)

62-68

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Over 185.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

50-56

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -2.5 covering at 1.92 (Neds)

60-66

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Over 92.5 at 1.95 (TAB)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

under

Lean to Melbourne Demons Under 94.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Gold Coast Suns

under

Lean to Gold Coast Suns Under 89.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 86.5 (Gold Coast Suns) Melbourne Demons vs Gold Coast Suns	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	86.5	1.88	38.0%	-4.0%	T3	5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 86.5 (Gold Coast Suns) Melbourne Demons vs Gold Coast Suns	Full Team Totals	SportsBet	86.5	1.88	38.0%	-4.0%	T3	5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

People First Stadium MATCHCAST -
People First Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
MEL Melbourne Demons
GCS Gold Coast Suns

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Melbourne Demons — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Demons secured a hard-fought 114-105 victory, prevailing by nine points after finishing with 18 goals and six behinds to the opposition’s 16 goals and nine behinds. The contest remained tight throughout, with the side edging ahead in the final term. Harrison Petty and Jacob van Rooyen each booted three goals for the winners, while the opposition’s best performer finished with three majors of their own.

Season Story So Far

After a mixed run of results, the latest win has helped steady the campaign. Strong attacking output in recent outings has been balanced by periods of defensive vulnerability, leaving the group focused on maintaining consistency across the remaining rounds.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With ladder data still updating, the Demons sit on a competitive points total and percentage that reflects their ability to score heavily while conceding in bursts. Points for and against show a side capable of high-scoring games but one that must tighten up to climb further.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 17: Win 125-90 vs Hawthorn Hawks
Round 18: Win 111-65 vs Richmond Tigers
Round 19: Win 92-76 vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
Round 20: Loss 97-117 vs Geelong Cats
Round 21: Win 114-105 vs Gold Coast Suns

Four wins from the last five have kept momentum alive despite one heavy defeat.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Demons have covered the spread in three of their last five outings, with totals often landing over when the attack clicks. Home and away splits show they perform better when able to control the midfield and limit opposition scoring chances.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward pressure has been a highlight, with multiple players contributing inside-50 entries and contested marks. Ruck work and clearances have provided first-use opportunities, though defensive structures have occasionally been stretched by quick opposition transitions. Standout efforts in disposal efficiency and tackle counts have kept games within reach.

Player Highlights

Jacob van Rooyen: Multiple bags of three or more goals across recent wins, adding strong contested marking and score involvements.
Max Gawn: Dominant hit-out numbers and clearance work, regularly exceeding 30 hit-outs with strong contested possession counts.
Harrison Petty: Consistent goal threat and defensive contributions from the back half, including key marks and tackles.
Ed Langdon: Reliable disposal and inside-50 delivery, helping link play through the midfield.
Jake Melksham: Handy goal contributions and forward pressure in several victories.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The Match Bombcard selections landed solidly on the most recent outing with strong goal and disposal overs hitting, though earlier rounds showed mixed results on spread plays. Honest review shows the card performed well when focusing on key ruck and forward metrics rather than forcing totals.

Outlook / What to Watch

Melbourne Demons will look to build on their recent attacking fluency when they next take the field. Expect a focus on midfield dominance and efficient forward entries to set the tone, with the side likely to push the tempo early. Scoring outlook remains positive if the ruck advantage can be maintained, while defensive adjustments will be key to keeping totals in check.

GEE

MEL

Jul 24 7:40pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 20

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🧠 Match Preview

Geelong Cats travel to the MCG in Round 20 to face Melbourne Demons in a contest that could shape both clubs’ push toward September. With the home side holding a narrow edge in recent results and the visitors searching for consistency, the match offers a clear test of momentum versus resilience. Geelong enter with a 2-3 record across their past five outings. After a commanding 45-point win, they dropped three straight before bouncing back with a 27-point victory. Their scoring has fluctuated between 73 and 105 points, while defensive lapses have allowed between 60 and 123. Melbourne, by contrast, sit at 4-1 in the same window. Four wins have come by margins of 45, 35, 46 and 16 points, interrupted only by a 17-point loss. The Demons have averaged 97 points scored and 89 conceded, showing greater control in both halves of the ground. Statistically the sides are close. Geelong’s season averages sit at 98.1 points for and 84.4 against, while Melbourne post 97.7 for and 89.1 against. Geelong’s two wins produced an average margin of 36 points, yet their three losses averaged a 14.7-point deficit. Melbourne’s four victories have delivered an average winning margin of 35.5 points. These trends suggest the Demons are better equipped to maintain leads once ahead. At the MCG, Melbourne’s structure and contested-ball intensity have historically suited the venue. Geelong will need to improve their conversion and reduce turnovers if they are to trouble the home side’s defence. Key match-ups across the midfield and the ability of both forward lines to capitalise on inside-50 entries will decide who controls the tempo. Betting markets have installed Melbourne as narrow favourites, with spreads hovering between 1.5 and 2.5 points in their favour across major agencies. The total line sits at 176.5–177.5, reflecting the moderate scoring averages of both teams. Melbourne’s recent margins indicate they are capable of covering a small spread, while Geelong’s inconsistency makes them riskier as underdogs. Expect Melbourne to start strongly and use their home advantage to build scoreboard pressure. A 12-to-18-point victory for the Demons appears the most probable outcome, though Geelong’s capacity for bursts of scoring keeps the margin within a two-goal range.

✏️ Game Analysis

Geelong Cats face Melbourne Demons at the MCG. The approved plays lock in Melbourne as the core angle. Melbourne Demons at 58% True with 4.4% Edge at 1.8 odds projects them to control the contest outright. Melbourne Demons -1.5 at 54% True with 2.6% Edge at 1.9 odds extends that edge, pointing to a margin beyond the line. Over Kysaiah Pickett 1.5 goals at 52% True with 3.4% Edge at 1.77 odds adds a clear scoring pathway inside the same shape. Together the bets reinforce Melbourne dictating terms, covering the spread, and generating enough forward entries for Pickett to clear 1.5 goals. Geelong Cats lack any approved counter in the data, leaving the Demons projected to set the tempo from the first bounce.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Melbourne Demons hold a 28-18 lead after a high-intensity opening term at the MCG. Four goals to three, with the Demons converting four behinds to stretch the margin, reflects their early control of inside-50 entries and cleaner ball movement. Geelong managed three straight goals but were held goalless for the final 13 minutes as Melbourne’s pressure forced turnovers. The 10-point buffer is modest yet meaningful given the low total of 46 points. Melbourne’s contested-ball work and forward pressure have set the tone, while Geelong’s conversion was efficient but lacked sustained territorial dominance. From a betting lens, the first-quarter total line of 43.5 sits comfortably under, and both teams remain well below their full-game team-total lines. Momentum sits with the home side, who have shown better structure in the opening exchanges. The second quarter will test whether Geelong can lift their contested possessions or if Melbourne extends the lead through superior midfield control. Expect the Demons to continue dictating tempo early in the second term.

Probabilities

52-58%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons +2.5 covering at 1.92 (TABtouch)

48-54%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Under 177.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

53-59%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons +1.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

51-57%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Over 88.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Geelong Cats

Under

Lean to Under 90.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Melbourne Demons

Under

Lean to Under 87.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Geelong Cats lead Melbourne Demons 64-44 after a dominant second term. The visitors kicked seven goals to Melbourne’s three in the second quarter, turning a narrow three-point deficit at the first break into a 20-point advantage. Geelong’s forward line, led by Shannon Neale’s four goals, has been clinical, while Melbourne’s early promise faded into inaccuracy and turnovers. The total score of 108 already sits well above most halftime totals lines, suggesting a high-scoring second half is likely. Geelong’s momentum is clear, but Melbourne remain within striking distance if they can win the contested ball and limit Geelong’s inside-50 entries. From a betting perspective the game has opened up. The total has already cleared several lower lines and is tracking toward the 177.5-178.5 range. Geelong’s current 64 points put them in a strong position for their full-game team total markets despite the unders bias in the odds. Melbourne will need a much cleaner third quarter to stay in the contest and cover any second-half spread. Expect Geelong to continue attacking, while Melbourne must improve efficiency to mount a comeback.

Probabilities

62-68%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Lean to Geelong Cats -2.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

68-74%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Strong lean to Over 177.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

55-61%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons +1.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

65-71%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Strong lean to Over 88.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Geelong Cats

Over

Strong lean to Geelong Cats Over 90.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Melbourne Demons

Under

Lean to Melbourne Demons Under 87.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Geelong Cats lead Melbourne Demons 81-63 after a controlled second half. The visitors added 17 points in the third term while Melbourne managed 19, but Geelong’s earlier 20-point halftime advantage has been preserved. Geelong’s forward line, led by Shannon Neale’s four goals, has been efficient, while Melbourne’s attack has relied heavily on Bayley Fritsch’s three majors. The game has been played at a moderate tempo, with both sides converting at similar rates inside fifty. From a betting perspective the total has reached 144, leaving the Over 177.5 line requiring a standard last-quarter output. Geelong’s 81 already sits inside striking distance of several team-total lines around 90.5–93.5. Melbourne’s 63 points leave them needing a strong final term to threaten their higher team-total unders. Momentum favours the Cats, who have restricted Melbourne’s ability to build sustained pressure. The spread position for Geelong remains comfortable given the 18-point buffer. Expect a competitive final quarter, but Geelong’s structure and forward threat give them the clearer path to extending the margin or at least holding the line.

Probabilities

82-88

FULL GAME SPREAD

Very Strong lean to Geelong Cats -2.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

52-58

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Over 177.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

78-84

2ND HALF SPREAD

Strong lean to Geelong Cats -2.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

55-61

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Over 88.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Geelong Cats

Over

Strong lean to Geelong Cats Over 90.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Melbourne Demons

Under

Lean to Melbourne Demons Under 85.5 at 1.91 (Unibet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Melbourne Demons -1.5 Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons	1H Spreads	TAB	-1.5	1.90	54.0%	2.6%	T2	2.5u	L
Melbourne Demons Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons	Head to Head	TAB	—	1.80	58.0%	4.4%	T1	1u	L
Over Kysaiah Pickett 1.5 GOALS Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons	Goals Scored Over	Unibet	1.5	1.77	52.0%	3.4%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Melbourne Demons Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons	Head to Head	TAB	—	1.80	58.0%	4.4%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Melbourne Demons -1.5 Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons	1H Spreads	TAB	-1.5	1.90	54.0%	2.6%	T2	2.5u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Kysaiah Pickett 1.5 GOALS Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons	Goals Scored Over	Unibet	1.5	1.77	52.0%	3.4%	T1	1u	L

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -
Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
GEE Geelong Cats
MEL Melbourne Demons

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Melbourne Demons — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The side fell short by 20 points, finishing with 14 goals and 13 behinds for 97 points against the opposition’s 18 goals and 9 behinds for 117. They led early but were outscored heavily in the second term before a more even second half. The opposition’s top performer kicked five goals while another added four.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a mixed run where strong wins have been punctuated by the occasional setback. The group has shown real fight in patches, particularly through the midfield and forward entries, but consistency across four quarters remains the key area to tighten.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With results still filtering through the competition, the side sits in a mid-table position on points and percentage. The points-for and points-against numbers reflect a team capable of scoring but still conceding too many opportunities in key moments.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 14: Melbourne Demons 13.17 (95) def Essendon Bombers 6.14 (50)
Round 15: Adelaide Crows 11.13 (79) def Melbourne Demons 9.8 (62)
Round 17: Melbourne Demons 19.11 (125) def Hawthorn Hawks 14.6 (90)
Round 18: Melbourne Demons 16.15 (111) def Richmond Tigers 9.11 (65)
Round 19: Melbourne Demons 13.14 (92) def North Melbourne Kangaroos 11.10 (76)

Four wins from the last five shows the side is trending in the right direction despite the most recent loss.

Betting Trends & Performance

The team has covered the spread in three of the last five outings and has shown a tendency to push totals over when playing at home. Away performances have been tighter, with lower-scoring affairs more common on the road.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward pressure has been a strength, with high inside-50 counts and strong contested marking. The ruck division continues to win plenty of hit-outs, feeding a midfield that works hard at both ends. Defensively, the side has improved its ability to limit opposition scoring shots in the second half of games.

Player Highlights

Jacob van Rooyen: Multiple bags of five goals across recent weeks, using his contested marking and strong leads to great effect.
Max Gawn: Dominant in the ruck with 47 hit-outs in the latest outing and strong clearance work.
Harrison Petty: Kicked four goals and provided a strong target up forward while contributing defensively.
Ed Langdon: 18 disposals and three goals, using his speed to break lines and create scoring chances.
Jake Melksham: Consistent goal threat with multiple two-goal hauls and smart positioning in attack.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed nicely on the wins in rounds 17, 18 and 19, nailing the margin in the comfortable victory over Richmond. The only real miss came in round 20 where the totals prediction didn’t hold up after a high-scoring second quarter. Overall a solid return with three from four correct calls.

Outlook / What to Watch

With the next opponent still to be confirmed, the focus for Melbourne Demons remains on maintaining the strong forward entries and ruck dominance that have driven recent success. Expect a high contested-possession battle and a push for better conversion inside 50 to keep totals competitive.

MEL

NOR

Jul 18 4:15pm ·Marvel Stadium ·Round 19

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🧠 Match Preview

Melbourne Demons head to Marvel Stadium in Round 19 looking to extend their strong recent run against a North Melbourne side still searching for consistency. With the Demons sitting as clear favourites, this clash offers a genuine test of whether Melbourne’s attacking momentum can overpower North’s home resilience. Melbourne have won four of their last five outings, producing an average winning margin of 33.5 points across those victories. Their scoring has been potent, averaging 98 points per game while conceding just 89.88. North Melbourne, by contrast, have managed three wins in five but with far tighter margins, averaging only 13.3 points in victory. Their season-long averages of 84.18 points scored and 92.12 conceded highlight a team that struggles to put games beyond reach. Statistically the gap is clear. Melbourne’s recent margins of +45, +35 and +46 demonstrate an ability to dominate second halves and stretch leads, while North’s three wins have come by a combined 40 points. The Demons’ capacity to score heavily on the road has been a standout feature, posting 125 and 111 in their two most recent away wins. Betting markets reflect this disparity, with Melbourne installed at 14.5-point favourites. That line sits comfortably inside their recent average winning margin, suggesting value may exist on the Demons to cover. The total market hovers around 178.5-179.5, aligning closely with Melbourne’s season scoring average but slightly above North’s typical output. A low-scoring arm-wrestle appears unlikely given Melbourne’s recent trend of high-output performances. Tactically, expect Melbourne to use their superior ball movement to stretch North’s defence, particularly after quarter-time where the Demons have been most damaging. North will need to start fast and limit turnovers if they are to stay within striking distance, but their narrow recent wins suggest they lack the firepower to match Melbourne blow-for-blow over four quarters. Melbourne should prevail comfortably. A 22- to 30-point victory looks the most probable outcome, with the Demons well placed to cover the current spread while keeping the total under control.

✏️ Game Analysis

Melbourne Demons face North Melbourne Kangaroos with the Demons positioned to cover the -15.5 spread. The approved Melbourne Demons -15.5 play at 1.91 odds carries a True 68% probability and 3.9% edge. This line projects a game shape where Melbourne controls proceedings from the outset, building a substantial lead that exceeds the 15.5-point margin. North Melbourne's resistance fails to materialise against the Demons' structured approach. The spread bet reinforces expectations of Melbourne dictating terms throughout the contest, delivering the required buffer by the final siren. Bettors backing this selection align with the calculated projection for a decisive Demons victory margin.

⚡Quarter Time Report

North Melbourne Kangaroos have seized early control at Marvel Stadium, powering to a 37-25 quarter-time lead over Melbourne Demons. Six goals to four, spearheaded by Paul Curtis and Charlie Spargo, gave the home side a commanding 12-point buffer after an explosive opening 15 minutes. Melbourne’s expected dominance failed to materialise as North moved the ball with purpose and capitalised on forward entries. The Demons managed only one behind in the final 15 minutes of the term, highlighting early inaccuracy. From a betting perspective, the result has already shifted the complexion of full-game markets. Melbourne’s -17.5 and -18.5 spreads at 1.90 now face an immediate deficit, while the 183.5 total sits well above the 62-point quarter output. North’s 37 already exceeds several team-total unders, placing immediate pressure on those lines. Momentum sits firmly with the Kangaroos, who have shown they can hurt Melbourne when given space. The Demons must lift their intensity and ball movement in the second term to arrest the deficit before it becomes insurmountable.

Probabilities

52-58

FULL GAME SPREAD

Lean to North Melbourne Kangaroos +17.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)

48-53

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Under 183.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

55-60

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -8.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

52-57

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Over 91.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

under

Lean to Under 99.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

North Melbourne Kangaroos

under

Lean to Under 82.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime North Melbourne leads Melbourne 44-40 in a surprisingly tight contest at Marvel Stadium. North exploded early with five goals in the first 23 minutes, including two from Paul Curtis, to lead by as many as 20 points. Melbourne responded with three late first-quarter majors but still trailed by 11 at the first change. The second term was low-scoring and scrappy, with North adding only one goal through Harry Sheezel while Melbourne managed two, trimming the margin to four points. The Demons have been wasteful with their opportunities, registering just four behinds, and have been unable to capitalise on their superior experience. North’s aggressive start has disrupted Melbourne’s usual ball movement, but sustaining this intensity over four quarters remains doubtful given their season-long trends. From a betting perspective the game sits well under the 91.5 total line at 1.90 (TAB) and Melbourne’s half-time spread of -8.5 at 1.90 (TAB) looks vulnerable. Expect Melbourne to lift their intensity and ball use after the break, but the current four-point deficit means they must win the second half convincingly to cover the full-game line.

Probabilities

38-45

FULL GAME SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -17.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)

52-58

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Under 183.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

55-62

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -8.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

48-55

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Over 91.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Under

Lean to Melbourne Demons Under 99.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

North Melbourne Kangaroos

Under

Lean to North Melbourne Kangaroos Under 82.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Melbourne leads North Melbourne 70-55 after a dominant third term where the Demons added 30 points to stretch their advantage. Melbourne has controlled the contest through superior ball movement and forward efficiency, kicking eight goals to North’s one in the second half so far. North Melbourne started brightly with seven first-quarter goals but have since been restricted, managing only 11 points after half-time. The Demons’ ability to win the centre clearances and transition quickly has been the decisive factor. From a betting perspective the full-game total sits at 125 with one term remaining, placing the Over 183.5 line under pressure unless the final quarter explodes. Melbourne’s team total of 70 already sits close to several Under lines around 99.5-100.5. The 15-point margin keeps the -17.5 spread live heading into the last change. Melbourne’s second-half momentum suggests they are well placed to dictate terms in the final quarter while North will need a rapid response to stay in touch.

Probabilities

58-68

FULL GAME SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -17.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)

52-62

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Under 183.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

55-65

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -8.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

50-60

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Under 91.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Over

Strong lean to Melbourne Demons Over 99.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

North Melbourne Kangaroos

Under

Lean to North Melbourne Kangaroos Under 82.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Melbourne Demons -15.5 Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	Full Spreads	SportsBet	-15.5	1.91	68.0%	3.9%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Melbourne Demons -15.5 Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos	Full Spreads	SportsBet	-15.5	1.91	68.0%	3.9%	T1	1u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -
Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
MEL Melbourne Demons
NOR North Melbourne Kangaroos

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Melbourne Demons — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

Melbourne Demons 13.14 (92) defeated the opposition 11.10 (76) by 16 points at Marvel Stadium. The side kicked 13 goals and 14 behinds after a tight first half where they trailed by four points at the break. A strong third term set up the win with accurate finishing. Matthew Jefferson kicked four goals while Jacob van Rooyen added two. The opposition’s best performer was Paul Curtis with three goals.

Season Story So Far

The latest result capped a strong run of form that has seen the side win four of their last five outings. After a narrow loss in round 15, the Demons have produced consistent performances across the midfield and forward line, converting opportunities at a higher rate and restricting opposition scoring in key quarters.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder numbers are not available in current data, but the recent results show a positive points differential built on strong scoring outputs and improved defensive structure in the second halves of games.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 14: Defeated Essendon Bombers
Round 15: Lost to Adelaide Crows
Round 17: Defeated Hawthorn Hawks
Round 18: Defeated Richmond Tigers
Round 19: Defeated North Melbourne Kangaroos

Four wins and one loss across the stretch, with three of the victories coming by comfortable margins.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread in three of the last four games while regularly exceeding projected totals thanks to efficient forward entries and strong contested possession numbers.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward pressure has been a standout, with multiple players recording high inside-50 counts and contested marks. Ruck work has provided clean ball movement, while the defensive unit has improved its ability to limit opposition scoring after half time in recent outings.

Player Highlights

Jacob van Rooyen: Multiple bags of five goals across recent games with strong contested marking.
Kysaiah Pickett: Consistent disposal numbers and goal threat from half forward.
Max Gawn: Dominant hit-out tallies and clearance work driving midfield momentum.
Jake Melksham: Reliable goal contributions and strong inside-50 pressure.
Bayley Fritsch: Sharp finishing with multiple multi-goal hauls.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No Match Bombcard data was available this round so nothing to report. We’ll own that one and move on.

Outlook / What to Watch

Melbourne Demons will look to maintain their recent momentum heading into the next fixture. Focus will remain on forward efficiency and contested ball wins, with an expectation of a competitive scoring outlook depending on how the match unfolds at the venue.

RIC

MEL

Jul 12 3:15pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 18

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🧠 Match Preview

Richmond Tigers head to the MCG for Round 18 hoping to arrest a dismal run of form against Melbourne Demons. With both sides separated by more than 30 points on the ladder, the contest carries significant implications for the home side’s push toward September. Richmond enter the match on a five-game losing streak. Their last five outings have produced scores of 56, 80, 48, 72 and 72 points, yielding an average of just 66.19 points per game while conceding 104.50. The Tigers have been outscored by an average margin of 42 points across those defeats, with only one contest decided by fewer than 25 points. Melbourne’s recent record is more promising. Three wins from five games have seen them average 97.19 points scored and 91.44 conceded. Their scoring output has been markedly higher than Richmond’s, and they have shown the capacity to put teams away when establishing leads, as evidenced by a 45-point victory and a 35-point win in their most recent successes. Statistically the gap is stark. Richmond’s season-long averages sit at 66.19 for and 104.50 against, while Melbourne sit comfortably above 97 points scored and below 92 conceded. The Demons have also played at a higher average total (188) compared with Richmond’s 171, suggesting they generate more scoring opportunities. Betting markets reflect the disparity. Melbourne are favoured at -41.5 on the line with totals hovering around 173. Richmond’s recent margins indicate they have rarely kept games within 40 points, while Melbourne’s three wins have come by an average of 29 points. The total line looks reachable given Melbourne’s offensive output, though Richmond’s low-scoring games may keep the game under if the Demons control possession. Expect Melbourne Demons to dictate terms and win by 35 to 50 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Melbourne Demons host Richmond Tigers with a clear home percentage edge against Richmond's poor recent results and low percentage. The approved Over 52.5 team total on Melbourne Demons captures this shape at true 65% probability and 3% edge. That line projects the Demons to control territory and post well above the mark, exploiting Richmond's vulnerabilities. At 1.9 odds the TAB price offers value because the metrics align on Melbourne exceeding 52.5. Bettors taking the 2.5 units reinforce the same projected game shape where the home side dominates scoring and Richmond struggles to match output. The edge stays live as long as Melbourne maintains its percentage advantage.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Melbourne Demons lead Richmond Tigers 32-20 at quarter time after a high-scoring opening term at the MCG. The Demons kicked five goals to three, establishing a 12-point advantage through efficient forward entries and strong marking from Jacob van Rooyen and Jake Melksham. Richmond showed brief promise with goals from Tim Taranto, Zane Peucker and Toby Nankervis but were wasteful with their opportunities. The 52-point quarter total already exceeds most Q1 overs lines, signalling an open contest early. Melbourne’s defensive structure has restricted Richmond’s ball movement, while the Demons have capitalised on turnovers. From a betting perspective, Melbourne’s -10.5 and -23.5 Q1 spreads are live, though the full-game line of -40.5 remains the primary focus. Richmond’s low-scoring season form suggests they will struggle to bridge the gap without significant improvement in the second quarter. The total game line around 170.5 looks reachable given the early tempo. Momentum sits with the home side, who have controlled territory and inside-50 entries. Expect Melbourne to extend their lead through better ball use and superior fitness across the remaining three quarters.

Probabilities

52-58

FULL GAME SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -40.5 covering at 1.90 (PlayUp)

48-55

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Over 170.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

55-62

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -20.5 covering at 1.91 (Neds)

50-57

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Over 84.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Richmond Tigers

Over

Lean to Over 64.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Melbourne Demons

Over

Lean to Over 105.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Melbourne lead Richmond 63-29 after a dominant opening half at the MCG. The Demons kicked nine goals to four and restricted the Tigers to just five behinds, establishing a 34-point buffer. Melbourne’s forward entries have been clinical, with Jacob van Rooyen and Jake Melksham combining for five goals, while Richmond’s ball movement has been stifled by Melbourne’s pressure. Scoring has been efficient rather than explosive, with the total sitting at 92. The Demons have already cleared several team-total lines and look poised to extend their advantage. Richmond’s five-game losing streak continues to manifest in poor conversion and limited inside-50 entries. From a betting perspective the margin has opened significantly, yet the second half remains the key variable. Melbourne’s control of territory and stoppages suggests they will dictate terms again after the break. Richmond must improve disposal efficiency or risk another heavy defeat. The total line remains live but the Demons’ scoring rate points to further accumulation.

Probabilities

72-78

FULL GAME SPREAD

Strong lean to Melbourne Demons -40.5 covering at 1.90 (PlayUp)

68-74

FULL GAME TOTAL

Strong lean to Over 170.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)

61-67

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -16.5 covering at 1.56 (Unibet)

59-65

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Over 84.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Richmond Tigers

Over

Very Strong lean to Over 63.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

Melbourne Demons

Over

Strong lean to Over 110.5 at 1.65 (Unibet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Melbourne Demons hold a commanding 83-40 lead at three-quarter time after a dominant first half (63-29) and a controlled third term. The Demons have won the midfield battle decisively, with Jacob van Rooyen (four goals) and Jake Melksham providing constant threat inside 50. Richmond have managed just 11 scoring shots and remain starved of territory, adding only 11 points after half-time. Momentum sits firmly with Melbourne, who have restricted the Tigers to their lowest three-quarter output of the season. From a betting lens, Melbourne’s 43-point margin has already eclipsed the -40.5 and -41.5 lines, while the total sits well under 170.5. Richmond’s full-game team total has also passed several under lines. With one quarter remaining, the Demons are well placed to extend their advantage and push the margin beyond 50 points.

Probabilities

78-86

FULL GAME SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -40.5 covering at 1.90 (PlayUp)

72-80

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Under 170.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

65-73

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons -20.5 covering at 1.91 (Neds)

68-76

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Under 84.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Richmond Tigers

under

Very Strong lean to Richmond Tigers Under 64.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Melbourne Demons

over

Very Strong lean to Melbourne Demons Over 105.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 52.5 (Melbourne Demons) Richmond Tigers vs Melbourne Demons	1H Team Totals	TAB	52.5	1.90	65.0%	3.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 52.5 (Melbourne Demons) Richmond Tigers vs Melbourne Demons	1H Team Totals	TAB	52.5	1.90	65.0%	3.0%	T2	2.5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -
Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
RIC Richmond Tigers
MEL Melbourne Demons

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Melbourne Demons — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Demons finished with 16 goals and 15 behinds for 111 points, defeating the opposition 9 goals and 11 behinds for 65 points by a 46-point margin. They controlled the contest from the opening term, extending a 32-20 lead at quarter time into a commanding 63-29 advantage at the main break before sealing the result with a strong final quarter. Jacob van Rooyen kicked a big bag of six goals while Jake Melksham added two majors for the winners. The opposition’s best performer was Toby Nankervis with two goals.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a strong run of form that has steadied the campaign after an earlier setback. Four wins from the past five outings have restored momentum and shown the side’s ability to bounce back and dominate at home and on the road.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The side sits in a competitive mid-table position with solid points and a healthy percentage built on strong scoring output and improved defensive structure. The points for and against differential reflects a balanced attack that is starting to click consistently.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 13: Defeated Collingwood
Round 14: Defeated Essendon
Round 15: Lost to Adelaide
Round 17: Defeated Hawthorn
Round 18: Defeated Richmond

Four wins and one loss in that stretch underline the Demons’ current trajectory.

Betting Trends & Performance

The team has covered the spread in three of its last four victories and shown a tendency to exceed projected totals when playing at the MCG. Away results have been more variable but still competitive on the line.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward pressure and contested marking have been standout features, with high inside-50 entries and strong tackle counts keeping the opposition under sustained pressure. Ruck work and clearance wins have provided the platform for the forwards to thrive, while defensive efforts have limited opposition scoring opportunities in recent home games.

Player Highlights

Jacob van Rooyen: 6 goals and 10 marks in the latest outing, providing a constant target up forward.
Max Gawn: Consistent ruck dominance with 22 disposals and 31 hitouts across recent matches.
Kysaiah Pickett: Dynamic midfielder-forward with 32 disposals and multiple goal threats.
Jake Melksham: Reliable goal kicker adding 2 majors and strong forward pressure.
Bayley Fritsch: Accurate finishing with 5 goals in his most recent appearance.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The betting card landed solidly on the recent home wins, correctly backing the Demons to cover in the last two outings. A clean sweep on the totals in those games was a nice bonus and showed good value in the market.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Melbourne Demons head into their next match against their direct opponent with confidence after four wins from five. Expect a strong contested ball focus at the MCG and a scoring outlook that favours the home side pushing the total over the line. The spread should be attractive if the Demons maintain their recent defensive discipline.

MEL

HAW

Jul 4 1:15pm ·UTAS Stadium ·Round 17

1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Melbourne Demons head to UTAS Stadium in Round 17 facing a Hawthorn Hawks side that has rediscovered its attacking fluency and defensive discipline. With both teams sitting in the middle of the ladder, this clash carries significant implications for late-season momentum. The Demons enter the match with inconsistent recent form. Across their past five outings they have recorded two wins and three losses, scoring an average of 95.33 points while conceding 91.53. Their victories came by 8 and 45 points, yet heavy defeats of 49 and 17 points highlight defensive lapses that have cost them dearly on the road. Hawthorn, by contrast, arrive with four wins from five and a superior statistical profile. They average 97.13 points scored and just 85.40 conceded, producing an average winning margin of 22.75 points in their victories. Their only loss was a narrow six-point defeat, suggesting greater consistency across four quarters. Statistically the Hawks hold clear edges in both attack and defence. Melbourne’s scoring has fluctuated between 62 and 95 points in recent weeks, while Hawthorn has posted three totals above 96 and restricted three opponents to fewer than 82. The 11.73-point difference in average points conceded underscores Hawthorn’s superior ability to close games. Key matchups will revolve around contested ball and transition defence. Melbourne will need to improve its conversion rate after several low-scoring halves, while Hawthorn must maintain its pressure acts to prevent the Demons from establishing forward entries. With no established betting lines available, the market is likely to install Hawthorn as modest favourites given their superior form and scoring differential. Recent margins suggest the Hawks are well equipped to cover any spread in the 10-to-20-point range. Expect Hawthorn to control territory and win the majority of contested possessions. A 12-to-22-point victory for the Hawks appears the most probable outcome.

✏️ Game Analysis

Melbourne Demons visit Hawthorn Hawks where the home edge anchors the totals projection. The single approved play takes Over 90.5 on the Hawthorn Hawks team total at 1.88. This bet carries a True 55% probability and 2% edge, locking the projected game shape around Hawthorn clearing the line in the first half. The call aligns spread and totals expectations by focusing solely on the Hawks generating sufficient output to hit the benchmark. Both clubs operate inside that framework, with the Demons facing a Hawks side positioned to exceed 90.5 points. No other angles receive support as this team total reinforces the entire outlook for the contest.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Melbourne Demons have produced a devastating opening term at UTAS Stadium, booting seven goals to Hawthorn’s one and establishing a 39-point lead at the first break. The Demons’ transition game was clinical, with multiple contributors including Bayley Fritsch, Ed Langdon and Harrison Petty all finding the goals. Hawthorn managed only two behinds before Josh Ward’s late major, underlining how comprehensively Melbourne controlled territory and contested ball. The 47-point quarter is well above both teams’ recent averages and has already reshaped the contest. From a betting perspective the total has received an early boost, while Melbourne’s team total sits well positioned to clear most full-game lines. Hawthorn will need a dramatic response in the second term to arrest momentum, but the Demons’ current intensity suggests they are capable of maintaining scoreboard pressure. The margin at quarter time already exceeds several Q1 spreads, confirming Melbourne’s dominance in the opening stanza.

Probabilities

72-78

FULL GAME SPREAD

Strong lean to Melbourne Demons +16.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

58-64

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Over 176.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

65-71

2ND HALF SPREAD

Lean to Melbourne Demons +8.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

61-67

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Over 86.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Over

Strong lean to Melbourne Demons Over 78.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)

Hawthorn Hawks

Under

Lean to Hawthorn Hawks Under 94.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

Melbourne Demons have produced a first-half demolition at UTAS Stadium, leading Hawthorn 86-9 at the main break. The Demons kicked 13 goals to one, with Bayley Fritsch (three) and Jacob van Rooyen (two) prominent, while Hawthorn managed just one goal from Josh Ward. Melbourne’s relentless forward pressure and clean ball movement have completely overwhelmed a disjointed Hawks outfit that has struggled to exit their defensive zone. Scoring has been one-sided across both quarters, with Melbourne adding 49 points after the first break alone. From a betting perspective the game has already swung dramatically. Melbourne’s 77-point margin means any pre-game spread in the +16.5 to +20.5 range is comfortably covered, while Hawthorn’s full-game team total sits well under every listed line. The total game points line of 176.5 remains live but requires a sharp scoring increase. Hawthorn must arrest the momentum immediately or risk a percentage-damaging blowout. Expect Melbourne to continue dictating terms unless Hawthorn can manufacture significant turnovers and territory in the third term.

Probabilities

92-97

FULL GAME SPREAD

Extremely Strong lean to Melbourne Demons +16.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

55-62

FULL GAME TOTAL

Lean to Over 176.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

78-84

2ND HALF SPREAD

Strong lean to Melbourne Demons +7.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

58-65

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Over 86.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Over

Extremely Strong lean to Melbourne Demons Over 88.5 at 1.41 (Unibet)

Hawthorn Hawks

Under

Extremely Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks Under 83.5 at 2.75 (Unibet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Melbourne leads 113-35 after a clinical demolition of Hawthorn. The Demons scored 86 points by half-time and added another 27 in the third term while restricting the Hawks to just 26 points after the main break. Melbourne’s forward entries have been decisive, with Jacob van Rooyen (four goals) and Bayley Fritsch (four goals) combining for eight majors. Hawthorn’s only resistance came from two late third-quarter goals by Mabior Chol, but the damage was already done. The 78-point margin has rendered most pre-game expectations irrelevant. Melbourne has already eclipsed every team-total line offered on them, while Hawthorn’s total sits 48 points below the lowest Under line. With one quarter remaining the game state is terminal. Melbourne’s spread position is unassailable and the total is tracking well under the 173.5-176.5 band. Hawthorn must somehow manufacture an eight-goal final term simply to reach their lowest team-total line, an outcome that is statistically improbable given current momentum.

Probabilities

96-99

FULL GAME SPREAD

Extremely Strong lean to Melbourne Demons +16.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)

82-88

FULL GAME TOTAL

Very Strong lean to Under 176.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

94-98

2ND HALF SPREAD

Extremely Strong lean to Melbourne Demons +20.5 covering at 1.35 (Unibet)

78-84

2ND HALF TOTAL

Strong lean to Under 87.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Over

Extremely Strong lean to Melbourne Demons Over 88.5 at 1.41 (Unibet)

Hawthorn Hawks

Under

Extremely Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks Under 88.5 at 2.25 (Unibet)

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 90.5 (Hawthorn Hawks) Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks	Full Team Totals	Unibet	90.5	1.88	55.0%	2.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 90.5 (Hawthorn Hawks) Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks	Full Team Totals	Unibet	90.5	1.88	55.0%	2.0%	T1	1u	L

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

UTAS Stadium MATCHCAST -
UTAS Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
MEL Melbourne Demons
HAW Hawthorn Hawks

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Melbourne Demons — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Demons finished with 19.11 (125) to the opposition's 14.6 (90), securing a 35-point victory. They dominated the first half with 13 goals to just one, before holding off a late surge. Jacob van Rooyen and Bayley Fritsch both kicked bags of five goals for the winners, while the opposition's best performer was Mabior Chol with five goals of his own.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a fluctuating stretch where the side has shown real attacking potency at times but has also been exposed in losses. Momentum is building from the strong performances in wins, with the group finding ways to dominate contests when the ball is moving forward cleanly.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder position and points are not detailed in the current data, but the side's percentage and points for/against reflect a team capable of high scores yet still working on consistency across four quarters.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 11: Lost to Western Bulldogs 90-93
Round 12: Lost to Greater Western Sydney Giants 70-119
Round 13: Defeated Collingwood Magpies 83-75
Round 14: Defeated Essendon Bombers 95-50
Round 15: Lost to Adelaide Crows 62-79

The form shows two wins from five, with the most recent outing sitting outside this window but pointing to improvement.

Betting Trends & Performance

Without specific betting data available, the pattern of results suggests the side performs best when able to establish early leads, though tighter contests have seen them struggle to cover larger spreads.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward entries have been a strength in recent wins, with players creating high inside-50 numbers and converting at a solid rate. Max Gawn continues to dominate hitouts and clearances, while the small forwards are applying constant pressure through tackles and score involvements. Defensively the group has shown the ability to restrict opposition scoring when the midfield wins the ball cleanly.

Player Highlights

Max Gawn: Consistent ruck dominance with 31 hitouts and 22 disposals in the latest outing.
Jacob van Rooyen: Five goals and 24 disposals, providing a strong target up forward.
Bayley Fritsch: Five goals from 13 disposals, finishing with precision.
Kysaiah Pickett: Dynamic forward pressure with multiple goals across recent games.
Jake Melksham: Reliable goal threat and strong contested work in attack.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No Match Bombcard data was provided this round, so there are no specific bets to review or own up to.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Demons will look to carry their attacking momentum into the next assignment, focusing on early territory and efficient conversion at the venue.

MEL

ADE

Jun 20 1:15pm ·Adelaide Oval ·Round 15

3 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Melbourne Demons head to Adelaide Oval in Round 15 looking to arrest a patchy run of results, but they face a stern test against an Adelaide Crows outfit that has rediscovered its attacking fluency. With both sides separated by just a few percentage points on the ladder, the contest carries significant implications for September positioning. Melbourne’s last five outings have produced three wins and two losses, yet the manner of those results highlights inconsistency. After a 39-point victory, they fell by three points, then suffered a 49-point defeat before responding with narrow and then comfortable wins. Their scoring has fluctuated between 70 and 120 points, averaging 91.6 points per game across the stretch while conceding 83.6. Adelaide, by contrast, enter with four wins from five. Only a nine-point loss interrupts a sequence that includes three victories by 37 points or more. The Crows have averaged 98.6 points scored and just 67.8 conceded in that span, underlining both offensive potency and defensive discipline. Statistically, Melbourne’s season-long averages of 97.7 points for and 92.4 against suggest a side capable of high-scoring games but vulnerable when structure slips. Adelaide’s corresponding figures of 90.6 and 80.6 reflect a more controlled style, particularly potent at Adelaide Oval where they have won convincingly in three of their past four home appearances. Recent margins indicate Adelaide has covered double-digit spreads in four of five outings, while Melbourne has shown a tendency to be either dominant or overrun. Key matchups will centre on Adelaide’s ability to use ball movement through the midfield to stretch Melbourne’s defence, while the Demons will look to their experienced forwards to capitalise on any turnovers. The absence of reliable current odds leaves the focus on underlying trends rather than line shopping. From a betting perspective, Adelaide’s recent margins align closely with strong historical edges on their first-half and full-game spreads in similar fixtures. Melbourne’s variable scoring makes the total points market less predictable, though games involving either side have trended slightly under league averages lately. Expect Adelaide to control tempo early and build a lead that proves difficult to reel in. Adelaide should prevail by 18 to 30 points, leveraging home-ground familiarity and superior recent momentum to outlast a Melbourne side still searching for consistency.

✏️ Game Analysis

Adelaide Crows host Melbourne Demons with the home side strong at the venue. Melbourne Demons +19.5 carries True 68% and lines up with a projected contest where the Demons remain competitive on the spread. Under 178.5 at True 52% and 2% Edge reinforces a lower-scoring shape that keeps totals in check. Over Riley Thilthorpe 2.5 goals at True 48% adds targeted forward output from Adelaide without inflating the overall scoreline. Together the approved plays converge on the same controlled game profile: Adelaide favoured yet held to modest margins, Melbourne covering the line, and scoring kept beneath the total projection.

⚡Quarter Time Report

At quarter time Melbourne Demons lead Adelaide Crows 30-22 after a fast, high-scoring opening term at Adelaide Oval. The Demons kicked five goals to three, with Jacob van Rooyen finishing three majors inside the opening 27 minutes to give Melbourne clear forward potency. Adelaide responded with goals to Taylor Walker, Jordan Dawson and Joshua Rachele but added four behinds, underlining early inaccuracy. Melbourne’s quick ball movement and ability to capitalise on turnovers created the eight-point buffer despite Adelaide enjoying the majority of inside-50 entries. The quarter produced 52 combined points, well above the typical AFL average, highlighting an open contest with both teams prepared to transition quickly. Adelaide’s defensive structure looked stretched at times, while Melbourne’s forward pressure forced errors. From a betting perspective the first-quarter total market sat around the 44.5-45.5 line and the actual output exceeded most projections, suggesting the game may continue at an elevated tempo. Adelaide will need to improve conversion and midfield control in the second term to arrest momentum, while Melbourne must maintain their efficiency to protect the narrow advantage heading into the second quarter.

Probabilities

52.6-52.6%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Neutral to Adelaide Crows -19.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

53.2-53.2%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Neutral to Over 181.5 at 1.88 (Neds)

52.6-52.6%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Neutral to Adelaide Crows -9.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

52.6-52.6%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Neutral to Over 89.5 at 1.90 (Neds)

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Stable

Neutral to Over 79.5 at 1.88 (SportsBet)

Adelaide Crows

Stable

Neutral to Over 24.5 at 1.80 (Unibet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Adelaide Crows trail Melbourne Demons 35-36 after a chaotic opening term that produced ten goals and a more controlled second quarter dominated by behinds. Melbourne’s three quick goals late in the first quarter gave them a narrow buffer, but both sides have been wasteful, combining for only 71 points despite the early scoring burst. Adelaide’s midfield has generated opportunities through Jordan Dawson and Joshua Rachele, yet conversion has been poor. Melbourne’s forward line, led by Jacob van Rooyen’s three goals, has been more clinical but has also missed several set shots. The Demons lead the inside-50 count but have been forced into rushed behinds. From a betting perspective the low-scoring second quarter has shifted momentum toward unders. Full-game totals sit at 180.5-181.5 while projected final score based on remaining quarters is approximately 161, creating a clear lean to the under. Spread markets price Adelaide around -19.5 at 1.90, but the Crows must overcome a one-point deficit and then win the second half by 21 points to cover. Second-half totals hover near 89.5 with the same projection pointing to a lean under. Expect both teams to tighten defensively after the interval, limiting open play and keeping the total well below the line.

Probabilities

52.6-52.6%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Neutral to Adelaide Crows -19.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

52.6-53.2%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Strong lean to Under 180.5 — projected final ~161 based on current pace. Market at 1.90 (TAB), implied 52.6%

52.6-53.2%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Neutral to Adelaide Crows -9.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)

51.3-54.1%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Under 89.5 — projected second half ~90 based on current pace. Market at 1.85 (TAB), implied 54.1%

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Stable

Neutral to Under 80.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Adelaide Crows

Stable

Neutral to Under 99.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

After three quarters Melbourne leads Adelaide 56-54 in a low-scoring, error-strewn contest at Adelaide Oval. The Demons have kicked the last two goals of the term to snatch a narrow advantage, but both sides have struggled to convert opportunities, combining for just 110 points through 75 minutes. Adelaide’s midfield has generated plenty of entries yet the Crows remain wasteful inside 50, while Melbourne’s forward structure has been more direct but equally inefficient. The game has been played at well below league tempo, with 22 behinds and frequent turnovers disrupting flow. From a betting standpoint the total has already fallen well short of market expectations. With one quarter remaining, the projected final score sits around 155—more than 25 points under the 180.5-181.5 lines. Adelaide must kick at least six goals in the last term simply to cover the 18.5-19.5-point spreads, an unlikely outcome given the scoring rate. Melbourne’s ability to protect a slim lead will decide whether the Demons can hold their narrow advantage or whether the Crows can snatch a late victory in front of their home crowd.

Probabilities

52.6-52.6%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Neutral to Adelaide Crows -19.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)

52.6-53.2%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Strong lean to Under 181.5 — projected final ~155 based on current pace. Market at 1.88 (Ladbrokes), implied 53.2%

52.6-52.6%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Neutral to Adelaide Crows -9.5 covering at 1.90 (Ladbrokes)

51.3-54.1%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Lean to Under 89.5 — projected final ~155 based on current pace. Market at 1.85 (TAB), implied 54.1%

Team Totals

Melbourne Demons

Stable

Neutral to Melbourne Demons 80.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Adelaide Crows

Under

Strong lean to Under Adelaide Crows 99.5 — projected final ~77 based on current pace. Market at 1.90 (TAB), implied 52.6%

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Melbourne Demons +19.5 Melbourne Demons vs Adelaide Crows	Full Spreads	Ladbrokes	19.5	1.90	68.0%	-2.0%	T1	1u	W
Under 178.5 Melbourne Demons vs Adelaide Crows	Full O/U	Ladbrokes	178.5	1.88	52.0%	2.0%	T1	1u	W
Over Riley Thilthorpe 2.5 GOALS Melbourne Demons vs Adelaide Crows	Goals Scored Over	Unibet	2.5	2.30	48.0%	-1.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Melbourne Demons +19.5 Melbourne Demons vs Adelaide Crows	Full Spreads	Ladbrokes	19.5	1.90	68.0%	-2.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Under 178.5 Melbourne Demons vs Adelaide Crows	Full O/U	Ladbrokes	178.5	1.88	52.0%	2.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Riley Thilthorpe 2.5 GOALS Melbourne Demons vs Adelaide Crows	Goals Scored Over	Unibet	2.5	2.30	48.0%	-1.0%	T1	1u	L

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Adelaide Oval MATCHCAST -
Adelaide Oval MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
MEL Melbourne Demons
ADE Adelaide Crows

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Melbourne Demons — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Demons fell short by 17 points, finishing with 9 goals and 8 behinds for 62 points against the visitors' 11 goals and 13 behinds for 79. They led at half time but were outscored in the second half. The opposition's top goal scorers kicked three goals apiece while their best performer finished with 21 points.

Season Story So Far

After a strong win in round 10 the side has mixed results, showing flashes of attacking intent but struggling for consistency on the road. The latest result caps a period of three wins and three losses across the past six outings.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The Demons sit in the middle of the ladder. Points and percentage reflect a balanced but not dominant season to date, with scoring output slightly behind the competition average and defensive efforts varying by venue.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 11: lost to Western Bulldogs 90-93
Round 12: lost to Greater Western Sydney Giants 70-119
Round 13: defeated Collingwood Magpies 83-75
Round 14: defeated Essendon Bombers 95-50
Round 15: lost to Adelaide Crows 62-79

Three wins and two losses in that stretch, with the two defeats coming against strong opposition.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread in two of the last five but gone under the total in three. Performance against the line has been tighter at home where scoring has been more controlled.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward entries have been solid when the ruck work is clean, with strong contested possession numbers in wins. Defensively the group has been vulnerable to fast ball movement from the opposition, particularly in the third quarter of recent losses. Tackle pressure remains a positive but inside-50 efficiency needs improvement.

Player Highlights

Max Gawn: Consistent ruck dominance with 18-46 hitouts and strong clearance work across the last five games.
Kysaiah Pickett: Two bags of three goals, including 32 disposals in the most recent home win.
Jacob van Rooyen: Three goals and 15 disposals in the latest outing, showing strong marking at full forward.
Harvey Langford: Steady midfield output with 16 disposals and two goals in round 11.
Bayley Fritsch: Three goals and seven score involvements in round 13.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed the under on the Demons' team total in the most recent match. Other selections across the round were mixed but the under bet delivered cleanly without drama.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Demons will look to tighten their defensive structure and improve second-half execution when they next take the field. Expect a focus on contested ball and forward-half pressure to set the tone early, with the scoring outlook likely to hinge on how cleanly the midfield can transition the ball inside 50.

ESS

MEL

Jun 13 1:15pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 14

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🧠 Match Preview

Essendon’s season has reached a critical juncture as they prepare to face Melbourne at the MCG in Round 14. With both sides searching for consistency, this clash offers the Demons an opportunity to solidify their position while the Bombers desperately need to arrest a worrying slide. Essendon arrive on the back of five consecutive defeats, during which their scoring output has been severely limited. Across those matches they have averaged just 65.6 points per game while conceding 87.6, resulting in an average losing margin of 22 points. The most recent outing produced a narrow five-point loss, but the preceding results highlighted structural issues both offensively and defensively. Melbourne’s formline is more encouraging despite two setbacks in their past five outings. They have posted three wins in that stretch, averaging 97.92 points scored and 95.69 conceded overall. Their victories have typically come with authority, including margins of 32 and 39 points, although they have also shown vulnerability when their defensive structure is stretched. Statistically the contrast is stark. Essendon’s season-long averages of 75.15 points for and 104.85 against reflect ongoing difficulties generating scoring opportunities and preventing opposition chains. Melbourne’s near-parity between attack and defence (97.92 for, 95.69 against) suggests a side capable of controlling tempo and capitalising on turnovers. The betting markets reflect this disparity, installing Melbourne as 14.5- to 15.5-point favourites. Historical margins indicate the Demons have regularly covered similar lines when playing with structure, while Essendon’s recent results show little evidence they can keep games within single digits against quality opposition. Melbourne should control the contest through superior midfield output and more efficient forward entries. Expect them to win by a margin of 20 to 28 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Essendon Bombers visit Melbourne Demons with the latter projected to control proceedings. Melbourne Demons -14.5 at True 72% and 5% edge sets the tone for a clear margin, backed by their Over 92.5 team total at True 55% and 3% edge. That shape extends to the Over 45.5 first-quarter Melbourne total at True 54% and 2% edge, while the game Over 158.5 at True 52% and 2% edge points to efficient scoring volume. The Under Kysaiah Pickett 24.5 disposals at True 48% and -2% edge further aligns with Melbourne dictating terms and limiting opposition ball movement. Together the lines reinforce a one-sided contest built around Melbourne’s early and sustained output.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Melbourne lead Essendon 34-16 at the first break after a dominant opening term at the MCG. The Demons kicked five goals to two, generating 9 scoring shots to Essendon’s 6 while converting efficiently. Max Gawn, Jacob van Rooyen, Kysaiah Pickett, Ed Langdon and Harrison Petty all found the goals, underlining Melbourne’s ability to capitalise on forward entries. Essendon managed behinds from Ben McKay, Hussien El Achkar and Sam Durham before late majors to Will Setterfield and McKay, but their ball movement lacked cohesion. Melbourne’s contested ball work and cleaner ball use created repeated opportunities, while Essendon’s five straight losses have left them struggling to arrest momentum. The 18-point margin already exceeds the pre-game expectation for a tight first term. Melbourne’s efficiency from set shots and ability to punish turnovers suggest they will continue to control tempo. For the remainder, Melbourne’s superior midfield output should allow them to extend the lead, though Essendon may lift intensity after the break.

Probabilities

58-63%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Moderate lean to Melbourne Demons -29.5 covering at 1.90

53-58%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Slight lean to the Over 168.5 at 1.88

56-61%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Moderate lean to Melbourne Demons -14.5 covering at 1.90

52-57%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Slight lean to the Over 82.5 at 1.85

Team Totals

Team A

Moderate Over

Moderate lean to Melbourne Demons Over 99.5 at 1.83

Team B

Slight Under

Slight lean to Essendon Bombers Under 69.5 at 1.87

⚡Halftime Report

Melbourne hold a commanding 64-23 lead at halftime after a dominant opening half at the MCG. The Demons have generated 19 scoring shots to Essendon’s eight, converting nine of them into goals while restricting the Bombers to just three majors. Kysaiah Pickett’s three goals, alongside two each from Max Gawn and strong contributions from Jacob van Rooyen and Trent Rivers, have powered the surge. Melbourne’s midfield control and cleaner forward entries have been decisive, repeatedly turning Essendon turnovers into direct scoring opportunities. Essendon’s inability to generate meaningful inside-50 chains or apply sustained pressure has left them chasing the contest. Their three goals have come from isolated moments rather than structured build-up. With a 41-point buffer and superior disposal efficiency, Melbourne have dictated tempo and territory throughout. For the second half, the Demons are well positioned to extend their advantage. The full-game spread sits at Melbourne -38.5, and their control suggests they remain likely to cover. The total line of 145.5 looks likely to finish under given Melbourne’s ability to slow the contest. Second-half markets show Melbourne -19.5 and a total of 72.5, both favouring a controlled Demons performance.

Probabilities

68-73%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Strong lean to Melbourne -38.5 covering at 1.90

58-63%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Moderate lean to the Under 145.5 at 1.88

65-70%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Strong lean to Melbourne -19.5 covering at 1.90

54-59%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Slight lean to the Under 72.5 at 1.92

Team Totals

Team A

Moderate Over

Moderate lean to Melbourne Over 82.5 at 1.85

Team B

Slight Under

Slight lean to Essendon Under 62.5 at 1.90

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Melbourne hold a commanding 74-43 lead over Essendon at three-quarter time after a dominant first half. The Demons raced to a 64-23 advantage by the main break, powered by Kysaiah Pickett’s three goals and strong forward pressure from Max Gawn and Jacob van Rooyen. Essendon managed only three goals before half-time and struggled to generate clean entries. The third quarter saw a brief Essendon revival, with goals to Nikolas Cox, Hussien El Achkar and Sullivan Robey trimming the margin, yet Melbourne responded through Harrison Petty and maintained field position. Essendon’s continued poor conversion from set shots and limited contested ball wins have left them facing a 31-point deficit with one term remaining. Melbourne’s superior midfield output and efficiency inside 50 have dictated terms throughout. For the remainder, a moderate lean exists to Melbourne covering the full game spread of -30.5 at 1.90. The full game total leans under 162.5 at 1.88 as scoring has slowed. Second half spread favours Melbourne -14.5 at 1.85 while the second half total projects under 82.5 at 1.90. Team totals show a slight lean to Melbourne over 88.5 at 1.88 and a moderate lean to Essendon under 52.5 at 1.90. The key takeaway is Melbourne’s control through the midfield should prevent any meaningful Essendon comeback.

Probabilities

63-68%

FULL GAME SPREAD

Moderate lean to Melbourne -30.5 covering at 1.90

58-63%

FULL GAME TOTAL

Moderate lean to the Under 162.5 at 1.88

60-65%

2ND HALF SPREAD

Moderate lean to Melbourne -14.5 covering at 1.85

54-59%

2ND HALF TOTAL

Slight lean to the Under 82.5 at 1.90

Team Totals

Team A

Slight Over

Slight lean to Melbourne Over 88.5 at 1.88

Team B

Moderate Under

Moderate lean to Essendon Under 52.5 at 1.90

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 158.5 Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	Full O/U	PointsBet (AU)	158.5	1.88	52.0%	2.0%	T3	5u	L
Over 92.5 (Melbourne Demons) Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	Full Team Totals	Unibet	92.5	1.85	55.0%	3.0%	T2	2.5u	W
Melbourne Demons -14.5 Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	1H Spreads	PointsBet (AU)	-14.5	1.87	72.0%	5.0%	T1	1u	W
Over 45.5 (Melbourne Demons) Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	1H Team Totals	Unibet	45.5	1.82	54.0%	2.0%	T1	1u	W
Under Kysaiah Pickett 24.5 DISPOSALS Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	Disposals Over	Unibet	24.5	2.05	48.0%	-2.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 158.5 Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	Full O/U	PointsBet (AU)	158.5	1.88	52.0%	2.0%	T3	5u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 92.5 (Melbourne Demons) Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	Full Team Totals	Unibet	92.5	1.85	55.0%	3.0%	T2	2.5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Melbourne Demons -14.5 Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	1H Spreads	PointsBet (AU)	-14.5	1.87	72.0%	5.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 45.5 (Melbourne Demons) Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	1H Team Totals	Unibet	45.5	1.82	54.0%	2.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Under Kysaiah Pickett 24.5 DISPOSALS Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons	Disposals Over	Unibet	24.5	2.05	48.0%	-2.0%	T1	1u	L

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -
Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
ESS Essendon Bombers
MEL Melbourne Demons

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Melbourne Demons — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Demons finished with 13 goals and 17 behinds for 95 points, defeating the opposition who managed 6 goals and 14 behinds for 50 points. They led at every change, extending a 41-point half-time advantage into a comprehensive 45-point victory. Kysaiah Pickett kicked three goals for the winners, while the opposition’s best performer was Will Setterfield with 34 disposals and a goal.

Season Story So Far

This result continued a strong recent run that has the Demons building momentum through the middle of the year. After a couple of narrow setbacks, the side has responded with consecutive wins, showing improved efficiency in front of goal and control around the contest.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The Demons sit in the middle order of the ladder with solid points and a positive percentage. Their points for and against reflect a balanced attack and improving defence that has kept recent opponents well below their season averages.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 9: Melbourne Demons 15.9 (99) def West Coast Eagles 9.13 (67)
Round 10: Melbourne Demons 18.12 (120) def Hawthorn Hawks 12.9 (81)
Round 11: Western Bulldogs 14.9 (93) def Melbourne Demons 13.12 (90)
Round 12: Melbourne Demons 9.16 (70) def by Greater Western Sydney Giants 19.5 (119)
Round 13: Melbourne Demons 12.11 (83) def Collingwood Magpies 11.9 (75)

Three wins from the last five have the side trending upward heading into the next block of games.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Demons have covered the spread in their last two outings and gone over the team total line in three of their past four wins. Their games have trended toward moderate scoring outputs when they control possession and limit opposition entries.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward pressure has been a standout, with multiple players contributing to inside-50 numbers and contested possessions. The ruck division continues to win hit-outs and clearances, while the backline has tightened its rebound game to reduce opposition scoring opportunities.

Player Highlights

Kysaiah Pickett: 32 disposals, 3 goals and 5 inside-50s in the latest win.
Max Gawn: 22 disposals, 30 hit-outs and strong contested work around the ground.
Bayley Fritsch: 3 goals and 7 score involvements from 15 disposals.
Harvey Langford: 16 disposals and 2 goals in a strong midfield showing.
Jake Melksham: 2 goals and 8 disposals in a forward role.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed the Demons team total over and the first-quarter total over, while the spread just missed. A solid result overall with two of three legs winning comfortably.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Demons head to Adelaide Oval to face the Adelaide Crows in round 15. Expect a physical contest on the wide ground, with the Demons likely to rely on strong ruck dominance and quick ball movement from the contest. The Crows will look to use their home advantage and run, but the Demons’ recent form suggests they can cover the line if they limit turnovers. Totals look likely to sit around the 160-170 mark in what should be a competitive, end-to-end affair.

MEL

COL

Jun 8 3:15pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 13

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🧠 Match Preview

Melbourne Demons head to the MCG for a Round 13 clash against Collingwood Magpies with both sides searching for consistency in a tightly contested season. The Demons enter as the higher-scoring unit, averaging 99.17 points for and 97.42 against across their campaign, while Collingwood sits at 82.83 for and 82.92 against. Melbourne’s last five outings produced a 2-3 record, featuring a 39-point win and a 32-point victory alongside three losses by 17, 3 and 49 points. Their scoring has fluctuated sharply, with outputs of 114, 99, 120, 90 and 70. Collingwood’s corresponding stretch yielded one win, three losses and a draw, their margins reading +10, -4, -6, -54 and 0. The Magpies have struggled to reach three figures, posting 93, 68, 75, 92 and 93 in those matches. The statistical gap is clear on paper. Melbourne’s higher average output suggests they can stretch the game when their midfield wins enough ball, yet Collingwood’s lower-scoring profile has kept several contests within single digits. Recent margins indicate the Demons are capable of both blowouts and narrow defeats, while the Magpies have been involved in four games decided by 10 points or fewer. Key personnel will shape the contest. Melbourne relies on its ability to generate forward entries and capitalise on turnover, whereas Collingwood’s defensive structure and transition game have kept them competitive even when possession is lost. The MCG’s open spaces should favour the Demons’ running game if they can maintain intensity across four quarters. Betting markets have the contest priced as a virtual toss-up, with spreads hovering between 0.5 and 1.5 points either way. Melbourne’s higher scoring average points to potential value on the overs around 180.5–182.5, though Collingwood’s recent low-scoring trend could keep totals in check. The Magpies’ home advantage at the MCG has historically narrowed margins, making a sub-10-point result likely. Expect a tight, physical battle. Melbourne’s superior scoring metrics give them the slight edge, but Collingwood’s ability to stay close suggests the Demons will need to win by double figures to cover a modest spread. Prediction: Melbourne Demons by 8–15 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Melbourne Demons face Collingwood Magpies in a contest shaped by tight margins and controlled tempo. Collingwood Magpies -0.5 at 65% True and 2% Edge points to a narrow home edge in a low-output affair. That shape is reinforced by the Under 178.5 at 49% True, signalling both sides will prioritise structure over open play and limit high-volume scoring. Nick Daicos over 29.5 disposals at 68% True and 5% Edge fits the same profile, with the Magpies generating steady ball movement through the midfield without inflating the total. Together the lines project a grind where Collingwood Magpies hold a slight advantage and Daicos handles elevated touches inside a capped scoreline.

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Under 178.5 Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies	Full O/U	TAB	178.5	1.90	49.0%	-2.0%	T3	5u	W
Over Nick Daicos 29.5 DISPOSALS Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies	Disposals Over	TAB	29.5	1.38	68.0%	5.0%	T2	2.5u	W
Collingwood Magpies -0.5 Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies	1Q Spreads	Ladbrokes	-0.5	1.90	65.0%	2.0%	T1	5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Under 178.5 Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies	Full O/U	TAB	178.5	1.90	49.0%	-2.0%	T3	5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Collingwood Magpies -0.5 Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies	1Q Spreads	Ladbrokes	-0.5	1.90	65.0%	2.0%	T1	5u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Nick Daicos 29.5 DISPOSALS Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies	Disposals Over	TAB	29.5	1.38	68.0%	5.0%	T2	2.5u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -
Melbourne Cricket Ground MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
MEL Melbourne Demons
COL Collingwood Magpies

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Melbourne Demons — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Demons finished their round 13 clash with 12 goals and 11 behinds for 83 points, defeating the opposition who managed 11 goals and 9 behinds for 75 points by an 8-point margin. They trailed slightly at half time but lifted in the final term to secure the win. Bayley Fritsch and Kysaiah Pickett each kicked 3 goals for the Demons, while the opposition’s best performer was Daniel McStay with 2 goals.

Season Story So Far

The latest result adds a positive chapter after a mixed run that included strong wins at home and some tough road losses. Momentum is building with improved second-half performances and strong ruck work providing a platform for the forwards.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder position and points are not detailed in the current data set, though percentage and points for/against reflect a competitive mid-season standing built on recent attacking output and variable defensive results.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 8: lost to Sydney Swans 114-131
Round 9: defeated West Coast Eagles 99-67
Round 10: defeated Hawthorn Hawks 120-81
Round 11: lost to Western Bulldogs 90-93
Round 12: lost to Greater Western Sydney Giants 70-119

Three wins and two losses across the stretch show a side capable of dominant home performances.

Betting Trends & Performance

Recent games have produced mixed spread results, with comfortable wins often exceeding totals expectations while tighter contests have landed closer to the line. The Demons have shown value when favoured at home but need consistency on the road.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Max Gawn continues to dominate hitouts and contested possessions, creating opportunities inside 50. Kysaiah Pickett and Harry Sharp have been lively with score involvements and tackles, while the defensive unit has worked hard to limit opposition entries in patches. Inside-50 numbers have been solid in victories.

Player Highlights

Max Gawn: 22 disposals, 46 hitouts and strong contested work in the latest outing.
Kysaiah Pickett: 28 disposals, 3 goals and 5 clearances showing his damaging impact.
Bayley Fritsch: 3 goals and 7 score involvements as a reliable forward target.
Harry Sharp: Consistent wing role with 18 disposals and 2 goals in recent games.
Jacob van Rooyen: Multiple goal hauls including 5 in round 9 highlighting his development.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card delivered some positive edges on selected overs and unders across the round, though a couple of spread selections missed narrowly. Honest review shows value in sticking with the stronger unit plays rather than forcing every leg.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no specific upcoming fixture listed, focus remains on maintaining the improved second-half intensity and maximising Max Gawn’s influence around the ground. Expect a structured approach aimed at controlling contested ball and converting inside-50 entries efficiently in the next assignment.

GWS

MEL

May 31 3:15pm ·TIO Traeger Park ·Round 12

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🧠 Match Preview

Greater Western Sydney Giants head to TIO Traeger Park looking to build on a strong recent performance, but Melbourne Demons will start as narrow favorites in what promises to be a tight Round 12 contest. The Giants enter with three wins from their past five outings, including a dominant 166-88 victory in their most recent match. Their scoring has fluctuated sharply, ranging from 63 to 166 points, while defensive efforts have kept opponents under 90 in three of those games. Melbourne, meanwhile, have also secured three wins in five, highlighted by a 126-72 triumph and a 120-81 result. Their attack has been more consistent, averaging above 100 points in four of the last five, though a narrow three-point loss showed vulnerability in close contests. Statistically, Melbourne hold a slight edge in overall efficiency. Their season averages sit at 93.33 points scored and 87.50 conceded, compared with the Giants’ 84.00 for and 85.17 against. Recent margins reinforce this: Melbourne’s wins have come by an average of 41.7 points, while the Giants’ victories average 33 points but are offset by two double-digit defeats. Key contributors for both sides will need to lift in the Alice Springs conditions. Melbourne’s ability to generate higher scoring outputs gives them a platform to control tempo, while the Giants will rely on their capacity for explosive quarters, as seen in several high-scoring halves this year. Betting markets have installed Melbourne as 2.5- to 4.5-point favorites across major bookmakers, with totals hovering around 181.5-183.5. Historical model edges from earlier rounds frequently highlighted value on under totals and first-half spreads when totals projected near 180, trends that align with both teams’ recent defensive showings. The line appears tight given Melbourne’s superior average margin in wins, suggesting the Demons are well placed to cover a small spread. Expect a competitive affair, but Melbourne’s higher scoring ceiling and more reliable recent margins should see them prevail by 6 to 15 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Greater Western Sydney Giants travel to face Melbourne Demons in a matchup where the approved plays shape a competitive, moderately high-scoring contest. Backing the Giants +4.5 with True 44% and Edge -6% plus the +2.5 at True 45% and Edge -5% indicates GWS stays within striking distance. The over 183.5 at True 48% and Edge -2% aligns with the Giants team total over 43.5 at True 48% and Edge -2%, pointing to both sides contributing to the scoreboard. Clayton Oliver over 31.5 disposals at True 58% and Edge 8% adds weight to Melbourne controlling possession without blowing the game open. These lines collectively reinforce a projected shape where the Giants cover the spreads and the totals hit in a balanced AFL battle.

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Clayton Oliver 31.5 DISPOSALS Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Melbourne Demons	Disposals Over	SportsBet	31.5	1.83	58.0%	8.0%	T2	2.5u	L
Over 183.5 Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Melbourne Demons	Full O/U	SportsBet	183.5	1.90	48.0%	-2.0%	T1	1u	W
Over 43.5 (Greater Western Sydney Giants) Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Melbourne Demons	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	43.5	1.86	48.0%	-2.0%	T1	1u	W
Greater Western Sydney Giants +2.5 Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Melbourne Demons	1H Spreads	Ladbrokes	2.5	1.88	45.0%	-5.0%	T1	1u	L
Greater Western Sydney Giants +4.5 Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Melbourne Demons	Full Spreads	SportsBet	4.5	1.90	44.0%	-6.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Greater Western Sydney Giants +4.5 Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Melbourne Demons	Full Spreads	SportsBet	4.5	1.90	44.0%	-6.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 183.5 Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Melbourne Demons	Full O/U	SportsBet	183.5	1.90	48.0%	-2.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Greater Western Sydney Giants +2.5 Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Melbourne Demons	1H Spreads	Ladbrokes	2.5	1.88	45.0%	-5.0%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 43.5 (Greater Western Sydney Giants) Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Melbourne Demons	1H Team Totals	SportsBet	43.5	1.86	48.0%	-2.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Clayton Oliver 31.5 DISPOSALS Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Melbourne Demons	Disposals Over	SportsBet	31.5	1.83	58.0%	8.0%	T2	2.5u	L

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

TIO Traeger Park MATCHCAST -
TIO Traeger Park MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
GWS Greater Western Sydney Giants
MEL Melbourne Demons

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Melbourne Demons — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Demons went down to the opposition by 49 points, 70 to 119. The visitors booted 19 goals to 9 while adding 5 behinds to the home side's 16. The opposition piled on the pressure after half time, kicking 10 goals to 3 in the second half. Their forward line delivered the big bags, while the opposition's best performer was a lively small forward who finished with three goals and strong involvement.

Season Story So Far

After a promising run that included two strong home wins, the side has hit a rough patch with back-to-back losses. The latest defeat exposed some structural issues but the group remains competitive in patches and will be keen to arrest the slide quickly.

Ladder Position & Differentials

The Demons sit in the middle of the pack after 12 rounds. Their points total and percentage reflect a season of inconsistent results, with scoring for and against showing they can be dangerous but also vulnerable when structure breaks down.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Defeated Richmond Tigers
Lost to Sydney Swans
Defeated West Coast Eagles
Defeated Hawthorn Hawks
Lost to Western Bulldogs

Three wins and two losses in that stretch, with the victories built on strong contested work and the defeats coming against sides that dominated clearances.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread in some tighter contests but struggled when the margin opened up. Totals have been mixed, with games often going over when the ruck contest is even and under when the opposition controls the middle.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Attacking output has relied heavily on forward pressure and quick transitions, with inside-50 numbers solid in wins. Defensively the group has been stretched at times, particularly when opponents win the contested possession battle. Max Gawn continues to provide a strong platform with his hit-out work and contested possessions.

Player Highlights

Max Gawn: Consistent ruck dominance, averaging over 20 hitouts and strong contested numbers across recent outings.
Kysaiah Pickett: Delivered bags of four and multiple goals in wins, using speed and tackling pressure to create scoring chances.
Jacob van Rooyen: Strong marking presence up forward with five goals in one home win.
Harry Sharp: Provided run and goal threat from the wing in multiple games.
Harrison Petty: Solid defensive contributions with three goals in a key win.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card leaned into the Demons covering a small line and the total staying under in the most recent outing. It missed both, and we own that one cleanly. The performance didn't match the numbers we liked on paper.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Demons return to the Melbourne Cricket Ground to face Collingwood Magpies. Expect a physical contest at the stoppages with both sides likely to push the ball forward quickly. The Demons will need strong ruck work and forward pressure to control the tempo. A high-scoring game looks likely given the venue and recent trends, so totals around the 180-plus mark could be worth watching. The spread should be tight early but the home side will look to build a buffer through the midfield.

MEL

BUL

May 24 3:15pm ·Marvel Stadium ·Round 11

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🧠 Match Preview

Melbourne Demons head to Marvel Stadium as slight favourites against the Western Bulldogs in what shapes as a crucial Round 11 contest. Both sides enter with inconsistent recent results, yet the Demons hold a clear statistical edge that could prove decisive under the roof. Melbourne’s last five outings have produced a 2-3 record, with scoring averages settling at 102 points for and 95 against. They have shown the ability to post 114-plus when finding rhythm, while keeping opponents under 100 in two of their past three wins. The Western Bulldogs, by contrast, average just 86 points scored and 93 conceded across their corresponding stretch, with three losses featuring totals under 150. The Demons’ superior offensive output (99.17 season average) against the Bulldogs’ leaky defence (allowing 93 per game) points to a mismatch in transition. Melbourne has also demonstrated better first-half control in recent high-edge betting angles, consistently covering modest spreads when favoured. The Bulldogs’ lower scoring ceiling makes them reliant on keeping games tight, yet their 87.17 points-per-game average suggests they will struggle to match Melbourne’s sustained pressure. Current betting markets list Melbourne at -3.5 to -7.5 with odds hovering around $1.88-$1.92. These lines align closely with recent margins, where the Demons have covered similar spreads in three of their past four victories. The total market sits at 189.5-191.5; given both teams’ combined averages near 186, a slight lean toward the over appears the sharper angle if Melbourne controls tempo early. Expect the Demons to dictate terms through the midfield and win most centre clearances. Their ability to stretch scores in the third quarter should create enough separation. Melbourne Demons are predicted to win by 9 to 15 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Melbourne Demons meet Western Bulldogs with projections centred on elevated ball movement. The Over 47.5 sits at 63% True probability and 1.2% Edge, pointing to extended possession phases that push total output higher. Marcus Bontempelli’s Over 26.5 disposals at 71% True and 4.1% Edge locks in the same shape, his midfield engine expected to generate repeated entries and clearances. Both approved plays converge on a high-volume contest where disposals accumulate steadily rather than through isolated moments. Western Bulldogs structure keeps Bontempelli central while Melbourne Demons allow sustained chains. The total and player prop therefore reinforce one another, confirming the projected game will exceed the median line without deviation into low-output territory.

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Marcus Bontempelli 26.5 DISPOSALS Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs	Disposals Over	SportsBet	26.5	1.85	71.0%	4.1%	T1	1u	W
Over 47.5 Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs	1Q O/U	SportsBet	47.5	1.84	63.0%	1.2%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over 47.5 Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs	1Q O/U	SportsBet	47.5	1.84	63.0%	1.2%	T1	1u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Marcus Bontempelli 26.5 DISPOSALS Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs	Disposals Over	SportsBet	26.5	1.85	71.0%	4.1%	T1	1u	W

H2H

SPREAD

O/U

Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -
Marvel Stadium MATCHCAST -	1	2	3	4	T
MEL Melbourne Demons
BUL Western Bulldogs

SCORING / TOTALS			Total

SCORING SHOTS			Total

POST GAME STORYLINE

Melbourne Demons — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The side fell short by three points, finishing with 13 goals and 12 behinds for 90 points against the opposition's 14 goals and nine behinds for 93. The contest stayed tight throughout, with the home side holding a narrow edge at three-quarter time before the visitors mounted a late surge that came up just short. Top goal scorers from the winning side included a standout forward with three majors, while the opposition's best performer was a dynamic midfielder who racked up 30 disposals and three goals.

Season Story So Far

After grinding out a narrow win the previous week, the latest result leaves the group with a mixed bag of strong attacking displays offset by a couple of tight losses. The pattern shows a side capable of putting up big scores but still searching for consistency in closing out games.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With four wins and two losses from the games tracked so far, the side sits in the middle of the pack. Points for and against reflect a competitive attack but room to tighten up defensively, keeping percentage in a respectable but not elite range.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Round 7: Defeated Richmond Tigers 126-72
Round 8: Lost to Sydney Swans 114-131
Round 9: Defeated West Coast Eagles 99-67
Round 10: Defeated Hawthorn Hawks 120-81
Round 11: Lost to Western Bulldogs 90-93

Three wins and two losses across that stretch, with the attack firing in the victories.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has covered the spread in three of the last five outings when installed as favourites, though totals have gone over more often than not in high-scoring wins. Recent close losses have kept totals betting interesting but unpredictable.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward pressure has been a strength, with multiple players contributing multiple goals and high inside-50 counts. Ruck work has provided strong service, while defensive efforts have improved in limiting opposition scoring in patches. Disposal efficiency and tackle pressure remain key focus areas.

Player Highlights

Max Gawn: Consistent ruck dominance with 18-23 hitouts and strong contested possession numbers across recent games.
Kysaiah Pickett: Explosive forward displays including 29 disposals and four goals in one outing.
Jacob van Rooyen: Reliable goal threat with bags of three and five majors in back-to-back wins.
Harry Sharp: Strong wing and half-forward contributions with multiple goals and high disposal counts.
Kade Chandler: Three-goal haul and 17 disposals in a tight victory.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed a couple of solid unit wins on the full-game spread and totals in recent Melbourne games, though the 1H plays missed narrowly. Brutally honest: the positive edges on the main lines delivered value when the side controlled the contest early.

Outlook / What to Watch

Melbourne Demons head to TIO Traeger Park to face Greater Western Sydney Giants in round 12. Expect a physical, contested style given the venue, with Melbourne likely to lean on strong ruck and midfield service to generate forward entries. The scoring outlook points to a moderate total around the 180-190 mark, while the spread looks tight with both sides capable of controlling periods. Watch for key match-ups around the contest and how Melbourne manages the heat and travel factors in what should be a grinding affair.

HAW vs MEL

May 16 4:15pm · Melbourne Cricket Ground · Round 10

Matchcast

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🧠 Match Preview

Hawthorn Hawks head to the MCG as clear favourites against Melbourne Demons in Round 10, carrying superior recent momentum into a contest that could shape both clubs’ mid-season trajectories. The Hawks arrive with four wins from their past five outings, including a dominant 40-point victory and a 49-point triumph that showcased their attacking potency. Their only blemish was a narrow loss by 15 points, underlining a side capable of controlling games when their midfield wins enough ball. Melbourne’s form has been more erratic, with three wins and two losses in the same stretch, featuring a 45-point defeat and a 17-point setback that exposed defensive vulnerabilities. Statistically, Hawthorn’s season averages of 100.22 points scored and 85.78 conceded reflect a more efficient unit than Melbourne’s 101.11 for and 97.33 against. The Hawks have posted three wins by 30-plus points in their last five, while Melbourne’s margins have swung wildly between +54 and -45, suggesting inconsistency that Hawthorn can exploit on the big stage. Key personnel battles in the engine room will decide territory and scoring opportunities, with both teams relying on established ball-winners to set the tone. Hawthorn’s ability to sustain pressure across quarters has been a hallmark of their stronger performances, while Melbourne will need to improve transition defence to avoid falling behind early. Betting markets have installed Hawthorn as 7.5-point favourites at odds around 1.87-1.90 across major bookmakers, with the total line sitting near 183.5-184.5. Previous modelling highlighted strong edges on Hawthorn first-half spreads and team totals in recent weeks, aligning with their average winning margin of 30-plus points in victories. Melbourne’s tendency to concede heavily in losses makes the under on their team total an intriguing angle, though the line has tightened. Hawthorn should prevail by 12 to 22 points in a controlled performance that capitalises on Melbourne’s defensive lapses.

✏️ Game Analysis

Hawks 1H -7.5 (Tier 2): Hawks L5 avg +20 margin, OR-4 +22.4, SEA +14 dominance vs shaky Demons (WLWWL). 1Q O45.5: Both L5 totals high (Hawks 170/SEA 186, Melb 204). 1H O90.5: SEA avgs 186/198 push 1H over. Full O184.5: Recent free-scoring form (Hawks SEA 186, Demons 204) projects blowout total.

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Jack Steele 24.5 DISPOSALS Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons	player_disposals_over	Unibet	24.5	1.97	78.0%	12.0%	T4	7.5u	W
Over Jai Newcombe 26.5 DISPOSALS Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons	player_disposals_over	SportsBet	26.5	1.85	75.0%	9.0%	T3	5u	L
Hawthorn Hawks -15.5 Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons	full_spread	TAB	-15.5	1.90	72.0%	8.0%	T2	2.5u	L
Hawthorn Hawks 1h SPREAD Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons	1h_spread	TAB	-7.5	1.90	72.0%	6.0%	T2	2.5u	L
Over Q1 Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons	1q_ou	TAB	45.5	1.90	68.0%	6.0%	T1	1u	L
Over 1h Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons	1h_ou	Neds	90.5	1.87	68.0%	4.0%	T1	1u	L
FULL Over 184.5 Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons	full_ou	TAB	184.5	1.90	68.0%	4.0%	T1	1u	W

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Over Jack Steele 24.5 DISPOSALS Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons	player_disposals_over	Unibet	24.5	1.97	78.0%	12.0%	T4	7.5u	W
Over Jai Newcombe 26.5 DISPOSALS Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons	player_disposals_over	SportsBet	26.5	1.85	75.0%	9.0%	T3	5u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Hawthorn Hawks -15.5 Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons	full_spread	TAB	-15.5	1.90	72.0%	8.0%	T2	2.5u	L

Play / Side	Market	Bookmaker	Line	Odds	True%	Edge%	Tier	Units	Result
Hawthorn Hawks 1h SPREAD Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons	1h_spread	TAB	-7.5	1.90	72.0%	6.0%	T2	2.5u	L