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Richmond Tigers 2026 Season Stats, Form & Betting Analysis

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Richmond Tigers
  BETTING STATS
TABLE 17th - 12 PTS
RESULT (W-L-D) - 22 3 - 19 - 0
POINTS 1407 FOR 2240 AGT
SCORING SHOTS -
POWER RANK -
FORM > LATEST
L
L
W
L
L

Season Story

Richmond entered the 2026 season as consistent underdogs, finishing 9-12 ATS across 21 dog starts with just three covers. Their totals record sits at 11-10, hovering near league average. As a side that rarely saw favouritism, the Tigers’ profile has been defined by heavy spreads and the need to find value in blowout or low-scoring spots. Recent form shows clear swings. The last five games produced a 2-3 ATS mark with an LLLWW sequence, indicating a sharp turnaround after three straight losses against the spread. The last ten games split evenly at 5-5 ATS and 5-5 on totals, though the O/U sequence OOUOUOOUUU points to a late lean toward unders. Momentum has been inconsistent, with wins against the spread often arriving in clusters rather than sustained runs. Quarter and half trends reveal a pattern of slow starts in several high-margin losses, particularly in rounds 2, 5 and 12 where first-quarter deficits exceeded 20 points. In contrast, games such as round 8 against West Coast showed stronger second-half finishing. Home versus away splits are limited by sample, but the Tigers have covered more frequently on the road when spreads reached 35-plus points. Standout results include the round 22 cover of +54.5 at Adelaide, where Richmond stayed within nine despite the lopsided line, and the round 11 home win over Essendon that delivered an 18-point cover. The largest overs result came in round 12 at the SCG. Current betting value lies in Richmond as large underdogs when totals sit below 175, given their recent unders lean and ability to keep games tighter than expected. They have shown they can stay competitive enough to cover inflated spreads without pushing totals over. Richmond host St Kilda in round 23 at the MCG. The Tigers arrive off a 2-3 ATS run in their last five but carry two straight covers. St Kilda’s own form suggests another wide spread, offering Richmond another opportunity to find value as dogs on the lower total.
SELECT A SEASON
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RESULT
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HM / AW
AW HM AW HM AW AW HM AW HM AW HM AW BYE HM HM AW HM AW HM AW HM AW HM AW
PTS FOR
71 60 43 48 75 55 72 99 61 73 74 56 BYE 80 48 72 72 65 52 48 84 54 45 0
PTS AGT
75 128 103 90 131 130 126 88 98 109 56 170 BYE 115 73 106 74 111 122 105 73 63 94 0
TOTAL
146 188 146 138 206 185 198 187 159 182 130 226 BYE 195 121 178 146 176 174 153 157 117 139 0
AVG FOR
71 66 58 56 59 59 61 65 65 66 66 66 BYE 67 65 66 66 66 65 64 65 65 64 0
AVG AGT
75 102 102 99 105 110 112 109 108 108 103 109 BYE 109 107 107 105 105 106 106 104 102 102 0
AVG TOTAL
146 168 160 155 164 169 173 174 173 174 169 175 BYE 176 172 173 171 171 171 170 169 167 166 0
NBA GO PRO
FOR ROUND AGT
59.4 1 - 5 105.4
72 6 - 10 110.2
64.5 11 - 15 103.5
61.8 16 - 20 103.6
61 21 - 24 76.67
63.95 SEA 101.82
57 L5 91
TOTALS
ROUND TOTAL
1 - 5 165
6 - 10 182
11 - 15 168
16 - 20 165
21 - 24 138
SEA 165.77
L5 148
SCORING
COMING SOON
AFL BOMBCARD S2
AFL GO PRO

Match by Match

STK St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers RIC
Aug 15 12:35pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 23
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2 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

St Kilda Saints head into Round 23 with a clear opportunity to consolidate their season when they meet Richmond Tigers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. The visitors have shown enough consistency across recent weeks to be installed as strong favourites, while the home side continues to search for answers after a difficult campaign. St Kilda enter the contest with a mixed but ultimately more competitive recent record. Across their past five outings they have secured two wins and three losses, producing scores of 87, 75, 93, 88 and 62. Their victories came by 14 and 31 points, underlining an ability to put teams away when opportunities arise. Richmond, by contrast, have managed just one win in their last five matches, with results of 65, 52, 48, 84 and 54. That solitary victory was by 11 points, while their four defeats included three by margins of 46 points or more. Statistically the gap is pronounced. St Kilda average 88.38 points scored and 86.95 conceded, indicating a side capable of controlling games through balanced attack and defence. Richmond’s corresponding figures of 64.86 for and 102.19 against reflect ongoing struggles at both ends of the ground. The Tigers’ recent scoring has been particularly low, failing to reach 60 points in four of their past five fixtures. Key personnel will be central for both sides. St Kilda’s midfield depth and forward options should allow them to dictate tempo, while Richmond will rely on experienced players to stem the flow and create rare forward entries. The absence of consistent scoring threats has hampered the Tigers all season, and that trend is unlikely to reverse against a well-organised opponent. Betting markets reflect the disparity, with St Kilda favoured by 22.5 points across most agencies. Richmond’s average losing margin in their past four defeats sits at 45.5 points, suggesting the line may be conservative. The total points line sits around 166.5–167.5, yet both teams’ recent scoring trends point toward a lower-scoring affair unless St Kilda establish an early lead and push the tempo. St Kilda are expected to win by 25 to 40 points. Their superior scoring average and ability to win by double-digit margins in victories should prove decisive against a Richmond side that has struggled to stay competitive in most recent outings.

✏️ Game Analysis

St Kilda Saints meet Richmond Tigers with the approved plays locked on St Kilda covering the spreads. The St Kilda Saints -9.5 at True 65% and Edge 5% sits alongside the St Kilda Saints -4.5 at True 60% and Edge 4%, both at 1.85 odds. These lines reinforce one projected game shape where St Kilda controls the contest and beats the required margins against Richmond. The higher True% on the larger spread signals the strongest conviction in St Kilda dominance, while the secondary -4.5 bet adds confirmation at solid edge. Together the two approved plays align on the same outcome, backing St Kilda to cover convincingly over the Tigers.

⚡Quarter Time Report

After the opening term at the MCG, St Kilda Saints hold a 20-10 advantage over Richmond Tigers. The Saints converted three of their four scoring shots, including two goals from Mitch Owens, while Richmond managed just one goal from five attempts and remain inaccurate in front of goal. St Kilda’s early forward pressure and cleaner ball movement have given them the edge in territory and efficiency. Richmond’s four behinds highlight ongoing issues with finishing that have plagued them all season. The 10-point margin aligns with pre-game expectations of Saints dominance, though the low total of 30 points suggests a measured start from both sides. From a betting perspective, St Kilda’s control of the first quarter positions them well for the full-game spread, while the total remains well under the 170-plus lines. Momentum sits firmly with the visitors, who look the more organised unit. With three quarters remaining, St Kilda are well placed to extend their lead through superior midfield depth and forward options. Richmond must improve their conversion rate and reduce turnovers to stay competitive. The early trend points to a continuation of St Kilda’s structured approach rather than a shootout.

Probabilities

58-65
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to St Kilda Saints -22.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
52-58
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Under 171.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
55-62
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to St Kilda Saints -10.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
48-55
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 85.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

St Kilda Saints
St Kilda Saints
under
Lean to Under 95.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
under
Lean to Under 73.5 at 1.88 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime, St Kilda Saints hold a commanding 48-23 lead over Richmond Tigers at the MCG. The visitors dominated the second quarter, booting five goals to Richmond’s two, extending what was a narrow first-quarter advantage into a 25-point buffer. St Kilda’s forward pressure and midfield control have restricted Richmond to just eight scoring shots overall. Richmond’s inability to generate consistent entries has kept their total at only 23 points, well below season averages. From a betting perspective, St Kilda’s -22.5 full-game line looks increasingly secure given the current margin and momentum. The total points line of 171.5 remains live with two quarters remaining, though scoring has slowed. Richmond’s team total under 73.5 sits in a strong position after their low first-half output. St Kilda’s 48 points already place their under 95.5 line in a favourable state. Momentum clearly favours the Saints, who have controlled tempo and territory. Expect St Kilda to maintain structure and limit Richmond’s opportunities in the second half while looking to extend their advantage further.

Probabilities

72-78
FULL GAME SPREAD
Strong lean to St Kilda Saints -22.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
48-54
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Over 171.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
65-71
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to St Kilda Saints -10.5 covering at 1.90 (TAB)
52-58
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 85.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

St Kilda Saints
St Kilda Saints
under
Strong lean to St Kilda Saints Under 95.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
under
Strong lean to Richmond Tigers Under 73.5 at 1.88 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

All Markets — 2 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
St Kilda Saints -9.5
St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers
 1H Spreads TAB -9.5 1.85 65.0% 5.0% T2 2.5u W
St Kilda Saints -4.5
St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers
 1Q Spreads TAB -4.5 1.85 60.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u W
H1 Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
St Kilda Saints -9.5
St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers
 1H Spreads TAB -9.5 1.85 65.0% 5.0% T2 2.5u W
Q1 Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
St Kilda Saints -4.5
St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers
 1Q Spreads TAB -4.5 1.85 60.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
St Kilda Saints STK St Kilda Saints
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
SCORING / TOTALS St Kilda Saints Richmond Tigers Total
SCORING SHOTS St Kilda Saints Richmond Tigers Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Richmond Tigers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The team went down 45-94, a 49-point loss. Richmond finished with 6 goals and 9 behinds while the opposition booted 14 goals and 10 behinds. The opposition’s standout kicked a bag of 5, while Richmond’s best forward haul was 2 goals.

Season Story So Far

This result caps a difficult stretch where the side has battled to find consistency. One win in the past five outings has left the group searching for momentum heading into the back end of the year.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder numbers are not yet updated, but recent results show the team sitting toward the lower end of the standings with points for and against highlighting the need for greater scoring efficiency and defensive structure.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 18: Loss to Melbourne Demons 65-111
  • Round 19: Loss to Hawthorn Hawks 52-122
  • Round 20: Loss to Western Bulldogs 48-105
  • Round 21: Win vs West Coast Eagles 84-73
  • Round 22: Loss to Adelaide Crows 54-63

Four losses and a single victory tell the story of a side still searching for rhythm.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has found it tough to cover the spread in most outings, with totals often left short as scoring output has been limited against stronger opposition.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Work rate around the contest has been solid from several veterans, with strong clearance numbers and contested possessions keeping the team in some games. Inside-50 entries have been plentiful at times, yet conversion remains an issue. Defensively, the side has struggled to limit opposition forward entries in the second halves of recent matches.

Player Highlights

  • Dion Prestia: Consistent ball-winner with 27 disposals in the latest outing and strong contested numbers across the stretch.
  • Thomas Lynch: Provided a focal point up forward, kicking multiple goals in several games and taking key marks.
  • Sam Lalor: Showed promise with 3 goals and lively midfield work in the win.
  • Seth Campbell: Kicked 3 goals and added pressure with strong tackling and forward pressure.
  • Mykelti Lefau: Reliable goal threat with 2 goals and solid inside-50 work in the most recent match.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The Match Bombcard came up short again this week. We’ll cop that one on the chin and sharpen the selections for the next round rather than overthinking it.

Outlook / What to Watch

The Richmond Tigers will look to reset and build combinations ahead of their next assignment, focusing on improved conversion and tighter defensive structure to turn recent effort into results.

RIC Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows ADE
Aug 8 7:35pm ·Adelaide Oval ·Round 22
-
2 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Adelaide Crows host Richmond Tigers at Adelaide Oval in Round 22, a contest that highlights the stark gap between a side pushing for late-season momentum and one mired in a difficult campaign. With finals positioning still fluid for the home team, the match carries clear implications for both clubs. Richmond Tigers enter with just one victory in their past five outings. Their recent margins tell a story of heavy defeats: a two-point loss, followed by defeats by 46, 70 and 57 points before a narrow 11-point win. Across those five games they have averaged 65 points scored and conceded 104, underlining both offensive struggles and defensive vulnerabilities. Adelaide Crows, by contrast, arrive in far stronger form. Four wins from five matches include victories by 25, 79, 16 and 72 points, interrupted only by a 34-point loss. Their scoring average of 93 points for and 79 against reflects a balanced attack and a defence that has restricted opponents effectively in most recent outings. Statistically the disparity is pronounced. Richmond’s season-long averages of 65.4 points scored and 104.15 conceded sit well below Adelaide’s 93.05 scored and 79.10 conceded. The visitors’ inability to keep games close has been a recurring theme, while the Crows have shown they can both post big totals and win convincingly on the road. Betting markets reflect the expected mismatch. Adelaide is favoured by 54.5 to 55.5 points with most agencies, a line that aligns closely with recent performance trends. Richmond’s average losing margin in their four defeats sits at 43.75 points, suggesting the Crows are well positioned to cover the spread. Totals markets hover around 157.5–159.5, yet Adelaide’s recent scoring output points to a game that could exceed that figure. Tactically, Adelaide will look to exploit Richmond’s defensive lapses through sustained forward pressure, while the Tigers must find a way to limit turnovers and generate more efficient entries inside 50. Without significant improvement in both areas, the contest is unlikely to stay competitive for four quarters. Adelaide Crows are expected to win by 45 to 60 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Richmond Tigers visit Adelaide Crows with the approved plays shaping a clear projection. Adelaide over 105.5 at True 85% and 9% Edge drives the outlook, pointing to the Crows building a heavy total at home. This aligns with Richmond over 13.5 at True 42% and 0% Edge, showing the Tigers will add just enough early output to clear their mark without altering the result. The lines together reinforce Adelaide controlling the contest while Richmond registers minimal resistance in the opening stages. Both plays at SportsBet odds support the same game shape, with the larger stake on Adelaide underscoring the stronger projection for their scoring dominance.

⚡Quarter Time Report

After a low-scoring opening term at Adelaide Oval, Richmond holds a narrow 14-9 lead over the Crows. The Tigers converted two of their three inside-50 entries into goals through Mykelti Lefau, while Adelaide managed just 1.3 and wasted several forward opportunities. The first quarter produced only 23 points, well below the expected pace, with both sides struggling to generate clean entries and efficient finishing. Richmond’s early accuracy gave them the edge, yet Adelaide retained the majority of territory and will expect to rectify their inaccuracy as the game opens up. From a betting perspective the pre-game line of Adelaide -55.5 remains the key reference point, and one quarter is far too early to shift that assessment. The total market at 158.5-159.5 also looks intact given the slow start. Adelaide’s superior recent form and scoring average suggest they will dominate the next three terms, but Richmond’s ability to stay within striking distance early keeps the contest alive for now. The Crows must improve their conversion rate immediately to reassert control, while the Tigers need to maintain pressure and limit turnovers to stay competitive. Expect the game to accelerate markedly from here.

Probabilities

72-80
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to Adelaide Crows -55.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)
58-65
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Over 159.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)
70-78
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Adelaide Crows -27.5 covering at 1.94 (Ladbrokes)
60-68
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 79.5 at 1.95 (TAB)

Team Totals

Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
under
Lean to Richmond Tigers Under 51.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Crows
under
Lean to Adelaide Crows Under 106.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

Adelaide Crows lead Richmond Tigers 29-28 at halftime in a surprisingly tight contest at Adelaide Oval. Despite pre-game expectations of a 45-60 point Adelaide victory, the first half produced just 57 points and remained level for long periods. Richmond matched Adelaide’s four goals and showed fight through multiple forward entries, while the Crows were wasteful with five behinds. Adelaide’s second-quarter surge (three goals in five minutes) gave them a brief buffer, but Richmond responded with two late majors to stay within one point. The low-scoring, error-strewn half suggests both teams are struggling for fluency. From a betting perspective, Adelaide’s full-game spread position remains intact given the large line, yet the Tigers have kept the margin contest alive. Totals markets sit well under the 157.5-159.5 lines after a cagey opening. Momentum slightly favours Adelaide heading into the second half, but Richmond’s ability to stay competitive longer than expected introduces variance.

Probabilities

62-72%
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to Adelaide Crows -55.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)
48-58%
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Over 158.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
58-68%
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Adelaide Crows -28.5 covering at 1.95 (TAB)
52-62%
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 79.5 at 1.95 (TAB)

Team Totals

Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Over
Lean to Over 51.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Crows
Over
Lean to Over 106.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Adelaide Crows lead Richmond Tigers 49-45 in a surprisingly tight contest at Adelaide Oval. The Crows held a narrow 29-28 advantage at half-time before Richmond exploded early in the third term with two quick goals from Seth Campbell. Adelaide responded through Callum Ah Chee and Izak Rankine to regain the lead, but the margin remains just four points. Scoring has been efficient yet low overall, with 94 points on the board after three quarters. Richmond’s forward entries have improved markedly in the second half, while Adelaide’s usually potent attack has been contained. From a betting perspective the total has already reached 94, placing the Over 159.5 line in a strong position with one quarter remaining. Adelaide’s full-game team total sits well below its 106.5-107.5 lines, yet the Crows remain heavy favourites to cover the 55.5-point spread. Momentum slightly favours the home side, but the narrow margin keeps the contest alive heading into the final term.

Probabilities

62-68
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to Adelaide Crows -55.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)
78-84
FULL GAME TOTAL
Strong lean to Over 159.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)
58-64
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Adelaide Crows -28.5 covering at 1.95 (TAB)
65-71
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 79.5 at 1.95 (TAB)

Team Totals

Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Under
Lean to Richmond Tigers Under 51.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Crows
Over
Lean to Adelaide Crows Over 106.5 at 2.11 (implied from 1.89 Under SportsBet)
All Markets — 2 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 3.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 105.5 (Adelaide Crows)
Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 105.5 1.87 85.0% 9.0% T2 2.5u L
Over 13.5 (Richmond Tigers)
Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows
 1Q Team Totals SportsBet 13.5 1.96 42.0% 0.0% T1 1u W
Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 105.5 (Adelaide Crows)
Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 105.5 1.87 85.0% 9.0% T2 2.5u L
Q1 Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 13.5 (Richmond Tigers)
Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows
 1Q Team Totals SportsBet 13.5 1.96 42.0% 0.0% T1 1u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Adelaide Oval
MATCHCAST
-
  Adelaide Oval
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
Adelaide Crows ADE Adelaide Crows
SCORING / TOTALS Richmond Tigers Adelaide Crows Total
SCORING SHOTS Richmond Tigers Adelaide Crows Total
AFL BOMBCARD S1
POST GAME STORYLINE

Richmond Tigers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The side fell short by nine points, finishing with 7.12 (54) after the opposition posted 9.9 (63). They managed to stay competitive through three quarters but were outscored in the final term. Seth Campbell kicked three goals while Mykelti Lefau added two, with the opposition's top performer finishing with two majors.

Season Story So Far

The latest narrow loss caps a difficult stretch where the side has struggled to put together consistent four-quarter performances. A lone win in the past six outings has kept some positives alive, but heavy defeats have exposed areas needing immediate attention heading into the final weeks.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With no ladder data available, the numbers from recent matches tell the story: 54 points scored against 63 conceded in the latest outing, continuing a season where points against have far outpaced points for across most fixtures.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 18: lost to Melbourne Demons 65-111
  • Round 19: lost to Hawthorn Hawks 52-122
  • Round 20: lost to Western Bulldogs 48-105
  • Round 21: defeated West Coast Eagles 84-73
  • Round 22: lost to Adelaide Crows 54-63

One win from five highlights the inconsistency that has defined the run home.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has been consistently unders on the total in recent weeks, with low-scoring outputs making it hard to cover spreads when the opposition gets on top early. The sole win came with a comfortable margin but has not shifted the overall trend of games finishing below expected totals.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been limited and often ineffective, with disposal counts from key midfielders not translating into scoring opportunities. Tackle pressure has been solid at times but the inability to convert clearances into points has been a recurring issue across the past month.

Player Highlights

  • Seth Campbell: Three goals and 12 disposals in the latest outing, showing strong forward pressure.
  • Mykelti Lefau: Two goals and four tackles, working hard in the forward half.
  • Dion Prestia: 15 disposals and three clearances, providing some midfield drive.
  • Sam Lalor: Three goals from 13 disposals in a standout forward display.
  • Thomas Lynch: Two goals and 20 disposals, contributing across multiple roles.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The Match Bombcard selections missed the mark across the past fortnight with no positive returns on the recommended plays. Brutal honesty here: the card got the margins and totals wrong and needs a reset before any further recommendations.

Outlook / What to Watch

Richmond Tigers will need to tighten their defensive structure and improve conversion if they are to compete in the remaining fixtures. Expect a focus on contested ball and reducing turnovers to give the forwards cleaner looks at goal.

WCE West Coast Eagles vs Richmond Tigers RIC
Aug 2 1:10pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 21
-
1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

West Coast Eagles head into their Round 21 clash with Richmond Tigers at the MCG carrying the heavier recent scoring load, yet both sides arrive on extended losing streaks that have exposed clear defensive frailties. The Eagles have averaged 70.63 points scored and 100.74 conceded across their last five outings, while Richmond sit at 64.42 for and 105.79 against. Those numbers frame a contest between two struggling attacks searching for answers on a neutral venue. West Coast’s recent margins tell a story of inconsistency rather than outright collapse. Their losses have come by 53, 25, 16, 24 and 70 points, producing an average defeat of 37.6 points. Richmond’s corresponding figures—34, 2, 46, 70 and 57—yield a slightly worse average of 41.8 points. The Tigers have shown an occasional ability to stay close, most notably in a two-point loss, but their scoring output has dipped sharply in three of the past five games. Statistically the Eagles hold a modest edge in both offensive volume and defensive containment. Their 70-plus points per game average exceeds Richmond’s by more than six points, while they have also limited opponents to fewer than 101 points on average. Richmond’s attack has managed 65 or fewer in three of its last five matches, a trend that will test their ability to capitalise on any West Coast turnovers at the MCG. With no standout individual data available, the contest will likely hinge on which side can better manage contested possession and limit turnovers inside their defensive arcs. Both teams have conceded heavily in the second halves of recent matches, suggesting the middle two quarters could decide the outcome. Betting markets have installed West Coast as marginal favourites at -1.5, with most books offering 1.88–1.90 either side of the line. The total sits at 167.5, roughly in line with the combined recent averages of both sides. Given West Coast’s slightly superior scoring rate and smaller average losing margin, the Eagles appear the more likely side to cover the narrow spread. Richmond’s occasional low-scoring outputs increase the risk they fall short of the total line. Expect West Coast to prevail by 12 to 22 points in a low-to-mid 160s total.

✏️ Game Analysis

West Coast Eagles meet Richmond Tigers at the MCG with the approved play locked on over 41.5 for the West Coast Eagles team total. This line at true 42 percent and edge negative 2.5 percent on odds 1.83 through SportsBet sets the projected game shape. The call expects West Coast to clear the total through sustained forward entries and scoring shots that exceed the benchmark. Richmond Tigers feature only as the opponent in this setup, with no additional sides or props approved. The single team-total angle therefore defines the entire contest outlook, directing attention to whether the Eagles reach the required output without reliance on any other market.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Richmond Tigers lead West Coast Eagles 28-19 at the first change after a high-scoring opening term that produced 47 points. The Tigers converted four goals to two, with Hugo Ralphsmith, Jayden Short, Jack Ross and Sam Lalor all finding the big sticks while West Coast managed only behinds until late. Momentum sits clearly with Richmond, who controlled the majority of the first-quarter territory and converted opportunities efficiently. West Coast’s early behind rush (seven behinds) highlighted their inaccuracy in front of goal. From a betting perspective the first-quarter total has already cleared most 40.5-42.5 lines, confirming an uptrend in scoring pace. Full-game totals around 167.5-168.5 remain live, yet the early tempo suggests the over retains value. Richmond’s +4.5 spread position is also comfortable after quarter one. West Coast will need to improve their conversion rate and reduce turnovers to stay in the contest. With three quarters remaining, the Tigers hold a slight edge in both scoreboard pressure and current form. Expect the second quarter to be tighter as West Coast adjust, but Richmond’s early confidence gives them the platform to extend their advantage.

Probabilities

52-58
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to Richmond Tigers +4.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
55-61
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Over 167.5 at 1.90 (Dabble AU)
48-54
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Richmond Tigers +2.5 covering at 1.88 (Neds)
53-59
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 84.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

West Coast Eagles
West Coast Eagles
under
Lean to Under 85.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
under
Lean to Under 81.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

Richmond holds a 46-31 halftime lead after a dominant opening half at the MCG. The Tigers converted seven goals to three, while West Coast’s 13 behinds highlighted poor finishing despite early pressure. Richmond’s midfield control and cleaner entries allowed them to build a 15-point buffer, with Tim Taranto and Hugo Ralphsmith providing key contributions. West Coast generated volume but lacked efficiency inside 50. The low-scoring first half (77 combined) sits well below the 165-168.5 totals lines, setting up a likely scoring increase. From a betting view, Richmond’s +4.5 and +2.5 halftime spreads look well positioned, while the full-game total has strong over momentum. West Coast must improve conversion and reduce turnovers to stay competitive, but Richmond’s structure suggests they can extend their advantage in the second half.

Probabilities

68-74%
FULL GAME SPREAD
Strong lean to Richmond Tigers +4.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
71-77%
FULL GAME TOTAL
Strong lean to Over 168.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
62-68%
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Richmond Tigers +2.5 covering at 1.88 (Neds)
59-65%
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 84.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

West Coast Eagles
West Coast Eagles
Under
Lean to West Coast Eagles Under 85.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Over
Lean to Richmond Tigers Over 81.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Richmond holds a 60-48 lead at three-quarter time after a scrappy, low-scoring third term that produced just four goals. The Tigers extended their halftime advantage of 15 points by adding 14 points to West Coast’s 17, with goals to Sonsie and Lalor offsetting a barrage of behinds from the Eagles. West Coast’s inefficiency in front of goal (5.18) has kept Richmond in control despite the Eagles generating opportunities. The contest has been characterised by contested ball and turnovers, with neither side able to establish sustained dominance. From a betting perspective the total has moved to 108 points, leaving the Over 168.5 line very much alive with one quarter remaining. Richmond’s 60 already exceeds several full-game team total unders, placing those lines under extreme pressure. West Coast’s 48 points also positions them to comfortably clear their corresponding unders. With both teams averaging over 30 points per quarter in recent outings, the final term is expected to push the aggregate well into the 160s. Richmond’s 12-point buffer gives them the inside track on the narrow spread, though West Coast remain within striking distance if they can convert chances.

Probabilities

62-72
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to Richmond Tigers +4.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
78-86
FULL GAME TOTAL
Very Strong lean to Over 168.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
58-68
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Richmond Tigers +2.5 covering at 1.88 (Neds)
72-80
2ND HALF TOTAL
Strong lean to Over 84.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

West Coast Eagles
West Coast Eagles
over
Very Strong lean to West Coast Eagles Over 85.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
over
Extremely Strong lean to Richmond Tigers Over 81.5 at 1.84 (SportsBet)
All Markets — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 41.5 (West Coast Eagles)
West Coast Eagles vs Richmond Tigers
 1H Team Totals SportsBet 41.5 1.83 42.0% -2.5% T1 1u L
H1 Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 41.5 (West Coast Eagles)
West Coast Eagles vs Richmond Tigers
 1H Team Totals SportsBet 41.5 1.83 42.0% -2.5% T1 1u L
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
West Coast Eagles WCE West Coast Eagles
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
SCORING / TOTALS West Coast Eagles Richmond Tigers Total
SCORING SHOTS West Coast Eagles Richmond Tigers Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Richmond Tigers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

Richmond finished 12.12 (84) to the opposition's 9.19 (73), winning by 11 points at the MCG. The side led at every change, kicking 4.4 to 2.6 in the first term before extending the advantage with a 3.0 to 1.7 second quarter. A tight third term saw them add 2.2 to the visitors' 2.5, then close it out with 3.6 to 4.1. Sam Lalor booted three goals while Thomas Lynch added two majors in a strong forward display. The opposition's best performer was Jake Waterman with two goals and strong marking.

Season Story So Far

A string of heavy defeats had left the campaign in a difficult spot, but the latest result delivered a much-needed lift. The win came after five straight losses and showed improved efficiency in front of goal along with better contested ball work in the second half.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Current ladder data is not available in the provided statistics. Points, percentage and points for/against figures cannot be confirmed from the records supplied.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 16: Lost to Collingwood Magpies
  • Round 17: Lost to Carlton Blues
  • Round 18: Lost to Melbourne Demons
  • Round 19: Lost to Hawthorn Hawks
  • Round 20: Lost to Western Bulldogs

Five consecutive defeats preceded the most recent victory.

Betting Trends & Performance

No betting data or trends are available in the supplied records, so spread and totals performance cannot be assessed.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries and contested possessions have been areas of focus, with several players regularly exceeding 20 disposals. Tackle counts have varied but the midfield has shown willingness to apply pressure. Forward entries have relied on a small number of contributors, while defensive efforts have struggled to limit opposition scoring shots in recent outings.

Player Highlights

  • Dion Prestia: Consistent ball-winner across multiple games, regularly recording 16-25 disposals and strong clearance numbers.
  • Thomas Lynch: Provided focal point up forward with multiple games over 100 minutes and several goal contributions.
  • Sam Lalor: Stood out in the latest win with three goals and solid work rate.
  • Rhyan Mansell: Showed speed and goal threat in several matches, including bags of three and two goals.
  • Noah Balta: Strong marking presence when forward, recording five contested marks in one outing.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No Match Bombcard or betting performance data was provided, so there is nothing to review or critique.

Outlook / What to Watch

Richmond will look to build on the recent MCG victory by maintaining improved second-half intensity and better conversion in attack. The focus remains on contested ball and reducing opposition inside-50 entries as the side prepares for its next assignment.

RIC Richmond Tigers vs Western Bulldogs BUL
Jul 25 7:40pm ·Marvel Stadium ·Round 20
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🧠 Match Preview

Richmond Tigers head to Marvel Stadium in Round 20 facing a daunting assignment against the Western Bulldogs, with the home side heavily favoured to extend their recent advantage. The Tigers enter the contest on the back of five straight defeats and will need a marked improvement to challenge a Bulldogs outfit that has shown greater consistency in both attack and defence. Richmond’s recent form has been concerning, with the side conceding heavy scores in most outings. Their last five matches have produced results of 48-73, 72-106, 72-74, 65-111 and 52-122, leaving them with an average losing margin of 35.4 points. Scoring has been limited, averaging just 65.33 points per game while conceding 105.83. The pattern suggests structural issues both in transitioning the ball forward and containing opposition momentum. In contrast, the Western Bulldogs have recorded three wins from their past five outings, posting scores of 64-121, 83-61, 55-90, 86-70 and 77-68. Their average points for sits at 82.67 with 88.72 conceded, reflecting a more balanced performance. While two of those results were losses, the margins were mixed and the side has shown an ability to post competitive totals when playing with structure. Statistically the gap is clear. Richmond’s low scoring output combined with porous defence has seen them struggle to stay competitive for four quarters. The Bulldogs, by comparison, generate enough forward entries to build respectable scores and have demonstrated the capacity to restrict opponents below 90 points in three of their last five matches. From a betting perspective, the line has settled at Western Bulldogs -41.5. Given Richmond’s average losing margin of 35.4 points across their current skid, the Bulldogs have a strong case to cover. Their recent wins have come by 22, 16 and 9 points, while even in defeat they have remained within striking distance at times. The total market sits around 170.5; with Richmond’s low output likely to keep the scoreboard in check, the under could prove attractive if the Bulldogs control possession. Expect the Western Bulldogs to dictate terms at Marvel Stadium. Their superior scoring average and more reliable defensive structure should see them secure a comfortable victory, with a predicted margin of 42 to 52 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Richmond Tigers travel to face Western Bulldogs with the home side holding clear advantages in recent form and percentage. Bulldogs enter with WWLWL and 93.17 percent compared to Richmond's LLLLL and 61.73 percent. The approved Western Bulldogs -39.5 spread at SportsBet carries a True 82 percent probability and 10 percent edge. This line projects a substantial margin victory for the Bulldogs, aligning with their superior standing and home venue support. Bettors backing this play anticipate the Bulldogs controlling the contest from the outset, covering the spread comfortably given the form disparity. The 1u stake on this selection reflects high confidence in a lopsided outcome at 19:40 AEST bounce-down.

⚡Quarter Time Report

⚡Halftime Report

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time, the Western Bulldogs hold a commanding 73-35 lead over the Richmond Tigers at Marvel Stadium. The Bulldogs asserted dominance after quarter time, adding 27 points in the second term and another 27 in the third while restricting Richmond to just 20 points across those periods. Aaron Naughton, Rhylee West and Cody Weightman have been influential in attack, while Richmond’s forward entries have been limited and inefficient. The Tigers’ scoring has been restricted to 5 goals and 5 behinds, underlining their ongoing struggles with structure and transition. From a betting perspective, the Bulldogs are well positioned on the spread. The full-game total sits at 175.5, with the current combined score of 108 leaving room for a moderate final quarter. Richmond’s low output keeps the under in play but momentum favours the home side extending their advantage. The Bulldogs have the clearer path to dictate terms in the final term, while Richmond must improve markedly to avoid another heavy defeat.

Probabilities

72-78
FULL GAME SPREAD
Strong lean to Western Bulldogs -40.5 covering at 1.90 (SportsBet)
58-64
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Over 175.5 at 1.93 (SportsBet)
68-74
2ND HALF SPREAD
Strong lean to Western Bulldogs -20.5 covering at 1.91 (Neds)
55-61
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 87.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Under
Very Strong lean to Richmond Tigers Under 66.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)
Western Bulldogs
Western Bulldogs
Over
Strong lean to Western Bulldogs Over 107.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
All Markets — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Western Bulldogs -39.5
Richmond Tigers vs Western Bulldogs
 Full Spreads SportsBet -39.5 1.91 82.0% 10.0% T1 1u W
Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Western Bulldogs -39.5
Richmond Tigers vs Western Bulldogs
 Full Spreads SportsBet -39.5 1.91 82.0% 10.0% T1 1u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Marvel Stadium
MATCHCAST
-
  Marvel Stadium
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
Western Bulldogs BUL Western Bulldogs
SCORING / TOTALS Richmond Tigers Western Bulldogs Total
SCORING SHOTS Richmond Tigers Western Bulldogs Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Richmond Tigers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Tigers fell to a 57-point defeat, finishing with 7 goals and 6 behinds for 48 points against the opposition’s 15 goals and 15 behinds for 105. The visitors started evenly but were outscored heavily after half time, managing just 33 points in the second half while the opposition piled on 59. Noah Balta and Thomas Lynch each kicked two goals for the Tigers, while the opposition’s best performer was Cody Weightman with two goals and strong forward pressure.

Season Story So Far

The latest result continues a difficult run where the side has struggled to match the output of stronger opposition. Five straight losses have exposed areas in both attack and defence, with the team often competitive early before being overrun in the second half of games.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With no points accumulated from the last five outings, the Tigers sit near the bottom of the ladder. Their percentage remains low after conceding heavy scores, with points against far outstripping points for across the recent stretch.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 15: Lost to North Melbourne Kangaroos 48-73
  • Round 16: Lost to Collingwood Magpies 72-106
  • Round 17: Lost to Carlton Blues 72-74
  • Round 18: Lost to Melbourne Demons 65-111
  • Round 19: Lost to Hawthorn Hawks 52-122

Five consecutive defeats have left the group searching for answers heading into the back half of the season.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Tigers have consistently gone under the total in recent weeks as their scoring output has dropped. They have also failed to cover the spread in each of the last five games, with margins often larger than expected once the opposition gains momentum.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been limited and conversion remains an issue, with the side often relying on a small number of players to generate scoring opportunities. Defensively, contested possessions have been won at a lower rate, allowing opponents too much space around the contest and on the outside.

Player Highlights

  • Dion Prestia: Averaged over 20 disposals across the stretch with strong contested ball wins.
  • Noah Balta: Provided a target up forward, kicking multiple goals in two of the last three outings.
  • Thomas Lynch: Led the goalkicking in the most recent match with two majors.
  • Rhyan Mansell: Showed dash from half-back and contributed goals in round 17.
  • Toby Nankervis: Dominated hitouts in the ruck, providing first-use on several occasions.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No active betting card was recorded for the latest round, so there are no results to review. The focus remains on building consistency rather than chasing speculative angles.

Outlook / What to Watch

With the next opponent still to be confirmed, the Tigers will look to tighten their defensive structure and improve second-half output. Expect a focus on contested ball and reducing turnovers as they prepare for the next assignment.

HAW Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers RIC
Jul 19 1:10pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 19
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🧠 Match Preview

Hawthorn Hawks travel to the MCG to meet Richmond Tigers in round 19, a contest that looks heavily one-sided on current form. The visitors enter with genuine momentum while the home side continues to struggle across every key performance indicator. Hawthorn have secured three wins from their past five outings, mixing a narrow loss by six points with a 35-point defeat but also posting victories by 16, 14 and 64 points. Their scoring has been consistent, averaging 97 points for and 85 against across the stretch. Richmond, by contrast, have lost all five of their most recent matches by margins of 35, 25, 34, two and 46 points, managing just 66 points per game while conceding almost 105. The statistical gap is stark. Hawthorn’s season-long averages of 97.1 points scored and 85 conceded reflect a balanced, efficient attack that regularly controls games after quarter time. Richmond’s corresponding figures of 66.1 and 104.9 highlight persistent issues at both ends of the ground, with the Tigers unable to sustain pressure or limit opposition scoring bursts. Key personnel will be critical. Hawthorn’s midfield depth and forward-line options have repeatedly created scoreboard pressure in the second half, while Richmond’s defensive structures have been repeatedly exposed, allowing opponents to kick multiple goals in short bursts. Betting markets have installed Hawthorn as 50.5- to 51.5-point favourites. That line aligns closely with the average margin of victory in Hawthorn’s three wins (31 points) and sits well below the 64-point thrashing they handed out in their most recent outing. Richmond’s average losing margin of 28.4 points across their past five games suggests they are unlikely to keep the margin inside the quoted spread. Expect Hawthorn to dictate terms from the opening bounce and finish with a comfortable victory. A final margin of 45 to 55 points appears the most probable outcome.

✏️ Game Analysis

Hawthorn Hawks versus Richmond Tigers opens with clear favoritism toward the visitors on the spread. The Hawthorn Hawks -12.5 line at 72% True and 6% Edge projects decisive control and a comfortable margin. This aligns directly with the Over 55.5 on Hawthorn Hawks at 55% True and 2% Edge, pointing to strong first-half output from the away side. At the same time the Under 63.5 for Richmond Tigers at 62% True and 5% Edge keeps the home team total suppressed. Together the three plays reinforce one projected shape: Hawthorn covers the margin while its team total clears and Richmond stays well under its cap across the match at SportsBet and TAB.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Hawthorn Hawks have asserted total control after the opening term at the MCG, leading Richmond 34-5 following a devastating five-goal burst. The visitors kicked four of those majors inside the first 24 minutes, with Mitch Lewis and Nick Watson each finishing with two goals. Richmond managed only behinds and looked disjointed in transition, unable to generate any meaningful forward entries. Scoring was restricted to 39 points in total, well under most Q1 totals lines yet reflective of Hawthorn’s suffocating pressure. The 29-point margin already exceeds the -12.5 to -13.5 Q1 spreads widely available, signalling early momentum that aligns with pre-game expectations of a 45-55 point final margin. From both a football and betting lens, the first-quarter dominance suggests Hawthorn will continue to dictate terms through the midfield and forward line. Richmond’s inability to score a goal leaves them with an enormous task to stay competitive on the spread or keep the game total under control.

Probabilities

62-68%
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -51.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
55-61%
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Over 182.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
58-64%
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -26.5 covering at 1.95 (TAB)
53-59%
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 90.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks Over 116.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Under
Lean to Richmond Tigers Under 64.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Richmond trail 18-81 after a one-sided opening half at the MCG. Hawthorn have controlled every phase, booting 12 goals to two while restricting the Tigers to just six behinds. The 63-point margin already exceeds the full-game spread of 51.5 points, placing Hawthorn in a dominant position. Momentum sits firmly with the visitors, who have kicked multiple goals in bursts and limited Richmond to minimal forward entries. Scoring has been efficient, with Mitch Lewis and Nick Watson combining for seven goals. From a betting lens the game has broken early. Hawthorn’s 81 points already place them on a trajectory well above most team-total lines around 116.5, while the combined total of 99 sits comfortably under the 182.5 line yet projects to push higher given the current rate. Richmond’s inability to generate scoring or defensive pressure suggests the second half will follow a similar pattern unless significant adjustments occur.

Probabilities

82-88%
FULL GAME SPREAD
Very Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -51.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
68-74%
FULL GAME TOTAL
Strong lean to Over 182.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
62-68%
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Hawthorn Hawks -26.5 covering at 1.95 (TAB)
58-64%
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 90.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Strong lean to Over 116.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Under
Strong lean to Under 64.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Hawthorn Hawks have produced a ruthless three-quarter demolition of Richmond at the MCG, leading 107-29 after a 26-point third term. The 78-point margin already exceeds the full-game spread line of 51.5 and leaves Richmond with virtually no mathematical path back. Hawthorn’s forward pressure, led by Mitch Lewis and Nick Watson, has repeatedly exposed Richmond’s porous defence, while the Tigers have managed just three goals for the match. Scoring momentum sits firmly with the visitors, who have added 26 points in each of the last two quarters. From a betting perspective the result is functionally decided. The full-game total of 136 remains well short of the 182.5 line, but the spread market has long been decided in Hawthorn’s favour. Richmond’s inability to score or defend suggests the final margin will finish between 80 and 100 points. With one quarter remaining, the only remaining question is how large Hawthorn choose to win by.

Probabilities

96-99
FULL GAME SPREAD
Extremely Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -51.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
65-72
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Under 182.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
88-94
2ND HALF SPREAD
Very Strong lean to Hawthorn Hawks -25.5 covering at 1.92 (Neds)
60-68
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Under 90.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn Hawks
Over
Strong lean to Over 115.5 at 1.85 (Unibet)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Under
Very Strong lean to Under 64.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
All Markets — 3 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 6u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -12.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers
 1Q Spreads TAB -12.5 1.90 72.0% 6.0% T2 2.5u W
Under 63.5 (Richmond Tigers)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 63.5 1.82 62.0% 5.0% T2 2.5u W
Over 55.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers
 1H Team Totals SportsBet 55.5 1.88 55.0% 2.0% T1 1u W
Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 63.5 (Richmond Tigers)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 63.5 1.82 62.0% 5.0% T2 2.5u W
H1 Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 55.5 (Hawthorn Hawks)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers
 1H Team Totals SportsBet 55.5 1.88 55.0% 2.0% T1 1u W
Q1 Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Hawthorn Hawks -12.5
Hawthorn Hawks vs Richmond Tigers
 1Q Spreads TAB -12.5 1.90 72.0% 6.0% T2 2.5u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
Hawthorn Hawks HAW Hawthorn Hawks
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
SCORING / TOTALS Hawthorn Hawks Richmond Tigers Total
SCORING SHOTS Hawthorn Hawks Richmond Tigers Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Richmond Tigers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Tigers fell to a 70-point defeat, finishing with 6 goals and 16 behinds for 52 points against the visitors' 18 goals and 14 behinds for 122. The game was tight early but the opposition pulled away decisively after half time with a dominant third term. Jasper Alger and Thomas Lynch kicked two goals each for the Tigers.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a challenging run of form where the side has struggled to maintain momentum across four quarters. Early promise in patches has been undone by periods of inaccuracy and turnovers that have allowed opponents to build big leads.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With limited ladder data available the Tigers sit outside the top eight on points and percentage. Their points for and against differential reflects a season of heavy defeats that have impacted overall standing and highlighted areas needing urgent improvement.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 19: Richmond Tigers 52 def by Hawthorn Hawks 122
  • Round 18: Richmond Tigers 65 def by Melbourne Demons 111
  • Round 17: Richmond Tigers 72 def by Carlton Blues 74
  • Round 16: Richmond Tigers 72 def by Collingwood Magpies 106
  • Round 15: Richmond Tigers 48 def by North Melbourne Kangaroos 73

Five straight losses have left the group searching for answers heading into the back half of the year.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has consistently gone under the total in recent outings while also failing to cover the spread. Heavy defeats have made it difficult to find value on the plus side of the line.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been plentiful at times but conversion remains an issue. The midfield has worked hard for clearances yet the defensive structure has been stretched, allowing opposition forwards too much space and easy scoring opportunities. Tackle pressure has been inconsistent across the ground.

Player Highlights

  • Tim Taranto: Strong ball winner with 29 disposals and two goals in the most recent home game.
  • Dion Prestia: Consistent performer across the midfield, averaging over 20 disposals in the last five outings.
  • Jasper Alger: Leading the forward line with multiple bags including four goals in round 14.
  • Noah Balta: Providing drive from the back half with strong contested marking and rebound.
  • Toby Nankervis: Dominant in the ruck with high hit-out numbers and clearance work.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The Match Bombcard selections missed the mark across the last round with the heavy defeat making it tough to land any value. We own the miss and will look to reset with more conservative plays next time around.

Outlook / What to Watch

Richmond will need to tighten their defensive structure and improve forward efficiency if they are to compete in the next outing. Expect a focus on contested ball and reducing turnovers at the MCG to keep the contest alive for longer periods.

RIC Richmond Tigers vs Melbourne Demons MEL
Jul 12 3:15pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 18
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1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Richmond Tigers head to the MCG for Round 18 hoping to arrest a dismal run of form against Melbourne Demons. With both sides separated by more than 30 points on the ladder, the contest carries significant implications for the home side’s push toward September. Richmond enter the match on a five-game losing streak. Their last five outings have produced scores of 56, 80, 48, 72 and 72 points, yielding an average of just 66.19 points per game while conceding 104.50. The Tigers have been outscored by an average margin of 42 points across those defeats, with only one contest decided by fewer than 25 points. Melbourne’s recent record is more promising. Three wins from five games have seen them average 97.19 points scored and 91.44 conceded. Their scoring output has been markedly higher than Richmond’s, and they have shown the capacity to put teams away when establishing leads, as evidenced by a 45-point victory and a 35-point win in their most recent successes. Statistically the gap is stark. Richmond’s season-long averages sit at 66.19 for and 104.50 against, while Melbourne sit comfortably above 97 points scored and below 92 conceded. The Demons have also played at a higher average total (188) compared with Richmond’s 171, suggesting they generate more scoring opportunities. Betting markets reflect the disparity. Melbourne are favoured at -41.5 on the line with totals hovering around 173. Richmond’s recent margins indicate they have rarely kept games within 40 points, while Melbourne’s three wins have come by an average of 29 points. The total line looks reachable given Melbourne’s offensive output, though Richmond’s low-scoring games may keep the game under if the Demons control possession. Expect Melbourne Demons to dictate terms and win by 35 to 50 points.

✏️ Game Analysis

Melbourne Demons host Richmond Tigers with a clear home percentage edge against Richmond's poor recent results and low percentage. The approved Over 52.5 team total on Melbourne Demons captures this shape at true 65% probability and 3% edge. That line projects the Demons to control territory and post well above the mark, exploiting Richmond's vulnerabilities. At 1.9 odds the TAB price offers value because the metrics align on Melbourne exceeding 52.5. Bettors taking the 2.5 units reinforce the same projected game shape where the home side dominates scoring and Richmond struggles to match output. The edge stays live as long as Melbourne maintains its percentage advantage.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Melbourne Demons lead Richmond Tigers 32-20 at quarter time after a high-scoring opening term at the MCG. The Demons kicked five goals to three, establishing a 12-point advantage through efficient forward entries and strong marking from Jacob van Rooyen and Jake Melksham. Richmond showed brief promise with goals from Tim Taranto, Zane Peucker and Toby Nankervis but were wasteful with their opportunities. The 52-point quarter total already exceeds most Q1 overs lines, signalling an open contest early. Melbourne’s defensive structure has restricted Richmond’s ball movement, while the Demons have capitalised on turnovers. From a betting perspective, Melbourne’s -10.5 and -23.5 Q1 spreads are live, though the full-game line of -40.5 remains the primary focus. Richmond’s low-scoring season form suggests they will struggle to bridge the gap without significant improvement in the second quarter. The total game line around 170.5 looks reachable given the early tempo. Momentum sits with the home side, who have controlled territory and inside-50 entries. Expect Melbourne to extend their lead through better ball use and superior fitness across the remaining three quarters.

Probabilities

52-58
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to Melbourne Demons -40.5 covering at 1.90 (PlayUp)
48-55
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Over 170.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
55-62
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Melbourne Demons -20.5 covering at 1.91 (Neds)
50-57
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 84.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Over
Lean to Over 64.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
Melbourne Demons
Melbourne Demons
Over
Lean to Over 105.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Melbourne lead Richmond 63-29 after a dominant opening half at the MCG. The Demons kicked nine goals to four and restricted the Tigers to just five behinds, establishing a 34-point buffer. Melbourne’s forward entries have been clinical, with Jacob van Rooyen and Jake Melksham combining for five goals, while Richmond’s ball movement has been stifled by Melbourne’s pressure. Scoring has been efficient rather than explosive, with the total sitting at 92. The Demons have already cleared several team-total lines and look poised to extend their advantage. Richmond’s five-game losing streak continues to manifest in poor conversion and limited inside-50 entries. From a betting perspective the margin has opened significantly, yet the second half remains the key variable. Melbourne’s control of territory and stoppages suggests they will dictate terms again after the break. Richmond must improve disposal efficiency or risk another heavy defeat. The total line remains live but the Demons’ scoring rate points to further accumulation.

Probabilities

72-78
FULL GAME SPREAD
Strong lean to Melbourne Demons -40.5 covering at 1.90 (PlayUp)
68-74
FULL GAME TOTAL
Strong lean to Over 170.5 at 1.91 (SportsBet)
61-67
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Melbourne Demons -16.5 covering at 1.56 (Unibet)
59-65
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 84.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Over
Very Strong lean to Over 63.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)
Melbourne Demons
Melbourne Demons
Over
Strong lean to Over 110.5 at 1.65 (Unibet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Melbourne Demons hold a commanding 83-40 lead at three-quarter time after a dominant first half (63-29) and a controlled third term. The Demons have won the midfield battle decisively, with Jacob van Rooyen (four goals) and Jake Melksham providing constant threat inside 50. Richmond have managed just 11 scoring shots and remain starved of territory, adding only 11 points after half-time. Momentum sits firmly with Melbourne, who have restricted the Tigers to their lowest three-quarter output of the season. From a betting lens, Melbourne’s 43-point margin has already eclipsed the -40.5 and -41.5 lines, while the total sits well under 170.5. Richmond’s full-game team total has also passed several under lines. With one quarter remaining, the Demons are well placed to extend their advantage and push the margin beyond 50 points.

Probabilities

78-86
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to Melbourne Demons -40.5 covering at 1.90 (PlayUp)
72-80
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Under 170.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)
65-73
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Melbourne Demons -20.5 covering at 1.91 (Neds)
68-76
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Under 84.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
under
Very Strong lean to Richmond Tigers Under 64.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
Melbourne Demons
Melbourne Demons
over
Very Strong lean to Melbourne Demons Over 105.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
All Markets — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 52.5 (Melbourne Demons)
Richmond Tigers vs Melbourne Demons
 1H Team Totals TAB 52.5 1.90 65.0% 3.0% T2 2.5u W
H1 Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 52.5 (Melbourne Demons)
Richmond Tigers vs Melbourne Demons
 1H Team Totals TAB 52.5 1.90 65.0% 3.0% T2 2.5u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
Melbourne Demons MEL Melbourne Demons
SCORING / TOTALS Richmond Tigers Melbourne Demons Total
SCORING SHOTS Richmond Tigers Melbourne Demons Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Richmond Tigers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Tigers fell to a 46-point defeat, finishing with 9 goals and 11 behinds for 65 points against the opposition's 16 goals and 15 behinds for 111. The visitors started competitively but were overrun after half time as the opposition piled on nine goals to four. Jasper Alger and Toby Nankervis each kicked two goals for the Tigers, while the opposition's standout forward finished with a bag of six.

Season Story So Far

Five straight losses have left the Tigers searching for answers. Heavy defeats have been followed by tighter contests, yet the side has been unable to secure a win. The latest result continues a pattern of second-half fade-outs that have defined recent weeks.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With no ladder data available the picture remains unclear, but the run of results shows a side struggling for consistency. Points for and against reflect a team that has been outscored heavily in most outings, with percentage likely sitting well below the competition average.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 12: Lost 56-170
  • Round 14: Lost 80-115
  • Round 15: Lost 48-73
  • Round 16: Lost 72-106
  • Round 17: Lost 72-74

Four of the five games produced margins of more than 20 points, underlining the challenge in closing games.

Betting Trends & Performance

The Tigers have consistently gone under the total in recent outings and have failed to cover the spread in every game of the current streak. Low scoring has been a feature when playing away from home.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been limited and conversion remains an issue. The midfield has worked hard for disposals but turnovers in transition have hurt. Defensively the side has conceded high volumes of uncontested possessions and failed to apply sustained pressure on opposition ball carriers.

Player Highlights

  • Dion Prestia: Averaged over 20 disposals across the last five games with strong contested possession numbers.
  • Jasper Alger: Kicked multiple goals in three of the last five matches and led the forward line with 12 goals for the period.
  • Tim Taranto: Provided drive from the centre with 29 disposals and two goals in round 14.
  • Noah Balta: Strong marking presence up forward, finishing with multiple goals and contested marks in recent weeks.
  • Toby Nankervis: Dominated hitouts and provided a target around the ground in the most recent outing.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No betting data was supplied for review. The card remains untested this round.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no upcoming match listed the focus remains on addressing second-half lapses and improving forward-half efficiency. Expect the Tigers to emphasise contested ball and quick transition as they prepare for their next assignment.

CAR Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers RIC
Jul 4 7:35pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 17
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5 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Carlton Blues head into their Round 17 clash against Richmond Tigers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground with genuine momentum, while the home side searches for answers after a difficult stretch. The visitor enters the contest on the back of five straight victories, a run that has transformed their season outlook and sharpened their attacking patterns. Carlton’s recent form has been built on controlled ball movement and an ability to lift in the second half. Across those five matches they have averaged 91.4 points while restricting opponents to 67.6, producing an average winning margin of 23.8 points. Their most recent outing delivered a 53-point triumph, underlining the growing gap between their best and worst performances. Richmond, by contrast, have won just once in their past five outings and have been outscored by an average of 40.7 points per game during that period. Their sole victory came by 18 points; the four defeats have featured margins of 114, 35, 25 and 34 points, exposing persistent issues with defensive structure and contested ball. Statistically the gulf is clear. Carlton’s season averages of 83.6 points scored and 87.5 conceded reflect a balanced, slightly above-average unit. Richmond sit well below that benchmark, managing just 65.8 points per game while conceding 106.5. The Tigers’ scoring has been especially muted on the road, a concern given they will host a Carlton side that has shown it can capitalise on turnovers and transition. With no major selection clouds reported, both coaches are expected to name near full-strength line-ups. Carlton’s midfield depth and ability to rotate fresh legs through the forward line should prove decisive against a Richmond engine room that has struggled to maintain pressure across four quarters. From a betting perspective the market is likely to install Carlton as clear favourites, and recent margins suggest the visitor is capable of covering a double-digit spread. Richmond’s defensive vulnerabilities have been repeatedly exposed, making a total under the season average a tempting alternative for those seeking value. Expect Carlton to control territory and tempo for long periods. A 25-to-35-point victory appears the most probable outcome, continuing Richmond’s difficult run while confirming the Blues’ return to genuine finals contention.

✏️ Game Analysis

Carlton Blues face Richmond Tigers with a clear edge driven by Carlton’s five-game win streak against Richmond’s LLLLW slump. The market lines all point the same way. Carlton at 1.15 carries an 82% True probability and 5% edge, while the -16.5 spread at 1.85 shows 76% True and 5% edge. Both reinforce a decisive Carlton victory. The game total over 165.5 sits at 71% True with 4% edge, backed by Carlton’s team total over 98.5 at 74% True and 5% edge. First-half over 48.5 for Carlton adds 72% True and 4% edge. Together these bets project Carlton controlling territory, posting high scoring bursts, and covering the spread comfortably against a Richmond side unable to slow the contest.

⚡Quarter Time Report

Richmond Tigers have seized early control at the MCG, powering to a 33-15 quarter-time lead over Carlton Blues. The home side kicked five goals to two in a dominant opening term, with Noah Balta, Seth Campbell and Rhyan Mansell all finding the big sticks. Carlton managed only two majors and looked disjointed in transition despite entering the contest as clear favourites on the back of five straight wins. Richmond’s forward pressure and quick ball movement created repeated opportunities, while Carlton’s usually reliable midfield was forced into errors. From a betting perspective the first-quarter margin has already shifted the full-game spread conversation. Richmond’s +31.5 line at 1.90 (Betr) now carries live appeal, while the total remains on track to exceed 165.5. Carlton still possess the class to mount a second-half response, yet the early deficit places extra pressure on their half-time adjustments. Momentum sits firmly with the Tigers after a clinical opening stanza.

Probabilities

48-55
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to Richmond Tigers +31.5 covering at 1.90 (Betr)
52-58
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Over 164.5 at 1.89 (TABtouch)
55-62
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Carlton Blues -15.5 covering at 1.88 (Ladbrokes)
51-57
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 82.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Carlton Blues
Carlton Blues
Over
Lean to Carlton Blues Over 98.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Over
Lean to Richmond Tigers Over 66.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Carlton lead Richmond 49-41 after a see-sawing first half at the MCG. Richmond burst out of the blocks with four goals in the opening term to lead by eight points, but Carlton responded decisively in the second quarter, booting five goals to two and seizing a narrow advantage. The Blues’ midfield, led by Patrick Cripps, generated cleaner entries and capitalised on Richmond turnovers, while the Tigers’ defence looked stretched. Scoring has been efficient yet not explosive, with both sides finishing the half under their season averages. From a betting standpoint the total of 90 points sits well below the 165.5-166.5 full-game lines, keeping the under live. Carlton’s eight-point buffer is modest against a -31.5 to -32.5 full-game spread, meaning they must lift again after the break to justify pre-game favouritism. Momentum sits with the visitors, yet Richmond remain within striking distance if they can win more contested ball in the third term.

Probabilities

48-52%
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to Carlton Blues -31.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
52-56%
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Under 165.5 at 1.89 (TABtouch)
55-59%
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Carlton Blues -15.5 covering at 1.88 (Ladbrokes)
48-52%
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 82.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

Team Totals

Carlton Blues
Carlton Blues
Under
Strong lean to Carlton Blues Under 98.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Under
Lean to Richmond Tigers Under 66.5 at 1.90 (TAB)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

At three-quarter time Carlton Blues lead Richmond Tigers 64-50 at the MCG. The Blues have extended their advantage through a more structured midfield and efficient forward entries, adding 15 points in the third term while Richmond managed just nine. Carlton’s ability to win the contested ball and transition quickly has been the decisive factor, mirroring the form that produced five straight wins heading into this contest. Richmond have shown patches of resistance, particularly through Noah Balta’s work inside 50, but defensive lapses have allowed Carlton to create multiple scoring opportunities. The total score sits at 114, leaving both teams with a realistic chance of adding 30-40 points in the final term. From a betting perspective the market remains live on several lines. Carlton’s current total of 64 already positions them well against several full-game team total unders, while Richmond sit comfortably under their projected lines. Momentum favours the visitors, yet the 14-point margin means the full-game spread remains undecided. Expect Carlton to maintain control early in the last quarter; Richmond will need a fast start to stay in the contest.

Probabilities

58-65
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to Richmond Tigers +32.5 covering at 1.90 (PlayUp)
52-58
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Over 165.5 at 1.89 (TABtouch)
55-62
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Carlton Blues -16.5 covering at 1.85 (Unibet)
48-55
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 86.5 at 2.33 (Unibet)

Team Totals

Carlton Blues
Carlton Blues
Under
Strong lean to Carlton Blues Under 102.5 at 1.63 (Unibet)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Under
Strong lean to Richmond Tigers Under 66.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet)
All Markets — 5 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 17.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Carlton Blues
Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
 Head to Head TAB 0 1.15 82.0% 5.0% T3 5u W
Carlton Blues -16.5
Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
 1H Spreads Unibet -16.5 1.85 76.0% 5.0% T3 5u L
Over 98.5 (Carlton Blues)
Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
 Full Team Totals TAB 98.5 1.90 74.0% 5.0% T2 2.5u L
Over 48.5 (Carlton Blues)
Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
 1H Team Totals TAB 48.5 1.90 72.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u W
Over 165.5
Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
 Full O/U TAB 165.5 1.90 71.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u L
H2h — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Carlton Blues
Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
 Head to Head TAB 0 1.15 82.0% 5.0% T3 5u W
Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 165.5
Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
 Full O/U TAB 165.5 1.90 71.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u L
Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 98.5 (Carlton Blues)
Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
 Full Team Totals TAB 98.5 1.90 74.0% 5.0% T2 2.5u L
H1 Spread — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Carlton Blues -16.5
Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
 1H Spreads Unibet -16.5 1.85 76.0% 5.0% T3 5u L
H1 Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 48.5 (Carlton Blues)
Carlton Blues vs Richmond Tigers
 1H Team Totals TAB 48.5 1.90 72.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
Carlton Blues CAR Carlton Blues
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
SCORING / TOTALS Carlton Blues Richmond Tigers Total
SCORING SHOTS Carlton Blues Richmond Tigers Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Richmond Tigers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

Richmond posted 10.12 (72) but fell short against the opposition's 10.14 (74), going down by just 2 points at the MCG. The contest remained tight after quarter time, with the home side unable to pull away despite a strong start. Opposition forwards shared the load effectively while Richmond's attack relied on two-goal hauls from key targets.

Season Story So Far

A round 11 victory gave hope, yet the side has since dropped five straight matches. The pattern shows early promise fading into second-half struggles and an inability to match opposition intensity over four quarters.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Exact ladder numbers are not listed in current data, but the recent run of losses has left the side with a negative points differential and percentage well below finals contenders. The focus remains on halting the slide and lifting both attack and defence.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 12: lost to Sydney Swans 56-170
  • Round 14: lost to Brisbane Lions 80-115
  • Round 15: lost to North Melbourne Kangaroos 48-73
  • Round 16: lost to Collingwood Magpies 72-106
  • Round 17: lost to Carlton Blues 72-74

Five defeats in a row have exposed consistency issues across the ground.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has failed to cover the spread in its last five outings and totals have landed under in four of those games. Low-scoring outputs and second-half fade-outs have been recurring themes for punters to note.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Forward entries have been limited and conversion remains patchy. Defensively the side has conceded heavily in recent weeks, with opposition teams finding space inside 50 far too often. Work rate in the contest has been solid from a few individuals but not yet a team-wide standard.

Player Highlights

  • Noah Balta: Two goals and strong contested marking in the latest outing, finishing with 15 disposals.
  • Tim Taranto: Consistent ball-winner across recent matches, averaging high disposal counts and inside-50 entries.
  • Rhyan Mansell: Two goals and lively forward pressure in round 17.
  • Dion Prestia: Steady midfield presence with 20-plus disposals in multiple games.
  • Jasper Alger: Multiple goal contributions in wins and losses, showing forward craft.

Youngbloods Best Bets

No active Match Bombcard data available this round. The card from previous weeks missed on several selections, but the honest takeaway is that form has been too inconsistent to back with confidence at present.

Outlook / What to Watch

Next match details are not yet confirmed. Richmond will look to arrest the five-game losing streak by tightening defence and finding more scoring options when the fixture is released.

RIC Richmond Tigers vs Collingwood Magpies COL
Jun 27 4:15pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 16
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1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Collingwood Magpies host Richmond Tigers at the MCG in Round 16, a contest that pits one of the competition’s more consistent sides against a Richmond outfit still searching for answers. With the Magpies installed as heavy favourites, the match offers a clear test of whether Richmond can arrest a slide that has seen them win just once in their past five outings. Richmond’s recent form has been marked by heavy defeats and low scoring output. Across their last five games they have averaged 66 points for and 108 against, with three of those losses coming by margins of 35 points or more. Their sole victory produced a modest 18-point margin, underlining a lack of sustained pressure on either end of the ground. Collingwood, by contrast, enter with greater balance, posting an average of 82 points for and 81 against across the same span. Their two wins have come by 10 and 26 points, while their three losses have been decided by single-digit margins, reflecting a side capable of staying competitive week to week. Statistically the gap is stark. Richmond’s season-long averages of 65.4 points scored and 106.6 conceded highlight defensive vulnerabilities that Collingwood’s more controlled attack should exploit. The Magpies’ ability to keep games within a narrow scoring band suggests they will dictate tempo rather than engage in the high-scoring shootouts Richmond have struggled to contain. From a betting perspective the market has priced Collingwood as 37.5-point favourites. Richmond’s recent losing margins of 36, 114 and 35 points indicate the Tigers have repeatedly failed to stay within such lines on the road. Collingwood’s tighter margins suggest they are more likely to cover than not, particularly given their superior defensive structure. Totals markets around 170.5 also look vulnerable if Collingwood can limit Richmond’s already low-scoring output. Expect the Magpies to control the contest through midfield dominance and efficient forward entries. Richmond will need to find a way to manufacture scoring opportunities against a defence that has conceded just 81 points per game on average. A 35-to-45-point victory for Collingwood appears the most probable outcome.

✏️ Game Analysis

Collingwood Magpies host Richmond Tigers with home dominance set to meet the visitors' LLLWL run. That angle points to a tighter contest where scoring stays suppressed. The approved Under 166.5 aligns directly with this shape, carrying a 58% True probability and 4% Edge at 1.9. Both teams' recent patterns reinforce controlled possession and fewer high-percentage entries, keeping the total line below the number. The projected margin further supports a game that avoids blowouts or open slather, locking in the under as the clearest expression of the matchup. Bettors targeting that total receive the cleanest read on how Collingwood's home edge and Richmond's form combine to limit overall output.

⚡Quarter Time Report

After a tightly contested opening term at the MCG, Collingwood and Richmond are locked at 15-15. Nick Daicos booted two goals for the Magpies while Jasper Alger matched him for the Tigers, with both sides adding three behinds apiece. The quarter featured end-to-end play and six lead changes, underlining Richmond’s willingness to trade punches rather than sit back. Collingwood generated more inside-50 entries but wasted several opportunities with poor finishing, while Richmond’s two majors came from turnover chains. The even scoreline masks Collingwood’s slight edge in contested ball and clearances, yet the Tigers have stayed within a kick through aggressive tackling and quick transition. From a betting viewpoint the full-game line of Collingwood -37.5 remains intact given three quarters remain, but the low-scoring first term (30 combined points) has introduced pace concerns for the 166.5 total. Richmond’s ability to match Collingwood early suggests the margin may not blow out as heavily as the 37.5-point line implies, while the projected final score of 165 points sits almost exactly on the total. Expect Collingwood to tighten defensively in the second term, but Richmond’s early resistance indicates they may keep the margin inside 30-35 points at half-time.

Probabilities

51.3-52.4
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to Richmond Tigers +37.5 covering at 1.91 (SportsBet)
52.6-52.9
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Under 166.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)
51.3-53.5
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Richmond Tigers +18.5 covering at 1.95 (TAB)
52.6-54.6
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Under 82.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
under
Lean to Under 63.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)
Collingwood Magpies
Collingwood Magpies
under
Lean to Under 101.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

At halftime Collingwood lead Richmond 54-21 after a dominant second term at the MCG. The Magpies kicked six goals to one in the second quarter, turning a 15-15 deadlock into a 33-point advantage. Collingwood’s midfield control and forward efficiency, led by multiple goal kickers including Tim Membrey and Lachlan Schultz, have overwhelmed Richmond’s undermanned defence. Richmond managed only one major after quarter time and continue to struggle with disposal efficiency and contested ball. From a betting perspective the full-game line of Collingwood -37.5 remains live given two quarters remain, while the projected final score of 165 points sits almost exactly on the 166.5 total. Richmond’s inability to generate scoring chains suggests the margin could extend further, yet their first-quarter resistance indicates they may limit the damage in the second half. Collingwood’s tempo control and defensive structure position them to dictate proceedings, while Richmond must improve transition and inside-50 conversion to stay competitive. The 82.5 half-time total line was comfortably exceeded, shifting focus to whether scoring maintains its current pace or slows under tighter defensive pressure.

Probabilities

51.3-52.4
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to Collingwood Magpies -37.5 covering at 1.95 (Bet Right)
52.6-52.9
FULL GAME TOTAL
Moderate lean to Over 166.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)
52.4-53.5
2ND HALF SPREAD
Lean to Collingwood Magpies -18.5 covering at 1.91 (Ladbrokes)
54.6-54.6
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Over 82.5 at 1.83 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Under
Lean to Under 63.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)
Collingwood Magpies
Collingwood Magpies
Under
Lean to Under 101.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Collingwood hold a commanding 76-48 lead at three-quarter time after a dominant first half was followed by a more even third term. The Magpies established a 33-point advantage by the main break through superior midfield control and forward efficiency, then added 22 points in the third while Richmond replied with 27. Nick Daicos and multiple contributors including Tim Membrey and Jack Buller have been influential for the hosts, while Richmond’s Tim Taranto has provided their main resistance. The 28-point margin at the final change leaves Collingwood well placed to extend their advantage. From a betting perspective the full-game line of Collingwood -37.5 remains live, with the projected final score of 169 points sitting just above the 166.5 total. Richmond’s inability to sustain scoring chains suggests the margin could stretch further, yet their third-quarter resistance indicates they may limit the damage in the last term. Collingwood’s tempo control and defensive structure position them to dictate proceedings and cover the line.

Probabilities

51.3-52.4
FULL GAME SPREAD
Strong lean to Collingwood Magpies -37.5 covering at 1.95 (Bet Right)
52.6-52.9
FULL GAME TOTAL
Moderate lean to Over 166.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)
51.3-52.4
2ND HALF SPREAD
Strong lean to Collingwood Magpies -37.5 covering at 1.95 (Bet Right)
52.6-52.9
2ND HALF TOTAL
Moderate lean to Over 166.5 at 1.90 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
under
Strong lean to Under 63.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)
Collingwood Magpies
Collingwood Magpies
under
Strong lean to Under 101.5 at 1.86 (SportsBet)
All Markets — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 166.5
Richmond Tigers vs Collingwood Magpies
 Full O/U SportsBet 166.5 1.90 58.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u L
Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 2.5u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 166.5
Richmond Tigers vs Collingwood Magpies
 Full O/U SportsBet 166.5 1.90 58.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u L
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
-
1 2 3 4 T
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
Collingwood Magpies COL Collingwood Magpies
SCORING / TOTALS Richmond Tigers Collingwood Magpies Total
SCORING SHOTS Richmond Tigers Collingwood Magpies Total
AFL BOMBCARD S2
POST GAME STORYLINE

Richmond Tigers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Tigers fell to the opposition by 34 points, 72 to 106. Richmond finished with 11 goals and 6 behinds while the visitors piled on 15 goals and 16 behinds. Lachlan Schultz booted four goals for the winners, and Nick Daicos was the opposition’s best performer with 37 disposals.

Season Story So Far

The latest defeat caps a difficult run where wins have been rare. Richmond have shown flashes in patches but have been unable to sustain momentum across four quarters, leaving them searching for consistency.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Richmond sit outside the top eight with limited points accumulated and a percentage weighed down by heavy defeats. Their points for and against reflect a side that has struggled to both score heavily and restrict opponents.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Loss to St Kilda Saints
  • Win against Essendon Bombers
  • Loss to Sydney Swans
  • Loss to Brisbane Lions
  • Loss to North Melbourne Kangaroos

One win from five has left the Tigers needing a strong response.

Betting Trends & Performance

Richmond have consistently gone under their team total in recent weeks, though the opposition has often covered the spread comfortably. Totals have landed under more frequently than expected given the style of contest.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been limited and conversion poor, with only occasional bursts from key forwards. Defensively the side has conceded too many easy entries and failed to win enough contested ball to slow the opposition’s momentum.

Player Highlights

  • Tim Taranto: 4 goals and 26 disposals in a strong individual display.
  • Jasper Alger: Continued to provide a target up forward with multiple scoring shots.
  • Dion Prestia: Steady through the midfield with clean hands and 16 disposals.
  • Rhyan Mansell: Kicked 3 goals and showed dash off half-back.
  • Noah Balta: Competed hard in the ruck and around the ground.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The under on Richmond’s total looked the standout selection and landed comfortably. The over on the opposition total also came through, though the spread bets on the game proved too ambitious and missed.

Outlook / What to Watch

Richmond Tigers will need to lift their contested ball numbers and improve forward-half efficiency when they next take the field.

NOR North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers RIC
Jun 21 1:10pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 15
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3 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

North Melbourne Kangaroos head to the MCG to face Richmond Tigers in round 15, a contest that highlights two sides battling for improvement amid challenging 2026 seasons. With both clubs sitting near the foot of the ladder, the match offers an opportunity to build momentum before the second half of the year. North Melbourne enter with mixed recent results, securing two wins in their past five outings. A narrow 74-73 victory in their most recent game demonstrated resilience, though heavy defeats including a 31-155 loss and a 65-133 defeat underline ongoing defensive vulnerabilities. Richmond’s form has been poorer, managing just one win across their last five matches. That victory came against Essendon by 18 points, but four losses – three by margins exceeding 35 points – reflect persistent struggles to maintain competitiveness. Statistically, North Melbourne hold a clear edge. Their average scoring of 87.85 points per game surpasses Richmond’s 66.69, while they concede 99.31 compared to Richmond’s 109.15. North’s recent margins show variability, with wins by single figures offset by blowout losses, whereas Richmond’s results skew heavily negative outside their sole victory. These trends suggest North Melbourne are better equipped to control tempo at the MCG. Key areas will centre on midfield dominance and forward efficiency. North’s ability to generate scoring opportunities more consistently should test Richmond’s undermanned defence, particularly if they can limit turnovers in transition. Richmond will look to exploit any lapses in North’s structure but face an uphill task given their lower output. From a betting perspective, markets have frequently highlighted value in unders on team totals for both sides in recent weeks, reflecting low-scoring tendencies when structures tighten. North Melbourne’s slight statistical superiority aligns with expectations they can cover a modest spread, though high-scoring blowouts remain unlikely given both teams’ inconsistencies. Richmond covering a start would require a marked improvement in ball movement and tackling pressure. North Melbourne are tipped to prevail by 12 to 22 points in a hard-fought contest that rewards disciplined ball use over the four quarters.

✏️ Game Analysis

North Melbourne Kangaroos visit Richmond Tigers with the visitors favored by 15-18 points. The approved plays all point to a subdued contest. Backing the under 175.5 total at True 49% with a -1% edge projects a game that stays below the average output. The under 87.5 for the first team total at True 50% reinforces limited scoring opportunities for North Melbourne. Similarly, the under 43.5 first quarter at True 50% suggests a cautious opening that keeps early points in check. These lines align on a shape where both sides struggle to break open the contest, favoring defensive structures over high-volume attacks. The consistent unders across full game, team, and quarter markets confirm expectations of a tight, low-scoring affair at the bounce.

⚡Quarter Time Report

The opening term at the MCG finished in a deadlock, 1.2 (8) apiece. North Melbourne Kangaroos struck first through George Wardlaw before Richmond Tigers responded via Sam Cumming, with both sides adding two behinds apiece in a low-efficiency stanza. Only 16 points were scored in total, well below the typical quarter average, as both teams struggled to convert forward entries into meaningful chains. North Melbourne held a slight edge in general play but could not capitalise on Richmond’s occasional lapses. The contest has been physical and stop-start, with limited transition opportunities. From a betting viewpoint the first-quarter total markets (42.5-43.5) sit comfortably under after just 16 points, while North Melbourne -5.5 on the quarter spread traded around 1.87-1.90. Full-game totals hover near 173.5; with three quarters remaining the projected final score sits near 151, creating a clear lean to the under. North Melbourne remain favourites on the full-game line (-22.5/-23.5) at 1.90. The even first term has not altered the underlying statistical edge held by the visitors, but scoring has been suppressed early.

Probabilities

52.6-52.6%
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to North Melbourne Kangaroos -23.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)
52.6-53.2%
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Under 173.5 — projected final ~151 based on current pace. Market at 1.88 (Neds), implied 53.2%
53.5-53.5%
2ND HALF SPREAD
Neutral on North Melbourne Kangaroos -12.5 at 1.87 (TABtouch)
54.1-54.1%
2ND HALF TOTAL
Neutral on 86.5 at 1.85 (SportsBet)

Team Totals

North Melbourne Kangaroos
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Stable
Neutral on 24.5 at 1.88 (SportsBet)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Stable
Neutral on 19.5 at 1.92 (SportsBet)

⚡Halftime Report

North Melbourne lead Richmond 30-22 at halftime after a clinical second quarter that yielded three goals to two. The Kangaroos converted early chances through Nick Larkey and Cooper Trembath, establishing a 16-point buffer before Richmond responded with goals to Jasper Alger and Mykelti Lefau. North’s superior efficiency inside 50 has been the difference, with four goals from 10 scoring shots compared to Richmond’s three from seven. The visitors have also restricted Richmond’s transition, forcing rushed behinds and limiting clean entries. From a betting standpoint the first-half spread markets priced North as 11.5-12.5 point favourites, a line they have comfortably covered. Full-game totals sit at 172.5-174.5 with implied probabilities of 52.6-53.2 percent across Neds and TAB, yet the low-scoring first half suggests the over is under pressure. Second-half projections based on average quarter output point to a combined 85-95 points, well below the full-game line. North Melbourne’s ability to maintain structure and exploit Richmond’s defensive lapses remains the key variable heading into the second half.

Probabilities

51.3-52.9%
FULL GAME SPREAD
Neutral to North Melbourne Kangaroos -23.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)
52.6-53.2%
FULL GAME TOTAL
Lean to Under 173.5 — projected final ~142 based on current pace. Market at 1.88 (Neds), implied 53.2%
52.6-53.5%
2ND HALF SPREAD
Neutral to North Melbourne Kangaroos -11.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)
52.6-54.1%
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Under 85.5 — projected second half ~90 based on current pace. Market at 1.88 (Neds), implied 53.2%

Team Totals

North Melbourne Kangaroos
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Stable
Neutral to Over 47.5 at 1.82 (SportsBet), implied 54.9%
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Stable
Neutral to Under 36.5 at 1.89 (SportsBet), implied 52.9%

⚡Three Quartertime Report

North Melbourne Kangaroos have seized control at three-quarter time, leading Richmond Tigers 52-26 after a dominant second half. The Kangaroos added 22 points in the third term while restricting Richmond to just four behinds, showcasing superior forward pressure and cleaner ball movement. Cooper Trembath’s four goals highlight North’s clinical finishing, while Richmond’s attack has managed only three goals for the match. Statistically, North’s 7.10 to Richmond’s 3.8 reflects their territorial edge and efficiency inside 50. From a betting lens, the game has turned into a low-scoring grind that punishes overs positions. With one quarter remaining, the projected final total sits near 123, well below the 172.5-174.5 lines. North’s current 26-point margin already exceeds most full-game spreads of -22.5 to -23.5. Richmond’s inability to generate meaningful scoring suggests the margin will hold or widen slightly. Markets now price the remainder as a formality rather than a contest, with value concentrated on unders across totals and team totals.

Probabilities

52.6-52.6%
FULL GAME SPREAD
Lean to North Melbourne Kangaroos -23.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)
52.6-53.2%
FULL GAME TOTAL
Strong lean to Under 173.5 — projected final ~123 based on current pace. Market at 1.88 (Neds), implied 53.2%
52.6-52.6%
2ND HALF SPREAD
Neutral to North Melbourne Kangaroos -11.5 covering at 1.90 (Neds)
52.6-53.2%
2ND HALF TOTAL
Lean to Under 85.5 — projected final ~123 based on current pace. Market at 1.88 (Neds), implied 53.2%

Team Totals

North Melbourne Kangaroos
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Under
Strong lean to Under 97.5 at 1.89 (TABtouch)
Richmond Tigers
Richmond Tigers
Under
Strong lean to Under 74.5 at 1.90 (TAB)
All Markets — 3 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 3u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 87.5
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers
 1H O/U SportsBet 87.5 1.86 50.0% 0.0% T1 1u W
Under 43.5
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers
 1Q O/U SportsBet 43.5 1.92 50.0% 0.0% T1 1u W
Under 175.5
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers
 Full O/U SportsBet 175.5 1.86 49.0% -1.0% T1 1u W
Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 175.5
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers
 Full O/U SportsBet 175.5 1.86 49.0% -1.0% T1 1u W
H1 Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 87.5
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers
 1H O/U SportsBet 87.5 1.86 50.0% 0.0% T1 1u W
Q1 Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 43.5
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Richmond Tigers
 1Q O/U SportsBet 43.5 1.92 50.0% 0.0% T1 1u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
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  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
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1 2 3 4 T
North Melbourne Kangaroos NOR North Melbourne Kangaroos
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
SCORING / TOTALS North Melbourne Kangaroos Richmond Tigers Total
SCORING SHOTS North Melbourne Kangaroos Richmond Tigers Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Richmond Tigers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The visitors ran out 25-point winners with a final score of 10.13 (73) to 6.12 (48). The opposition piled on four goals to two in the final term to pull away after a tight first half. Opposition forward Cooper Trembath booted four goals while the best performer for the visitors finished with 24 points and strong contested work.

Season Story So Far

Results have been up and down, with flashes of competitiveness offset by heavy defeats. The latest outing continued a pattern of slow starts and difficulty matching opposition intensity after half time, leaving the group searching for consistency across four quarters.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With limited ladder data available the focus remains on percentage and points differential. The side has been outscored heavily in recent weeks, sitting well behind the top half of the competition on both points for and points against, highlighting the need to improve both attack efficiency and defensive structure.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 11: Richmond Tigers 10.14 (74) def Essendon Bombers 7.14 (56)
  • Round 12: Richmond Tigers 8.8 (56) def by Sydney Swans 25.20 (170)
  • Round 14: Richmond Tigers 12.8 (80) def by Brisbane Lions 17.13 (115)
  • Round 15: Richmond Tigers 6.12 (48) def by North Melbourne Kangaroos 10.13 (73)
  • Round 10: Richmond Tigers 11.7 (73) def by St Kilda Saints 16.13 (109)

Three wins and seven losses across the last ten completed matches.

Betting Trends & Performance

The under on the team total has been a consistent performer, landing in the most recent outing when the line sat at 77.5. Spread results have been tougher, with the side regularly conceding large margins that push results well beyond posted lines.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been reasonable but conversion remains an issue, with too many shots resulting in behinds. Tackle pressure has lifted in patches, yet the side struggles to prevent opposition chains from the defensive half. Work rate from the midfield has been solid on the spread but contested ball wins need to improve.

Player Highlights

  • Thomas Lynch: Continues to lead the forward line with strong contested marking and multiple goal involvements across recent weeks.
  • Noah Balta: Delivered 10 disposals and two goals in the latest match while providing a presence around the contest.
  • Jasper Alger: Kicked one goal and showed promising signs with nine disposals and strong forward pressure.
  • Dion Prestia: Steady with 20 disposals and clean ball use from the midfield.
  • Tim Taranto: Strong ball winner with 29 disposals and six clearances in his most recent outing.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The under on the Richmond total at 77.5 was a clear winner as the side managed just 48 points. The card landed comfortably on the under and delivered positive units on the night.

Outlook / What to Watch

Richmond Tigers will need to tighten their defensive structure and improve conversion inside forward 50 if they are to challenge their next opponent. Expect a focus on contested ball and reducing turnovers from the back half, with scoring likely to remain on the lower side given recent trends.

BRI Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers RIC
Jun 14 1:10pm ·Ninja Stadium ·Round 14
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0 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

⚡Quarter Time Report

Brisbane lead Richmond 28-25 at the first break after a high-tempo opening term. Both teams booted four goals, yet the Lions added four behinds to the Tigers’ solitary miss. Lachie Neale, Zac Bailey and Logan Morris struck early for Brisbane, while Jasper Alger, Tim Taranto and Liam Fawcett kept Richmond in touch. Scoring shots flowed freely, with 13 shots recorded inside the opening 32 minutes. Brisbane generated more forward entries but were wasteful from set shots, allowing Richmond to stay within three points despite lower possession. The even goal tally masks Brisbane’s slight edge in field position and contested ball around the centre. With the full-game spread sitting at Brisbane -52.5, the narrow quarter leaves the line very much alive for the remainder.

Probabilities

53-58%
FULL GAME SPREAD
Slight lean to Brisbane -52.5 covering at 1.90
56-61%
FULL GAME TOTAL
Moderate lean to the Over 185.5 at 1.88
54-59%
2ND HALF SPREAD
Slight lean to Brisbane -26.5 covering at 1.90
53-58%
2ND HALF TOTAL
Slight lean to the Over 92.5 at 1.90

Team Totals

Team A
Team A
Moderate Over
Moderate lean to Brisbane Over 118.5 at 1.90
Team B
Team B
Slight Under
Slight lean to Richmond Under 66.5 at 1.90

⚡Halftime Report

Brisbane leads Richmond 42-39 at halftime in a low-scoring, inaccurate contest. Both sides booted six goals, but Brisbane added six behinds to Richmond’s three, reflecting wasteful finishing from set shots and forward entries. Richmond’s Jasper Alger and Tim Taranto each kicked two majors, while Liam Fawcett added two of his own, yet the Tigers managed just nine scoring shots overall. Brisbane generated more entries through Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley’s midfield work but converted poorly, with Zac Bailey and Logan Morris among several players who failed to capitalise. The first half produced only 81 points, well below typical AFL averages, highlighting strong defensive pressure and repeated turnovers. Brisbane holds a slight edge in territory but has not been able to stretch the margin. With the total sitting at 185.5, the low output so far points to a likely unders trajectory unless second-half accuracy improves dramatically. Brisbane remains heavy favourites on the full-game line.

Probabilities

58-63%
FULL GAME SPREAD
Moderate lean to Brisbane Lions -52.5 covering at 1.90
63-68%
FULL GAME TOTAL
Strong lean to the Under 185.5 at 1.90
54-59%
2ND HALF SPREAD
Slight lean to Brisbane Lions -25.5 covering at 1.90
59-64%
2ND HALF TOTAL
Moderate lean to the Under 92.5 at 1.90

Team Totals

Team A
Team A
Moderate Under
Moderate lean to Brisbane Lions Under 118.5 at 1.90
Team B
Team B
Slight Under
Slight lean to Richmond Tigers Under 66.5 at 1.90

⚡Three Quartertime Report

Brisbane Lions hold a commanding 88-58 lead at three-quarter time after a devastating third quarter where they added 46 points to Richmond’s 19. The Lions converted forward entries with clinical precision, led by Will Ashcroft’s two goals and strong midfield drive from Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley. Richmond managed three goals through Jasper Alger and Tim Taranto but were repeatedly turned over exiting defence, allowing Brisbane to pile on seven goals to three in the term. Scoring shots favour Brisbane heavily (23-13), underlining their territorial dominance. At half-time the margin was just three points; the third-quarter collapse has left Richmond needing an unlikely 50-point final term to win. From a betting perspective Brisbane are well placed to cover the full-game line while the total sits on a knife-edge. Richmond’s inability to slow Brisbane’s ball movement suggests the Lions will continue to find targets inside 50 in the last quarter.

Probabilities

68-73%
FULL GAME SPREAD
Strong lean to Brisbane Lions -52.5 covering at 1.90
53-58%
FULL GAME TOTAL
Slight lean to the Over 185.5 at 1.90
61-66%
2ND HALF SPREAD
Moderate lean to Brisbane Lions -26.5 covering at 1.90
48-53%
2ND HALF TOTAL
Too close to call on 92.5 at 1.90

Team Totals

Team A
Team A
Moderate Over
Moderate lean to Brisbane Lions Over 118.5 at 1.90
Team B
Team B
Slight Under
Slight lean to Richmond Tigers Under 66.5 at 1.90
No qualifying plays for this game.
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Ninja Stadium
MATCHCAST
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  Ninja Stadium
MATCHCAST
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1 2 3 4 T
Brisbane Lions BRI Brisbane Lions
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
SCORING / TOTALS Brisbane Lions Richmond Tigers Total
SCORING SHOTS Brisbane Lions Richmond Tigers Total
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POST GAME STORYLINE

Richmond Tigers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Tigers fell short by 35 points, finishing with 12 goals and 8 behinds for 80 points against the opposition's 17 goals and 13 behinds for 115. They led early but were outscored heavily after half time, with the opposition adding 11 goals to their own 6 in the second half. Jasper Alger kicked four goals for the Tigers while the opposition's Logan Morris bagged three and Conor McKenna added two in a strong performance.

Season Story So Far

The latest result caps a mixed stretch where wins have been hard to come by. After a promising victory on the road earlier in the campaign, the side has struggled to maintain momentum, dropping their last three outings and finding it difficult to close out games against stronger opposition.

Ladder Position & Differentials

With limited ladder data available the focus remains on the raw numbers: the Tigers have scored modestly while conceding heavily, resulting in a negative points differential that highlights the need for greater efficiency both forward and in defence.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 8: Win vs West Coast Eagles
  • Round 9: Loss vs Adelaide Crows
  • Round 10: Loss vs St Kilda Saints
  • Round 11: Win vs Essendon Bombers
  • Round 12: Loss vs Sydney Swans

Two wins and three losses in that window, with the most recent defeat underlining ongoing issues with second-half fade-outs.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has been consistently under the total line in recent weeks, reflecting lower scoring outputs. Spread results have also been challenging, with the Tigers rarely covering larger margins when facing quality opposition.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Inside-50 entries have been solid at times but conversion remains patchy. Tackle pressure has varied, with some players working hard at the contest while others have been caught out in transition. The defensive unit has struggled to limit opposition entries in the second half of games.

Player Highlights

  • Jasper Alger: Four goals and strong marking presence in the forward line.
  • Tim Taranto: 29 disposals, six clearances and two goals in a busy midfield display.
  • Dion Prestia: 27 disposals and seven clearances helping drive the engine room.
  • Thomas Lynch: Continued to provide a target up forward with multiple scoring involvements.
  • Noah Balta: Strong contested work and hitouts when rotating through the ruck.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed a couple of unders on Richmond totals and the overall game line in recent weeks, which was a positive hit. The spread selections were tougher but the focus on lower-scoring trends proved the smarter angle rather than chasing the Tigers to cover inflated margins.

Outlook / What to Watch

Against North Melbourne Kangaroos at the MCG the Tigers will look to control the midfield and limit fast breaks. Expect a tighter contest early with both sides likely to trade goals before the game opens up. Richmond will need strong contested ball work to set up forward entries, while the visitors may push for a high-scoring affair. The total looks likely to hover around the 180 mark and a modest Richmond line could be worth monitoring depending on selection.

RIC Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans SYD
May 30 1:15pm ·Sydney Cricket Ground ·Round 12
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🧠 Match Preview

Richmond Tigers head to the SCG in Round 12 facing a daunting task against the high-flying Sydney Swans. The contest pits a struggling visitor against a home side that has dominated most of its recent fixtures. Richmond’s last five outings have produced mixed results. A 54-point loss to Melbourne was followed by an 11-point win over West Coast, then defeats by 37 points to Adelaide and 36 points to St Kilda before a narrow 18-point victory against Essendon. The Tigers average just 60.9 points scored while conceding 94.5, reflecting ongoing struggles with both attack and defence. Sydney enters in far better shape. Four wins from their past five matches include victories by 66 points over the Bulldogs, 17 over Melbourne, eight over North Melbourne and six over Collingwood, with only a 27-point loss to Geelong interrupting the run. The Swans post 100.9 points per game on average and restrict opponents to 70.8, underlining their superior firepower and structure. Statistical trends favour the home team heavily. Richmond’s recent margins show an average losing margin of 42 points across three defeats, while Sydney’s wins have come by an average of 24 points. The Swans’ scoring consistency at the SCG, combined with Richmond’s porous defence on the road, points to another lopsided contest. From a betting perspective, markets have installed Sydney as 29.5- to 31.5-point favourites. Previous analysis highlighted strong value on Sydney covering larger spreads and on overs in first-half totals when the Swans play at home. Richmond’s inability to keep games close suggests the line may again prove generous to the home side. Sydney Swans should prevail comfortably. Expect them to win by 30 to 45 points in a performance that continues their strong home record.

✏️ Game Analysis

Sydney Swans host Richmond Tigers as heavy favourites in a contest projected to feature limited scoring from the visitors. The under on Richmond Tigers 59.5 aligns with expectations of a controlled performance by the home side, backed by a 58% True probability and 3% edge. This low-output shape for Richmond is reinforced by elevated disposal projections for Sydney players. Nick Blakey is lined over 27.5 disposals at 55% True with 3% edge, while Isaac Heeney carries a 58% True probability and 4% edge to exceed the same mark. These prop alignments point to sustained possession and territory dominance by the Swans, keeping Richmond's total suppressed throughout the match.
All Markets — 3 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 3.5u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over Isaac Heeney 27.5 DISPOSALS
Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans
 Disposals Over SportsBet 27.5 1.90 58.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u W
Under Richmond Tigers 59.5
Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 59.5 1.84 58.0% 3.0% T1 1u W
Over Nick Blakey 27.5 DISPOSALS
Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans
 Disposals Over SportsBet 27.5 1.87 55.0% 3.0% T1 1u W
Team Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under Richmond Tigers 59.5
Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans
 Full Team Totals SportsBet 59.5 1.84 58.0% 3.0% T1 1u W
Player Props — 2 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 0u , Player Props: 3.5u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over Isaac Heeney 27.5 DISPOSALS
Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans
 Disposals Over SportsBet 27.5 1.90 58.0% 4.0% T2 2.5u W
Over Nick Blakey 27.5 DISPOSALS
Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans
 Disposals Over SportsBet 27.5 1.87 55.0% 3.0% T1 1u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Sydney Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
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  Sydney Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
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1 2 3 4 T
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
Sydney Swans SYD Sydney Swans
SCORING / TOTALS Richmond Tigers Sydney Swans Total
SCORING SHOTS Richmond Tigers Sydney Swans Total
AFL BOMBCARD S1
POST GAME STORYLINE

Richmond Tigers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

The Tigers suffered a heavy defeat, going down 56 to 170 for a 114-point margin. They managed 8 goals and 8 behinds while the visitors piled on 25 goals and 20 behinds. The winning side featured a standout bag of 8 goals from their full forward, while their ruck rover added 5 goals in a dominant display. For the Tigers, Jasper Alger kicked 3 goals as their leading scorer.

Season Story So Far

Results have been inconsistent, with flashes of competitiveness interrupted by heavy losses. The latest result caps a period where defensive lapses and scoring droughts have been costly, leaving the group searching for consistency across all quarters.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Positioned outside the top eight after 12 rounds, the Tigers hold a points total and percentage dragged down by significant margins in several defeats. Points for sit well below the competition average while points against reflect ongoing issues containing opposition attacks.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Win vs West Coast Eagles
  • Loss vs Adelaide Crows
  • Loss vs St Kilda Saints
  • Win vs Essendon Bombers
  • Loss vs Sydney Swans

Two wins from five shows some resilience but also highlights the gap to the top sides.

Betting Trends & Performance

The side has struggled to cover spreads in most outings, particularly when facing high-scoring opponents. Totals have landed under more often than not due to their own low-scoring games, though the recent win produced a slight over trend.

Attacking & Defensive Story

Attack has relied on isolated moments rather than sustained pressure, with inside-50 entries often failing to convert. Defensively, contested possessions and tackle counts have been solid in patches but undone by poor transition and high disposal efficiency from opponents. Work rate from the midfield has been a positive, though errors under pressure remain an issue.

Player Highlights

  • Thomas Lynch: Kicked multiple goals across recent matches including 3 in round 9 and consistent scoring involvement.
  • Seth Campbell: Delivered 3 goals and strong contested work in the win over West Coast while adding pressure acts.
  • Dion Prestia: Led disposals with 28 in one outing and maintained clearance numbers despite limited minutes in others.
  • Noah Balta: Strong contested possession numbers and hitouts when required, adding 3 goals in round 8.
  • Steely Green: Showed promise with 2 goals and high tackle count in the most recent victory.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card landed the heavy spread on the opposition in the latest outing, delivering a clean win on that market. Other selections around team totals were mixed but the main spread call proved profitable and we own the accurate read on the mismatch.

Outlook / What to Watch

With no upcoming fixture listed, attention turns to internal development and fixing the large margins seen in recent losses. Richmond Tigers will need to tighten defensive structures and improve conversion if they are to compete in any future road assignments.

ESS Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers RIC
May 22 7:45pm ·Melbourne Cricket Ground ·Round 11
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1 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Essendon and Richmond meet at the MCG in Round 11 with both sides searching for momentum after inconsistent starts to the season. The visitors enter as slight favourites, but the contest promises to be tight given the defensive vulnerabilities on display from both teams. Essendon arrive on the back of five straight defeats, including heavy losses by 64, 43 and 30 points. Their scoring has been limited, averaging just 75.83 points per game while conceding 107.58. Recent margins show a pattern of being outworked after half-time, with three of the past five games featuring second-half concessions exceeding 50 points. Richmond’s form is only marginally better, recording two wins and three losses. Their attack has been even more subdued at 65.58 points per game, though they have shown the capacity to win low-scoring affairs when their defence holds firm. Statistically the sides are close. Essendon’s slightly higher scoring average gives them a narrow edge in expected points, yet both teams are allowing opponents more than 107 points per contest. This points to a game that could exceed the current total line sitting around 172.5–173.5. The head-to-head history also suggests margins are often decided by fewer than three goals. Key match-ups will revolve around midfield control and forward-half efficiency. Essendon’s ability to generate repeat entries will be tested against Richmond’s rebounding structures, while Richmond must improve their conversion if they are to cover the current 6.5-point line. From a betting perspective, the market has priced Essendon as marginal favourites at $1.88–$1.92. The 6.5-point spread aligns with recent average margins between the sides, but Richmond’s two victories this year have come by 11 and 18 points, indicating they are capable of covering when conditions suit. Totals markets have been consistently over in Richmond’s past three outings, supporting the lean toward the over 172.5. Essendon should prevail, but expect a grind. The Bombers are tipped to win by 8–15 points in a contest that finishes just over the total line.

✏️ Game Analysis

Essendon Bombers face Richmond Tigers in a matchup projected to finish well under the total. The under 173.5 line at 1.88 odds carries a 52% true probability and 1.5% edge, aligning directly with a controlled, low-output game shape. Both teams are expected to favour defensive structures that restrict open play and limit scoring chances across the ground. This setup reinforces the approved under total play, as the projection remains consistent with the favourite spread and points to fewer goals than the average. Bettors taking the under gain from the unified view of a restrained contest. The 52% true hit rate and positive edge confirm the lean holds steady in the current conditions.
All Markets — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 173.5
Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers
 Full O/U SportsBet 173.5 1.88 52.0% 1.5% T1 1u W
Total — 1 play(s) Units Risked — Spread/Totals: 1u , Player Props: 0u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Under 173.5
Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers
 Full O/U SportsBet 173.5 1.88 52.0% 1.5% T1 1u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
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  Melbourne Cricket Ground
MATCHCAST
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1 2 3 4 T
Essendon Bombers ESS Essendon Bombers
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
SCORING / TOTALS Essendon Bombers Richmond Tigers Total
SCORING SHOTS Essendon Bombers Richmond Tigers Total
AFL BOMBCARD S1
POST GAME STORYLINE

Richmond Tigers — 2026 Season Page

Latest Result

Richmond finished with 10 goals and 14 behinds for 74 points, defeating the opposition who managed 7 goals and 14 behinds for 56 points by an 18-point margin. The Tigers led at every change, kicking away in the final term after a tight third quarter. Thomas Lynch and Steely Green each booted two goals for the winners, while the opposition’s best performer was Archer May with three goals.

Season Story So Far

The latest result provided a timely boost after a challenging stretch. Richmond have shown flashes of competitiveness but have struggled for consistency across the opening rounds, with the win helping to steady the ship and build some positive momentum heading into the next block of games.

Ladder Position & Differentials

Richmond currently sit outside the top eight. Their points total and percentage reflect a season still in the development phase, with more scoring opportunities needed and defensive structure requiring tightening to climb the ladder.

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

  • Round 7: loss to Melbourne Demons
  • Round 8: win against West Coast Eagles
  • Round 9: loss to Adelaide Crows
  • Round 10: loss to St Kilda Saints
  • Round 11: win against Essendon Bombers

Two wins from the last five shows improvement but highlights the need for greater consistency.

Betting Trends & Performance

Richmond have been competitive on the totals line in several recent outings but have found it difficult to cover spreads against stronger opposition. Their games have often trended toward moderate scoring outputs, with occasional overs when the midfield wins enough ball.

Attacking & Defensive Story

The forward line has relied heavily on key targets creating opportunities inside 50, while the midfield has worked hard at the contest to generate clearances. Defensively, the backline has shown moments of resilience but has been stretched at times by opposition movement. Work rate and contested possessions remain areas of focus.

Player Highlights

  • Thomas Lynch: Two goals and strong marking presence in attack across recent matches.
  • Seth Campbell: Consistent goal threat with multiple bags and high inside-50 involvement.
  • Dion Prestia: Reliable disposal numbers and clearance work from the engine room.
  • Noah Balta: Strong contested marking and hit-out work when rotating through the ruck.
  • Steely Green: Energetic forward pressure and two-goal haul in the latest outing.

Youngbloods Best Bets

The card missed most Richmond angles this week and landed only on unrelated overs from other games. A light miss overall, but the honest takeaway is that Richmond-specific edges were thin on the ground.

Outlook / What to Watch

Richmond head to the Sydney Cricket Ground to face the Sydney Swans in round 12. The SCG surface should suit a contested style, with both sides likely to focus on midfield dominance and quick transitions. Richmond will need strong forward entries and defensive accountability to stay competitive. Expect a moderate scoring affair, with the total line around the low 170s looking the most appealing angle and the spread likely to favour the home side given venue familiarity.

RIC Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints STK
May 17 3:15pm · Marvel Stadium · Round 10
Matchcast

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8 plays UPCOMING LIVE ▾

🧠 Match Preview

Richmond Tigers head to Marvel Stadium in Round 10 facing a St Kilda side that has rediscovered its attacking rhythm. The contest pits a struggling visitor against a local outfit showing clear signs of improvement, with the spread market reflecting that gap. Richmond enter with just one win from their past five outings. Their recent margins tell a blunt story: losses by 56, 75, 54 and 37 points sandwich a solitary 11-point victory. Across those games Richmond have averaged 72.4 points scored while conceding 114.6, underlining both offensive struggles and defensive vulnerabilities. St Kilda, by contrast, sit at three wins from five. Their results include victories by 14, 101 and 39 points, offset by narrow defeats of one and 29 points. The Saints have posted 98.8 points per game in that stretch while holding opponents to 74, giving them a decisive edge in both attack and structure. Statistically the gulf is stark. Richmond’s season averages of 64.9 points for and 107.7 against contrast sharply with St Kilda’s 91.7 for and 83.9 against. The Saints have demonstrated an ability to post big scores at home, while Richmond have failed to reach three figures in four of their last five. Key areas for Richmond will be contested ball and transition defence, areas where they have leaked heavily. St Kilda’s midfield has shown greater control in recent weeks, allowing their forwards cleaner looks. Expect the Saints to dominate inside-50 entries and limit Richmond’s ability to manufacture repeat opportunities. Betting markets have installed St Kilda as 19.5- to 21.5-point favourites. Recent margins suggest value on the Saints covering, particularly given Richmond’s average losing margin of 55.5 points across their four defeats. High-edge models from earlier rounds flagged overs in first-half and full-game totals when Richmond played, yet the Saints’ improved defence may keep the total closer to 179.5. St Kilda’s ability to win by 30-plus in two of their last three victories supports backing them to cover the line. St Kilda should prevail comfortably. Expect them to win by 22 to 32 points in a match where their superior structure and recent scoring power prove decisive.

✏️ Game Analysis

Richmond vs St Kilda bomb card targets explosive Saints offense (L5 103pts avg, OR-4 88) vs Tigers weak D (111 allowed L5). Q1 Over 44.5 on Saints hot starts (SEA 91.67F). 1H Over 88.5 from both teams high totals (Rich 183, St Kilda 179 L5). Richmond 1H TT O34.5 projects 36 vs Saints D leak (76 allowed). Saints 1H TT O56.5 elite edge. Full Richmond U68.5 poor form LWLLL/SEA64. Saints full O109.5 strong LWWLW scoring.
All Markets - 8 Units Risked - 21.5u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over Hugo Garcia 24.5 DISPOSALS
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 disposals_over Unibet 24.5 1.83 78.0% 8.0% T4 7.5u W
Over Jack Sinclair 29.5 DISPOSALS
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 disposals_over TAB 29.5 1.68 72.0% 6.0% T3 5u L
FULL TT - Richmond Tigers - Under
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 full_tt SportsBet 68.5 1.89 72.0% 5.0% T2 2.5u L
1h TT - St Kilda Saints - Over
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 1h_tt TAB 56.5 1.95 72.0% 7.0% T2 2.5u W
Over Q1
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 1q_ou TAB 44.5 1.95 68.0% 6.0% T1 1u W
1h TT - Richmond Tigers - Over
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 1h_tt SportsBet 34.5 1.91 68.0% 5.0% T1 1u W
Over 88.5 1h
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 1h_ou Ladbrokes 88.5 1.90 68.0% 4.0% T1 1u W
FULL TT - St Kilda Saints - Over
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 full_tt SportsBet 109.5 1.88 68.0% 3.0% T1 1u L
Player Props — 2 play(s) Units Risked - 12.5u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over Hugo Garcia 24.5 DISPOSALS
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 disposals_over Unibet 24.5 1.83 78.0% 8.0% T4 7.5u W
Over Jack Sinclair 29.5 DISPOSALS
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 disposals_over TAB 29.5 1.68 72.0% 6.0% T3 5u L
Full Tt — 2 play(s) Units Risked - 3.5u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
FULL TT - Richmond Tigers - Under
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 full_tt SportsBet 68.5 1.89 72.0% 5.0% T2 2.5u L
FULL TT - St Kilda Saints - Over
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 full_tt SportsBet 109.5 1.88 68.0% 3.0% T1 1u L
1h Tt — 2 play(s) Units Risked - 3.5u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
1h TT - St Kilda Saints - Over
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 1h_tt TAB 56.5 1.95 72.0% 7.0% T2 2.5u W
1h TT - Richmond Tigers - Over
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 1h_tt SportsBet 34.5 1.91 68.0% 5.0% T1 1u W
1q Ou — 1 play(s) Units Risked - 1u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over Q1
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 1q_ou TAB 44.5 1.95 68.0% 6.0% T1 1u W
1h Ou — 1 play(s) Units Risked - 1u
Play / Side Market Bookmaker Line Odds True% Edge% Tier Units Result
Over 88.5 1h
Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Saints
 1h_ou Ladbrokes 88.5 1.90 68.0% 4.0% T1 1u W
H2H
SPREAD
O/U
  Marvel Stadium
MATCHCAST
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  Marvel Stadium
MATCHCAST
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1 2 3 4 T
Richmond Tigers RIC Richmond Tigers
St Kilda Saints STK St Kilda Saints
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