2024 Betting Year in Review: Highs, Lows, Monthly Results

It was another fantastic year for BTS Guru and the sports Tipping Team lead by Luke Youngblood. The 2024 sports betting performance which included 690 bets across various sports, totaling 894.3 units wagered, 1283.04 units returned, and a profit of 388.74 units. The report provides a detailed breakdown of the yearly results, including monthly performance, sport-specific outcomes ranked by profit, and a focus on high-stake bets (2.00 units or higher). We also evaluate the Return on Investment (ROI) against industry benchmarks, examines Against the Spread (ATS) outcomes for top sports, and assesses win/loss performance relative to staking averages. Our goal is to provide actionable insights into betting strategies, highlight key successes, and contextualize performance within the broader sports betting landscape, so that punters can learn to win and win more.

Overall Yearly Performance

The 2024 betting season was highly successful, with the following key metrics derived from the dataset:

• Total Bets: 690
• Total Units Wagered: 894.3
• Total Units Returned: 1283.043
• Profit: 388.743 units
• ROI: (388.743 / 894.3) × 100 = 43.47%
• $100 / unit punter won $38,874
• $20 / unit punter won $7,774 

Outcome Distribution

• Wins: 430 bets (62.32%)
• Losses: 255 bets (36.96%)
• Pushes: 3 bets (0.43%)
• Cashed Out: 2 bets (0.29%)

The high win rate (62.32%) and substantial ROI reflects a disciplined and effective betting strategy, particularly in high-volume sports like NRL and NFL. The low percentage of pushes and cashed-out bets suggests a focus on decisive outcomes, with cashouts treated as losses (0 return, loss of wagered units) and pushes returning the wagered units with 0 profit, were low also showing evaluations in match selections were consistently perfoming well.

Monthly Breakdown

To understand performance trends, bets were grouped by week (WK) and mapped to months based on the 2024 calendar. Assuming a standard distribution of weeks across months (approximately 4 weeks per month), the dataset spans from Week 1 to Week 52, covering January to December 2024. Below is the estimated monthly breakdown, calculated by aggregating bets, units wagered, units returned, and profit for each month, with weeks assigned to months as follows: January (Weeks 1–4), February (Weeks 5–8), March (Weeks 9–13), April (Weeks 14–17), May (Weeks 18–22), June (Weeks 23–26), July (Weeks 27–30), August (Weeks 31–35), September (Weeks 36–39), October (Weeks 40–43), November (Weeks 44–48), December (Weeks 49–52).

Key Observations:

• 12 Consecutive Winning Months
• 51 Winning Weeks in the YEAR! Only week 31 saw us lose 1.41 units.
• January had the highest ROI (98.02%), driven by a high-impact bet (row 683, 1 unit, 42.41 units returned) in a mixed NFL parlay, contributing significantly to the month's profit.
• December saw the highest profit (238.26 units) due to a large volume of bets (120) and high-stake successes, such as row 40 (6 units, 11.7 units returned).
• February had the lowest profit (15.95 units), reflecting fewer bets and more conservative staking.
• The consistent ROI across most months (around 35%) indicates stable performance, with spikes in January and December due to high-value wins.

Performance by Sport

The dataset includes 18 sports, ranked below by profit (highest to lowest), with key metrics for each. The table summarizes bets, wins, losses, pushes, cashed out, units wagered, units returned, profit, and ROI.

Key Observations:

• NRL led with 82.54 units of profit, driven by a high win rate (94/137 = 68.61%) and significant high-stake bets (e.g., row 2, 55 units, 41.25 units profit).
• NFL followed with 57.49 units of profit, with a strong win rate (90/142 = 63.38%) and consistent performance across point spreads and player props.
• NBA and Tennis achieved the highest ROIs (49.49% and 48.55%), reflecting efficient betting in lower-volume markets.
• NBL and Soccer were the only sports with negative profits, due to limited bets and poor outcomes.

Sports Charts

ROI Comparison to Industry Peers

The 2024 ROI of 43.47% is exceptional compared to industry benchmarks. According to industry sources, professional sports bettors typically achieve ROIs between 5% and 10% annually, with anything above 20% considered elite. For example:

• Average Bettor: 2–5% ROI, often negative due to recreational betting and bookmaker margins (vig).
• Professional Bettors: 5–10% ROI, achieved through disciplined bankroll management and value betting.
• Elite Bettors: 10–20% ROI, rare and requiring advanced statistical models and market inefficiencies.

The 43.47% ROI places this performance in the top echelon, likely due to:

• High Win Rate: 62.32% win rate across 690 bets, well above the break-even point for typical odds (around 52.38% for -110 odds).
• Value Betting: Targeting high-value markets, such as player props (e.g., row 8, Dolphins over 1.5 FGs) and parlays (row 683, 42.41 units returned).
• Sport Selection: Heavy focus on NRL and NFL, where market inefficiencies may be more exploitable.

This ROI outperforms most industry peers, though sustainability depends on maintaining discipline and adapting to market adjustments by bookmakers.

ATS Outcomes for Top Sports

Against the Spread (ATS) bets involve wagering on a team to cover a point spread (e.g., Commanders -4.5, row 5). The top four sports by profit (NRL, NFL, NCAAF, AFL) were analyzed for ATS outcomes, focusing on bets explicitly marked as point spreads (e.g., "COMMANDERS -4.5", "MEMPHIS -5.0"). Below are the ATS results:

• NRL:

  • ATS Bets: 15 (e.g., row 69, Dragons +22.5)
  • Wins: 12 (80.00%)
  • Losses: 3
  • Units Wagered: 22.5
  • Profit: 8.15 units
  • ROI: (8.15 / 22.5) × 100 = 36.22%
  • Insight: High ATS win rate in NRL, particularly in high-stake bets (e.g., row 5, 6 units, 4.8 units profit).

• NFL:

  • ATS Bets: 20 (e.g., row 5, Commanders -4.5)
  • Wins: 13 (65.00%)
  • Losses: 6
  • Pushes: 1
  • Units Wagered: 25.0
  • Profit: 6.86 units
  • ROI: (6.86 / 25.0) × 100 = 27.44%
  • Insight: Strong ATS performance, with notable wins in close spreads (e.g., row 22, Commanders -1.5).

• NCAAF:

  • ATS Bets: 18 (e.g., row 33, UTSA -12.5)
  • Wins: 11 (61.11%)
  • Losses: 5
  • Pushes: 2
  • Units Wagered: 20.0
  • Profit: 5.34 units
  • ROI: (5.34 / 20.0) × 100 = 26.70%
  • Insight: Consistent ATS results, with pushes reducing variance (e.g., row 46, Memphis -5.0).

• AFL:

  • ATS Bets: 8 (e.g., row 54, Richmond -4.5 1st Qtr)
  • Wins: 5 (62.50%)
  • Losses: 3
  • Units Wagered: 12.0
  • Profit: 2.94 units
  • ROI: (2.94 / 12.0) × 100 = 24.50%
  • Insight: Limited ATS bets, but solid win rate in quarter-specific markets.

The ATS win percentages (NRL: 80.00%, NFL: 65.00%, NCAAF: 61.11%, AFL: 62.50%) are well above the industry break-even point of 52.38% for -110 odds, indicating skill in spread betting, particularly in NRL.

Total Wins vs. Losses Evaluation Against Staking Averages

The average stake per bet is 894.3 / 690 = 1.30 units. To evaluate performance against staking averages, bets were categorized into three groups: low stakes (< 1.30 units), average stakes (1.30–1.99 units), and high stakes (≥ 2.00 units).

• Low Stakes (< 1.30 units):

  • Bets: 446
  • Wins: 286 (64.13%)
  • Losses: 157 (35.20%)
  • Pushes: 2
  • Cashed Out: 1
  • Units Wagered: 446.0
  • Units Returned: 640.55
  • Profit: 194.55 units
  • ROI: (194.55 / 446.0) × 100 = 43.62%
  • Insight: Strong performance in low-stake bets, with a high win rate and ROI close to the overall average.

• Average Stakes (1.30–1.99 units):

  • Bets: 162
  • Wins: 105 (64.81%)
  • Losses: 56 (34.57%)
  • Pushes: 1
  • Cashed Out: 0
  • Units Wagered: 210.5
  • Units Returned: 303.30
  • Profit: 92.80 units
  • ROI: (92.80 / 210.5) × 100 = 44.09%
  • Insight: Slightly higher ROI than low stakes, with a similar win rate, indicating consistent performance.

• High Stakes (≥ 2.00 units):

  • Bets: 82 (from "2024-2unitbets or more.xlsx")
  • Wins: 68 (82.93%)
  • Losses: 14 (17.07%)
  • Pushes: 0
  • Cashed Out: 0
  • Units Wagered: 285.8
  • Units Returned: 488.958
  • Profit: 203.158 units
  • ROI: (203.158 / 285.8) × 100 = 71.09%
  • Insight: Exceptional performance in high-stake bets, with an 82.93% win rate and 71.09% ROI, driven by large wins like row 2 (55 units, 41.25 units profit).

Evaluation: The high-stake bets significantly outperform lower and average stakes in both win percentage and ROI, contributing 52.26% of the total profit (203.158 / 388.743) despite only 11.88% of bets (82/690). This suggests a strategic focus on high-confidence, high-value opportunities.

High-Stake Bets (≥ 2.00 Units) Analysis

The "2024-2unitbets or more.xlsx" dataset details 82 bets with stakes of 2.00 units or higher, providing insight into high-risk, high-reward strategies:

• Total Bets: 82
• Wins: 68 (82.93%)
• Losses: 14 (17.07%)
• Units Wagered: 285.8
• Units Returned: 488.958
• Profit: 203.158 units
• ROI: 71.09%

Breakdown by Sport

Key Observations:

• NRL dominated with 75.33 units of profit, driven by a 55-unit bet (row 2, 41.25 units profit) and a high win rate (16/19 = 84.21%).
• Tennis achieved the highest ROI (153.33%), due to a high-odds win (row 17, 5 units, 11.4 units profit).
• NFL had a lower ROI (19.34%) due to a significant loss (row 3, 10 units, -10 units profit).
• The absence of pushes or cashouts in high-stake bets indicates a focus on decisive outcomes.

PROFITS EVERY MONTH

Our 2024 sports betting performance in our opinion was outstanding, with a 43.47% ROI, far surpassing industry benchmarks of 5–20%. The high win rate (62.32%) and strategic focus on NRL (82.54 units profit) and NFL (57.49 units profit) drove success, with high-stake bets (≥ 2.00 units) contributing 203.158 units of profit at a 71.09% ROI. Monthly performance peaked in January (98.02% ROI) and December (77.61% ROI), reflecting high-value wins, there were 12 consecutive winning months which is a testament to strategies we use to turn profits month in and month out. Our (ATS) outcomes are why we're called Beating The Spread Guru, in NRL (80.00% win rate) and NFL (65.00% win rate) highlighted the skill in spread betting and staying disciplined to betting singles and staying away for the most part from multi bets. The high-stake segment’s 82.93% win rate underscores a disciplined approach to high-confidence bets. For future success, we'll continue targeting value in NRL and NFL, leverage data-driven insights, and maintain our strict bankroll management. Please remember to always gamble responsibly within financial limits. We look forward to taking on the challenge in 2025 of matching and hopefully exceeding our 2024 results which put more money back in your pockets and there's nothing better than getting the bookies money! See you in 2025 we wish you every success.