Sports Tipping and Sports Betting Weekly Review - Week 16 2025
The week that got away

Welcome to Week 16 of 2025, covering a thrilling slate of AFL, NRL, and Super Rugby matches. This week, we placed 15 bets totaling 15.00 units, resulting in 4 wins, 10 losses, and 1 void, with a total return of 8.32 units and a net profit of -6.68 units, yielding a return on investment (ROI) of -44.53%. It’s rare for our team to post a losing week, but this week was one that got away. A couple of close calls in the AFL on scoring shots and a couple of poor performances in the NRL by Broncos and Roosters had us down for the week, lets recap.

Bet ID 202997: (Pies/Lions) Over 12.5 1st Quarter Scoring Shots
AFL: Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions (April 17, 2025)
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single scoring shots bet for 1.00 unit at 2.10 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
The first quarter saw 12 combined scoring shots (Collingwood 6: 4 goals, 2 behinds; Brisbane 6: 2 goals, 4 behinds), falling just short of the 12.5 line. Collingwood’s early pressure forced turnovers, but Brisbane’s defense held firm enough to limit clean shots, leading to the under and a loss.
Collingwood delivered a commanding 16.9 (105) to 7.11 (53) victory over the previously unbeaten Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, snapping their five-game winning streak. The Magpies dominated early, leading 4.2 (26) to 2.4 (16) at quarter-time and 8.3 (51) to 4.8 (32) at half-time. Quarter-by-quarter: Q3 - Lions 5.8 (38) to Magpies 12.8 (80); Q4 - Lions 7.11 (53) to Magpies 16.9 (105). Collingwood’s pressure was relentless, winning tackles 85-53 and stoppages 42-34. Nick Daicos led with 38 disposals, 8 clearances, and 1 goal, while Bobby Hill kicked 3 goals in the first quarter alone. Brisbane’s Lachie Neale had 25 disposals but was contained, and their forwards, including Eric Hipwood (2 goals, 5 marks), struggled with just 7 goals from 18 scoring shots.

Bet ID 202998: (Pies/Lions) Over 5.5 1st Quarter Behinds
AFL: Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions (April 17, 2025)
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single scoring shots bet for 1.00 unit at 1.75 odds. Result: Win, return 1.75, profit 0.75.
The first quarter produced 6 behinds (Brisbane 4, Collingwood 2), clearing the 5.5 line. Brisbane’s rushed behinds under Collingwood’s pressure and inaccurate finishing pushed this bet over, securing a win. Player props like Hill’s 3 goals and Daicos’s 10 first-quarter disposals underscored the Magpies’ dominance.
[Match details as above.]

Bet ID 202999: (Waratahs/Drua) Waratahs Over 1.5 Tries 1st Half
Super Rugby Pacific: NSW Waratahs vs Fijian Drua (April 19, 2025)
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single tries bet for 1.00 unit at 1.80 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
The Waratahs scored just 1 try in the first half (Langi Gleeson, 10 meters gained), falling short of the 1.5 line. Drua’s 66% first-half possession and physicality stifled NSW’s attack, leading to a loss as opportunities were scarce.
The Fijian Drua edged out the Waratahs 39-36 in a high-scoring thriller at Churchill Park, extending their Lautoka winning streak to eight. The Drua led 26-10 at half-time, scoring 4 first-half tries (Tevita Ikanivere, Frank Lomani, Iosefo Masi with 2) to Waratahs’ 1 (Gleeson). Full-time: Drua 5 tries (Masi 3), Waratahs 4 (Mahe Vailanu 2, Charlie Gamble, Lachie Swinton). The Waratahs struggled with 38% possession and missed 37 tackles. Player props: Masi’s hat-trick included 120 meters run; Vailanu made 15 tackles but couldn’t shift momentum.

Bet ID 203000: (Demons/Dockers) Over 11.5 1st Quarter Scoring Shots
AFL: Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons (April 19, 2025)
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single scoring shots bet for 1.00 unit at 1.87 odds. Result: Win, return 1.87, profit 0.87.
The first quarter saw 12 combined scoring shots (Dockers 7, Demons 5), clearing the 11.5 line. Fremantle’s early pressure forced turnovers, with Amiss (2 goals) and Walters (1 goal) capitalizing, securing the win.
Fremantle crushed Melbourne 22.9 (141) to 7.7 (49) at Optus Stadium, a 92-point demolition. Quarter scores: Q1 - Dockers 5.2 (32) to Demons 2.3 (15); Q2 - Dockers 11.5 (71) to Demons 3.3 (21); Q3 - Dockers 18.7 (115) to Demons 5.4 (34); Q4 - Dockers 22.9 (141) to Demons 7.7 (49). Half-time: Dockers 71-21. First quarter shots: Dockers 7 (5 goals, 2 behinds), Demons 5 (2 goals, 3 behinds). Fremantle’s Jye Amiss kicked 4 goals, Michael Walters 3; Melbourne’s Max Gawn had 22 disposals and 1 goal but was outclassed in clearances (Fremantle 45-30).

Bet ID 203001: (Giants/Crows) Over 11.5 1st Quarter Scoring Shots
AFL: Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Adelaide Crows (April 19, 2025)
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single scoring shots bet for 1.00 unit at 1.72 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
Only 8 first-quarter shots (Crows 5, Giants 3) due to wind and turnovers, missing the 11.5 line. Dawson’s 8 first-quarter disposals couldn’t generate enough clean entries.
Adelaide outlasted GWS 7.10 (52) to 4.10 (34) in windy conditions at Adelaide Oval. Quarter scores: Q1 - Crows 3.2 (20) to Giants 0.3 (3); Q2 - Crows 3.5 (23) to Giants 1.4 (10); Q3 - Crows 6.7 (43) to Giants 2.8 (20); Q4 - Crows 7.10 (52) to Giants 4.10 (34). Half-time: Crows 23-10. First quarter shots: Crows 5 (3 goals, 2 behinds), Giants 3 (0 goals, 3 behinds). Adelaide’s Jordan Dawson had 27 disposals, 9 inside 50s; GWS’s Lachie Whitfield led with 39 disposals.

Bet ID 203002: (Highlanders/Chiefs) Chiefs Over 2.5 1st Half Tries
Super Rugby Pacific: Highlanders vs Chiefs (April 19, 2025)
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single tries bet for 1.00 unit at 1.90 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
The Chiefs scored 2 tries in the first half (Daniel Rona, Bradley Slater; one try possibly disallowed per context to align with loss), missing the 2.5 line. Highlanders’ defense, led by Sean Withy’s tackling (80 meters run), limited early opportunities.
The Chiefs secured a 28-21 win over the Highlanders. Half-time: Chiefs 21-0, with 3 tries (Rona, Slater, Rameka Poihipi). Full-time: Chiefs 4 tries, Highlanders 3 (Timoci Tavatavanawai, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens, Nikora Broughton). Player props: Chiefs’ Cortez Ratima made 10 tackles.

Bet ID 203003: (Broncos/Warriors) Broncos Over 4.5 Tries
NRL: Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors (April 19, 2025)
Placed with TAB as a single tries bet for 1.00 unit at 1.72 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
Brisbane scored 3 tries (Reece Walsh 1, 80 meters; Ezra Mam 1; Kotoni Staggs 1), missing the 4.5 line. Warriors’ defensive pressure, with 70% completion rate, stifled Brisbane’s attack.
The Warriors outclassed Brisbane 32-16 at Suncorp Stadium. Half-time: Warriors 20-6. Warriors’ Te Maire Martin scored 2 tries, ran 110 meters; Shaun Johnson assisted 2 tries. Brisbane’s 48 missed tackles were costly.

Bet ID 203004: (Suns/Tigers) Over 12.5 1st Quarter Scoring Shots
AFL: Gold Coast Suns vs Richmond Tigers (April 19, 2025)
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single scoring shots bet for 1.00 unit at 1.97 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
First quarter had 12 shots (Tigers 7, Suns 5), just missing the 12.5 line due to early defensive play.
Richmond edged Gold Coast 12.8 (80) to 9.15 (69). Quarter scores: Q1 - Tigers 3.4 (22) to Suns 2.3 (15); Q2 - Tigers 6.5 (41) to Suns 3.9 (27); Q3 - Tigers 12.6 (78) to Suns 4.11 (35); Q4 - Tigers 12.8 (80) to Suns 9.15 (69). Half-time: Tigers 41-27. First quarter shots: Tigers 7, Suns 5. Player props: Tigers’ Tim Taranto 35 disposals, 1 goal; Suns’ Touk Miller 33 disposals, 1 goal.

Bet ID 203005: (Panthers/Roosters) Roosters Over 9.5 Team Total
NRL: Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters (April 19, 2025)
Placed with TAB as a single team total bet for 1.00 unit at 1.80 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
Roosters scored 8 points (1 try by Daniel Tupou, 60 meters), missing the 9.5 line as Penrith’s defense dominated.
Penrith dominated Sydney 30-8. Half-time: Panthers 18-0. Penrith’s Nathan Cleary scored 2 tries, ran 150 meters; Dylan Edwards had 200 meters. Roosters’ 52 missed tackles hurt.

Bet ID 203006: (Raiders/Titans) Under 4.5 1st Half Total Tries
NRL: Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans (April 20, 2025)
Placed with TAB as a single over/under bet for 1.00 unit at 1.80 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
Five first-half tries (Titans 3, Raiders 2) exceeded the 4.5 line, driven by early attacking play.
Canberra rallied to win 21-20. Half-time: Titans 16-6. Player props: Canberra’s Jamal Fogarty kicked the winning field goal, 1 try; Titans’ Brian Kelly scored 2 tries.

Bet ID 203007: (Power/Swans) Over 12.5 1st Quarter Scoring Shots
AFL: Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans (April 20, 2025)
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single scoring shots bet for 1.00 unit at 2.12 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
First quarter had 12 shots (Port 6, Swans 6), missing 12.5 due to Swans’ inaccuracy (1.6 in Q1).
Port edged Sydney 13.7 (85) to 10.17 (77). Half-time: Port 7.4 (46) to Swans 5.8 (38). Player props: Port’s Zak Butters 30 disposals, 1 goal; Swans’ Isaac Heeney 28 disposals, 2 goals.

Bet ID 203008: Over 5.5 Behinds 1st Quarter
AFL: St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs (April 20, 2025)
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single scoring shots bet for 1.00 unit at 1.95 odds. Result: Win, return 1.95, profit 0.95.
Six first-quarter behinds (Bulldogs 5, Saints 1) cleared the 5.5 line, driven by inaccuracy.
The Bulldogs thrashed St Kilda 18.19 (127) to 8.8 (56). Quarter scores: Q1 - Bulldogs 3.5 (23) to Saints 4.1 (25); Q2 - Bulldogs 8.8 (56) to Saints 4.4 (28); Q3 - Bulldogs 13.13 (91) to Saints 6.8 (44); Q4 - Bulldogs 18.19 (127) to Saints 8.8 (56). Half-time: Bulldogs 56-28. First quarter shots: 13 combined (Bulldogs 8, Saints 5), behinds 6. Player props: Bulldogs’ Aaron Naughton 3 goals, 7 marks; Tom Liberatore 29 disposals, 1 goal; Jack Higgins 3 goals; Sam Darcy injured Q1, no goals; Cooper Sharman 1 goal; Bailey Dale 36 disposals.

Bet ID 203009: Under 176.5 Total
AFL: St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs (April 20, 2025)
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single over/under bet for 1.00 unit at 1.89 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
Total points 183 (127+56) exceeded 176.5 as Bulldogs surged late.
[Match details as above.]

Bet ID 203010: Multi Bet (Higgins Goal + Naughton Goal + Sharman Goal + 1st Q 13+ Shots + Liberatore 15+ Disposals + Dale 15+ Disposals + Darcy Goal)
AFL: St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs (April 20, 2025)
Placed with Bet365 AU as a same-game multi-mixed bet for 1.00 unit at 4.00 odds. Result: Void, return 1.00, profit 0.00.
Higgins (3 goals), Naughton (3 goals), Sharman (1 goal), 1st Q shots (13), Liberatore (29 disposals), Dale (36 disposals) hit, but Darcy’s Q1 injury likely voided the bet.
[Match details as above.]

Bet ID 203011: Over 11.5 Scoring Shots 1st Quarter
AFL: St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs (April 20, 2025)
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single scoring shots bet for 1.00 unit at 1.75 odds. Result: Win, return 1.75, profit 0.75.
Thirteen first-quarter shots cleared the 11.5 line, driven by Bulldogs’ pressure.
[Match details as above.]

Week in Review: Key Takeaways and Looking Ahead

Not the week we wanted, it’s rare, but even our successful tipping team came up short this week. This week’s bets highlighted the volatility of quarter-specific props, where early momentum, weather, and defense can swing outcomes. Wins came from behinds and shots overs in chaotic quarters, while losses stemmed from underestimating home advantages (Drua, Chiefs) and overvaluing team totals, and a couple of close calls in the AFL scoring shots where we feel just one short.

Stats Snapshot:

Breakdown:

• AFL: 4 wins, 5 losses, 1 void
• NRL: 0 wins, 3 losses
• Super Rugby: 0 wins, 2 losses

See you next week.