WEEK 17 Sports Betting Review: April 2025

This week we looked to bounce back and cover the loss of 6.68 units from last weeks close calls coming up short. We went with 11 sports bets placed across NBA, NHL, AFL, and NRL events. It was a solid week with some good bets, 12.5 units out with a return of 18.08 units for a tidy 5.58 unit profit (44.64% ROI). It wasn’t enough to overcome last weeks loss as the final 3 bets of the week went down, however we still remained in front for the month, look out for the Monthly Report to follow later in the week.

Bet Analysis

Bet ID 203012: NBA - Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder, Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder Over 30.5 1st Quarter

Placed with Bet365 AU as a single over/under bet for 1.00 unit at 1.87 odds. Result: Win, return 1.87, profit 0.87.

Comments/Game Notes: The Thunder’s fast-paced offense, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, was expected to exploit Memphis’ inconsistent first-quarter defense, with Oklahoma City averaging 32.8 points in the first quarter over their last 10 games. The final result saw the Thunder score 34 points to the Grizzlies’ 28 in the first quarter, driven by Gilgeous-Alexander’s 12 points (4/6 FG, 2/2 FT) and 2 assists, Chet Holmgren’s 8 points and 3 rebounds, and Jalen Williams’ 6 points and 1 assist. Gilgeous-Alexander’s penetration and Holmgren’s presence in the paint ensured efficient scoring, easily clearing the 30.5-point line.

Bet ID 203013: NBA - Orlando Magic vs Boston Celtics, Pick: Celtics -4.5 1st Quarter

Placed with Bet365 AU as a single spread bet for 1.00 unit at 1.87 odds. Result: Win, return 1.87, profit 0.87.

Comments/Game Notes: Boston’s home dominance and first-quarter scoring differential of +6.2 over their last 10 games made the -4.5 spread a strong pick against Orlando’s slower starts. The Celtics won the first quarter 32-25, with Jayson Tatum scoring 10 points (3/5 FG, 1/2 3PT) and grabbing 2 rebounds, Jaylen Brown adding 8 points and 1 assist, and Orlando’s Paolo Banchero managing 6 points and 2 rebounds. Tatum’s early scoring and Boston’s defensive pressure stifled Orlando, covering the spread comfortably.

Bet ID 203014: NBA - Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers, Pick: Cavaliers Over 58.5 1st Half Total

Placed with Bet365 AU as a single team total bet for 1.00 unit at 1.80 odds. Result: Win, return 1.80, profit 0.80.

Comments/Game Notes: Cleveland’s balanced offense, driven by Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, was poised to exploit Miami’s slower defensive pace, with the Cavaliers averaging 60.3 first-half points in their last five games. The Cavaliers scored 62 points to Miami’s 55 in the first half, led by Mitchell’s 18 points (6/9 FG, 2/4 3PT) and 3 assists, Garland’s 12 points and 4 assists, and Evan Mobley’s 10 points and 5 rebounds. Mitchell’s second-quarter surge and Garland’s playmaking pushed Cleveland over the 58.5-point line.

Bet ID 203015: NHL - Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs, Pick: Auston Matthews 1+ Points w/ Mitchell Marner 1+ Points

Placed with Bet365 AU as a same-game multi points bet for 1.00 unit at 1.71 odds. Result: Win, return 1.71, profit 0.71.

Comments/Game Notes: Auston Matthews, averaging 1.4 points per game, and Mitchell Marner, averaging 1.6 points per game, are Toronto’s offensive cornerstones, making this a high-probability multi. The Maple Leafs defeated the Senators 4-2, with Matthews recording 1 goal and 1 assist (2 points) and Marner contributing 2 assists (2 points). Matthews’ first-period goal and Marner’s two assists ensured both players hit the 1+ points mark, securing the win.

Bet ID 203016: NBA - Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets, Pick: Warriors Head to Head

Placed with Bet365 AU as a single head-to-head bet for 1.00 unit at 2.00 odds. Result: Win, return 2.00, profit 1.00.

Comments/Game Notes: Golden State’s experience and Stephen Curry’s clutch scoring gave them an edge over Houston’s younger roster, with the Warriors winning 7 of their last 10 games outright. The Warriors won 112-108, led by Curry’s 28 points (10/18 FG, 5/9 3PT) and 7 assists, Klay Thompson’s 20 points and 4 rebounds, and Houston’s Jalen Green scoring 24 points with 3 assists. Curry’s late three-pointer and Thompson’s consistent scoring secured the outright win.

Bet ID 203017: AFL - Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats, Pick: Over 11.5 Scoring Shots 1st Quarter (Combined)

Placed with Bet365 AU as a single scoring shots bet for 2.50 units at 1.87 odds. Result: Win, return 4.68, profit 2.18.

Comments/Game Notes: Hawthorn, averaging 6.8 scoring shots, and Geelong, averaging 7.2 scoring shots, showed strong first-quarter outputs, supporting the over bet. The teams combined for 13 scoring shots (Hawks 7, Cats 6) in the first quarter, with Geelong’s Tom Hawkins scoring 2 goals and 1 behind and Hawthorn’s Luke Breust adding 2 goals. Both teams’ aggressive starts led to a high-scoring first quarter, clearing the 11.5 line with ease.

Bet ID 203018: NRL - Parramatta Eels vs Wests Tigers, Pick: Both Teams to Score 20+ Points

Placed with Bet365 AU as a single both-to-score bet for 1.00 unit at 2.30 odds. Result: Win, return 2.30, profit 1.30.

Comments/Game Notes: Parramatta, averaging 24.6 points per game, and Wests Tigers, averaging 22.8 points per game, showed strong offensive trends, favoring the over 20+ points for both. The Eels won 28-24, with Mitchell Moses scoring 1 try and converting 4/4 attempts, and Api Koroisau of the Tigers scoring 1 try with 3 assists. A competitive, high-scoring game ensured both teams surpassed 20 points.

Bet ID 203020: NRL - Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos, Pick: Broncos Over 16.5 Points

Placed with TAB as a single team total bet for 1.00 unit at 1.85 odds. Result: Win, return 1.85, profit 0.85.

Comments/Game Notes: Brisbane’s dynamic attack, led by Reece Walsh and averaging 18.4 points per game, was expected to exploit Canterbury’s defensive lapses. The Broncos won 22-16, with Walsh scoring 1 try and recording 2 assists, and Adam Reynolds converting 3/3 attempts with 1 try assist. Walsh’s dynamic play and Reynolds’ kicking accuracy pushed Brisbane over the 16.5-point line.

Bet ID 203022: NRL - Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos, Pick: Both Teams to Score 20+ Points

Placed with TAB as a single points bet for 1.00 unit at 3.60 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.

Comments/Game Notes: Despite both teams’ offensive potential, Canterbury’s defense tightened, limiting their scoring. The Broncos won 22-16, with Reece Walsh scoring 1 try and 2 assists for Brisbane, and Matt Burton scoring 1 try and converting 2/2 attempts for the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs fell short of 20 points, as Brisbane’s defense stifled their late-game efforts, resulting in a loss.

Bet ID 203023: AFL - Sydney Swans vs Gold Coast Suns, Pick: Suns Over 6.5 1st Quarter Scoring Shots

Placed with Bet365 AU as a single scoring shots bet for 1.00 unit at 1.97 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.

Comments/Game Notes: The Suns averaged 6.8 first-quarter scoring shots, but Sydney’s elite defense was expected to challenge their output. The Suns managed only 5 scoring shots in the first quarter, with Ben King scoring 1 goal and 1 behind, and Matt Rowell adding 1 behind. Sydney’s defensive pressure limited the Suns, falling short of the 6.5 line.

Bet ID 203024: NRL - Dolphins vs Canberra Raiders, Pick: H. Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) Most Metres

Placed with TAB as a single player prop bet for 1.00 unit at 3.25 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.

Comments/Game Notes: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow’s speed and breakaway potential made him a strong candidate for most metres, but Canberra’s Xavier Savage outperformed expectations. Savage led with 182 metres and 1 try, while Tabuai-Fidow recorded 145 metres and 1 try. Savage’s explosive runs outpaced Tabuai-Fidow, leading to the loss of the player prop bet.

Wins vs. Losses and ROI Summary

• Total Bets: 11
• Wins: 8
• Losses: 3
• Win Rate: 72.73% (8/11)
• Total Units Wagered: 12.50
• Total Return: 18.08
• Total Profit: 5.58
• ROI: (5.58 / 12.50) × 100 = 44.64%

Breakdown by Sport

• NBA: 3 bets, 3 wins, 0 losses, 2.54 profit (3.00 units wagered).
• NHL: 1 bet, 1 win, 0 losses, 0.71 profit (1.00 unit wagered).
• AFL: 2 bets, 1 win, 1 loss, 1.18 profit (3.50 units wagered).
• NRL: 5 bets, 3 wins, 2 losses, 1.15 profit (5.00 units wagered).

Analysis

The betting performance was strong, with a 72.73% win rate and a 44.64% ROI. NBA bets were perfect (3/3), driven by accurate predictions of first-quarter and first-half trends. The NHL same-game multi succeeded due to Matthews and Marner’s reliability. AFL bets split even, with the high-unit win on Hawthorn vs. Geelong offsetting the Suns’ loss. NRL bets had mixed results, with losses on the high-odds Bulldogs/Broncos 20+ points bet and Tabuai-Fidow’s player prop impacting profitability. Focusing on team totals and first-quarter performance proved effective, while player props and high-odds multis carried higher risk.

Conclusion

This betting period showcased disciplined wagering, particularly in NBA and NHL, with selective AFL and NRL bets. The 44.64% ROI reflects our team's strong handicapping ability, especially in basketball, where team trends were accurately predicted. We’ll look to get the big wins going again in May as we hone in on the upcoming Calendar of Sports across the NRL, AFL, Super Rugby and more. Stay tuned for next week's report, we’re confident we’ll have a huge month ahead.