Sports Tipping and Betting Weekly Review - Week 34, 2025

Week 34 of 2025 delivered another solid performance to keep August well in the Black as our monthly Units of Profit hit 27.62 units (a 45.65% ROI). We had as always a mix of AFL, NRL, and NRLW matches, with some standout wins. Nine bets were placed, resulting in six wins, one cash-out at 22% of the stake, and two losses. The total stake was 14.50 units, yielding a return of 18.49 units and a profit of 3.99 units, achieving a 27.52% ROI for the week. The standout bet was the Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights NRLW match (Bet ID 203284) which had won by Halftime! 

Bet Rankings and Match Notes

Bet ID 203275: August 22, AFL - Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies

Pick: Magpies H2H w/ Match Total Under 164.5
Placed with: Bet365 AU as a parlay (2-leg) bet for 1.00 unit at 2.40 odds.
Result: Win, return 2.40, profit 1.40.
Match Notes: Final Score: Magpies def. Demons 12.11 (83) to 10.7 (67). Collingwood’s 16-point win at the MCG, with a match total of 150 points, covered both parlay legs. Nick Daicos’ 32 disposals and defensive pressure limited Melbourne’s scoring. The Demons’ 2025 average of 78.2 points (per afl.com) and Collingwood’s home form made this a high-confidence pick. Though the Demons looked set to spoil the day as they lead deep into the 4th before Collingwood squared the match up at 75 with a goal from Lachlan Schultz and what proved to be the match winner and bet winner from Daniel McStay.

Bet ID 203276: August 23, NRLW - St George Illawarra Dragons vs Gold Coast Titans

Pick: Over 36.5 Total Points
Placed with: Bet365 AU as a single over/under bet for 1.00 unit at 1.91 odds.
Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
Match Notes: Final Score: Dragons def. Titans 22-16. Despite totaling 38 points, the bet was graded as a loss, possibly due to a scoring adjustment or bookmaker ruling, per nrl.com. The Dragons’ attack, led by Teagan Berry, and the Titans’ late tries pushed the score, but defensive efforts and missed conversions kept it tight. The Dragons’ 20.8 points per game average (per nrl.com) supported the pick, but it fell short as errors plagued the game.

Bet ID 203277: August 23, NRL - Dolphins vs Manly Sea Eagles

Pick: Sea Eagles Over 22.5 Total Points
Placed with: Bet365 AU as a single team total bet for 1.00 unit at 1.85 odds.
Result: Win, return 1.85, profit 0.85.
Match Notes: Final Score: Sea Eagles def. Dolphins 58-30. Manly’s 10-try onslaught at 4 Pines Park, led by Toluatua Koula’s hat-trick and Daly Cherry-Evans’ playmaking, crushed the 22.5-point line, per nrl.com. The Sea Eagles’ 28.4 points per game average (per nrl.com) and the Dolphins’ defensive struggles (26.7 points conceded per game) ensured a clear win.

Bet ID 203280: August 23, AFLW - Sydney Swans vs Gold Coast Suns

Pick: Swans -15.5
Placed with: Bet365 AU as a single spread bet for 1.00 unit at 1.91 odds.
Result: Win, return 1.91, profit 0.91.
Match Notes: Final Score: Swans def. Suns 10.8 (68) to 5.4 (34). Sydney’s 34-point margin covered the -15.5 spread, per afl.com. Chloe Molloy’s three goals and the Suns’ 28% disposal efficiency in the second half sealed Sydney’s dominance. The Swans’ 75% home win rate in 2025 justified this selection.

Bet ID 203281: August 23, AFLW - St Kilda Saints vs Melbourne Demons

Pick: Demons -14.5
Placed with: Bet365 AU as a single spread bet for 1.00 unit at 1.91 odds.
Result: Win, return 1.91, profit 0.91.
Match Notes: Final Score: Demons def. Saints 12.6 (78) to 8.5 (53). Melbourne’s 25-point win covered the -14.5 spread, Tyla Hanks’ 28 disposals and two goals drove the Demons’ control, despite a third-quarter push from St Kilda. Melbourne’s 18.2-point average margin against mid-tier teams made this a reliable bet.

Bet ID 203282: August 23, NRLW - Sydney Roosters vs Parramatta Eels

Pick: Roosters Over 5.5 Tries
Placed with: Bet365 AU as a single tries bet for 1.00 unit at 2.10 odds.
Result: Win, return 2.10, profit 1.10.
Match Notes: Final Score: Roosters def. Eels 38-12. The Roosters’ six tries, led by Isabelle Kelly’s two, cleared the 5.5-try line, Parramatta’s defense, conceding 4.8 tries per game in 2025 (per nrl.com), struggled against Sydney’s attack, averaging 6.2 tries per game. This bet capitalized on a clear mismatch.

Bet ID 203283: August 23, NRL - Sydney Roosters vs Parramatta Eels

Pick: Roosters Over 5.5 Tries
Placed with: Bet365 AU as a single tries bet for 1.00 unit at 2.20 odds.
Result: Cashed Out (22.00%), return 0.22, profit -0.78.
Match Notes: Final Score: Roosters def. Eels 30-10. The Roosters scored five tries, missing the 5.5-try mark, per nrl.com. Sam Walker’s playmaking created chances, but Parramatta’s defense held late. The early cash-out at 22% was a cautious move amid in-game uncertainty, reducing losses on a bet that ultimately failed, Rooster just looked terrible again this week and have real concerns moving ahead into the back end of the season.

Bet ID 203284: August 24, NRLW - Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights

Pick: Broncos Over 3.5 Tries
Placed with: Bet365 AU as a single tries bet for 5.00 units at 1.62 odds.
Result: Win, return 8.10, profit 3.10.
Match Notes: Final Score: Broncos def. Knights 46-16. Brisbane scored nine tries in a commanding performance at McDonald Jones Stadium, easily clearing the 3.5-try line, per nrl.com. Ali Brigginshaw’s playmaking and Romy Teitzel’s try and five goals (14 points) overwhelmed the Knights’ defense, which conceded 4.1 tries per game in 2025 (per nrl.com). Brisbane’s 5.3 tries per game average and disciplined attack, as noted by coach Scott Prince, made this high-unit bet the week’s top performer. Winning bets by halftime is always a nice feeling.

Bet ID 203285: August 24, AFL - Fremantle Dockers vs Western Bulldogs

Pick: Bulldogs 2+ Goals Every Quarter
Placed with: TAB as a single goal/s bet for 2.50 units at 1.50 odds.
Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -2.50.
Match Notes: Final Score: Dockers def. Bulldogs 14.9 (93) to 11.12 (78). The Bulldogs scored only one goal in the second quarter, failing the bet, per afl.com. Andrew Brayshaw’s 34 disposals and Fremantle’s pressure stifled the Bulldogs’ attack. Despite a 2.4 goals per quarter average in 2025 (per afl.com), this ambitious bet fell short.

Weekly Performance Overview

• Total Units Staked: 14.50
• Total Return: 18.49
• Total Profit: 3.99
• ROI: 27.52% (3.99 / 14.50 * 100)
• Wins: 6 (Bet IDs 203275, 203277, 203280, 203281, 203282, 203284)
• Losses: 2 (Bet IDs 203276, 203285)
• Cashed Out: 1 (Bet ID 203283)

Analysis and Takeaways

The week’s 27.52% ROI was driven by six wins, with the Brisbane Broncos NRLW bet delivering the largest profit at 3.10 units, thanks to their nine-try rout. The Collingwood Magpies parlay showcased the value of combining head-to-head and total points bets. However losses on the Dragons-Titans over and Bulldogs’ goal prop highlighted risks in tight lines and multi-quarter props. The Roosters NRL cash-out at 22% mitigated losses but underscored the need for better in-game judgment as the Roosters are a very up and down side. For the Bulldogs who look likely to miss the 8 off a loss to the Dockers who kept them to just 3 behinds in the 2nd left our last bet of the week a loss.

Conclusion

Week 34 of 2025 was a profitable betting week, with a 27.52% ROI reflecting disciplined picks and favorable match outcomes. Six wins out of nine bets, bolstered by reliable data, drove success. The Brisbane Broncos NRLW bet exemplified the value of high-unit stakes on strong statistical trends. As the AFL and NRL finals approach, Week 35 offers opportunities to leverage playoff intensity, focusing on refined prop bets and avoiding high-risk multi-leg wagers. Lets crush this last week and hope to exceed 30+ units in profit for the month.