Weekly Betting Report: Week 36, September 1-7, 2025

Summary

It was that week all punters hope to avoid, when you have the close calls go against you there really isnt anything you can do. The reads were there, the form was there, the end result was we went down. This report analyzes our betting outcomes for Week 36 (September 1-7, 2025), covering nine bets across rugby league (NRL and NRLW), Australian football (AFL and AFLW), international rugby union, and American college football (NCAAF). We staked 18.00 units, achieving a total return of only 5.19 units and a net profit of -12.81 units, a losing week.

Key Statistics:

• Total Bets Placed: 9
• Total Units Staked: 18.00
• Total Return: 5.19 units
• Net Profit/Loss: -12.81 units
• Win Rate: 22.22% (2/9; 25% on resolved bets, excluding cash-out)
• Average Odds: 1.79 (across all singles and multis)
• Largest Win: +0.77 units (AFL scoring shots)
• Largest Loss: -5.00 units (NRLW Broncos tries, NCAAF multi)
• Breakdown by Bet Type: Singles (8 bets, 13 units, -1.81 net); Multi (1 bet, 5 units, -5.00 net); Cash-out (1 bet, 1 unit, +0.70 net)
• Performance by Sport: NRL/NRLW (4 bets, 9 units, -7.28 net; 25% win rate); AFL/AFLW (2 bets, 2 units, +1.47 net; 100% success including cash-out); Rugby Union (2 bets, 2 units, -2.00 net; 0% win rate); NCAAF (1 bet, 5 units, -5.00 net; 0% win rate)

Our strategy focused on over/under markets for tries, points, and scoring shots, leveraging team form and historical data. Try-based bets underperformed (1/4 wins, averaging 4.3 tries vs. 5.5 projected), impacted by defensive resilience and errors (e.g., Broncos’ knock-ons). AFL bets showed strong predictive accuracy, while the NCAAF multi failure highlighted player-prop risks. Future adjustments might include capping multi-leg bets at three components, refining defensive matchup models, and incorporating weather and error-rate factors.

Bet-by-Bet Analysis

BET ID 203295: NRLW - Canberra Raiders vs Sydney Roosters (September 5, 2025)

Pick: Sydney Roosters Over 5.5 Tries
Stake: 2.00 units @ 1.67 odds
Result: Loss (-2.00 units)

The Sydney Roosters maintained their unbeaten NRLW Telstra Premiership run with a 26-14 win over the Canberra Raiders at Allianz Stadium in Round 10. However, they scored exactly 5 tries, missing our over 5.5 line due to Canberra’s second-half defensive effort in wet conditions.

Score: Roosters 26 (5 tries, 3 conversions); Raiders 14 (3 tries, 1 conversion).
Try Scorers: Roosters - Tarryn Aiken (1, dummy and dart), Mia Wood (2, right-side shifts), Jessica Sergis (1), Jasmin Strange (1); Raiders - unspecified.
Key Player: Aiken, with 1 try and 3 assists via cutout passes, exploited Canberra’s edges. Wood’s double came from structured plays, but no tries after the 52nd minute capped scoring.

Stats: Roosters held 55% possession, ran 1,248m (vs. Raiders’ 892m), and completed 80% of sets. Canberra’s Olivia Kernick (202m, 39 tackles) led a defensive stand that forced 10 Roosters errors. Our model projected 6.8 tries, overestimating conversion rates in adverse weather. This loss highlights the need for weather-adjusted try models.

BET ID 203296: NRL - New Zealand Warriors vs Manly Sea Eagles (September 5, 2025)

Pick: Manly Sea Eagles Over 4.5 Tries
Stake: 1.00 unit @ 1.72 odds
Result: Win (+0.72 units)

In a Round 27 NRL Premiership thriller at 4 Pines Park, the New Zealand Warriors edged Manly Sea Eagles 27-26 in golden-point extra time, marking Daly Cherry-Evans’ final game. Our bet on Manly’s tries succeeded with exactly 5 tries in a high-scoring affair.

Score: Warriors 27 (5 tries, 3 conversions, 1 penalty); Sea Eagles 26 (5 tries, 3 conversions).
Try Scorers: Sea Eagles - Jason Saab (1, Cherry-Evans grubber), Reuben Garrick (1, short ball), Tolutau Koula (1, fullback dart), two others unspecified; Warriors - unspecified.
Key Player: Cherry-Evans, with two try assists via kicks, including a bomb for Saab.

Stats: Manly held 52% possession, ran 1,456m (Tom Trbojevic: 180m), completed 85% sets, and made 6 line breaks. Total tries: 10. Our model projected 4.2 tries, underestimating Manly’s backline overlaps. Warriors’ late defense nearly cost the bet, but attacking metrics validated our pick.

BET ID 203297: AFL - Hawthorn Hawks vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (September 6, 2025)

Pick: Over 11.5 1st Quarter Scoring Shots
Stake: 1.00 unit @ 1.77 odds
Result: Win (+0.77 units)

Hawthorn upset the Giants 107 (16.11) to 88 (13.10) in an Elimination Final at Engie Stadium. The first quarter produced 14 scoring shots, comfortably clearing our line.

1st Quarter: Hawks 7.2 (9 shots: 7 goals, 2 behinds); Giants 3.2 (5 shots: 3 goals, 2 behinds).
Key Players: Hawks - Jai Newcombe (goal, 5 clearances), Connor Macdonald (goal), Nick Watson (snap from 45m), Karl Amon (set shot); Giants - Jesse Hogan, Toby Greene.
Stats: 28 inside-50s (Hawks 16, Giants 12), Hawks won clearances 8-5, with 64% shot efficiency. Total shots hit by the 20-minute mark (10 shots).

Our model projected 12.3 shots, aligning with finals trends. Newcombe’s contested work set the tempo, validating quarter-specific props in high-stakes AFL games.

BET ID 203298: Rugby Union - Argentina vs Australia (September 6, 2025)

Pick: Over 6.5 Tries
Stake: 1.00 unit @ 1.68 odds
Result: Loss (-1.00 unit)

Australia’s Wallabies won a 28-24 Rugby Championship thriller in Townsville, sealed by an 86th-minute try. Only 5 tries were scored, missing our over.

Tries: Australia - Angus Bell (1, maul), Joseph Sua’ali’i (2, midfield breaks); Argentina - Mateo Carreras (1), Juan Cruz Mallia (1).
Key Player: Sua’ali’i (120m, 2 tries).
1st Half: Argentina led 21-7. Total Points: 52 (20 from tries).

Stats: 14 handling errors and 8 scrum resets slowed play. Argentina’s 5/6 penalty kicks prioritized points over tries. Our 7.2-try projection overestimated backline freedom, missing Australia’s forward-heavy approach and Argentina’s conservative play.

BET ID 203299: NRLW - Cronulla Sharks vs Canterbury Bulldogs (September 6, 2025)

Pick: Cronulla Sharks Over 4.5 Tries
Stake: 1.00 unit @ 1.90 odds
Result: Loss (-1.00 unit)

The Canterbury Bulldogs upset the Cronulla Sharks 24-14 at Accor Stadium in Round 10, limiting the Sharks to 3 tries.

Score: Bulldogs 24 (4 tries, 4 conversions); Sharks 14 (3 tries, 1 conversion).
Try Scorers: Sharks - Georgia Hannaway (edge raid), Jada Taylor (Bulldogs error), Ellie Johnston (consolation); Bulldogs - unspecified.
Key Player: Bulldogs’ Ellie Johnston (150m, 32 tackles) led defensively.

Stats: Sharks had 48% possession, 82% set completion, but only 4 line breaks and 12 errors. Our 5.1-try projection underestimated Bulldogs’ second-half surge (two tries in five minutes), which shifted momentum.

BET ID 203300: Rugby Union - South Africa vs New Zealand (September 6, 2025)

Pick: Over 23.5 1st Half Total Points
Stake: 1.00 unit @ 1.90 odds
Result: Loss (-1.00 unit)

New Zealand’s All Blacks won 24-17 at Eden Park, but the first half yielded only 17 points.

1st Half: NZ 14-3 (Emoni Narawa try, Will Jordan try, Damian McKenzie conversion; Handré Pollard penalty).
Full Score: NZ 24 (3 tries, 2 conversions, 1 penalty); SA 17 (2 tries, 1 conversion).
Key Player: Jordan (try, 85m run).

Stats: SA’s 9 errors and 6 scrum resets slowed play. Our 25.4-point projection overestimated scoring in a physical, low-scoring half, highlighting the need for tighter defensive adjustments.

BET ID 203301: NCAAF - Stanford vs BYU Cougars (September 7, 2025)

Pick: SameGame Multi - LJ Martin 1+ TD, 60+ Rushing Yards, BYU Over 23.5 Points, Score in Both Halves
Stake: 5.00 units @ 1.83 odds
Result: Loss (-5.00 units)

The BYU Cougars dominated Stanford 27-3 at LaVell Edwards Stadium, improving to 2-0 while Stanford fell to 0-2. Despite BYU covering the points and halves legs, LJ Martin’s failure to score a touchdown sank our multi.

Score: BYU 27 (3 TDs, 3 FGs, 1 safety); Stanford 3 (1 FG).
Scoring Summary:

• 1st Half: BYU 13-0. Bear Bachmeier’s 3-yard TD run capped a 6-play, 85-yard drive (7-0). Two Stanford turnovers led to Will Ferrin’s field goals (36y, 30y) after a 26-yard interception return and a strip-sack recovery at Stanford’s 5 (13-0).
• 2nd Half: BYU 14-3. Sione Moa’s 8-yard TD run (3:36 Q3) and a safety (blocked punt or grounding) pushed the lead to 24-0. A late Ferrin FG sealed 27-3. Stanford’s lone FG came in Q4.

Key Players:

• LJ Martin (BYU RB): 18 carries, 110 yards (6.1 ypc, 47y long), 0 TDs. Martin’s 47-yard and 11-yard runs set up the opening TD, clearing 60+ yards early. However, he had 0 TDs on three red-zone touches, he actually crossed the line, which made it even worse but wasn't reviewed, with BYU settling for FGs twice (post-fumble at Stanford’s 5) and Moa taking the goal-line carry. Stanford’s David Bailey (8 tackles) led a goal-line stand.
• Bear Bachmeier (BYU QB): 175 passing yards, 3-yard rushing TD, targeted Chase Roberts (5 catches, 84y).
• Sione Moa (BYU RB): 7 carries, 29 yards, 1 TD (8y).
• Stanford (Ben Gulbranson QB): 142 passing yards, 2 INTs, 42 team rushing yards.
• BYU Defense: 3 turnovers (2 INTs, 1 fumble), 3 sacks, 7 TFLs, held Stanford to 2/13 third downs.

Stats:

• BYU: 332 total yards (157 rush, 175 pass), 6/12 third downs, 4/4 red-zone scores (50% TD rate).
• Stanford: 161 yards (42 rush, 119 pass), 2/13 third downs, 1/1 red-zone (FG).
• Possession: BYU 31:45, Stanford 28:15.

Our 65% success projection (based on Martin’s 25% red-zone TD rate and BYU’s 70% scoring efficiency) missed due to conservative play-calling (FGs over TDs) and Moa’s goal-line role. Martin’s yardage validated our model, but multi-leg dependency on TD outcomes proved risky. BYU’s defense (No. 15 in points allowed post-game) offers future betting value.

BET ID 203302: NRLW - Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors (September 7, 2025)

Pick: Brisbane Broncos Over 5.5 Tries
Stake: 5.00 units @ 1.80 odds
Result: Loss (-5.00 units)

The Brisbane Broncos defeated the New Zealand Warriors 26-6 in Hamilton, ending the Warriors’ finals hopes. The Broncos scored exactly 5 tries, falling short of our over 5.5 line due to handling errors, bad carries, and knock-ons in the second half.

Score: Broncos 26 (5 tries, 3 conversions); Warriors 6 (1 try, 1 conversion).
Try Scorers: Broncos - Tamika Upton (19’, 26’, including a 40m solo run), Shalom Sauaso (29’, edge break), Mele Hufanga (45’, grubber finish), Lauren Dam (56’, second-row surge); Warriors - Ivana Lauitiiti (post-halftime).
Key Player: Upton (2 tries, 180m run, 8 tackle breaks) dominated early, scoring twice in the first half. Her 26th-minute try, a 40-meter solo effort, showcased her speed, but the Broncos’ momentum waned.

Stats: Broncos held 62% possession, ran 1,320m, and made 8 line breaks but committed 14 errors (including multiple knock-ons) and several bad carries, particularly in the second half. Warriors’ defense, led by Shakira Baker (30 tackles) and Payton Takimoana (try-saving tackle), forced errors and limited further scoring. The Broncos completed 78% of sets but squandered 6 red-zone opportunities, converting only 5 into tries. Our model projected 6.2 tries based on Brisbane’s season average (5.8 tries/game), but underestimated the impact of errors and Warriors’ goal-line defense (45 first-half tackles). This loss hurt as the Bronocs dominated the game, there were too many errors, we’ll still be looking at the Broncos again next week, as they really are a scoring machine.

BET ID 203303: AFLW - Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles (September 7, 2025)

Pick: Over 68.5 Total Points
Stake: 1.00 unit @ 1.89 odds
Result: Cashed Out (170% return, +0.70 units)

West Coast rallied to win 64 (10.4) to 45 (7.3) at Mineral Resources Park, totaling 109 points. We cashed out at 85 points by three-quarter time, securing a 0.70-unit profit.

Key Scorers: Eagles - Riggs (2), Lewis (2); Power - Tahau (2).
Stats: 92 tackles, 45% kicking efficiency. Eagles’ five-goal Q4 sealed the over. Early cash-out locked in profit amid a tight contest.

Overall Statistics and Insights

Both the NRLW outstanding Try Scoring Teams both came up a try short 5  vs. 5.5 needed, with 1/4 wins, reflecting defensive resilience and errors (e.g., Broncos’ 14 errors). AFL bets excelled (61.5 shots/Q, 109 total points). The NCAAF multi (-5.00 units) and Broncos loss (-5.00 units) heavily impacted the result for the week. ROI: -71.17%. Win Rate: 22.22%.