Week 38 Betting Review: A Resilient Slate Delivers +7.59 Units and 25.3% ROI Amid NFL Fireworks and Finals Frenzy

Fresh off last week's bounce back win and an 18.11 unit profit, we're resetting the clock for Week 38's betting ledger and going again. It was a dynamic week from NFL Week 2's action, to explosive NCAAF's Week 4 clashes, was bookended by the AFL's prelim final and again a run at the NRLW's elimination semis, where we hit a 10 unit special.

This week's portfolio? 30 units across 18 bets, spanning NFL (10 plays), AFL (3), NCAAF (3), NRLW (2), and one cross-sport multi. The result: 12 wins, 6 losses, a tidy +7.59 unit profit, and a 25.3% ROI. No wild parlays dominating; instead, sharp edges on overs (75% hit rate) and NRLW tries (sweep) offset prop variance and multi heartbreak. Let's roll.

NFL: 10 Bets, 13 Units Staked, 6-4 Record, +1.31 Profit – Week 2's Underdog Surge and Offensive Fireworks

It was the start of our NFL Campaign for the 2025 season after summing up a little form from Week 1. We usually get full steam ahead after week 4 when you get the a better a view at how the teams are performing.

Week 2 flipped Week 1’s favorite-heavy script (11-5 ATS) with underdogs posting 7-6 ATS, driven by seven road wins, 4.2 YPC rushes, and 61.8% QB completion dips. Explosives ruled (12 games with 40+ yard TDs), fueling overs, but 28 turnovers and injuries (toe tweaks, ankles) hurt props. Our mix: team totals 4-1, props 2-1, multis 0-2. 13 units returned 14.31 units for a +1.31 profit to get the ball rolling.

Bears @ Lions (Sep 14, Week 2): Lions 52, Bears 21

BET ID: 203313 (SameGame Multi: Lions over 20.5 total + -4.5, 1U, 1.86 odds), Outcome: Win (+0.86)
BET ID: 203318 (Lions over 27.5 team total, 1U, 1.95), Outcome: Win (+0.95)
Detroit’s rout epitomized Week 2’s fireworks. Jared Goff tied a career-high five TD passes (334 yards, 28/36, 78%), with Amon-Ra St. Brown (3 TDs, 100+ first-half yards) feasting. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed 94 (7.8 YPC, 6-yard TD), Montgomery added a 1-yard score. Aidan Hutchinson’s sack and Brian Branch’s forced fumble (Campbell recovery) sparked 24 unanswered points. Caleb Williams showed flashes (207 yards, 2 TDs to Odunze: 28-, 6-yarders) but took two picks and 4 sacks; Chicago’s 78 rush yards exposed O-line woes. 73 total points smashed the 47.5 over (60% of Week 2 games topped 45). Insight: Bears’ 28th rush D (4.8 YPC allowed) and secondary youth were exploited; Detroit’s 72-play pace and 11-game home streak locked totals.

Browns @ Ravens (Sep 14, Week 2): Ravens 41, Browns 17

BET ID: 203314 (SameGame Multi: Ravens -5.5 + over 2.5 TDs + Jackson 20+ rush + Henry 60+ rush, 1U, 1.80), Outcome: Loss (-1)
Baltimore’s clinic washed away Week 1’s collapse, dominating 41-17. Lamar Jackson threw four TDs (199 yards, 45 rush), and special teams added a blocked punt TD. Defense harassed Joe Flacco (25/45, 199 yards, INT, fumble; 6/18 under pressure for 24 yards); Myles Garrett’s 1.5 sacks bottled Derrick Henry (23 yards/11 carries, 2.1 YPC, lowest since 2021). Second-half explosion (31 points, third-most in franchise history) featured Wiggins’ 61-yard INT return setup (Jackson’s 2-yard TD to Walker). 58 points fit Week 2’s aerial trend (QBs avg. 2.1 TDs). Insight: Henry’s divisional dud sank multi; Jackson’s legs cleared, but 18 RBs under 4 YPC league-wide screamed variance.

Jaguars @ Bengals (Sep 14, Week 2): Bengals 31, Jaguars 27

BET ID: 203315 (Burrow over 1.5 pass TDs + Etienne 50+ rush, 1U, 2.55), Outcome: Loss (-1)
Cincinnati’s thriller saw Jake Browning rally from 17-10 halftime (Burrow’s toe injury: 192 yards/1 TD) for a 31-27 win, his 2 TDs including a 4-yard game-winner to Tee Higgins (1:12 left). Trevor Lawrence countered (289 yards/3 TDs), but two INTs (Geno Stone’s red-zone pick) cost; Travis Etienne grinded 71 yards/score. Ja’Marr Chase’s 14/158/TD and Higgins’ 42-yard bomb fueled 58 points (Week 2 QB TD avg: 2.1). Insight: Burrow’s Q2 injury flipped +EV prop; Jags’ secondary (300+ air yards) echoed Week 2 upsets.

Giants @ Cowboys (Sep 14, Week 2): Cowboys 40, Giants 37 (OT)

BET ID: 203316 (Prescott over 1.5 pass TDs, 1U, 1.76), Outcome: Win (+0.76)
NFC East chaos: Five Q4 lead changes, Brandon Aubrey’s 46-yard OT FG sealed Dallas’ ninth straight vs. NYG (Prescott’s 14th win). Dak Prescott’s 412 yards/3 TDs (CeeDee Lamb: 148/score) matched Russell Wilson’s 389/3 (64-yard Malik Nabers bomb); OT INT doomed Giants. 77 points (Week 2 OT trend: 3 games) saw 450+ yards each (12 games over 400 offense). Insight: Dallas’ 38 PPG vs. Giants locked prop; variance rewarded clutch QBs.

Eagles @ Chiefs (Sep 14, Week 2): Eagles 20, Chiefs 17

BET ID: 203317 (Multi leg: Mahomes 1+ TD + Barkley 10+ rushes + both over 9.5 1H pts + both score both halves, 1U, 4.07), Outcome: Loss (-1)
Super Bowl rematch grinder bucked Week 2 scoring (43 points, 40% unders): Philly’s D snagged two Patrick Mahomes INTs (187 yards/1 TD), Jalen Hurts rushed 91/TD. Saquon Barkley: 12 rushes/88/TD; Mukuba’s end-zone INT off Kelce (41-yard return) sealed. O-lines struggled (3 sacks each). Insight: Chiefs’ O-line injuries (48 league sacks) capped Mahomes; 1H unders (20 pts) burned parlay.

Falcons @ Vikings (Sep 15, Week 2): Falcons 22, Vikings 6

BET ID: 203319 (Falcons over 1.5 FGs, 1U, 1.86), Outcome: Win (+0.86)
Atlanta’s upset: Bijan Robinson’s 143 rush/TD, Younghoe Koo’s five FGs (54-yarder) smothered J.J. McCarthy (4 INTs, 5 sacks, 278/2 TDs). Kirk Cousins: 241/2 TDs exploited MIN’s 30th secondary; five turnovers echoed 28 league-wide. Insight: ATL’s red-zone woes (2/4 TDs) + Koo’s 92% cashed; Vikings’ secondary mirrored 2024 upsets.

Buccaneers @ Texans (Sep 15, Week 2): Buccaneers 20, Texans 19

BET ID: 203320 (Bucs over 13.5 team total, 4U, 1.28), Outcome: Win (+1.12)
TB’s road grit: Baker Mayfield’s 281/2 TDs + Rachaad White’s :06 GW 2-yard rush (80-yard drive) edged Houston; C.J. Stroud’s 236 failed 2-pt. Bucs rushed 169, D held HOU to 89/2 TOs; 39 points rewarded low totals (7-6 underdog ATS). Insight: TB’s 4th rush D forced air; road-dog value shone.

Chargers @ Raiders (Sep 15, Week 2): Chargers 20, Raiders 9

BET ID: 203321 (Chargers over 23.5 team total, 1U, 1.66), Outcome: Loss (-1)
Harbaugh’s D clinic: 3 INTs off Aidan O’Connell (199 yards), Justin Herbert’s 242/2 TDs; run game 128 yards clock-controlled, but 0/3 red-zone. Joey Bosa’s 2 sacks stifled LV (189 total); 29 points fit grind (no 1H TD). Insight: O-line (4 sacks) capped; mirrored Week 2 D upsets.

Dolphins @ Bills (Sep 18, Week 3): Bills 31, Dolphins 21

BET ID: 203322 (Bills over 30.5 team total, 1U, 1.76), Outcome: Win (+0.76)
Buffalo’s divisional dominance: Josh Allen’s 213/3 TDs, James Cook’s 108 rush/TD powered 31; Terrel Bernard’s late INT sealed 14th straight vs. MIA. Tua Tagovailoa’s 211/2 TDs rallied amid 11 penalties (98 yards); 52 points hit over. Insight: MIA’s 32nd D (33 PPG allowed) baited over.

Cross-Game Multi (Sep 14, Week 2 Various)

BET ID: 203317 (Lions/Bills/Ravens H2H + props: Allen/Jackson/Burrow/Prescott/Mahomes TDs, Barkley rushes, overs, 1U, 4.07), Outcome: Loss (-1)
Ambitious parlay crashed on unders, Burrow/Henry duds. Insight: Week 2 variance (injuries, 40% unders) crushed 12-legger.

AFL: 3 Bets, 3 Units Staked, 2-1 Record, +0.70 Profit – Cats’ Midfield Mayhem

Geelong’s MCG prelim dominance (transition efficiency No. 1) overwhelmed Hawthorn 115-85, booking GF vs. Collingwood/Brisbane winner. But it wasn’t all the Cats. After a slow start likely due to coming off the rest week (it’s something we talk about a lot how teams come off a weeks rest), Hawks lead 22-9 after the first and we looked to be in trouble. It was a 5 goal 4 behind 2nd for the Cats that had them up by a point 43-42 at the break. It was all the Cats in the 2nd half kicking a whopping 11 goals 6 behinds for a 72 point haul to put the Hawks into the offseason. On review Cats Over 86.5 wow, that’s a bet we’ll be looking at closely for the Grand Final where Geelong look like they’ll score a 100 again.

Hawthorn @ Geelong (Sep 19): Cats 115, Hawks 85

BET ID: 203323 (Cats over 86.5 total, 1U, 1.85), Outcome: Win (+0.85)
BET ID: 203324 (Over 11.5 Q1 shots, 1U, 1.95), Outcome: Loss (-1)
BET ID: 203325 (Cats over 12.5 goals, 1U, 1.85), Outcome: Win (+0.85)
Patrick Dangerfield’s vintage (3 goals/28 disp/8 clearances) ignited 115; Max Holmes ran rampant post-2022 hamstring. Q1 slop (8 shots, Hawks’ 3-1 lead) bit shots prop; 17 goals cleared totals. Insight: Geelong’s transition cashed; Q1 conservatism burned.

NCAAF: 3 Bets, 3 Units Staked, 1-2 Record, -1.12 Profit – Week 4 Upsets Burn Spreads

42% upset rate flipped lines; Big Ten openers chaotic.

Iowa @ Rutgers (Sep 19): Iowa 38, Rutgers 28

BET ID: 203326 (Patterson over 43.5 rush, 1U, 1.86), Outcome: Loss (-1)
Mark Gronowski’s 3 rush TDs/186 pass rallied Iowa from 28-24 HT; Athan Kaliakmanis’ 312 air fueled early, but Rexroth’s late INT setup score. Jaziun Patterson’s 32 yards flopped. Insight: Rutgers’ 18th rush D (4.8 YPC dip) buried prop.

Cal @ San Diego State (Sep 20): SDSU 34, Cal 0

BET ID: 203331 (Cal -13.5, 1U, 1.84), Outcome: Loss (-1)
Aztecs’ shutout: Chris Johnson’s 97-yard INT TD, Dwayne McDougle’s 35-yard fumble TD; Cal 187 yards/5 sacks. Insight: Cal’s O-line trap collapse; SDSU’s first power shutout since 2010.

Michigan State @ USC (Sep 20): USC 45, MSU 31

BET ID: 203332 (Over 55.5, 1U, 1.88), Outcome: Win (+0.88)
Jayden Maiava’s 3 pass/2 rush TDs + Makai Lemon’s 40-yard score; Aidan Chiles’ 3 pass TDs/75-yard late bomb hit 76 points (USC 517 yards, 10 MSU pens). Insight: USC’s No. 1 O ignited; penalties fueled smash.

NRLW: 2 Bets, 11 Units Staked, 2-0 Record, +6.00 Profit – Finals Tries Erupt

The NRLW has been a cash cow the past 4 weeks as we’ve honed in on the Bookies giving odds for Tries in the Match. The opening markets for the Knights was set initially at 5,5 for $2.30 (+130), and we were keen to take that in the 3-5 unit range, however on the day, which turned out to be warm and sunny, the market dropped to 3.5 tries for $1.60, if the bookies were to put up a series of markets we would definitely be staking those higher returns. It was the Knights that came out hot and the bet cashed easily as the Knights went on to score 6! 

Titans @ Knights (Sep 20): Knights 34, Titans 20

BET ID: 203328 (Knights over 3.5 tries, 10U, 1.60), Outcome: Win (+6.00)
Shanice Parker’s double, Keighley Simpson, Olivia Higgins, Kayla Romoniuk (6 tries, 9 total); Tamika Southwell’s bombs/HT 18-0. Insight: Wind/HT edge undervalued finals.

Sharks @ Cowboys (Sep 20): Sharks 24, Cowboys 18

BET ID: 203329 (Over 5.5 total tries, 1U, 1.70), Outcome: Win (+0.70)
Cassie Staples, Chantay Kiria-Ratu, Georgia Hannaway (Sharks), Francesca Goldthorp, Abigail Roache (NQ; 6 total); Hannaway’s HIA return/try, Chester’s late bid. Insight: Sharks’ 3-0 HT + NQ’s 12 penalties pushed volume.

The NRLW Preliminary Finals are up next and the 2 heavy weights Roosters and Broncos look set to come up swinging, and we’ll be taking a very close look at tries again this week.

Wins/Losses Review and ROI Breakdown

ROI this week 25.3%. $100 punter won $759. With one more week to go in September we’re 12.89 units in the black. We’ll have a big card coming again this weekend, with the College Football matches starting Friday, NFL TNF should be an interesting game as bookies can’t split them, AFL Grand Final Saturday, Women’s NRLW finals week 2 and more. Let’s finish this month off strong!