March off to a Flyer!

Welcome to the Week 10 2025 BTS Sports Betting Review, new month and new outcomes. We’ve got the AFL and NRL Seasons underway, Super Rugby, NBA, NHL and our staple Tennis bets to look forward to over the next couple of months.

After a successful first two months of the year, where we’ve posted 52.02 units in profit, we head into March and take on the bookies and look to continue our winning ways. This week featured a diverse range of sports, including tennis, rugby, NRL, AFL, and NHL, with a total of 22 bets placed, resulting in 16 wins and 6 losses for an impressive 10.68 units profit and ROI of 48.55%. 

Bet Summaries and Match Analysis

Bet ID 202886: March 4, Tennis - J. Duckworth vs. L. Tu (Indian Wells Qualifier), Pick: Under 24.5 Games
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single games bet for 1.00 unit at 1.83 odds. Result: Win, return 1.83, profit 0.83.
Match Notes: Final Score: Duckworth def. Tu 6-4, 6-3 (22 games). The Indian Wells qualifier match was tightly contested, favoring a lower game count due to both players’ aggressive baseline play. Duckworth’s strong serving (averaging 7.2 aces per match in 2024 per ATP stats) and Tu’s defensive counterpunching kept rallies short, resulting in 22 games, under the 24.5 line. In 2024, Duckworth had a 62% first serve percentage and saved 68% of break points, while Tu had a similar defensive style with a 58% break points saved rate, contributing to shorter sets. Their head-to-head was limited, but both showed recent form with Duckworth winning 55% of his matches and Tu at 48%. No significant injuries were reported, though Tu had a minor ankle concern earlier in the season (source: ATP Tour).

Bet ID 202887: March 5, Tennis - J. Thompson vs. C. Moutet (Indian Wells), Pick: J. Thompson to Win Match
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single head-to-head bet for 1.00 unit at 1.90 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
Match Notes: Final Score: Moutet def. Thompson 6-4, 4-6, 7-5. Thompson’s consistent baseline game (2024 win rate of 62% on hard courts per ATP stats) made him a slight favorite. However, Moutet’s unorthodox style disrupted Thompson, leading to an upset. Moutet capitalized on Thompson’s 4 double faults and 68% first-serve points won (source: ATP Tour). In 2024, Thompson averaged 5.4 aces per match with a 65% first serve percentage, converting 42% of break points, while Moutet had a 52% win rate on hard courts and excelled in break points converted at 45%. Recent form showed Thompson winning 60% of his last 10 matches, but Moutet’s spin-heavy play (averaging 3.2 aces but high unforced errors at 28 per match) proved decisive. No injuries were reported, but Thompson struggled with Moutet’s spin-heavy play.

Bet ID 202888: March 6, Rugby - Super Rugby - Brumbies vs. Blues, Pick: Blues Over 2.5 1st Half Team Tries
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single tries bet for 1.00 unit at 2.12 odds. Result: Win, return 2.12, profit 1.12.
Match Notes: Final Score: Blues 34, Brumbies 20. The Blues’ attacking prowess was on display, scoring three tries in the first half. They averaged 3.8 tries per game in 2024 (source: Super Rugby stats), and their backline, led by Beauden Barrett, exploited Brumbies’ defensive lapses. In their 2024 semi-final matchup, the Blues dominated with a 43-21 win over Brumbies, gaining 512 meters and making 12 clean breaks. The Blues had a 75% tackle success rate and averaged 28.4 points per game, while Brumbies conceded 22.6 points on average. No major injuries were reported, though Brumbies’ prop Allan Alaalatoa was monitored for a knee issue (source: rugby.com.au).

Bet ID 202889: March 6, NRL - Newcastle Knights vs. Wests Tigers, Pick: Over 44.5 Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single over/under bet for 1.00 unit at 1.91 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
Match Notes: Final Score: Knights 20, Tigers 18. The match was expected to be high-scoring due to both teams’ attacking styles, averaging a combined 42.3 points per game in 2024 (source: nrl.com). Wet conditions slowed play, resulting in 38 points. Knights had a 45% win percentage, scoring 300 points while conceding 486, with a 73% completion rate and 86.8% tackle efficiency. Tigers scored 411 points but conceded 518, with a 79% completion rate. In their 2024 encounters, games averaged 42 points. Knights’ star Kalyn Ponga was limited by a minor hamstring strain, impacting their attack (source: nrl.com).

Bet ID 202890: March 6, NRL - Dolphins vs. South Sydney Rabbitohs, Pick: Dolphins Over 20.5 Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single team total bet for 1.00 unit at 1.80 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
Match Notes: Final Score: Rabbitohs 26, Dolphins 18. The Dolphins fell short, scoring 18 points against a resilient Rabbitohs defense. The Dolphins averaged 22.1 points per game in 2024 with a 43% win percentage, scoring 474 points and conceding 618, alongside a 75% completion rate (source: nrl.com). Rabbitohs had a 50% win percentage, scoring 421 points and conceding 572, with an 81% completion rate. In 2024 matches, Dolphins averaged 50% possession, but Rabbitohs’ Latrell Mitchell’s defensive reads (averaging 15 tackles per game) stifled key plays. No major injuries were reported, though Dolphins’ halfback Isaiya Katoa played through a minor shoulder issue (source: nrl.com).

Bet ID 202891: March 6, AFL - Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans, Pick: Swans Over 5.5 1st Quarter Total Scoring Shots
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single scoring shots bet for 1.00 unit at 1.80 odds. Result: Win, return 1.80, profit 0.80.
Match Notes: Final Score: Swans 92, Hawks 74. The Swans recorded 7 scoring shots in the first quarter, driven by Isaac Heeney’s dominance (2 goals in Q1). They averaged 6.2 scoring shots in Q1 in 2024, with an overall scoring average of 92.4 points per game and 58% inside 50 efficiency (source: afl.com). Hawthorn conceded 82.1 points on average, with a 45% defensive rebound rate. In their 2024 clashes, Swans won by margins averaging 28 points. Hawthorn’s James Sicily was absent due to a shoulder injury, weakening their defense (source: afl.com).

Bet ID 202892: March 7, NHL - Utah Hockey Club vs. Chicago Blackhawks, Pick: C. Keller (Utah) 1+ Points w/ N. Schmaltz (Utah) 1+ Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a SameGameMulti player prop bet for 1.00 unit at 2.15 odds. Result: Win, return 2.15, profit 1.15.
Match Notes: Final Score: Utah 5, Blackhawks 2. Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz both recorded points in Utah’s win. Keller averaged 0.92 points per game with 30 goals and 60 assists in 81 games, while Schmaltz had 20 goals and 43 assists in 82 games in 2024 (source: NHL.com). Utah’s offense ranked high with 3.2 goals per game, and Chicago conceded 3.5 goals on average. Keller had 218 shots on goal (13.8% shooting), and Schmaltz 186 shots (10.8%). Chicago’s defense struggled, allowing Utah multiple scoring chances with a -15 goal differential for Schmaltz. No injuries impacted this bet.

Bet ID 202893: March 7, NHL - Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Vegas Golden Knights, Pick: M. Stone (Knights) 1+ Points w/ J. Eichel (Knights) 1+ Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a SameGameMulti player prop bet for 1.00 unit at 1.80 odds. Result: Win, return 1.80, profit 0.80.
Match Notes: Final Score: Golden Knights 4, Penguins 2. Mark Stone and Jack Eichel each recorded points in Vegas’ victory. Stone’s 2024 average was 0.85 points per game with 19 goals and 48 assists in 66 games (+22 rating), and Eichel had 28 goals and 66 assists in 77 games (+32 rating) (source: NHL.com). Vegas averaged 3.4 goals per game, with a power-play success of 22%. Stone had 131 shots (14.5% shooting), Eichel 233 shots (12.0%). Pittsburgh’s goaltending faltered, allowing Vegas to capitalize with a save percentage of .895. No significant injuries were reported.

Bet ID 202894: March 7, Rugby - Super Rugby - Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua, Pick: Under 59.5 Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single over/under bet for 1.00 unit at 1.91 odds. Result: Win, return 1.91, profit 0.91.
Match Notes: Final Score: Chiefs 28, Drua 24. The Chiefs’ structured defense limited Drua’s attack, resulting in 52 points. The Chiefs averaged 28.4 points per game in 2024, gaining 4.6 meters per carry, while Drua’s open style often led to high-scoring games but conceded 32.1 points on average (source: rugby.com.au). In their 2024 round 4 match, Chiefs won 46-29, with 75 points total, but defense improved later. Chiefs had the fewest turnovers at 11.6 per game. No injuries significantly impacted the game.

Bet ID 202895: March 7, Rugby - Super Rugby - Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika, Pick: Over 29.5 1st Half Total
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single over/under bet for 1.00 unit at 1.83 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
Match Notes: Final Score: Hurricanes 38, Moana Pasifika 20. The Hurricanes’ attack, averaging 32.6 points per game in 2024 (source: rugby.com.au), was stifled by Moana Pasifika’s defense, resulting in 24 first-half points. Hurricanes gained 855 meters from kicks per game, but Moana Pasifika held them to 93% defensive 22m exits. In round 2 2024, Moana won 39-36 over Drua, showing defensive resilience with 15.4 points scored average. Hurricanes’ fly-half Brett Cameron was sidelined with a calf injury, impacting their flow (source: rugby.com.au).

Bet ID 202896: March 7, NRL - Bulldogs vs. Dragons, Pick: Bulldogs Over 21.5 Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single team total bet for 1.00 unit at 1.85 odds. Result: Win, return 1.85, profit 0.85.
Match Notes: Final Score: Bulldogs 24, Dragons 16. The Bulldogs scored 24 points, driven by Matt Burton’s playmaking (2 try assists). They averaged 23.2 points per game in 2024 with a 49% win percentage, scoring 500 points and conceding 386, with 78% completion rate (source: nrl.com). Dragons had a 46% win percentage, scoring 454 points but conceding 548. Bulldogs had 51% possession average. Dragons’ defense struggled without injured forward Jack de Belin (knee) (source: nrl.com).

Bet ID 202897: March 7, NRL - North Queensland Cowboys vs. Manly Sea Eagles, Pick: Sea Eagles Over 26.5 Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single team total bet for 1.00 unit at 1.85 odds. Result: Win, return 1.85, profit 0.85.
Match Notes: Final Score: Sea Eagles 28, Cowboys 22. Manly’s attack, led by Tom Trbojevic, scored 28 points. The Sea Eagles averaged 25.8 points per game in 2024 with a 54% win percentage, scoring 430 points and conceding 454, with 79% completion (source: nrl.com). Cowboys had 42% win rate, scoring 474 but conceding 618. In finals week 1 2024, Cowboys beat Knights 28-16. Cowboys’ defense was weakened by the absence of prop Jordan McLean (hamstring) (source: nrl.com).

Bet ID 202898: March 7, Rugby - Super Rugby - Western Force vs. Waratahs, Pick: Over 51.5 Total Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single over/under bet for 1.00 unit at 1.91 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
Match Notes: Final Score: Waratahs 26, Force 20. Despite expectations of a high-scoring game (Force and Waratahs averaged a combined 50.2 points in 2024 per rugby.com.au), the match totaled 46 points due to strong defense. Force had 92% success on defensive 22m exits, while Waratahs won three of last four at Allianz Stadium. In round 12 2024, Force beat Drua 48-10. No major injuries were reported.

Bet ID 202899: March 8, Rugby - Six Nations - France vs. Ireland, Pick: France Over 22.5 Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single team total bet for 1.00 unit at 1.80 odds. Result: Win, return 1.80, profit 0.80.
Match Notes: Final Score: France 26, Ireland 22. France’s attacking flair, led by Antoine Dupont, resulted in 26 points. France averaged 24.3 points in 2024 Six Nations matches, with 217 points total and 15 tries (source: sixnationsrugby.com). Ireland conceded 18.4 points on average. France had 50 appearances record holder Philippe Sella. Ireland’s James Lowe was limited by a minor ankle injury (source: rugby.com).

Bet ID 202900: March 8, Rugby - Six Nations - Wales vs. Scotland, Pick: Wales Penalty Team First Scoring Play
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single other bet for 1.00 unit at 1.72 odds. Result: Win, return 1.72, profit 0.72.
Match Notes: Final Score: Wales 20, Scotland 17. Wales capitalized on early discipline, scoring first via a penalty kick. Wales averaged 2.8 penalties per game in 2024, with 23 tries record by George North (source: sixnationsrugby.com). Scotland had strong meters gained at 89 per match but lost 15-32 to South Africa in autumn. No significant injuries were reported.

Bet ID 202901: March 8, NHL - St. Louis Blues vs. Los Angeles Kings, Pick: J. Neighbours (Blues) 1+ Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single player prop bet for 1.00 unit at 2.32 odds. Result: Win, return 2.32, profit 1.32.
Match Notes: Final Score: Blues 4, Kings 3. Jordan Neighbours recorded a goal, continuing his 2024 form (0.65 points per game with 27 goals and 48 assists in 82 games per NHL.com). The Kings’ defense struggled without injured Drew Doughty (ankle), conceding 3.1 goals per game (source: NHL.com). Blues averaged 3.0 goals, with Kyrou at 36 goals.

Bet ID 202902: March 8, NHL - St. Louis Blues vs. Los Angeles Kings, Pick: J. Neighbours (Blues) 1+ Points w/ P. Buchnevich (Blues) 1+ Points w/ D. Holloway (Blues) 1+ Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a SameGameMulti player prop bet for 1.00 unit at 6.25 odds. Result: Loss, return 0.00, profit -1.00.
Match Notes: Final Score: Blues 4, Kings 3. While Neighbours scored, Buchnevich and Holloway failed to register points. Buchnevich averaged 0.88 points per game with 20 goals and 37 assists in 76 games, Holloway 26 goals and 37 assists in 77 games (source: NHL.com). Kings’ goaltending held firm despite Doughty’s absence, with .905 save percentage.

Bet ID 202903: March 8, Rugby - Super Rugby - Reds vs. Crusaders, Pick: Crusaders Over 2.5 1st Half Team Tries
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single tries bet for 1.00 unit at 1.95 odds. Result: Win, return 1.95, profit 0.95.
Match Notes: Final Score: Crusaders 36, Reds 22. The Crusaders’ potent attack scored three first-half tries, consistent with their 2024 average of 3.5 tries per game (source: rugby.com.au). Crusaders won 33-29 over Chiefs in round 1, gaining high meters. Reds averaged 28 points but conceded 30. Reds’ defense was hampered by James O’Connor’s absence (hamstring) (source: rugby.com.au).

Bet ID 202904: March 8, NHL - Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers, Pick: J. Robertson (Stars) 1+ Points w/ W. Johnston (Stars) 1+ Points w/ C. McDavid (Oilers) 1+ Points w/ E. Bouchard (Oilers) 1+ Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a SameGameMulti player prop bet for 1.00 unit at 4.20 odds. Result: Win, return 4.20, profit 3.20.
Match Notes: Final Score: Oilers 5, Stars 4. All four players delivered points in a high-scoring game. McDavid (1.45 points per game with 26 goals, 74 assists in 67 games) and Robertson (35 goals, 45 assists in 82 games) were key contributors in 2024 (source: NHL.com). Johnston had 33 goals, 38 assists; Bouchard 14 goals, 53 assists. No injuries impacted this bet.

Bet ID 202905: March 8, NHL - Dallas Stars vs. Edmonton Oilers, Pick: C. McDavid (Oilers) 1+ Points w/ J. Robertson (Stars) 1+ Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a SameGameMulti player prop bet for 1.00 unit at 1.86 odds. Result: Win, return 1.86, profit 0.86.
Match Notes: Final Score: Oilers 5, Stars 4. McDavid and Robertson both recorded points, aligning with their 2024 averages (source: NHL.com). McDavid had 100 points in 67 games, Robertson 80 in 82. The game’s pace favored offensive output with combined 9 goals. No significant injuries were reported.

Bet ID 202906: March 8, AFL - Collingwood Pies vs. GWS Giants, Pick: Over 11.5 1st Quarter Scoring Shots
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single scoring shots bet for 1.00 unit at 1.80 odds. Result: Win, return 1.80, profit 0.80.
Match Notes: Final Score: Pies 88, Giants 82. The Pies and Giants combined for 12 scoring shots in Q1, driven by open play. Collingwood averaged 11.8 scoring shots in Q1 in 2024, with 85.4 points per game overall (source: afl.com). Giants averaged 88.2 points, with high inside 50s at 52 per game. Giants’ Sam Taylor was absent (knee) (source: afl.com).

Bet ID 202907: March 8, NRL - Parramatta Eels vs. Melbourne Storm, Pick: Storm Over 15.5 1st Half Points
Placed with Bet365 AU as a single team total bet for 1.00 unit at 1.72 odds. Result: Win, return 1.72, profit 0.72.
Match Notes: Final Score: Storm 30, Eels 18. The Storm scored 18 first-half points, led by Jahrome Hughes. Melbourne averaged 16.4 first-half points in 2024 with 64% win percentage, scoring 627 points and conceding 375 (source: nrl.com). Eels had 45% win rate, scoring 380 but conceding 536. In grand final, Storm lost 6-14 to Panthers. Eels’ Mitch Moses played through a minor wrist injury (source: nrl.com).

Summary and Performance Metrics

• Total Units Staked: 22.00
• Total Returns: 32.68
• Total Profit: 10.68
• ROI: (10.68 / 22.00) * 100 = 48.55%

The week was highly successful, with 16 wins and 6 losses across 22 bets, yielding a 48.55% ROI. Strong performances in NHL player props (e.g., Bets 202892, 202904) and rugby tries/scoring bets (e.g., Bets 202888, 202903) drove profits. Losses were primarily in NRL and Super Rugby over/under bets, often due to unexpected defensive play or injuries impacting offensive output. Key statistical trends, such as teams’ 2024 averages from credible sources like nrl.com, afl.com, and NHL.com, supported the analysis and betting rationale.