Match by Match
Orioles
@
Rays
Sat 15 Aug 09:11 AEST
7 plays
DONE
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✏️ Game Analysis
The projected scoring environment looks elevated with a total around 9.1 runs as the Orioles visit the Rays.
Baltimore has looked uneven lately while Tampa Bay has carried clear momentum and keeps finding ways to win.
The Rays moneyline offers a measured play at the current price, though it already bakes in the home edge without much extra room. The full game over 8.5 stands as the standout lean here because the projection sits above the number, and the same direction appears in the first three innings over 2.5.
On the player props, Gunnar Henderson draws interest to clear the over on home runs, yet Junior Caminero and Pete Alonso both attract the largest attention in that market. Cedric Mullins provides the contrasting look on the under side.
Overall the script favors the Rays setting the tone and pushing the run total higher across the night.
| Play / Side | Market | Bookmaker | Line | Odds | True% | Edge% | EV | Tier | Units | Projection | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Over 0.5 Home Runs — Junior Caminero
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
Player Props | PointsBet (AU) | 0.5 | 4.75 | 52.0% | 12.0% | 6 | T3 | 5u | — | — |
|
Over 0.5 Home Runs — Pete Alonso
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
Player Props | PointsBet (AU) | 0.5 | 4.00 | 52.0% | 12.0% | 6 | T3 | 5u | — | — |
|
Over 8.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
Full Game O/U | SportsBet | 8.5 | 1.99 | 53.0% | 5.1% | 2.6 | T2 | 2.5u | 9.1 runs | Slight lean Over — baseline sits just above the number |
|
OVER 2.5 First 3 Innings Total
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
1st 3 Innings O/U | PointsBet (AU) | 2.5 | 2.05 | 51.9% | 6.0% | 3 | T2 | 2.5u | 3.0 runs F3 | Lean Over — projection sits above the line |
|
Over 0.5 Home Runs — Gunnar Henderson
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
Player Props | PointsBet (AU) | 0.5 | 5.50 | 48.0% | 10.0% | 5 | T2 | 2.5u | — | — |
|
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
Moneyline (H2H) | Unibet | 0 | 1.68 | 55.0% | -4.0% | -2 | T1 | 1u | 9.1 runs | Baseline home edge but price fairly efficient |
|
Under 0.5 Home Runs — Cedric Mullins
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
Player Props | PointsBet (AU) | 0.5 | 7.00 | 26.3% | 12.0% | 6 | T1 | 1u | — | — |
| Play / Side | Bookmaker | Line | Odds | True% | Edge% | EV | Tier | Units | Projection | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
Unibet | 0 | 1.68 | 55.0% | -4.0% | -2 | T1 | 1u | 9.1 runs | Baseline home edge but price fairly efficient |
| Play / Side | Bookmaker | Line | Odds | True% | Edge% | EV | Tier | Units | Projection | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No qualifying plays | ||||||||||
| Play / Side | Bookmaker | Line | Odds | True% | Edge% | EV | Tier | Units | Projection | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Over 8.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
SportsBet | 8.5 | 1.99 | 53.0% | 5.1% | 2.6 | T2 | 2.5u | 9.1 runs | Slight lean Over — baseline sits just above the number |
| Play / Side | Bookmaker | Line | Odds | True% | Edge% | EV | Tier | Units | Projection | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No qualifying plays | ||||||||||
| Play / Side | Bookmaker | Line | Odds | True% | Edge% | EV | Tier | Units | Projection | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
OVER 2.5 First 3 Innings Total
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
PointsBet (AU) | 2.5 | 2.05 | 51.9% | 6.0% | 3 | T2 | 2.5u | 3.0 runs F3 | Lean Over — projection sits above the line |
| Play / Side | Bookmaker | Line | Odds | True% | Edge% | EV | Tier | Units | Projection | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No qualifying plays | ||||||||||
| Player / Prop | Bookmaker | Line | Odds | True% | Edge% | EV | Tier | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Over 0.5 Home Runs — Gunnar Henderson
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
PointsBet (AU) | 0.5 | 5.50 | 48.0% | 10.0% | 5 | T2 | 2.5u |
|
Over 0.5 Home Runs — Junior Caminero
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
PointsBet (AU) | 0.5 | 4.75 | 52.0% | 12.0% | 6 | T3 | 5u |
|
Over 0.5 Home Runs — Pete Alonso
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
PointsBet (AU) | 0.5 | 4.00 | 52.0% | 12.0% | 6 | T3 | 5u |
|
Under 0.5 Home Runs — Cedric Mullins
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays |
PointsBet (AU) | 0.5 | 7.00 | 26.3% | 12.0% | 6 | T1 | 1u |
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