MLB Player Prop Analyzer — Youngblood's MLB Engine

01

Executive Summary

The single most important read on player form and props right now

8 bat(s) running hot; engine props running -0.9% ROI — calibration watch on 4260 settled plays.

Across 2451 completed game(s) the report tracks 740 hitters and 860 pitchers off real box scores, plus 4306 graded engine prop play(s). Form, streaks and prop profiles below reflect only games in this window.

Key Takeaways

Hottest bat in the window: R. Devers — 15 H, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 43 TB over last 10 games
Top strikeout form: J. Misiorowski — 249 K over 172.3 IP (13 K/9), last 2 apps at 10.6 K/9
Engine props in the window: 1663-2502-95 (-0.9% ROI) across 4260 settled plays.
League hitting 2.26 HR per game across 2451 game(s) in the window.

★

Hottest Bat Right Now

Top of the league heat board over the recent window

League Heat Leader · 100/100

R. Devers

Team San Francisco Giants Recent 15 H, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 43 TB over last 10 games Hit streak 5 games Multi-hit games 5

02

Hot & Cold Bats

Hitter form over the last 10 appearances — hit/TB prop boosts and fades

Hot Hitters

1

R. Devers

15 H, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 43 TB over last 10 games

4.3 TB/G
8 HR

H5 streak100

2

B. Rice

14 H, 6 HR, 11 RBI, 34 TB over last 10 games

3.4 TB/G
6 HR

H2 streak100

3

P. Alonso

10 H, 8 HR, 13 RBI, 34 TB over last 10 games

3.4 TB/G
8 HR

H2 streak100

4

N. Arenado

17 H, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 34 TB over last 10 games

3.4 TB/G
5 HR

H13 streak100

5

V. Pasquantino

13 H, 5 HR, 14 RBI, 30 TB over last 10 games

3 TB/G
5 HR

H3 streak100

6

C. Meidroth

16 H, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 28 TB over last 10 games

2.8 TB/G
3 HR

H2 streak100

7

C. Benge

18 H, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 27 TB over last 10 games

2.7 TB/G
2 HR

H4 streak100

8

B. Lowe

11 H, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 27 TB over last 10 games

2.7 TB/G
5 HR

3× multi-hit100

Cold Hitters (regulars in a slump)

1

M. Yastrzemski

2 H, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 TB over last 10 games

0.2 TB/G
4 G hitless

Cold12

2

I. Collins

2 H, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 TB over last 10 games

0.2 TB/G
—

Cold12

3

E. Clement

3 H, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 5 TB over last 10 games

0.5 TB/G
4 G hitless

Cold19

4

T. Ward

3 H, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 3 TB over last 10 games

0.3 TB/G
—

Cold19

5

N. Nunez

3 H, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 4 TB over last 10 games

0.4 TB/G
—

Cold21

6

E. Duran

4 H, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 5 TB over last 10 games

0.5 TB/G
1 G hitless

Cold23

03

Pitcher Strikeout Form

K/9 across the window vs the last two appearances — the strikeout-prop input

Pitcher	Team	Apps	IP	K	K/9	Recent K/9	Trend	Last K's
J. Misiorowski	Milwaukee Brewers	30	172.3	249	13	10.61	▼ Fading	4 · 5 · 6
D. Cease	Toronto Blue Jays	29	169	239	12.73	14.09	▲ Rising	6 · 9 · 3
G. Williams	Cleveland Guardians	32	183.3	248	12.17	16.2	▲ Rising	9 · 4 · 11
T. Glasnow	Los Angeles Dodgers	14	78.7	103	11.78	13.09	▲ Rising	10 · 11 · 5
B. Snell	Los Angeles Dodgers	10	46.3	60	11.65	9.39	▼ Fading	1 · 3 · 5
C. Ragans	Kansas City Royals	8	35.3	45	11.46	12.96	▲ Rising	11 · 8 · 4
T. Imai	Houston Astros	23	76.7	97	11.39	15	▲ Rising	1 · 4 · 1
C. Sale	Atlanta Braves	29	174	216	11.17	12.71	▲ Rising	10 · 9 · 7
J. deGrom	Texas Rangers	31	162.7	201	11.12	7.56	▼ Fading	8 · 2 · 5
G. Crochet	Boston Red Sox	6	30	37	11.1	12.27	▲ Rising	0 · 8 · 7
J. Luzardo	Philadelphia Phillies	31	184.7	227	11.06	9	▼ Fading	12 · 0 · 6
K. Harrison	Milwaukee Brewers	26	112	137	11.01	15	▲ Rising	0 · 1 · 4

▲ K-Rate Rising — Over-friendly

D. Cease (Toronto Blue Jays) — 239 K over 169 IP (12.7 K/9), last 2 apps at 14.1 K/9
G. Williams (Cleveland Guardians) — 248 K over 183.3 IP (12.2 K/9), last 2 apps at 16.2 K/9
T. Glasnow (Los Angeles Dodgers) — 103 K over 78.7 IP (11.8 K/9), last 2 apps at 13.1 K/9
C. Ragans (Kansas City Royals) — 45 K over 35.3 IP (11.5 K/9), last 2 apps at 13 K/9

▼ K-Rate Fading — treat Overs with caution

J. Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers) — 249 K over 172.3 IP (13 K/9), last 2 apps at 10.6 K/9
B. Snell (Los Angeles Dodgers) — 60 K over 46.3 IP (11.7 K/9), last 2 apps at 9.4 K/9
J. deGrom (Texas Rangers) — 201 K over 162.7 IP (11.1 K/9), last 2 apps at 7.6 K/9
J. Luzardo (Philadelphia Phillies) — 227 K over 184.7 IP (11.1 K/9), last 2 apps at 9 K/9

K/9 from real box-score strikeouts and innings pitched; starters with 8+ IP in the window. "Recent" compares the last 2 appearances against the full window.

04

Home Run Watch

Recent HR output and rhythm — the HR-prop filter

Player	Team	Games	HR	HR / Game	Since Last HR	Status
W. Contreras	Milwaukee Brewers	282	48	0.17	1 games	In rhythm
B. Rice	New York Yankees	157	45	0.29	1 games	In rhythm
K. Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	156	45	0.29	Last game	Homered last game
P. Crow-Armstrong	Chicago Cubs	162	44	0.27	8 games	Cooling
P. Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	159	42	0.26	1 games	In rhythm
Y. Alvarez	Houston Astros	158	41	0.26	3 games	Cooling
J. Caminero	Tampa Bay Rays	163	41	0.25	4 games	Cooling
M. Olson	Atlanta Braves	166	41	0.25	10 games	Cooling

HR counts from real box scores over the selected window. HR props are only worth taking when the bat is in rhythm — see status column.

05

Prop-Specific Trends

How the engine's graded prop plays settled by prop type — calibration data

Prop Type	Record	Strike Rate	ROI	Profit (u)	Over Share	Over Strike Rate	Avg Edge
Strikeouts (Pitcher)	915-1005-6	47.7%	-0.3%	-18.28	51%	45.7%	7%
Home Runs	444-1268-66	25.9%	-0.3%	-15.34	89%	19.7%	11.4%
Total Bases	62-63-5	49.6%	+1.9%	+6.89	97%	48.8%	7.8%
RBIs	10-4-1	71.4%	+12.7%	+3.63	40%	20%	7.3%
Hits	232-162-17	58.9%	-14.5%	-87.1	99%	59.1%	7.7%

Props · 7d

Record9-11

Strike Rate45%

ROI-17%

Props · 14d

Record42-68-6

Strike Rate38.2%

ROI-10.4%

Props · 30d

Record191-313-20

Strike Rate37.9%

ROI-11%

Props · Season

Record1663-2502-95

Strike Rate39.9%

ROI-0.9%

Across the Daily window the engine's player props are 1663-2502-95 (-0.9% ROI). RBIs props are the strongest type (+12.7% ROI); Hits the weakest (-14.5% ROI).

Settlement of the engine's graded player-prop plays (from pnl_props) — calibration data, not neutral market over/under rates.

06

Player Betting Profile

How the engine's props have performed per player — targeted discounts, not blanket ones

Proven Targets (positive ROI, 3+ settled)

Player	Main Prop	Record	ROI	Avg Edge
Jonathan Aranda	Home Runs	2-2	+200%	13.6%
Brandon Sproat	Strikeouts (Pitcher)	3-0	+113.1%	6.6%
Daulton Varsho	Home Runs	1-3-1	+108.3%	16.7%
Christian Scott	Strikeouts (Pitcher)	7-1	+105.9%	4.9%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	Home Runs	2-2	+95.9%	9.1%
George Springer	Home Runs	3-2	+89.3%	11.1%

Optimism Gaps (negative ROI, 3+ settled)

Player	Main Prop	Record	ROI	Avg Edge
Blade Tidwell	Strikeouts (Pitcher)	0-4	-100%	7.2%
Esmerlyn Valdez	Home Runs	0-3	-100%	11%
Cal Quantrill	Strikeouts (Pitcher)	0-5	-100%	4%
Jake Bauers	Home Runs	0-4	-100%	12%
Royce Lewis	Home Runs	0-7	-100%	13%
Wyatt Langford	Home Runs	0-5	-100%	10.7%

↻

Feedback loop: 294 player(s) have 3+ settled engine props in the window. Positive-ROI names are proven targets; negative-ROI names carry a per-player optimism gap the Analytical Layer should discount.

07

Recommendations

Direct player-level inputs for the Analytical Layer

● Leans

Lean Over strikeouts — D. Cease (Toronto Blue Jays): 14.09 K/9 over last 2 apps vs 12.73 window (engine 6-6 on his K props).
Lean Over strikeouts — G. Williams (Cleveland Guardians): 16.2 K/9 over last 2 apps vs 12.17 window (engine 2-5 on his K props).
HR props only where the bat is live: W. Contreras (Milwaukee Brewers) — 48 HR in 282 games, In rhythm.

● Avoid / Fade

Avoid Blade Tidwell props — engine is 0-4 (-100% ROI) on him in the window.
Avoid Esmerlyn Valdez props — engine is 0-3 (-100% ROI) on him in the window.
Fade M. Yastrzemski (Atlanta Braves) hit/TB overs — hitless in 4 straight games.

● Watch List

R. Devers (San Francisco Giants) — heat 100/100, 15 H, 8 HR, 22 RBI, 43 TB over last 10 games.
B. Rice (New York Yankees) — heat 100/100, 14 H, 6 HR, 11 RBI, 34 TB over last 10 games.
P. Alonso (Baltimore Orioles) — heat 100/100, 10 H, 8 HR, 13 RBI, 34 TB over last 10 games.

Leans are derived from real box-score form plus the engine's own graded prop history — directional inputs for the Analytical Layer, not staked plays.