🏈 NCAAF Intelligence

League Intelligence

FBS · Week 6 · 2026 · 359 completed games · 354 with a stored line

Season

Week

Division

Window

League Week 6 Team Reports Season Player Props Scores Odds Bombcard Standings

Market Trends

From stored lines · 354 games

Settled from real final scores against the median posted line across books. Pushes are excluded from percentages. The tick on each bar is the 50% coin flip.

Favourites ATS

55.2%

192-156 · 348 games

Over rate

52.7%

186-167-1 · 353 games

Favourites SU

85.3%

301-52 straight up

Home ATS

53.6%

187-162 · SU 255-99

Cover Rate by Spread Size

From stored lines

College spreads run from pick'em to −45, and the market is not equally accurate across that range. This is the section baseball cannot have — MLB has only a fixed ±1.5 run line.

Spread range	Games	Fav ATS	Cover %	Fav SU	O/U	Over %	Avg total
0-3 pts	49	25-21	54.3%	30-18	25-24	51.0%	53.4
3.5-7 pts	62	31-31	50.0%	43-19	28-33-1	45.9%	50.5
7.5-14 pts	70	38-29	56.7%	59-11	28-42	40.0%	49.3
14.5-21 pts	51	27-24	52.9%	48-3	33-18	64.7%	55.5
21.5+ pts	122	71-51	58.2%	121-1	72-50	59.0%	57.2

Scoring Environment

From final scores · 359 games

Every completed game in the window, whether or not a line was ever stored for it.

Avg total

53.8

median 53

Avg margin

102 inside one score

Blowouts

177 / 359

21+ point margins

Home teams SU

71.9%

258-101 · +15.2 avg

Posted total (avg)

52.9

across 354 priced games

Result vs posted total

+0.8

points above/below the line

First half Over

49.0%

146-152 · 298 settled · US books

First quarter Over

47.3%

141-157-1 · 298 settled · US books

Week by Week

Scores Market where priced

Scoring, margins and home-field are from every final. The ATS and Over/Under columns cover the weeks a line was stored for.

Week	Games	Avg total	Avg margin	Home SU	Home win %	Priced	Fav ATS	Cover %	Over %
Week 0	8	47.9	14.6	6-2	75.0%	8	4-4	50.0%	25.0%
Week 1	91	54.4	32	81-10	89.0%	91	55-34	61.8%	56.0%
Week 2	86	55.2	26.1	68-18	79.1%	85	48-37	56.5%	50.6%
Week 3	57	55.1	17	40-17	70.2%	57	27-29	48.2%	57.1%
Week 4	58	50.9	16.8	31-27	53.4%	58	33-24	57.9%	46.6%
Week 5	56	52.8	17.7	30-26	53.6%	55	25-28	47.2%	56.4%
Week 6	3	55.7	13.7	2-1	66.7%	0	—	—	—

By Conference

From final scores

Every game a conference's teams played, counted from that team's side — so a row reads as “how the ACC's games went”, not “games between two ACC teams”. Conferences with fewer than two games are omitted.

Conference	Team games	SU	Win %	Pts/game	Margin	Game total	ATS	Over %
SEC	76	55-21	72.4%	35.5	+13.7	57.4	38-38	55.3%
Independent	10	7-3	70.0%	38.6	+19.6	57.6	7-3	60.0%
Big 12	73	51-22	69.9%	33.9	+14.5	53.2	39-32	52.8%
Big Ten	82	53-29	64.6%	31.9	+10.5	53.3	40-39	58.0%
ACC	75	45-30	60.0%	31.3	+7.9	54.7	36-34	54.2%
Sun Belt	66	33-33	50.0%	29.2	+2.5	55.9	36-28	54.7%
Mountain West	47	23-24	48.9%	24.3	+0.8	47.9	22-25	36.2%
American	59	28-31	47.5%	25.3	-1.5	52.1	29-29	44.1%
MAC	62	26-36	41.9%	21.9	-7.0	50.8	26-35	58.1%
Pac-12	36	15-21	41.7%	26.2	-1.5	53.9	19-16	58.3%
Conference USA	47	18-29	38.3%	22.4	-3.9	48.7	27-16	34.9%

Teams In & Out of Form

Ranked on ATS cover rate

Ranked on ATS cover rate over the last three games — a team winning but not covering is a priced-in story, not a betting one.

In form

last 3 games

Team	L3 SU	Margin	PF–PA	L3 ATS	Season ATS
1Nebraska	3-0	+30.7	45–14.3	3-0	4-0
2UCLA	3-0	+27.7	44.7–17	2-0	3-0-1
3Utah	3-0	+26.7	35.7–9	3-0	4-0
4Wisconsin	3-0	+25.3	36.3–11	3-0	3-2
5New Mexico	2-1	+23.3	36.3–13	3-0	5-0
6Liberty	3-0	+23.0	38.3–15.3	3-0	3-2
7James Madison	3-0	+22.3	39–16.7	3-0	5-0
8Fresno State	3-0	+16.7	30–13.3	2-0	3-1-1
9Northwestern	2-1	+16.3	32.7–16.3	3-0	4-0
10Duke	3-0	+15.3	27.7–12.3	3-0	3-0

Out of form

last 3 games

Team	L3 SU	Margin	PF–PA	L3 ATS	Season ATS
1UTEP	0-3	-38.3	10.3–48.7	0-3	1-4
2Akron	0-3	-28.7	11.3–40	0-3	2-3
3Maryland	0-3	-28.3	17.3–45.7	0-3	2-3
4Colorado	0-3	-22.0	9–31	0-3	1-4
5Colorado State	0-3	-20.7	31.3–52	0-3	2-3
6Old Dominion	0-3	-20.3	15.7–36	0-3	0-5
7South Carolina	0-3	-13.0	28.7–41.7	0-3	1-4
8Coastal Carolina	0-3	-10.7	18.3–29	0-3	2-3
9Georgia Tech	0-3	-9.7	21.3–31	0-3	0-3
10Oklahoma	1-2	-9.0	12.3–21.3	0-3	1-3

Highest and Lowest Scoring Games

From final scores

The ends of the scoring distribution behind the averages above.

Highest scoring

top 5

Wk 4 Colorado State @ UTSA posted 58.3 45-59 104

Wk 3 Temple @ Toledo posted 50.8 48-49 97

Wk 2 Western Kentucky @ Georgia posted 55.3 20-70 90

Wk 2 Wagner @ James Madison posted 55.8 3-87 90

Wk 3 Purdue @ UCLA posted 52.8 38-52 90

Lowest scoring

top 5

Wk 2 UCF @ Pittsburgh posted 57.3 7-12 19

Wk 1 Tulane @ Duke posted 51.0 3-17 20

Wk 3 New Mexico @ Oklahoma posted 46.5 6-14 20

Wk 4 South Florida @ Bowling Green posted 49.3 14-6 20

Wk 2 Colgate @ Central Michigan posted 50.3 10-13 23

Where the Result Diverged from the Price

From stored lines

Double-digit underdogs that won outright, and totals that missed the posted line by three scores.

Wk 5 Total Baylor @ Arizona StateTotal 74 vs a posted 48.8 — over by 25.3 55-19

Wk 5 Total West Virginia @ Iowa StateTotal 87 vs a posted 52.8 — over by 34.3 42-45

Wk 5 Total Syracuse @ UConnTotal 83 vs a posted 50.8 — over by 32.3 42-41

Wk 5 Upset Purdue @ IllinoisPurdue won outright as a 10.0-point underdog 24-17

Wk 5 Total UTSA @ RiceTotal 30 vs a posted 55.8 — under by 25.8 16-14

Wk 5 Total Navy @ Air ForceTotal 23 vs a posted 45.5 — under by 22.5 9-14

Wk 5 Total Ohio @ Kent StateTotal 23 vs a posted 50.8 — under by 27.8 13-10

Wk 5 Upset Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)Bowling Green won outright as a 13.5-point underdog 24-20

Wk 5 Total UL Monroe @ South AlabamaTotal 87 vs a posted 57.5 — over by 29.5 35-52

Wk 5 Total North Texas @ TulsaTotal 89 vs a posted 57.3 — over by 31.8 45-44

Wk 4 Total Ole Miss @ FloridaTotal 80 vs a posted 58.8 — over by 21.3 28-52

Wk 4 Upset Wake Forest @ LouisvilleWake Forest won outright as a 13.0-point underdog 30-27

Wk 4 Upset Wisconsin @ Penn StateWisconsin won outright as a 10.0-point underdog 24-20

Wk 4 Upset Minnesota @ WashingtonMinnesota won outright as a 10.0-point underdog 27-24

Wk 4 Total Colorado State @ UTSATotal 104 vs a posted 58.3 — over by 45.8 45-59

What the Numbers Support

ATS Favourites — Favourites are covering at 55.2% over 348 settled games.

SPREAD BUCKET Favourites — In the 21.5+ point range, favourites are covering 58.2% (122 games).

SCORING Context — Games are averaging 53.8 points across 359 results, median 53.

MARGINS Blowouts — 28% of games finished inside one score and 49% by 21 or more, averaging a 23-point margin.

Coverage. 359 final(s) stored between 2026-08-01 and 2026-10-10; 359 usable for scoring and form, 354 also carrying a line (98.6%). 354 had a stored spread, 354 a stored total. Scoring, form and result sections are computed from every stored final. ATS and Over/Under rates additionally require a stored line, so they cover the settled subset only — the gap is games missing odds, not missing results.

Neutral league-wide rates settled from final scores against the median posted line across books. Pushes are excluded from percentages. This is how the MARKET performed, not how any model performed.