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NFL 2026 Season Betting Analysis – ATS, Totals & Market Splits
Progressive ATS, totals, favourite/underdog, home/away and 1H form across the season. · Generated 2026-10-09 00:48:29
Games Settled
64
Home Win %
56.3%
Favourite ATS
43.6%
27-35
Over %
49.2%
31O · 32U
Avg Total
46.2
Biggest cover: Panthers 28.5
1H Fav ATS
50.0%
32-32
ATS% by Team
Over% by Team
Team Rankings
Search + click headers to sort
| # | Team (ATS L10 >) Wk 4 | Rec | ATS% | O/U% | Fav | Dog | Home ATS | Away ATS | 1H ATS | Big Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
W
W
W
W
|
3-1 | 4-0 · 100.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 1 | 3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 18.5 vs Chargers (W2) |
| 2 |
W
W
L
W
|
4-0 | 3-1 · 75.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 3 | 1 | 67% | 100% | 75% | 23.5 vs Rams (W1) |
| 3 |
L
W
W
W
|
2-2 | 3-1 · 75.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 1 | 3 | 50% | 100% | 75% | 13.5 vs Commanders (W4) |
| 4 |
W
L
W
W
|
3-1 | 3-1 · 75.0% | 1-3 · 25% | 3 | 1 | 67% | 100% | 75% | 24.5 vs Eagles (W3) |
| 5 |
W
L
W
W
|
3-1 | 3-1 · 75.0% | 1-3 · 25% | 2 | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% | 26 vs Patriots (W3) |
| 6 |
L
W
W
W
|
3-1 | 3-1 · 75.0% | 3-1 · 75% | 0 | 4 | 100% | 50% | 75% | 12.5 vs Buccaneers (W2) |
| 7 |
W
W
W
L
|
3-1 | 3-1 · 75.0% | 3-1 · 75% | 4 | 0 | 67% | 100% | 50% | 4.5 vs Lions (W2) |
| 8 |
W
W
W
L
|
4-0 | 3-1 · 75.0% | 1-3 · 25% | 3 | 1 | 50% | 100% | 75% | 15.5 vs Packers (W1) |
| 9 |
W
L
W
W
|
3-1 | 3-1 · 75.0% | 1-2 · 33% | 1 | 3 | 100% | 0% | 75% | 14.5 vs Cardinals (W4) |
| 10 |
L
W
W
W
|
2-2 | 3-1 · 75.0% | 3-0 · 100% | 2 | 2 | 100% | 50% | 25% | 13 vs Commanders (W2) |
| 11 |
P
W
L
W
|
2-2 | 2-1 · 66.7% | 1-3 · 25% | 1 | 3 | 100% | 50% | 75% | 12 vs Steelers (W2) |
| 12 |
P
W
L
P
|
3-1 | 1-1 · 50.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 4 | 0 | 0% | 50% | 25% | 20 vs Cardinals (W2) |
| 13 |
L
W
L
W
|
2-2 | 2-2 · 50.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 4 | 0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 15 vs Giants (W2) |
| 14 |
W
W
L
L
|
2-2 | 2-2 · 50.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 3 | 1 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 16.5 vs Texans (W2) |
| 15 |
W
W
L
L
|
1-3 | 2-2 · 50.0% | 3-1 · 75% | 2 | 2 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 15.5 vs Ravens (W2) |
| 16 |
L
W
L
W
|
0-4 | 2-2 · 50.0% | 1-3 · 25% | 1 | 3 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 5.5 vs Ravens (W4) |
| 17 |
W
W
L
L
|
1-3 | 2-2 · 50.0% | 1-3 · 25% | 0 | 4 | 100% | 33% | 75% | 14.5 vs Titans (W1) |
| 18 |
W
L
W
L
|
2-2 | 2-2 · 50.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0% | 50% | 6.5 vs Bengals (W3) |
| 19 |
L
L
W
W
|
2-2 | 2-2 · 50.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 0 | 4 | 0% | 67% | 50% | 26.5 vs Packers (W3) |
| 20 |
L
W
L
W
|
2-2 | 2-2 · 50.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 2 | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 28.5 vs Falcons (W2) |
| 21 |
W
L
W
L
|
1-3 | 2-2 · 50.0% | 3-1 · 75% | 0 | 4 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 9 vs Seahawks (W3) |
| 22 |
W
L
W
L
|
1-3 | 2-2 · 50.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 1 | 3 | 0% | 67% | 50% | 21.5 vs Chargers (W1) |
| 23 |
W
L
W
L
|
4-0 | 2-2 · 50.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 4 | 0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 18.5 vs Broncos (W1) |
| 24 |
L
W
W
L
|
2-2 | 2-2 · 50.0% | 1-3 · 25% | 1 | 3 | 100% | 0% | 25% | 6.5 vs Rams (W3) |
| 25 |
L
L
L
W
|
0-4 | 1-3 · 25.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 1 | 3 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0.5 vs Packers (W4) |
| 26 |
L
L
W
L
|
2-2 | 1-3 · 25.0% | 4-0 · 100% | 3 | 1 | 50% | 0% | 25% | 0.5 vs Jets (W3) |
| 27 |
W
L
L
L
|
3-1 | 1-3 · 25.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 4 | 0 | 0% | 50% | 100% | 14.5 vs Colts (W1) |
| 28 |
L
L
L
W
|
0-4 | 1-3 · 25.0% | 1-3 · 25% | 0 | 4 | 0% | 33% | 0% | 5.5 vs Vikings (W4) |
| 29 |
L
L
L
L
|
0-4 | 0-4 · 0.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 25% | -4 vs Bills (W1) |
| 30 |
L
L
L
L
|
2-2 | 0-4 · 0.0% | 2-2 · 50% | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 50% | -0.5 vs Jets (W2) |
| 31 |
L
L
L
L
|
2-2 | 0-4 · 0.0% | 3-1 · 75% | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 75% | -1 vs Rams (W4) |
| 32 |
L
L
L
P
|
0-4 | 0-3 · 0.0% | 1-3 · 25% | 2 | 2 | 0% | 0% | 25% | 0 vs Seahawks (W4) |
🔥 Hot Teams
Top of the league momentum board
❄️ Cold Teams to Fade
Bottom of the momentum board
Miami Dolphins
L4 0-4 · Streak L4 · Pt Diff -55
Struggling both sides of the ball recently (25.3 allowed/G)
New Orleans Saints
L4 1-3 · Streak L2 · Pt Diff -23
Struggling both sides of the ball recently (32 allowed/G)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
L4 0-4 · Streak L4 · Pt Diff -20
Struggling both sides of the ball recently (24 allowed/G)
Los Angeles Chargers
L4 0-4 · Streak L4 · Pt Diff -39
Struggling both sides of the ball recently (26.5 allowed/G)
Momentum Board
Top 15 teams by the NFL momentum sticker — Power Rank seed, moved each week by result quality
Bashers vs Bums
Punter Metric2026 results split by season tier — how teams perform vs the Top 8 vs the Bottom 8.
Top 8
49ers
Chiefs
Vikings
Jaguars
Bears
Seahawks
Raiders
Ravens
Bottom 8
Saints
Cardinals
Commanders
Buccaneers
Texans
Titans
Chargers
Dolphins
| # | Team | Tier | Overall | vs Top 8 (SU) | vs Top 8 (ATS) | vs Bot 8 (SU) | vs Bot 8 (ATS) | Profile | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
San Francisco 49ers
|
Top 8 | 4-0 100% |
— | — | 2-0 100% |
1-1 50% |
Insufficient data | — |
| 2 |
Kansas City Chiefs
|
Top 8 | 4-0 100% |
1-0 100% |
0-1 0% |
1-0 100% |
1-0 100% |
Elite – Consistent | 1.00 |
| 3 |
Minnesota Vikings
|
Top 8 | 4-0 100% |
1-0 100% |
1-0 100% |
2-0 100% |
1-1 50% |
Elite – Consistent | 1.00 |
| 4 |
Jacksonville Jaguars
|
Top 8 | 3-1 75% |
— | — | — | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 5 |
Chicago Bears
|
Top 8 | 3-1 75% |
0-1 0% |
0-1 0% |
— | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 6 |
Seattle Seahawks
|
Top 8 | 3-1 75% |
— | — | 2-1 66.7% |
1-1 33.3% |
Insufficient data | — |
| 7 |
Las Vegas Raiders
|
Top 8 | 3-1 75% |
0-1 0% |
1-0 100% |
3-0 100% |
3-0 100% |
Basher of Bums | 0.00 |
| 8 |
Baltimore Ravens
|
Top 8 | 3-1 75% |
— | — | 1-1 50% |
0-2 0% |
Insufficient data | — |
| 9 |
Buffalo Bills
|
Mid | 3-1 75% |
— | — | 2-0 100% |
2-0 100% |
Insufficient data | — |
| 10 |
New York Giants
|
Mid | 3-1 75% |
— | — | 2-0 100% |
2-0 100% |
Insufficient data | — |
| 11 |
Cleveland Browns
|
Mid | 3-1 75% |
0-1 0% |
0-1 0% |
1-0 100% |
1-0 100% |
Basher of Bums | 0.00 |
| 12 |
Cincinnati Bengals
|
Mid | 2-2 50% |
0-1 0% |
0-1 0% |
2-0 100% |
2-0 100% |
Basher of Bums | 0.00 |
| 13 |
Carolina Panthers
|
Mid | 2-2 50% |
0-1 0% |
0-1 0% |
— | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 14 |
Dallas Cowboys
|
Mid | 2-2 50% |
0-1 0% |
1-0 100% |
2-0 100% |
2-0 100% |
Basher of Bums | 0.00 |
| 15 |
Atlanta Falcons
|
Mid | 2-2 50% |
— | — | 1-0 100% |
1-0 100% |
Insufficient data | — |
| 16 |
Los Angeles Rams
|
Mid | 2-2 50% |
0-1 0% |
0-1 0% |
— | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 17 |
Indianapolis Colts
|
Mid | 2-2 50% |
0-2 0% |
1-1 50% |
2-0 100% |
2-0 100% |
Basher of Bums | 0.00 |
| 18 |
Detroit Lions
|
Mid | 2-2 50% |
— | — | 1-0 100% |
0-1 0% |
Insufficient data | — |
| 19 |
Pittsburgh Steelers
|
Mid | 2-2 50% |
— | — | — | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 20 |
New England Patriots
|
Mid | 2-2 50% |
0-2 0% |
0-1 0% |
— | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 21 |
Philadelphia Eagles
|
Mid | 2-2 50% |
0-1 0% |
0-1 0% |
2-0 100% |
0-2 0% |
Basher of Bums | 0.00 |
| 22 |
Denver Broncos
|
Mid | 2-2 50% |
1-2 33.3% |
1-2 33.3% |
— | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 23 |
Green Bay Packers
|
Mid | 2-2 50% |
0-1 0% |
0-1 0% |
1-0 100% |
0-1 0% |
Basher of Bums | 0.00 |
| 24 |
New York Jets
|
Mid | 1-3 25% |
0-1 0% |
0-1 0% |
1-0 100% |
1-0 100% |
Basher of Bums | 0.00 |
| 25 |
New Orleans Saints
|
Bot 8 | 1-3 25% |
1-1 50% |
1-1 50% |
— | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 26 |
Arizona Cardinals
|
Bot 8 | 1-3 25% |
0-2 0% |
1-1 50% |
1-0 100% |
1-0 100% |
Basher of Bums | 0.00 |
| 27 |
Washington Commanders
|
Bot 8 | 1-3 25% |
1-0 100% |
1-0 100% |
— | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 28 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
|
Bot 8 | 0-4 0% |
0-1 0% |
0-1 0% |
— | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 29 |
Houston Texans
|
Bot 8 | 0-4 0% |
— | — | — | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 30 |
Tennessee Titans
|
Bot 8 | 0-4 0% |
0-1 0% |
1-0 100% |
— | — | Insufficient data | — |
| 31 |
Los Angeles Chargers
|
Bot 8 | 0-4 0% |
0-2 0% |
0-1 0% |
0-1 0% |
0-1 0% |
Struggle vs Quality | — |
| 32 |
Miami Dolphins
|
Bot 8 | 0-4 0% |
0-4 0% |
1-3 25% |
— | — | Insufficient data | — |
Prop Betting Records (vs posted line)
True Over/Under records — consensus prop lines settled against actual box scores. Anytime TD = scored a rushing/receiving TD.
Passing Yards
Over 53.3% (64-56)
Tyler Shough
Matthew Stafford
Aaron Rodgers
Lamar Jackson
Jared Goff
Geno Smith
Rushing Yards
Over 44.0% (153-195)
Brock Purdy
Brian Robinson Jr.
Bhayshul Tuten
Aaron Jones
Kyren Williams
Bijan Robinson
Receiving Yards
Over 48.7% (353-372)
Rome Odunze
Chris Olave
Juwan Johnson
Kyren Williams
George Kittle
Luther Burden III
Receptions
Over 47.4% (342-379)
Chris Olave
Trey McBride
Kyren Williams
Mark Andrews
Rome Odunze
Kyle Monangai
Anytime TD
Hit 13.2% (267-1762)
Derrick Henry
Josh Allen
Jahmyr Gibbs
Christian McCaffrey
Kyren Williams
George Kittle
Market Performance
Hit rate of the labelled side, with the dark tick at the 52.4% break-even needed to beat the vig. Bars that stop short of it had no edge; a red bar means fade to the other side.
Week-by-Week Tracker
How the key markets shifted week to week. Each point is that week in isolation; the dashed line is the 50% coin-flip mark.
Season Story
RefreshThe Las Vegas Raiders stand out as the clearest team to back against the spread. They have covered in all four of their games for a perfect 100% ATS rate, comfortably clearing the roughly 52.4% break-even line. The Raiders have done so while operating primarily as underdogs, starting three games on that side of the number and securing two wins in those spots. Their covers have come evenly at home and on the road, and they have beaten the closing line in every outing. First-half form has reinforced the trend, with the Raiders leading at the break in all four contests.
At the opposite end, the Los Angeles Chargers have been the clearest fade. They enter with a 0-3-1 ATS record, failing to cover in any of their four games. The Chargers have been unable to deliver results whether installed as favourites or underdogs, and their lone push has offered little relief for bettors.
The Raiders also fit the profile of a strong underdog play, having received three starts as the underdog and converting two of those into victories while covering every time. Their biggest spread cover came in Week 2, a 26-14 win over the Chargers in which they cleared a 6.5-point line by 18.5 points.
Several other teams have posted eye-catching covers early. The Carolina Panthers delivered the season’s largest margin cover at 28.5 points in a Week 2 win over the Atlanta Falcons. The San Francisco 49ers followed with a 23.5-point cover in Week 1 against the Rams, while the Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars each posted covers of 24.5 and 26 points, respectively. These results highlight the volatility that has defined the early spread market.
