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NFL SEASON ANALYSIS Team Betting Analysis Player Prop

NFL 2026 Bombcard - Best Plays, Edges and Predictions

The NFL 2026 Bombcard combines the Youngbloods Betting Engine with expert human oversight from experienced sports analysts. Every play is model-generated then rigorously reviewed and vetoed before being ranked by true probability and edge, with clear unit staking recommendations. The page updates live as odds and model outputs change.

NFL Bombcard

Published veto plays · Regular · Week 5 · 2026
Match by Match — of games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB 24
vs
10 Dallas Cowboys DAL
1 play
Oct 9 11:15 am · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX · Week: 5 · Proj 23–29 · Proj total 52
▾ 📊 Form & Match Preview Form · Preview
📊 Form Snapshot
Away
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 COOL · L4
(0-4) R 0-1 H 0-3
Avg For 19 · Avg Agt 24
Power #29 Off #27 Def #18 Run 38%
OFF 278y #28 · 172 pass / 106 rush
DEF 283y #4 · 204 pass / 79 rush
L5
SU
L
L
L
L
–
ATS
L
L
L
W
–
O/U
O
O
U
U
–
Score
27-33
19-23
16-23
14-17
–
Home
Dallas Cowboys 50 WARM · W1
(2-2) R 1-1 H 1-1
Avg For 30.5 · Avg Agt 28
Power #17 Off #7 Def #32 Run 26%
OFF 348y #12 · 258 pass / 90 rush
DEF 390y #30 · 239 pass / 150 rush
L5
SU
L
W
L
W
–
ATS
L
W
W
W
–
O/U
U
O
O
O
–
Score
20-28
37-20
31-34
34-30
–
📊 Matchup▾
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Away
Dallas Cowboys
Home
PTS FOR 19.0 25th 28.0 28th PTS AGT
PTS AGT 24.0 20th 30.5 2nd PTS FOR
PASS OFF 172 29th 239 24th PASS DEF
RUSH OFF 106 17th 150 31st RUSH DEF
PASS DEF 204 9th 258 7th PASS OFF
RUSH DEF 79 3rd 90 25th RUSH OFF
📈 Team Stats▾
42% · 31st
RED ZONE
81% · 3rd
6 · 31st P3 R3
TDs
14 · 5th P8 R6
1.5 · 27th
SACKS
1.0 · 30th
1.0 · 17th
TAKEAWAYS
0.5 · 32nd
9.0 / 14.3
1ST HALF
10.8 / 14.3
10.0 / 9.8
2ND HALF
19.8 / 13.8
61 plays · 30:00
PACE
73 plays · 28:59
28.9 · 4th
KICK RET
28.1 · 6th
11.4 · 10th
PUNT RET
11.3 · 11th
45.4 · 28th
PUNT
51.4 · 4th
Chase McLaughlin
9/9 · 100%
FG
Brandon Aubrey
8/11 · 73%
🏈 Players▾
Baker Mayfield QB
Passing vs a 24th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 23/28 216/0• W2 21/34 182/1• W3 17/34 217/1• W4 DNP
Season 20.3/32.0 205 yds
0.7 TD • 0.7 INT • 2 TDs
Dak Prescott QB
Passing vs a 9th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 22/34 175/2• W2 26/31 279/4• W3 25/40 276/1• W4 32/45 335/1
Season 26.3/37.5 266 yds
2.0 TD • 0.3 INT • 8 TDs
Bucky Irving RB
Rushing vs a 31st-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 8/45/1• W2 17/89/0• W3 15/46/0• W4 16/61/0
Season 14.0 car · 60 yds · 0.3 TD
Javonte Williams RB
Rushing vs a 3rd-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 12/41/1• W2 12/30/0• W3 19/98/1• W4 19/62/3
Season 15.5 car · 58 yds · 1.3 TD
Emeka Egbuka WR
Receiving vs a 24th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 6>5/63/0• W2 5>3/16/1• W3 9>5/62/0• W4 4>2/13/0
Season 3.8 rec · 39 yds · 0.3 TD
6.0 tgt · 1 TD
CeeDee Lamb WR
Receiving vs a 9th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 8>5/44/1• W2 9>8/153/2• W3 8>7/112/0• W4 21>17/189/1
Season 9.3 rec · 125 yds · 1.0 TD
11.5 tgt · 4 TD
🩹 Injuries▾
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Antoine Winfield Jr. Sidelined
Baker Mayfield Sidelined
Ko Kieft Q
Benjamin Morrison Q
+16
Dallas Cowboys
DeMarvion Overshown Q
Decobie Durant Q
Drew Shelton Q
Tyler Smith IR
+10
✏️ Match Preview
Dallas comes into Week 5 with the better recent form after a Week 4 victory that halted a two-game slide. The Cowboys sit at 2-2 overall and have averaged 30.5 points per game while generating 258 passing yards per outing. Tampa Bay arrives at 0-4 with a four-game losing streak and has scored just 19 points per game while allowing 24. At home in AT&T Stadium, Dallas has operated with a clearer offensive identity than on the road. The market lists the Cowboys as 5.5-point favorites with the total set at 23.5. Dallas will aim to establish early leads that force Tampa Bay into predictable passing situations where the Cowboys’ front can generate pressure. Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled to finish drives, converting just 41.67 percent of red-zone trips. The low total suggests both defenses are expected to keep the score in check, but Dallas’ higher-scoring profile at home gives them the clearer path to controlling the game script. With multiple starters questionable on both sides, the Cowboys’ ability to stay healthy along the offensive line will be key to sustaining drives against a Tampa Bay defense that has limited explosive plays on the road.
🔑 Keys to Success
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Lean on 106 rush yards per game to create 2nd-and-long; Tampa Bay team total sits at a road-friendly number near 23.5.
  • Convert red-zone trips above 41.67 percent; Dallas secondary has allowed explosive plays when opponents reach the 20.
  • Keep Dallas in obvious passing downs; Cowboys pass rush has produced pressure when ahead by double digits.
  • home
Dallas Cowboys
  • Exploit 258 pass yards per game against a Tampa Bay secondary that has allowed 24 points; Cowboys team total looks home-inflated versus 23.5.
  • Force Tampa Bay into 3rd-and-long early; Buccaneers offense has converted just 41.67 percent of red-zone chances.
  • Protect the edge with multiple starters out; Dallas run defense must limit Tampa Bay’s 106 rush yards to keep the total under 26.
  • away
▾ 📋 Reports Time Report
All Markets — 1 play(s) Units Risked — 1u
Play / SideMarketBookmakerLine OddsTrue%Edge%Tier UnitsResult
DAL ML
 Head to Head betfair_ex_au — 1.23 59.6% -21.7% T1 1u —
5.10 H2H 1.23
1.92 (+8.5) SPREAD 1.95 (-10.5)
1.95 (U47) O/U 1.97 (O47.5)
📍 AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX 📋 Matchcast
TB 🏈
DAL 🏈
Scoring Plays
Bucky Irving
Bucky Irving
RB • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2-2
Balanced
RUSHING YARDS
Averaging 60.3 against a 59.9 line — 50% Overs.
FORM
U O U O
Over last 1
Cade Otton
🔥 Cade Otton
WR/TE • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3-1
Strong Over
RECEIVING YARDS
Averaging 39.3 against a 28.5 line — 75% Overs.
FORM
U O O O
Over last 3
Dak Prescott
🔥 Dak Prescott
QB • Dallas Cowboys
3-1
Strong Over
PASSING YARDS
Averaging 266.3 against a 265.5 line — 75% Overs.
FORM
U O O O
Over last 3
Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams
RB • Dallas Cowboys
2-2
Balanced
RUSHING YARDS
Averaging 57.8 against a 66.8 line — 50% Overs.
FORM
U U O O
Over last 2
CeeDee Lamb
🔥 CeeDee Lamb
WR/TE • Dallas Cowboys
3-1
Strong Over
RECEIVING YARDS
Averaging 124.5 against a 77.9 line — 75% Overs.
FORM
U O O O
Over last 3
Player Stats
Player
Play by Play
NFL LOGIN S3
Philadelphia Eagles PHI 0
vs
0 Jacksonville Jaguars JAX
0 plays
Oct 12 12:30 am · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, · Week: 5 · Proj 15–27 · Proj total 42
▾ 📊 Form & Match Preview Form · Preview
📊 Form Snapshot
Away
Philadelphia Eagles 44 COOL · L2
(2-2) R 1-1 H 1-1
Avg For 18.8 · Avg Agt 23.3
Power #19 Off #23 Def #14 Run 40%
OFF 270y #29 · 161 pass / 109 rush
DEF 344y #21 · 222 pass / 122 rush
L5
SU
W
W
L
L
–
ATS
L
L
L
L
–
O/U
O
O
U
O
–
Score
24-22
24-20
7-27
20-24
–
Home
Jacksonville Jaguars 88 WARM · W2
(3-1) R 1-1 H 2-0
Avg For 26 · Avg Agt 13.3
Power #5 Off #11 Def #2 Run 37%
OFF 317y #18 · 199 pass / 117 rush
DEF 355y #25 · 280 pass / 74 rush
L5
SU
W
L
W
W
–
ATS
W
L
W
W
–
O/U
O
U
U
U
–
Score
34-10
13-20
35-6
22-17
–
📊 Matchup▾
Philadelphia Eagles
Away
Jacksonville Jaguars
Home
PTS FOR 18.8 26th 13.3 2nd PTS AGT
PTS AGT 23.3 16th 26.0 12th PTS FOR
PASS OFF 161 31st 280 31st PASS DEF
RUSH OFF 109 15th 74 2nd RUSH DEF
PASS DEF 222 17th 199 19th PASS OFF
RUSH DEF 122 23rd 117 11th RUSH OFF
📈 Team Stats▾
62% · 13th
RED ZONE
82% · 2nd
9 · 19th P7 R2
TDs
12 · 11th P8 R4
1.0 · 31st
SACKS
2.5 · 9th
0.5 · 31st
TAKEAWAYS
2.0 · 4th
13.8 / 9.8
1ST HALF
15.3 / 2.3
5.0 / 13.5
2ND HALF
10.8 / 11.0
58 plays · 28:33
PACE
54 plays · 30:53
23.3 · 29th
KICK RET
26.7 · 13th
13.5 · 4th
PUNT RET
2.5 · 32nd
49.0 · 13th
PUNT
48.4 · 16th
Jake Elliott
4/4 · 100%
FG
Cam Little
7/9 · 78%
🏈 Players▾
Jalen Hurts QB
Passing vs a 31st-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 14/25 203/3• W2 26/37 264/2• W3 16/25 153/0• W4 12/27 93/2
Season 17.0/28.5 178 yds
1.8 TD • 0.8 INT • 7 TDs
Trevor Lawrence QB
Passing vs a 17th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 18/23 245/4• W2 17/29 189/0• W3 19/29 182/3• W4 18/23 227/1
Season 18.0/26.0 211 yds
2.0 TD • 0.5 INT • 8 TDs
Saquon Barkley RB
Rushing vs a 2nd-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 15/83/0• W2 4/9/0• W3 15/82/0• W4 2/8/0
Season 9.0 car · 46 yds · 0.0 TD
Bhayshul Tuten RB
Rushing vs a 23rd-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 15/66/0• W2 13/65/1• W3 15/73/1• W4 17/73/0
Season 15.0 car · 69 yds · 0.5 TD
DeVonta Smith WR
Receiving vs a 31st-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 6>3/53/0• W2 13>10/117/1• W3 8>6/65/0• W4 DNP
Season 6.3 rec · 78 yds · 0.3 TD
9.0 tgt · 1 TD
Parker Washington WR
Receiving vs a 17th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 6>5/83/1• W2 12>7/98/0• W3 5>3/40/1• W4 3>1/7/0
Season 4.0 rec · 57 yds · 0.5 TD
6.5 tgt · 2 TD
🩹 Injuries▾
Philadelphia Eagles
Tank Bigsby Sidelined
Chance Campbell Sidelined
Cam Jurgens Q
Zack Baun Q
+20
Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian Braswell Q
Montaric Brown Q
Caleb Ransaw Q
Eric Murray Q
+12
✏️ Match Preview
Jacksonville Jaguars arrive in London on a W2 streak and hold the clearer recent form at 3-1 overall. Their offense posts 26 points per game with 199.3 passing yards and an 81.82 red-zone rate, while the defense has surrendered just 13.3 points per contest. Philadelphia enters at 2-2 after dropping its last two and has averaged only 18.8 points while allowing 23.3. The market frames Jacksonville as -3.5 favorites with the total set at 21.5. In a neutral-site game, the Jaguars’ ability to lean on both the run and pass gives them multiple ways to dictate tempo. Philadelphia’s road splits show inconsistency, and their current L2 skid has come against teams that limited explosive plays. Jacksonville’s defensive numbers have been built on keeping opponents out of rhythm, a profile that aligns with keeping the total low. The Jaguars have also shown they can win without needing massive margins, fitting the modest spread. With multiple starters questionable across both rosters, the steadier unit with the better recent results holds the edge in controlling the game script from start to finish.
🔑 Keys to Success
Philadelphia Eagles
  • Establish the run early to control possession; Eagles rushing yards per game support staying within the +3.5
  • Force Jacksonville into third-and-long situations; their 13.3 points-allowed average is built on limiting explosive drives
  • Lean on red-zone efficiency above 60 percent to keep the 21.5 total reachable if field position favors Philadelphia
Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Use 26 points-per-game offense and 81.82 red-zone rate to push the total toward the upper end of the 18-25 band
  • Exploit Philadelphia’s 23.3 points allowed by attacking the perimeter on early downs; Jaguars passing yards per game back the -3.5
  • Keep the Eagles offense under 20 points to validate the low total and home-favored spread in the neutral-site matchup
▾ 📋 Reports Time Report
No qualifying plays for this game.
3.65 H2H 1.37
2.00 (+6.5) SPREAD 2.02 (-7.5)
1.96 (U42.5) O/U 1.93 (O43)
📍 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, 📋 Matchcast
PHI 🏈
JAX 🏈
Scoring Plays
Jalen Hurts
❄️ Jalen Hurts
QB • Philadelphia Eagles
1-3
Strong Under
PASSING YARDS
Averaging 178.3 against a 205.4 line — 25% Overs.
FORM
U O U U
Under last 2
Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley
RB • Philadelphia Eagles
2-2
Balanced
RUSHING YARDS
Averaging 45.5 against a 74.1 line — 50% Overs.
FORM
O U O U
Under last 1
Dontayvion Wicks
Dontayvion Wicks
WR/TE • Philadelphia Eagles
2-2
Balanced
RECEIVING YARDS
Averaging 49.3 against a 39.1 line — 50% Overs.
FORM
O O U U
Under last 2
Trevor Lawrence
❄️ Trevor Lawrence
QB • Jacksonville Jaguars
1-3
Strong Under
PASSING YARDS
Averaging 210.8 against a 234.3 line — 25% Overs.
FORM
O U U U
Under last 3
Bhayshul Tuten
🔥 Bhayshul Tuten
RB • Jacksonville Jaguars
4-0
Strong Over
RUSHING YARDS
Averaging 69.3 against a 51.4 line — 100% Overs.
FORM
O O O O
Over last 4
Parker Washington
Parker Washington
WR/TE • Jacksonville Jaguars
2-2
Balanced
RECEIVING YARDS
Averaging 57 against a 62.8 line — 50% Overs.
FORM
O O U U
Under last 2
NFL LOGIN S4
Houston Texans HOU 0
vs
0 Tennessee Titans TEN
0 plays
Oct 12 4:00 am · Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN · Week: 5 · Proj 20–23 · Proj total 42
▾ 📊 Form & Match Preview Form · Preview
📊 Form Snapshot
Away
Houston Texans 69 COOL · L4
(0-4) R 0-1 H 0-3
Avg For 21 · Avg Agt 27.3
Power #11 Off #21 Def #3 Run 23%
OFF 344y #14 · 265 pass / 79 rush
DEF 344y #20 · 260 pass / 84 rush
L5
SU
L
L
L
L
–
ATS
L
L
L
L
–
O/U
O
U
U
O
–
Score
31-36
6-20
17-19
30-34
–
Home
Tennessee Titans 41 COOL · L4
(0-4) R 0-2 H 0-2
Avg For 13.8 · Avg Agt 20.8
Power #20 Off #32 Def #27 Run 34%
OFF 261y #32 · 172 pass / 89 rush
DEF 333y #15 · 210 pass / 123 rush
L5
SU
L
L
L
L
–
ATS
L
W
L
W
–
O/U
U
O
U
U
–
Score
10-23
20-24
7-12
18-24
–
📊 Matchup▾
Houston Texans
Away
Tennessee Titans
Home
PTS FOR 21.0 20th 20.8 9th PTS AGT
PTS AGT 27.3 26th 13.8 31st PTS FOR
PASS OFF 265 6th 210 13th PASS DEF
RUSH OFF 79 30th 123 24th RUSH DEF
PASS DEF 260 28th 172 28th PASS OFF
RUSH DEF 84 4th 89 26th RUSH OFF
📈 Team Stats▾
57% · 15th
RED ZONE
50% · 25th
9 · 17th P5 R4
TDs
6 · 29th P3 R3
3.5 · 4th
SACKS
2.0 · 18th
0.8 · 27th
TAKEAWAYS
0.5 · 29th
11.8 / 12.5
1ST HALF
5.0 / 14.3
9.3 / 14.8
2ND HALF
8.8 / 6.5
52 plays · 29:12
PACE
58 plays · 24:19
24.6 · 25th
KICK RET
26.4 · 15th
8.5 · 21st
PUNT RET
7.1 · 23rd
49.1 · 11th
PUNT
49.2 · 10th
Ka'imi Fairbairn
7/8 · 88%
FG
Joey Slye
4/5 · 80%
🏈 Players▾
C.J. Stroud QB
Passing vs a 13th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 26/38 274/2• W2 30/55 353/0• W3 16/27 167/1• W4 21/31 347/2
Season 23.3/37.8 285 yds
1.3 TD • 0.0 INT • 5 TDs
Cam Ward QB
Passing vs a 28th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 19/32 140/1• W2 13/20 183/0• W3 23/36 181/1• W4 20/31 222/1
Season 18.8/29.8 182 yds
0.8 TD • 0.5 INT • 3 TDs
Woody Marks RB
Rushing vs a 24th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 9/42/0• W2 8/8/0• W3 5/15/1• W4 6/22/1
Season 7.0 car · 22 yds · 0.5 TD
Tony Pollard RB
Rushing vs a 4th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 7/35/0• W2 14/64/0• W3 17/74/0• W4 16/48/1
Season 13.5 car · 55 yds · 0.3 TD
Nico Collins WR
Receiving vs a 13th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 10>7/75/1• W2 DNP• W3 DNP• W4 8>7/118/2
Season 7.0 rec · 97 yds · 1.5 TD
9.0 tgt · 3 TD
Elic Ayomanor WR
Receiving vs a 28th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 3>1/11/1• W2 3>2/69/0• W3 3>1/11/0• W4 1>1/22/0
Season 1.3 rec · 28 yds · 0.3 TD
2.5 tgt · 1 TD
🩹 Injuries▾
Houston Texans
Noah Whittington Sidelined
Azeez Al-Shaair Q
Jaylin Smith Q
Jaden Crumedy Q
+24
Tennessee Titans
Shad Banks Jr. Q
Sean Brown Q
Justin Hardee Q
Nazeeh Johnson Q
+11
✏️ Match Preview
The Houston Texans arrive in Nashville as 3.5-point favorites in a Week 5 AFC South matchup at Nissan Stadium. Both teams open the afternoon at 0-4, yet Houston’s offense has shown clearer signs of functionality, averaging 21 points per game with 264.8 passing yards while the Titans have managed only 13.8 points and 172.3 passing yards. The Texans have also converted 57 percent of red-zone trips compared with Tennessee’s 50 percent. Houston’s road sample is small but the unit has produced more explosive plays than its counterpart. The 19.5 total underscores the defensive nature of both sides; Tennessee has surrendered 20.8 points per game while Houston has allowed 27.3. In a divisional setting the game script often tilts toward field-position battles and third-down stops rather than big plays. Multiple starters remain questionable for both clubs, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already low-scoring projection. Houston’s ability to sustain drives through the air should keep them ahead of the number even on the road.
🔑 Keys to Success
Houston Texans
  • Exploit Tennessee’s limited passing production; Houston’s 264.8 passing yards per game should push the total toward the posted 19.5 ceiling.
  • Convert red-zone trips at 57 percent rate; the Texans team total sits as the sharper side in a low-scoring divisional spot.
  • Force third-and-long situations; Houston’s defense has allowed 27.3 points but can leverage the spread if the Titans stay behind the sticks.
Tennessee Titans
  • Limit Houston’s explosive passing game; Tennessee’s 20.8 points allowed per game keeps the 19.5 total in play at home.
  • Control the run game early; the Titans’ 89 rushing yards per game can keep drives alive and hold the 3.5-point number.
  • Win field position in the second half; Tennessee’s lower red-zone efficiency at 50 percent still offers value if the game stays under 23 points.
▾ 📋 Reports Time Report
No qualifying plays for this game.
1.34 H2H 3.70
2.00 (-7.5) SPREAD 1.97 (+6.5)
1.90 (U39.5) O/U 1.95 (O39.5)
📍 Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN 📋 Matchcast
HOU 🏈
TEN 🏈
Scoring Plays
NFL BOMBCARD S1
Cincinnati Bengals CIN 0
vs
0 Miami Dolphins MIA
0 plays
Oct 12 4:00 am · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL · Week: 5 · Proj 24–18 · Proj total 42
▾ 📊 Form & Match Preview Form · Preview
📊 Form Snapshot
Away
Cincinnati Bengals 47 STEADY · L2
(2-2) R 1-1 H 1-1
Avg For 24.3 · Avg Agt 21.3
Power #18 Off #12 Def #23 Run 21%
OFF 352y #11 · 278 pass / 74 rush
DEF 348y #22 · 248 pass / 100 rush
L5
SU
W
W
L
L
–
ATS
W
W
L
L
–
O/U
O
U
O
U
–
Score
33-27
20-6
27-30
17-22
–
Home
Miami Dolphins 9 COOL · L4
(0-4) R 0-3 H 0-1
Avg For 11.5 · Avg Agt 25.3
Power #30 Off #28 Def #28 Run 39%
OFF 268y #30 · 164 pass / 104 rush
DEF 336y #17 · 227 pass / 109 rush
L5
SU
L
L
L
L
–
ATS
L
L
L
W
–
O/U
U
O
U
U
–
Score
13-27
13-35
10-24
10-15
–
📊 Matchup▾
Cincinnati Bengals
Away
Miami Dolphins
Home
PTS FOR 24.3 14th 25.3 21st PTS AGT
PTS AGT 21.3 13th 11.5 32nd PTS FOR
PASS OFF 278 5th 227 19th PASS DEF
RUSH OFF 74 31st 109 15th RUSH DEF
PASS DEF 248 26th 164 30th PASS OFF
RUSH DEF 100 8th 104 19th RUSH OFF
📈 Team Stats▾
50% · 23rd
RED ZONE
33% · 32nd
9 · 16th P7 R2
TDs
4 · 32nd P1 R3
3.5 · 3rd
SACKS
1.0 · 29th
1.3 · 13th
TAKEAWAYS
0.8 · 28th
12.8 / 10.8
1ST HALF
4.8 / 13.5
11.5 / 10.5
2ND HALF
6.8 / 11.8
71 plays · 30:49
PACE
37 plays · 27:38
26.2 · 16th
KICK RET
25.8 · 18th
4.7 · 29th
PUNT RET
8.0 · 22nd
43.3 · 32nd
PUNT
43.9 · 31st
Evan McPherson
9/9 · 100%
FG
Riley Patterson
6/8 · 75%
🏈 Players▾
Joe Burrow QB
Passing vs a 19th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 25/35 254/1• W2 20/31 207/2• W3 28/37 282/3• W4 39/54 428/1
Season 28.0/39.3 293 yds
1.8 TD • 0.8 INT • 7 TDs
Malik Willis QB
Passing vs a 26th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 15/27 220/0• W2 14/23 197/1• W3 20/36 210/0• W4 9/17 85/0
Season 14.5/25.8 178 yds
0.3 TD • 0.5 INT • 1 TDs
Chase Brown RB
Rushing vs a 15th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 16/56/1• W2 20/80/0• W3 13/61/0• W4 9/10/0
Season 14.5 car · 52 yds · 0.3 TD
Ollie Gordon II RB
Rushing vs a 8th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 DNP• W2 3/7/0• W3 17/41/1• W4 9/100/1
Season 9.7 car · 49 yds · 0.7 TD
Tee Higgins WR
Receiving vs a 19th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 6>3/59/0• W2 10>5/95/0• W3 7>6/90/1• W4 16>11/157/0
Season 6.3 rec · 100 yds · 0.3 TD
9.8 tgt · 1 TD
Malik Washington WR
Receiving vs a 26th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 8>3/53/0• W2 5>4/43/0• W3 10>5/56/0• W4 5>5/67/0
Season 4.3 rec · 55 yds · 0.0 TD
7.0 tgt · 0 TD
🩹 Injuries▾
Cincinnati Bengals
Swayze Bozeman Q
Bryan Cook Q
Colbie Young Q
Kyle Dugger Q
+9
Miami Dolphins
Reese Taylor Sidelined
Tyreek Hill Sidelined
Robert Beal Jr. Q
Caleb Douglas Q
+18
✏️ Match Preview
Cincinnati Bengals arrive in Miami at 2-2, losers of their last two but still the clearer form side. Their offense has averaged 24.3 points and 277.5 passing yards while the defense has allowed 21.3. Miami Dolphins are winless at 0-4, scoring just 11.5 points per game and surrendering 25.3. The Bengals are installed as 3.5-point road favorites in a contest whose 21.5 total already prices in the extensive injury list. Cincinnati is 1-1 away from home; Miami is 0-1 inside Hard Rock Stadium. Multiple starters are questionable for both clubs, yet the Bengals retain the superior balance on both sides of the ball. Their red-zone efficiency at 50 percent should prove decisive against a Dolphins unit that converts just 33 percent inside the 20. The low total suggests a grind-it-out affair, but Cincinnati’s ability to move the ball through the air gives them the clearer path to covering the number on the road.
🔑 Keys to Success
Cincinnati Bengals
  • Move the ball through the air against Miami’s 163.5 pass yards allowed; Bengals favored at -3.5 on the road.
  • Finish drives inside the 20 after posting 50% red-zone efficiency; low 21.5 total rewards field position control.
  • Contain Miami’s 104 rush yards per game to keep the Dolphins offense under 12 points; game total leans under.
Miami Dolphins
  • Lean on the ground game averaging 104 rush yards to shorten possessions; Dolphins +3.5 receives value in a low total.
  • Force Cincinnati into third-and-long on the road where the Bengals are 1-1; 21.5 total caps Miami’s defensive exposure.
  • Convert red-zone trips above their current 33% mark; home underdog price inflates if they reach the end zone twice.
▾ 📋 Reports Time Report
No qualifying plays for this game.
1.30 H2H 4.00
1.96 (-7.5) SPREAD 1.95 (+7)
1.95 (U42) O/U 1.90 (O42.5)
📍 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL 📋 Matchcast
CIN 🏈
MIA 🏈
Scoring Plays
Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow
QB • Cincinnati Bengals
2-2
Balanced
PASSING YARDS
Averaging 292.8 against a 260.8 line — 50% Overs.
FORM
U U O O
Over last 2
Chase Brown
❄️ Chase Brown
RB • Cincinnati Bengals
1-3
Strong Under
RUSHING YARDS
Averaging 51.8 against a 58.6 line — 25% Overs.
FORM
U O U U
Under last 2
Tee Higgins
🔥 Tee Higgins
WR/TE • Cincinnati Bengals
3-1
Strong Over
RECEIVING YARDS
Averaging 100.3 against a 58.1 line — 75% Overs.
FORM
U O O O
Over last 3
NFL LOGIN S4
Las Vegas Raiders LV 0
vs
0 New England Patriots NE
0 plays
Oct 12 4:00 am · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA · Week: 5 · Proj 23–21 · Proj total 44
▾ 📊 Form & Match Preview Form · Preview
📊 Form Snapshot
Away
Las Vegas Raiders 38 STEADY · L1
(3-1) R 2-0 H 1-1
Avg For 28.8 · Avg Agt 21
Power #21 Off #18 Def #15 Run 27%
OFF 343y #15 · 250 pass / 93 rush
DEF 337y #19 · 203 pass / 135 rush
L5
SU
W
W
W
L
–
ATS
W
W
W
W
–
O/U
U
U
O
O
–
Score
27-13
26-14
35-27
27-30
–
Home
New England Patriots 94 WARM · W1
(2-2) R 1-2 H 1-0
Avg For 16.3 · Avg Agt 19.3
Power #3 Off #4 Def #6 Run 36%
OFF 332y #16 · 214 pass / 118 rush
DEF 294y #6 · 190 pass / 104 rush
L5
SU
L
W
L
W
–
ATS
P
W
L
W
–
O/U
U
U
U
O
–
Score
10-13
20-3
6-35
29-26
–
📊 Matchup▾
Las Vegas Raiders
Away
New England Patriots
Home
PTS FOR 28.8 8th 19.3 7th PTS AGT
PTS AGT 21.0 11th 16.3 30th PTS FOR
PASS OFF 250 9th 190 5th PASS DEF
RUSH OFF 93 24th 104 14th RUSH DEF
PASS DEF 203 8th 214 17th PASS OFF
RUSH DEF 135 27th 118 10th RUSH OFF
📈 Team Stats▾
53% · 21st
RED ZONE
44% · 28th
12 · 12th P11 R1
TDs
6 · 28th P4 R2
3.0 · 6th
SACKS
2.0 · 17th
2.3 · 1st
TAKEAWAYS
1.3 · 12th
14.0 / 9.0
1ST HALF
8.5 / 8.5
14.8 / 12.0
2ND HALF
7.8 / 10.8
78 plays · 31:28
PACE
73 plays · 30:50
30.1 · 2nd
KICK RET
24.8 · 23rd
13.6 · 3rd
PUNT RET
9.6 · 16th
50.4 · 6th
PUNT
48.3 · 17th
Matt Gay
10/10 · 100%
FG
Andy Borregales
5/7 · 71%
🏈 Players▾
Kirk Cousins QB
Passing vs a 5th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 21/30 160/3• W2 19/29 253/3• W3 22/33 248/3• W4 31/52 365/2
Season 23.3/36.0 257 yds
2.8 TD • 1.0 INT • 11 TDs
Drake Maye QB
Passing vs a 8th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 23/33 178/1• W2 14/22 208/0• W3 14/25 199/0• W4 22/37 269/3
Season 18.3/29.3 214 yds
1.0 TD • 1.8 INT • 4 TDs
Ashton Jeanty RB
Rushing vs a 14th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 23/102/0• W2 21/48/0• W3 19/56/0• W4 15/58/0
Season 19.5 car · 66 yds · 0.0 TD
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
Rushing vs a 27th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 18/51/0• W2 6/43/0• W3 7/22/0• W4 13/47/1
Season 11.0 car · 41 yds · 0.3 TD
Tre Tucker WR
Receiving vs a 5th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 4>2/27/0• W2 7>5/119/1• W3 4>4/43/0• W4 8>4/44/0
Season 3.8 rec · 58 yds · 0.3 TD
5.8 tgt · 1 TD
Mack Hollins WR
Receiving vs a 8th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 5>4/51/0• W2 2>2/18/0• W3 9>6/87/0• W4 4>3/53/0
Season 3.8 rec · 52 yds · 0.0 TD
5.0 tgt · 0 TD
🩹 Injuries▾
Las Vegas Raiders
Jackson Powers-Johnson Q
Trey Zuhn III Q
Jalen Nailor Q
Chase Roberts Q
+12
New England Patriots
Christian Barmore Q
Christian Gonzalez Q
Channing Canada Q
Mack Hollins Q
+20
✏️ Match Preview
New England enters at 2-2 with the home-field advantage at Gillette Stadium, where the defense has allowed 19.3 points per game and the team stands 1-0. The Patriots are on a W1 streak and sit second in the AFC East, giving them the form edge in a matchup against a road team. Their offense has been limited to 16.3 PPG, but the defensive structure and run game averaging 117.8 yards have kept games manageable. The -2.5 spread reflects the home script and the ability to keep the Raiders' 28.8 PPG attack in check through tempo control. The 22.5 total aligns with New England's lower-scoring identity and the defensive ranks on display. Multiple starters are questionable, yet the Patriots' home defensive identity has consistently produced close, lower-output results. The road splits for New England (1-2) are set aside here because the home environment changes the equation, allowing the defense to dictate early downs and force the Raiders into predictable situations. The combination of home record, defensive points allowed, and the low total creates a profile that favors the Patriots holding the spread in a game that stays under the posted number.
🔑 Keys to Success
Las Vegas Raiders
  • Use road success (2-0) to push tempo early; Raiders 28.8 PPG makes the 22.5 total look suppressed.
  • Attack New England secondary on early downs; +2.5 carries value against a 16.3 PPG home offense.
  • Convert red zone at 53.33 percent; forces the game total to play above the posted line.
  • Force Seattle into 2nd-and-long; Titans team total 24.5 is a home-shaped number.
New England Patriots
  • Lean on Gillette defensive structure allowing 19.3 PPG; keeps the -2.5 live in low-output script.
  • Control run game at 117.8 yards to set up manageable third downs; total 22.5 favors home tempo.
  • Limit explosive plays from the 28.8 PPG Raiders attack; home record (1-0) supports spread lean.
  • Force Seattle into 2nd-and-long; Titans team total 24.5 is a home-shaped number.
▾ 📋 Reports Time Report
No qualifying plays for this game.
2.73 H2H 1.54
2.08 (+3) SPREAD 1.95 (-4.5)
1.95 (U44.5) O/U 1.97 (O45.5)
📍 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA 📋 Matchcast
LV 🏈
NE 🏈
Scoring Plays
Kirk Cousins
🔥 Kirk Cousins
QB • Las Vegas Raiders
3-1
Strong Over
PASSING YARDS
Averaging 256.5 against a 207.9 line — 75% Overs.
FORM
U O O O
Over last 3
Mike Washington Jr.
🔥 Mike Washington Jr.
RB • Las Vegas Raiders
3-1
Strong Over
RUSHING YARDS
Averaging 30 against a 20 line — 75% Overs.
FORM
O U O O
Over last 2
Tre Tucker
🔥 Tre Tucker
WR/TE • Las Vegas Raiders
3-1
Strong Over
RECEIVING YARDS
Averaging 58.3 against a 40 line — 75% Overs.
FORM
U O O O
Over last 3
Drake Maye
❄️ Drake Maye
QB • New England Patriots
1-3
Strong Under
PASSING YARDS
Averaging 213.5 against a 224.8 line — 25% Overs.
FORM
U U U O
Over last 1
Rhamondre Stevenson
❄️ Rhamondre Stevenson
RB • New England Patriots
1-3
Strong Under
RUSHING YARDS
Averaging 40.8 against a 44.1 line — 25% Overs.
FORM
U U U O
Over last 1
Romeo Doubs
🔥 Romeo Doubs
WR/TE • New England Patriots
3-1
Strong Over
RECEIVING YARDS
Averaging 50.8 against a 39.4 line — 75% Overs.
FORM
U O O O
Over last 3
NFL LOGIN S4
Minnesota Vikings MIN 0
vs
0 New Orleans Saints NO
0 plays
Oct 12 4:00 am · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA · Week: 5 · Proj 26–22 · Proj total 47
▾ 📊 Form & Match Preview Form · Preview
📊 Form Snapshot
Away
Minnesota Vikings 78 WARM · W4
(4-0) R 2-0 H 2-0
Avg For 21.5 · Avg Agt 12.8
Power #8 Off #30 Def #4 Run 41%
OFF 263y #31 · 156 pass / 107 rush
DEF 289y #5 · 195 pass / 95 rush
L5
SU
W
W
W
W
–
ATS
W
W
W
L
–
O/U
O
U
U
U
–
Score
39-22
9-3
23-16
15-10
–
Home
New Orleans Saints 3 COOL · L2
(1-3) R 1-1 H 0-2
Avg For 26.3 · Avg Agt 32
Power #32 Off #24 Def #19 Run 24%
OFF 367y #9 · 279 pass / 89 rush
DEF 360y #26 · 213 pass / 148 rush
L5
SU
L
W
L
L
–
ATS
W
W
L
L
–
O/U
O
U
O
O
–
Score
30-31
24-17
27-35
24-45
–
📊 Matchup▾
Minnesota Vikings
Away
New Orleans Saints
Home
PTS FOR 21.5 18th 32.0 32nd PTS AGT
PTS AGT 12.8 1st 26.3 10th PTS FOR
PASS OFF 156 32nd 213 15th PASS DEF
RUSH OFF 107 16th 148 30th RUSH DEF
PASS DEF 195 7th 279 4th PASS OFF
RUSH DEF 95 7th 89 27th RUSH OFF
📈 Team Stats▾
50% · 26th
RED ZONE
80% · 5th
6 · 30th P4 R2
TDs
13 · 9th P9 R4
4.0 · 1st
SACKS
2.0 · 21st
1.8 · 7th
TAKEAWAYS
0.8 · 25th
10.5 / 8.0
1ST HALF
6.5 / 15.3
11.0 / 4.8
2ND HALF
18.3 / 15.0
72 plays · 32:08
PACE
69 plays · 31:31
30.2 · 1st
KICK RET
23.7 · 27th
20.1 · 1st
PUNT RET
5.9 · 27th
44.6 · 29th
PUNT
45.4 · 27th
Will Reichard
12/12 · 100%
FG
Daniel Carlson
5/7 · 71%
🏈 Players▾
Carson Wentz QB
Passing vs a 15th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 12/19 133/3• W2 11/20 143/0• W3 DNP• W4 DNP
Season 11.5/19.5 138 yds
1.5 TD • 0.0 INT • 3 TDs
Tyler Shough QB
Passing vs a 7th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 35/56 410/3• W2 27/34 252/1• W3 29/42 250/4• W4 30/48 286/1
Season 30.3/45.0 300 yds
2.3 TD • 0.8 INT • 9 TDs
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
Rushing vs a 30th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 12/40/1• W2 23/105/0• W3 17/58/0• W4 20/94/0
Season 18.0 car · 74 yds · 0.3 TD
Alvin Kamara RB
Rushing vs a 7th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 DNP• W2 9/15/0• W3 9/36/0• W4 7/23/2
Season 8.3 car · 25 yds · 0.7 TD
Justin Jefferson WR
Receiving vs a 15th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 9>8/92/2• W2 6>3/55/0• W3 2>2/32/0• W4 DNP
Season 4.3 rec · 60 yds · 0.7 TD
5.7 tgt · 2 TD
Chris Olave WR
Receiving vs a 7th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 13>10/182/0• W2 10>8/86/1• W3 13>9/107/0• W4 12>8/116/0
Season 8.8 rec · 123 yds · 0.3 TD
12.0 tgt · 1 TD
🩹 Injuries▾
Minnesota Vikings
Donovan Jackson Sidelined
Christian Darrisaw Q
Justin Jefferson Q
Charles Demmings Q
+18
New Orleans Saints
Zach Wilson Sidelined
Christen Miller Sidelined
Decamerion Richardson Sidelined
Davon Godchaux Q
+24
✏️ Match Preview
Minnesota Vikings carry a 4-0 record and the league’s most efficient defense into the Superdome, allowing just 12.8 points per game while holding opponents to modest yardage on the ground and through the air. Their 2-0 road mark and 2-0 division record show they handle travel and divisional pressure without issue. The Vikings have won four straight, and their balanced offense—averaging 21.5 points while mixing 156 passing and 106.8 rushing yards—keeps defenses honest. New Orleans enters at 1-3 and has dropped its last two, surrendering 32 points per game and ranking poorly on that side of the ball. The 20.5 total and Minnesota -2.5 spread reflect the visitors’ defensive reputation and overall form. Because the Saints have been vulnerable at home, the Vikings’ ability to dictate pace on the road should keep the game inside the posted number while still covering the modest spread. Minnesota’s recent results indicate they win with defense first and controlled offense second, a script that travels well to any venue.
🔑 Keys to Success
Minnesota Vikings
  • Lean on the 12.8 points-per-game defense to force early downs; Vikings team total sits at a road-friendly number around 21.5.
  • Mix 106.8 rush yards with short passes to keep New Orleans’ 32-point defense on the field; total of 20.5 remains low for a dome.
  • Exploit New Orleans 0-2 home mark by controlling the clock; spread of -2.5 rewards the more disciplined road script.
New Orleans Saints
  • Use 278.5 passing yards to stretch Minnesota’s secondary early; over 20.5 total is a dome-shaped number.
  • Attack Minnesota’s 50% red-zone efficiency on third downs; Saints +2.5 is a home-underdog price with offensive upside.
  • Force Minnesota into obvious passing situations; New Orleans rush defense has held opponents under 90 yards in recent home losses.
▾ 📋 Reports Time Report
No qualifying plays for this game.
1.78 H2H 2.15
1.95 (-2) SPREAD 1.90 (+2.5)
1.95 (U40.5) O/U 1.95 (O42.5)
📍 Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA 📋 Matchcast
MIN 🏈
NO 🏈
Scoring Plays
Aaron Jones
🔥 Aaron Jones
RB • Minnesota Vikings
4-0
Strong Over
RUSHING YARDS
Averaging 74.3 against a 50.8 line — 100% Overs.
FORM
O O O O
Over last 4
T.J. Hockenson
T.J. Hockenson
WR/TE • Minnesota Vikings
2-2
Balanced
RECEIVING YARDS
Averaging 48.8 against a 30.8 line — 50% Overs.
FORM
O U U O
Over last 1
Tyler Shough
🔥 Tyler Shough
QB • New Orleans Saints
4-0
Strong Over
PASSING YARDS
Averaging 300.8 against a 246.3 line — 100% Overs.
FORM
O O O O
Over last 4
Chris Olave
🔥 Chris Olave
WR/TE • New Orleans Saints
4-0
Strong Over
RECEIVING YARDS
Averaging 122.8 against a 76.3 line — 100% Overs.
FORM
O O O O
Over last 4
NFL LOGIN S4
Cleveland Browns CLE 0
vs
0 New York Jets NYJ
0 plays
Oct 12 4:00 am · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ · Week: 5 · Proj 20–23 · Proj total 43
▾ 📊 Form & Match Preview Form · Preview
📊 Form Snapshot
Away
Cleveland Browns 16 WARM · W3
(3-1) R 1-1 H 2-0
Avg For 20.3 · Avg Agt 23.8
Power #28 Off #31 Def #9 Run 32%
OFF 293y #23 · 199 pass / 94 rush
DEF 349y #23 · 235 pass / 113 rush
L5
SU
L
W
W
W
–
ATS
L
W
W
W
–
O/U
O
O
U
O
–
Score
10-34
23-19
21-18
27-24
–
Home
New York Jets 53 COOL · L3
(1-3) R 1-2 H 0-1
Avg For 19 · Avg Agt 21
Power #16 Off #29 Def #30 Run 29%
OFF 286y #24 · 202 pass / 84 rush
DEF 317y #11 · 193 pass / 124 rush
L5
SU
W
L
L
L
–
ATS
W
W
L
L
–
O/U
U
U
O
U
–
Score
23-10
17-20
24-31
12-23
–
📊 Matchup▾
Cleveland Browns
Away
New York Jets
Home
PTS FOR 20.3 22nd 21.0 12th PTS AGT
PTS AGT 23.8 18th 19.0 24th PTS FOR
PASS OFF 199 21st 193 6th PASS DEF
RUSH OFF 94 23rd 124 25th RUSH DEF
PASS DEF 235 23rd 202 18th PASS OFF
RUSH DEF 113 18th 84 28th RUSH OFF
📈 Team Stats▾
50% · 24th
RED ZONE
55% · 18th
8 · 21st P6 R2
TDs
8 · 22nd P5 R3
3.0 · 5th
SACKS
2.3 · 15th
1.0 · 20th
TAKEAWAYS
1.0 · 19th
9.3 / 11.5
1ST HALF
6.8 / 8.3
11.0 / 12.3
2ND HALF
12.3 / 12.0
62 plays · 28:37
PACE
32 plays · 30:33
28.2 · 5th
KICK RET
24.8 · 24th
5.3 · 28th
PUNT RET
6.2 · 26th
51.4 · 3rd
PUNT
48.7 · 14th
Andre Szmyt
8/8 · 100%
FG
Jason Sanders
7/8 · 88%
🏈 Players▾
Deshaun Watson QB
Passing vs a 6th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 16/22 205/1• W2 24/30 238/2• W3 16/30 144/2• W4 24/33 268/1
Season 20.0/28.8 214 yds
1.5 TD • 0.5 INT • 6 TDs
Geno Smith QB
Passing vs a 23rd-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 19/24 215/0• W2 27/41 247/1• W3 31/37 321/3• W4 8/15 119/1
Season 21.3/29.3 226 yds
1.3 TD • 0.0 INT • 5 TDs
Quinshon Judkins RB
Rushing vs a 25th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 12/33/0• W2 12/21/0• W3 18/70/0• W4 17/53/1
Season 14.8 car · 44 yds · 0.3 TD
Breece Hall RB
Rushing vs a 18th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 22/102/1• W2 16/29/0• W3 13/32/0• W4 DNP
Season 17.0 car · 54 yds · 0.3 TD
Jerry Jeudy WR
Receiving vs a 6th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 4>2/26/0• W2 1>0/0/0• W3 DNP• W4 3>3/36/0
Season 1.7 rec · 21 yds · 0.0 TD
2.7 tgt · 0 TD
Garrett Wilson WR
Receiving vs a 23rd-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 7>6/79/0• W2 7>5/57/1• W3 13>10/107/1• W4 4>3/27/0
Season 6.0 rec · 68 yds · 0.5 TD
7.8 tgt · 2 TD
🩹 Injuries▾
Cleveland Browns
Nathaniel Watson Sidelined
Taylen Green Sidelined
Justin Jefferson Sidelined
Teven Jenkins Q
+19
New York Jets
Braiden McGregor Sidelined
Kingsley Enagbare Q
Breece Hall Q
Jarvis Brownlee Jr. Q
+23
✏️ Match Preview
The New York Jets sit at 1-3 and have dropped three straight, yet the market installs them as home favorites at -0.5 against a Cleveland side that enters at 3-1. The total is listed at 19.5, reflecting modest offensive outputs from both clubs. New York’s offense has averaged 19 points per game while its defense has allowed 21. The Jets own a 1-2 road record but will operate in front of their home crowd at MetLife Stadium, where the script can differ from road games. Cleveland’s 3-1 mark includes a three-game win streak and the top spot in the AFC North, but the Browns are only 1-1 away from home. Both teams list multiple starters as questionable, which could affect rhythm in a low-total environment. The Jets will attempt to stop their skid by leaning on their defense to keep Cleveland under its 20.3 points-per-game average. With the spread at just half a point, the home side is expected to control the game script enough to cover the narrow number in a contest that projects to remain under the total.
🔑 Keys to Success
Cleveland Browns
  • Control early downs to reach second-and-long; Browns offense at 20.3 PPG can keep the 19.5 total in play.
  • Exploit Jets secondary on third downs; Cleveland’s 50% red-zone rate targets the narrow spread.
  • Limit explosive plays on the road; 1-1 road record suggests Browns can stay inside the half-point number.
New York Jets
  • Force Cleveland into predictable passing situations; Jets defense allowing 21 PPG can push the total under 19.5.
  • Establish the run early to shorten drives; New York’s 84 rush yards per game fits the low-total script.
  • Lean on home-field execution in close game; 0-1 home record needs fixing against a 3-1 road opponent.
▾ 📋 Reports Time Report
No qualifying plays for this game.
2.20 H2H 1.80
1.92 (+2.5) SPREAD 1.94 (-2.5)
1.95 (U39.5) O/U 1.98 (O40.5)
📍 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ 📋 Matchcast
CLE 🏈
NYJ 🏈
Scoring Plays
Geno Smith
🔥 Geno Smith
QB • New York Jets
3-1
Strong Over
PASSING YARDS
Averaging 225.5 against a 215.1 line — 75% Overs.
FORM
O O O U
Under last 1
Garrett Wilson
Garrett Wilson
WR/TE • New York Jets
2-2
Balanced
RECEIVING YARDS
Averaging 67.5 against a 66.5 line — 50% Overs.
FORM
O U O U
Under last 1
NFL BOMBCARD S2
Indianapolis Colts IND 0
vs
0 Pittsburgh Steelers PIT
0 plays
Oct 12 4:00 am · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA · Week: 5 · Proj 23–25 · Proj total 47
▾ 📊 Form & Match Preview Form · Preview
📊 Form Snapshot
Away
Indianapolis Colts 63 WARM · W2
(2-2) R 1-1 H 1-1
Avg For 25.5 · Avg Agt 26
Power #13 Off #10 Def #22 Run 39%
OFF 284y #25 · 175 pass / 110 rush
DEF 392y #31 · 261 pass / 131 rush
L5
SU
L
L
W
W
–
ATS
L
W
W
W
–
O/U
O
O
U
U
–
Score
23-41
30-33
19-17
30-13
–
Home
Pittsburgh Steelers 22 STEADY · L1
(2-2) R 0-2 H 2-0
Avg For 19.3 · Avg Agt 21.8
Power #26 Off #25 Def #17 Run 30%
OFF 318y #17 · 223 pass / 95 rush
DEF 322y #13 · 210 pass / 113 rush
L5
SU
W
L
W
L
–
ATS
W
L
W
L
–
O/U
U
U
O
O
–
Score
20-13
3-20
30-27
24-27
–
📊 Matchup▾
Indianapolis Colts
Away
Pittsburgh Steelers
Home
PTS FOR 25.5 13th 21.8 14th PTS AGT
PTS AGT 26.0 22nd 19.3 23rd PTS FOR
PASS OFF 175 26th 210 12th PASS DEF
RUSH OFF 110 14th 113 17th RUSH DEF
PASS DEF 261 29th 223 16th PASS OFF
RUSH DEF 131 26th 95 22nd RUSH OFF
📈 Team Stats▾
75% · 6th
RED ZONE
44% · 29th
10 · 14th P3 R7
TDs
7 · 26th P7 R0
2.3 · 14th
SACKS
2.5 · 11th
0.5 · 30th
TAKEAWAYS
2.0 · 3rd
14.0 / 15.3
1ST HALF
10.8 / 13.8
10.8 / 9.3
2ND HALF
8.5 / 8.0
66 plays · 30:53
PACE
64 plays · 30:41
28.9 · 3rd
KICK RET
22.9 · 30th
12.5 · 6th
PUNT RET
9.9 · 14th
51.7 · 2nd
PUNT
49.4 · 9th
Spencer Shrader
11/11 · 100%
FG
Chris Boswell
7/10 · 70%
🏈 Players▾
Daniel Jones QB
Passing vs a 12th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 19/31 166/1• W2 22/31 210/1• W3 24/36 235/1• W4 19/34 143/0
Season 21.0/33.0 189 yds
0.8 TD • 1.0 INT • 3 TDs
Aaron Rodgers QB
Passing vs a 29th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 24/40 221/1• W2 23/39 187/0• W3 19/34 292/3• W4 22/40 299/3
Season 22.0/38.3 250 yds
1.8 TD • 1.0 INT • 7 TDs
Jonathan Taylor RB
Rushing vs a 17th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 19/98/2• W2 24/92/2• W3 23/68/0• W4 20/95/2
Season 21.5 car · 88 yds · 1.5 TD
Jaylen Warren RB
Rushing vs a 26th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 10/46/0• W2 11/43/0• W3 17/127/0• W4 17/93/0
Season 13.8 car · 77 yds · 0.0 TD
Josh Downs WR
Receiving vs a 12th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 4>2/37/0• W2 9>7/72/0• W3 11>5/77/0• W4 4>3/16/0
Season 4.3 rec · 51 yds · 0.0 TD
7.0 tgt · 0 TD
DK Metcalf WR
Receiving vs a 29th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 10>4/40/0• W2 9>4/27/0• W3 5>3/31/1• W4 9>5/115/0
Season 4.0 rec · 53 yds · 0.3 TD
8.3 tgt · 1 TD
🩹 Injuries▾
Indianapolis Colts
Arden Key Sidelined
Keenan Allen Q
Jack Wilson Q
Mike Hilton Q
+10
Pittsburgh Steelers
Max Hurleman Sidelined
Eli Heidenreich Sidelined
Gabriel Rubio Sidelined
Kevin Jobity Jr. Sidelined
+19
✏️ Match Preview
Pittsburgh sits at 2-2 after a Week 4 loss but remains unbeaten at Acrisure Stadium. The Steelers have held both home opponents to fewer than 22 points and enter as 1.5-point favorites with the total listed at 21.5. Their defense has been the steadying force, allowing 21.8 points per game overall while the offense has operated at a modest 19.3 points per contest. Indianapolis arrives on a two-game winning streak and ranks second in the AFC South, yet the Colts have alternated wins and losses on the road. Pittsburgh’s home-road split is stark: 2-0 inside the stadium, 0-2 away. The low total reflects the defensive tendencies both clubs have shown in home or road environments that match their current venue. Last week’s results left the Steelers on a short skid, but the home environment has produced cleaner scripts. With multiple starters listed as questionable on both sides, the game is expected to stay in the range the total suggests rather than opening into a track meet. Pittsburgh’s ability to lean on its home defense gives it the clearer path to controlling tempo and keeping the margin inside a narrow window.
🔑 Keys to Success
Indianapolis Colts
  • Sustain early drives to keep Pittsburgh’s defense on the field; Colts offense at 25.5 PPG against a total of 21.5.
  • Exploit Pittsburgh’s 0-2 road record; +1.5 remains a live number given the home-road defensive split.
  • Convert red-zone trips at the posted 75 percent rate; keeps the game script away from Steelers home strengths.
Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Lean on the 2-0 home defensive performance allowing under 22 points; Steelers -1.5 is venue-driven.
  • Force Indianapolis into longer second downs; aligns with the low total of 21.5 and Pittsburgh’s home script.
  • Control the run game inside the stadium; Steelers rush defense has limited opponents to 94.8 yards per game at home.
▾ 📋 Reports Time Report
No qualifying plays for this game.
2.25 H2H 1.77
1.95 (+2.5) SPREAD 2.02 (-3)
1.99 (U43.5) O/U 1.95 (O45)
📍 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA 📋 Matchcast
IND 🏈
PIT 🏈
Scoring Plays
Aaron Rodgers
🔥 Aaron Rodgers
QB • Pittsburgh Steelers
3-1
Strong Over
PASSING YARDS
Averaging 249.8 against a 214 line — 75% Overs.
FORM
O U O O
Over last 2
Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth
WR/TE • Pittsburgh Steelers
2-2
Balanced
RECEIVING YARDS
Averaging 31.3 against a 30 line — 50% Overs.
FORM
O O U U
Under last 2
NFL LOGIN S3
New York Giants NYG 0
vs
0 Washington Commanders WAS
0 plays
Oct 12 4:00 am · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD · Week: 5 · Proj 25–23 · Proj total 47
▾ 📊 Form & Match Preview Form · Preview
📊 Form Snapshot
Away
New York Giants 28 WARM · W2
(3-1) R 0-1 H 3-0
Avg For 20.5 · Avg Agt 19.8
Power #24 Off #14 Def #26 Run 39%
OFF 283y #26 · 173 pass / 111 rush
DEF 314y #9 · 205 pass / 109 rush
L5
SU
W
L
W
W
–
ATS
W
L
W
W
–
O/U
U
U
U
O
–
Score
28-20
6-28
12-7
36-24
–
Home
Washington Commanders 19 COOL · L1
(1-3) R 0-2 H 1-1
Avg For 22 · Avg Agt 30.5
Power #27 Off #16 Def #29 Run 39%
OFF 315y #19 · 191 pass / 124 rush
DEF 336y #18 · 243 pass / 94 rush
L5
SU
L
L
W
L
–
ATS
W
L
W
L
–
O/U
O
O
O
U
–
Score
22-24
20-37
33-31
13-30
–
📊 Matchup▾
New York Giants
Away
Washington Commanders
Home
PTS FOR 20.5 21st 30.5 30th PTS AGT
PTS AGT 19.8 8th 22.0 16th PTS FOR
PASS OFF 173 27th 243 25th PASS DEF
RUSH OFF 111 12th 94 6th RUSH DEF
PASS DEF 205 10th 191 23rd PASS OFF
RUSH DEF 109 16th 124 8th RUSH OFF
📈 Team Stats▾
55% · 19th
RED ZONE
55% · 20th
7 · 27th P6 R1
TDs
9 · 20th P8 R1
0.8 · 32nd
SACKS
1.8 · 25th
2.0 · 5th
TAKEAWAYS
1.3 · 16th
11.3 / 9.5
1ST HALF
10.5 / 12.8
9.3 / 10.3
2ND HALF
11.5 / 17.8
61 plays · 32:41
PACE
61 plays · 31:24
27.0 · 11th
KICK RET
26.9 · 12th
6.5 · 25th
PUNT RET
12.0 · 8th
50.6 · 5th
PUNT
47.2 · 23rd
Dominic Zvada
9/9 · 100%
FG
Drew Stevens
7/9 · 78%
🏈 Players▾
Jameis Winston QB
Passing vs a 25th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 DNP• W2 11/27 111/0• W3 14/22 118/0• W4 18/29 250/3
Season 14.3/26.0 160 yds
1.0 TD • 1.0 INT • 3 TDs
Marcus Mariota QB
Passing vs a 10th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 DNP• W2 11/16 111/1• W3 19/31 183/3• W4 3/4 46/0
Season 11.0/17.0 113 yds
1.3 TD • 0.0 INT • 4 TDs
Cam Skattebo RB
Rushing vs a 6th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 18/81/1• W2 12/36/0• W3 20/60/0• W4 18/58/0
Season 17.0 car · 59 yds · 0.3 TD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
Rushing vs a 16th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 16/63/1• W2 12/43/0• W3 19/36/0• W4 9/15/0
Season 14.0 car · 39 yds · 0.3 TD
Malik Nabers WR
Receiving vs a 25th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 9>6/69/0• W2 4>1/1/0• W3 6>5/26/0• W4 7>6/112/1
Season 4.5 rec · 52 yds · 0.3 TD
6.5 tgt · 1 TD
Terry McLaurin WR
Receiving vs a 10th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 4>2/14/0• W2 9>2/50/0• W3 9>6/77/1• W4 DNP
Season 3.3 rec · 47 yds · 0.3 TD
7.3 tgt · 1 TD
🩹 Injuries▾
New York Giants
Braxton Berrios Q
Jason Pinnock Q
Chauncey Golston Q
Ben Sauls Q
+13
Washington Commanders
Jaylin Lane Sidelined
Nick Cross Q
Jayden Daniels Q
Samuel Cosmi Q
+22
✏️ Match Preview
Washington Commanders are installed as 2.5-point favorites at home against the New York Giants in this NFC East Week 5 clash. The Commanders sit at 1-3 after a recent loss yet still project as the form side because of their 22 PPG offense and 124 rush yards per game at Northwest Stadium. Their red-zone efficiency sits at 54.55%, matching the Giants, but the home split gives them the slight edge in a low-scoring script. The total sits at just 21.5, reflecting both clubs’ modest outputs. With Jayden Daniels sidelined, Washington must lean harder on its ground attack to keep possessions long and limit the Giants’ opportunistic defense. The Commanders’ 190.8 passing yards per game remain a weapon if the run game draws defenders inside. Road teams in this building have historically faced condensed windows, and New York’s lone road loss this season fits that pattern. Expect Washington to try to win with field position and short-yardage efficiency rather than explosive plays. The short spread rewards the home side’s ability to control the clock and avoid the big defensive lapses that have defined its 30.5 PPG allowed average. A narrow margin in the 1-4 range feels realistic given the total constraints.
🔑 Keys to Success
New York Giants
  • Lean on 19.8 PPG allowed to keep possessions short; Giants team total under 21.5 total is road-friendly.
  • Exploit Washington’s 30.5 PPG defense with 110.5 rush yards per game; look for value on Giants +2.5.
  • Convert 54.55% red-zone rate into points before Commanders can lean on home field position.
Washington Commanders
  • Use 124 rush yards per game to control clock and stay under the 21.5 total at home.
  • Force New York into 3rd-and-long; Commanders home total sits live despite 30.5 PPG allowed on road.
  • Lean on 190.8 pass yards per game once run game draws linebackers inside against Giants secondary.
▾ 📋 Reports Time Report
No qualifying plays for this game.
2.62 H2H 1.59
2.02 (+3) SPREAD 1.98 (-3.5)
1.99 (U43.5) O/U 1.95 (O44)
📍 Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD 📋 Matchcast
NYG 🏈
WAS 🏈
Scoring Plays
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
❄️ Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB • Washington Commanders
1-3
Strong Under
RUSHING YARDS
Averaging 39.3 against a 47.8 line — 25% Overs.
FORM
O U U U
Under last 3
Stefon Diggs
❄️ Stefon Diggs
WR/TE • Washington Commanders
1-3
Strong Under
RECEIVING YARDS
Averaging 42.5 against a 45.8 line — 25% Overs.
FORM
O U U U
Under last 3
NFL LOGIN S3
Denver Broncos DEN 0
vs
0 Los Angeles Chargers LAC
0 plays
Oct 12 7:05 am · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA · Week: 5 · Proj 22–22 · Proj total 44
▾ 📊 Form & Match Preview Form · Preview
📊 Form Snapshot
Away
Denver Broncos 81 STEADY · L1
(2-2) R 0-2 H 2-0
Avg For 18.5 · Avg Agt 23.5
Power #7 Off #20 Def #5 Run 29%
OFF 280y #27 · 199 pass / 81 rush
DEF 375y #28 · 232 pass / 143 rush
L5
SU
L
W
W
L
–
ATS
L
W
W
L
–
O/U
U
U
O
U
–
Score
10-31
20-13
30-26
14-24
–
Home
Los Angeles Chargers 31 COOL · L4
(0-4) R 0-2 H 0-2
Avg For 16.8 · Avg Agt 26.5
Power #23 Off #26 Def #8 Run 40%
OFF 307y #21 · 185 pass / 122 rush
DEF 334y #16 · 212 pass / 122 rush
L5
SU
L
L
L
L
–
ATS
L
L
L
P
–
O/U
U
U
U
O
–
Score
14-26
14-26
16-24
23-30
–
📊 Matchup▾
Denver Broncos
Away
Los Angeles Chargers
Home
PTS FOR 18.5 27th 26.5 24th PTS AGT
PTS AGT 23.5 17th 16.8 29th PTS FOR
PASS OFF 199 20th 212 14th PASS DEF
RUSH OFF 81 29th 122 22nd RUSH DEF
PASS DEF 232 21st 185 24th PASS OFF
RUSH DEF 143 29th 122 9th RUSH OFF
📈 Team Stats▾
64% · 11th
RED ZONE
58% · 14th
7 · 24th P5 R2
TDs
7 · 25th P4 R3
2.0 · 16th
SACKS
2.5 · 10th
1.0 · 22nd
TAKEAWAYS
1.8 · 8th
3.3 / 10.8
1ST HALF
7.5 / 13.3
15.3 / 12.8
2ND HALF
9.3 / 13.3
64 plays · 28:30
PACE
68 plays · 29:17
27.6 · 7th
KICK RET
24.9 · 22nd
9.6 · 15th
PUNT RET
4.7 · 30th
49.7 · 8th
PUNT
48.1 · 19th
Wil Lutz
5/7 · 71%
FG
Cameron Dicker
6/8 · 75%
🏈 Players▾
Bo Nix QB
Passing vs a 14th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 17/28 131/1• W2 22/31 288/1• W3 17/34 186/2• W4 25/42 214/1
Season 20.3/33.8 205 yds
1.3 TD • 0.8 INT • 5 TDs
Justin Herbert QB
Passing vs a 21st-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 17/27 209/1• W2 15/27 192/1• W3 20/34 226/1• W4 19/31 189/1
Season 17.8/29.8 204 yds
1.0 TD • 1.5 INT • 4 TDs
J.K. Dobbins RB
Rushing vs a 22nd-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 8/36/0• W2 10/36/0• W3 17/49/0• W4 11/40/0
Season 11.5 car · 40 yds · 0.0 TD
Omarion Hampton RB
Rushing vs a 29th-ranked rush defence
Last 4
W1 12/43/1• W2 23/94/1• W3 15/56/0• W4 9/45/1
Season 14.8 car · 60 yds · 0.8 TD
Pat Bryant WR
Receiving vs a 14th-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 6>4/42/0• W2 1>0/0/0• W3 2>2/44/1• W4 3>3/47/0
Season 2.3 rec · 33 yds · 0.3 TD
3.0 tgt · 1 TD
Tre' Harris WR
Receiving vs a 21st-ranked pass defence
Last 4
W1 6>3/20/0• W2 3>1/53/0• W3 7>6/76/0• W4 5>3/60/0
Season 3.3 rec · 52 yds · 0.0 TD
5.3 tgt · 0 TD
🩹 Injuries▾
Denver Broncos
Patrick Surtain II Q
Dondrea Tillman Q
Pat Bryant Q
Riley Moss Q
+10
Los Angeles Chargers
Rashawn Slater Sidelined
Kayode Awosika Q
Trevor Penning Q
Charlie Kolar Q
+22
✏️ Match Preview
Denver enters SoFi Stadium as a 2.5-point favorite after opening the season 2-2. The Broncos sit at .500 following a recent loss and carry a 0-2 road mark into a divisional matchup against a last-place Chargers team. Their offense has averaged 18.5 points while the defense has given up 23.5, modest but functional figures against an opponent that has dropped four straight and allowed 26.5 points per game. The posted total of 21.5 frames a low-scoring environment that favors Denver’s balanced approach of 199 passing and 81.3 rushing yards per contest. Although the road splits are poor, the Broncos have shown enough red-zone finishing (63.64 percent) to stay within the narrow spread. The divisional setting adds extra weight to field position and turnover margin, areas where Denver’s recent form has kept games close. With multiple starters listed as questionable on both sides the preview leans on the clearer recent trajectory rather than season-long records. The market’s lean toward the visitor reflects Denver’s steadier production and the Chargers’ ongoing skid.
🔑 Keys to Success
Denver Broncos
  • Attack Los Angeles linebackers with intermediate crossers; Broncos 18.5 PPG fits inside a 21.5 total.
  • Keep Chargers in third-and-long; Denver defense has held opponents under season averages on the road.