Match by Match
NE
0
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BUF
BUF
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📊 Form & Match Preview
Form · Preview
📊 Form Snapshot
Away
New England Patriots
WARM · W1
(2-2)
R 1-2
H 1-0
Avg For 16.3 · Avg Agt 19.3
Power #3
Off #4
Def #6
Run 36%
OFF
332y #16
· 214 pass / 118 rush
DEF
294y #6
· 190 pass / 104 rush
L5
SU
L
W
L
W
–
ATS
P
W
L
W
–
O/U
U
U
U
O
–
Score
10-13
20-3
6-35
29-26
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Home
Buffalo Bills
WARM · L1
(3-1)
R 1-0
H 2-1
Avg For 31.8 · Avg Agt 26.8
Power #4
Off #2
Def #11
Run 36%
OFF
386y #8
· 247 pass / 139 rush
DEF
372y #27
· 256 pass / 116 rush
L5
SU
W
W
W
L
–
ATS
W
W
W
L
–
O/U
O
O
U
O
–
Score
36-31
41-31
24-16
26-29
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✏️ Match Preview
Buffalo arrives in Week 4 at 3-0 with a three-game winning streak and the AFC East lead. The Bills have scored 33.7 points per game while rushing for 155 yards per contest, and they remain undefeated at Highmark Stadium this season. New England enters at 1-2 after dropping its most recent outing and has managed just 12 points per game on offense. The posted total of 24.5 reflects the low-scoring profile both defenses have produced, yet Buffalo’s offensive volume gives it the clearer path to controlling the game at home. The spread lists the Bills as 6.5-point favorites in this divisional matchup. Multiple starters on both sides are questionable, but Buffalo’s recent form and home environment provide the stronger foundation. The Bills have outscored opponents consistently in their first three games, and their ability to sustain drives should keep New England’s offense on the sideline for long stretches. Even with the low total posted, Buffalo’s ground game creates favorable down-and-distance situations that limit opponent possessions.
🔑 Keys to Success
New England Patriots
- Lean on run defense to create 2nd-and-long; 24.5 total favors condensed scripts.
- Control clock with ground game; keeps Buffalo offense off field in divisional spot.
- Exploit Buffalo secondary injuries; limits explosive plays that push total over.
Buffalo Bills
- Establish run early; 155 rush YPG creates favorable game script at home.
- Force Patriots into predictable passing downs; 6.5 spread reflects home form edge.
- Sustain drives to limit New England possessions; aligns with low total band.
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📋 Reports
Time Report
No reports yet.
Interval reports land during the game — end of the 1st quarter, halftime, and end of the 3rd. Each one covers how the match is playing and the lean on the opening number versus the live number.
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⚡
Report
Pace
| Market | Lean | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Market | Line | Result |
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All Markets — 1 play(s)
Units Risked — 1u
· Settled 0-0-1
| Play / Side | Market | Bookmaker | Line | Odds | True% | Edge% | Tier | Units | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BUF ML
|
Head to Head | betfair_ex_au | — | 1.34 | 63.1% | -11.5% | T1 | 1u | P |
3.85
H2H
1.34
2.01 (+6.5)
SPREAD
2.00 (-7.5)
1.95 (U48)
O/U
1.93 (O49)
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NE
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BUF
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Scoring Plays
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Play by Play
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New England Patriots Passing
New England Patriots Rushing
New England Patriots Receiving
New England Patriots Fumbles
New England Patriots Defense
New England Patriots Interceptions
New England Patriots Kick Returns
New England Patriots Punt Returns
New England Patriots Kicking
New England Patriots Punting
Buffalo Bills Passing
Buffalo Bills Rushing
Buffalo Bills Receiving
Buffalo Bills Fumbles
Buffalo Bills Defense
Buffalo Bills Interceptions
Buffalo Bills Kick Returns
Buffalo Bills Punt Returns
Buffalo Bills Kicking
Buffalo Bills Punting
