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New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Week 4 Form & Preview
Oct 5 4:00 am
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park
- MARKET ODDS
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- SNAPSHOT
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- MATCH PREVIEW
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- MATCHUP
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- PLAYER PROPS
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- TEAM
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- PLAYER
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- INJURIES
MARKET ODDS
1.93 (U48.5)
OVER/UNDER
(O48.5) 1.87
Form Snapshot · 2026 season
📊 Form & Match Preview ▼
New England Patriots
Record (2-2)
Power #3 | Off #4 | Def #6 | ATS 2-1 (66.7%)
63
Warm
Momentum
Warm
Form
Warm
Streak
W1
Avg Pts For
16.3
Avg Pts Agt
19.3
FORM L6
Last 6 Games
Opponent
H2H Result
L
W
L
W
Spread
P (+3)
W (-5)
L (+3)
W (+6.5)
O / U
U
U
U
O
Score
10-13
20-3
6-35
29-26
Buffalo Bills
Record (3-1)
Power #4 | Off #2 | Def #11 | ATS 3-1 (75%)
57
Warm
Momentum
Warm
Form
Warm
Streak
L1
Avg Pts For
31.8
Avg Pts Agt
26.8
FORM L6
Last 6 Games
Opponent
H2H Result
W
W
W
L
Spread
W (-1)
W (-5.5)
W (-7)
L (-6.5)
O / U
O
O
U
O
Score
36-31
41-31
24-16
26-29
Match Preview
🏈 Match Preview ▼
Buffalo arrives in Week 4 at 3-0 with a three-game winning streak and the AFC East lead. The Bills have scored 33.7 points per game while rushing for 155 yards per contest, and they remain undefeated at Highmark Stadium this season. New England enters at 1-2 after dropping its most recent outing and has managed just 12 points per game on offense. The posted total of 24.5 reflects the low-scoring profile both defenses have produced, yet Buffalo’s offensive volume gives it the clearer path to controlling the game at home. The spread lists the Bills as 6.5-point favorites in this divisional matchup. Multiple starters on both sides are questionable, but Buffalo’s recent form and home environment provide the stronger foundation. The Bills have outscored opponents consistently in their first three games, and their ability to sustain drives should keep New England’s offense on the sideline for long stretches. Even with the low total posted, Buffalo’s ground game creates favorable down-and-distance situations that limit opponent possessions.
Keys to the Matchup
New England Patriots
- Lean on run defense to create 2nd-and-long; 24.5 total favors condensed scripts.
- Control clock with ground game; keeps Buffalo offense off field in divisional spot.
- Exploit Buffalo secondary injuries; limits explosive plays that push total over.
Buffalo Bills
- Establish run early; 155 rush YPG creates favorable game script at home.
- Force Patriots into predictable passing downs; 6.5 spread reflects home form edge.
- Sustain drives to limit New England possessions; aligns with low total band.
Player Props
New England Patriots
🔥 Romeo Doubs
WR/TE · Patriots
Strong Over
RECEIVING YARDS
3-1 Overs (75%) · Over last 3
Averaging 50.8 against a 39.4 line — 75% Overs.
FORM
GAME PLAYED: 4
U
O
O
O
🔥 Mack Hollins
WR/TE · Patriots
Strong Over
RECEIVING YARDS
3-1 Overs (75%) · Over last 2
Averaging 52.3 against a 30.3 line — 75% Overs.
FORM
GAME PLAYED: 4
O
U
O
O
❄️ Rhamondre Stevenson
RB · Patriots
Strong Under
RUSHING YARDS
1-3 Overs (25%) · Over last 1
Averaging 40.8 against a 44.1 line — 25% Overs.
FORM
GAME PLAYED: 4
U
U
U
O
❄️ Drake Maye
QB · Patriots
Strong Under
PASSING YARDS
1-3 Overs (25%) · Over last 1
Averaging 213.5 against a 224.8 line — 25% Overs.
FORM
GAME PLAYED: 4
U
U
U
O
❄️ DeMario Douglas
WR/TE · Patriots
Strong Under
RECEIVING YARDS
1-3 Overs (25%) · Under last 1
Averaging 20.5 against a 28.6 line — 25% Overs.
FORM
GAME PLAYED: 4
U
U
O
U
Hunter Henry
WR/TE · Patriots
Balanced
RECEIVING YARDS
2-2 Overs (50%) · Over last 1
Averaging 33.3 against a 36 line — 50% Overs.
FORM
GAME PLAYED: 4
U
O
U
O
❄️ Efton Chism III
Skill · Patriots
Strong Under
ANYTIME TD
1-3 Overs (25%) · Over last 1
Found the end zone in 1 of 4 games this season.
FORM
GAME PLAYED: 4
U
U
U
O
Buffalo Bills
James Cook
RB · Bills
Balanced
RUSHING YARDS
2-2 Overs (50%) · Under last 1
Averaging 105.3 against a 80.5 line — 50% Overs.
FORM
GAME PLAYED: 4
U
O
O
U
Josh Allen
QB · Bills
Balanced
PASSING YARDS
2-2 Overs (50%) · Over last 1
Averaging 259.8 against a 239.1 line — 50% Overs.
FORM
GAME PLAYED: 4
O
U
U
O
DJ Moore
WR/TE · Bills
Balanced
RECEIVING YARDS
2-2 Overs (50%) · Under last 1
Averaging 44.5 against a 53.1 line — 50% Overs.
FORM
GAME PLAYED: 4
O
U
O
U
Team Performance
OFFENSE
AVG PTS FOR
16.3 - 30th
PASSING YARDS
213.8 - 17th
RUSHING YARDS
117.8 - 10th
PENALTIES (Penalties - Yards)
7 - 46 - 27th
REDZONE (Converted TDs - Attempts)
1-2.3 - 44.44% - 28th
TDs - RUSH
2 - 25th
TDs - REC
4 - 25th
TDs - TOT
6 - 28th
TDs - AVG
1.5 - 28th
DEFENSE
PTS AGT AVG
19.3 - 7th
PASSING YARDS ALLOWED
189.8 - 5th
RUSHING YARDS ALLOWED
104 - 14th
SACKS
2 - 17th
INTERCEPTIONS
0.8 - 17th
OFFENSE
AVG PTS FOR
31.8 - 1st
PASSING YARDS
247.3 - 12th
RUSHING YARDS
139 - 5th
PENALTIES (Penalties - Yards)
7.5 - 62.5 - 16th
REDZONE (Converted TDs - Attempts)
2.8-4 - 68.75% - 9th
TDs - RUSH
10 - 1st
TDs - REC
6 - 16th
TDs - TOT
16 - 1st
TDs - AVG
4 - 1st
DEFENSE
PTS AGT AVG
26.8 - 25th
PASSING YARDS ALLOWED
256.3 - 27th
RUSHING YARDS ALLOWED
116 - 19th
SACKS
2.5 - 8th
INTERCEPTIONS
0.5 - 22nd
Player Performance
Injuries
New England Patriots
Christian Barmore
Date: Oct/05/2026
Status: Questionable
Shoulder - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Las Vegas
Christian Gonzalez
Date: Oct/05/2026
Status: Questionable
Shoulder - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Las Vegas
Channing Canada
Date: Oct/05/2026
Status: Questionable
Hamstring - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Las Vegas
Mack Hollins
Date: Oct/04/2026
Status: Questionable
Calf - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Las Vegas
Eli Raridon
Date: Oct/04/2026
Status: Questionable
Ankle - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Las Vegas
Charles Woods
Date: Oct/04/2026
Status: Questionable
Shoulder - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Las Vegas
Marcus Bryant
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: I.L.
I.L. - Ankle
Eric Butler
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: Questionable
Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Las Vegas
Jimmy Kibble
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: Questionable
Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Las Vegas
Harold Landry III
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: PUP
Undisclosed - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
Jeremiah Webb
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: I.L.
I.L. - Arm
Greg Van Roten
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: I.L.
I.L. - Thigh
Andrew Rupcich
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: Questionable
Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Las Vegas
Shane Zylstra
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: Questionable
Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Las Vegas
Myles Montgomery
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: I.L.
I.L. - Undisclosed
Khalil Jacobs
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: I.L.
I.L. - Undisclosed
Quintayvious Hutchins
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: I.L.
I.L. - Knee
Bryce Baringer
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: I.L.
I.L. - Undisclosed
Mike Onwenu
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: I.L.
I.L. - Ankle
Brenden Schooler
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: NFI
Back - NFI-R for Week 5 vs. Las Vegas
A.J. Brown
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: I.L.
I.L. - Ankle
Isaiah Iton
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: Questionable
Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 vs. Las Vegas
Dell Pettus
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: I.L.
I.L. - Ankle
Julian Hill
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: I.L.
I.L. - Knee
Buffalo Bills
Christian Benford
Date: Oct/05/2026
Status: Questionable
Toe - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
T.J. Sanders
Date: Oct/05/2026
Status: Questionable
Appendix - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
DJ Moore
Date: Oct/04/2026
Status: Questionable
Shoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
Dee Alford
Date: Oct/04/2026
Status: Questionable
Ankle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
Ed Oliver
Date: Oct/04/2026
Status: Questionable
Knee - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
Dorian Strong
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: NFI
Neck - NFI-R for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
Jordan Poyer
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: Questionable
Hamstring - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
Grant DuBose
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: Questionable
Shoulder - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
Zane Durant
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: I.L.
I.L. - Undisclosed
Jordan Phillips
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: Questionable
Ankle - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
Jordan Hancock
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: I.L.
I.L. - Hamstring
Jalen Virgil
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: Questionable
Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
Tyrell Shavers
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: PUP
Knee - ACL - Physically Unable to Perform. Expected Return - Week 5
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
Date: Oct/02/2026
Status: Questionable
Undisclosed - Questionable for Week 5 at L.A. Rams
