Dallas Cowboys
- 2025 NFL Team Betting Analysis

Rank #24 · Record 7-9 · ATS 7-10 (41.2%)

← Season
33
Momentum
23.3 form + 9.3 margin L6: 33% wins · -7.7 pts/g
Cold form
Streak
L1
L6 pt diff
-46
L6 ATS
1-5
L L W W W L L L L L

Last 3

3 gm
SU
1-2
ATS
0-3 · 0%
O/U
2-1 · 66.7%
Pt diff
-27 (-9/g)

Last 6

6 gm
SU
2-4
ATS
1-5 · 16.7%
O/U
5-1 · 83.3%
Pt diff
-46 (-7.7/g)

Season

17 gm
SU
7-10
ATS
7-10 · 41.2%
O/U
11-6 · 64.7%
Pt diff
-40 (-2.4/g)

Market splits

This season, coloured vs the 52.4% break-even.

Full spread
7-10
41.2%
Total (over)
11-6
64.7%
As favourite
2-8
20.0%
Home ATS
4-4
50.0%
Away ATS
3-6
33.3%
1H ATS
8-9
47.1%
1Q ATS
5-12
29.4%

Last season vs now

Baseline profile compared to the current season.

No 2024 baseline imported yet, so there's no prior-season profile to compare. Baselines are built with php artisan nfl:build-baselines 2024.

Key players

Top producer per category (season per-game average).

Passer

Dak Prescott Cowboys

Dak Prescott

267.8 yds/g · 30 TD · 17 gm

Rusher

Javonte Williams Cowboys

Javonte Williams

75.1 yds/g · 11 TD · 16 gm

Receiver

George Pickens Cowboys

George Pickens

84.1 yds/g · 9 TD · 17 gm

Notable prop trends

Biggest Over/Under leans vs the posted line (min 5 games).

Jake Ferguson Cowboys
Jake Ferguson
Receiving yds · avg 35.29 vs line 39.09
5-12
29% Unders
Javonte Williams Cowboys
Javonte Williams
Rushing yds · avg 75.06 vs line 64.63
11-5
69% Overs
George Pickens Cowboys
George Pickens
Receiving yds · avg 84.06 vs line 66.56
11-6
65% Overs
KaVontae Turpin Cowboys
KaVontae Turpin
Receiving yds · avg 28.43 vs line 16.11
9-5
64% Overs
Javonte Williams Cowboys
Javonte Williams
Receiving yds · avg 16.94 vs line 12.72
6-10
38% Unders
George Pickens Cowboys
George Pickens
Receptions · avg 5.75 vs line 4.69
10-6
63% Overs

Season story

The Cowboys have gone ice cold from a betting standpoint, posting an 0-5 ATS mark over their last five games while the total cleared in four of those contests. That skid has dragged their last-10 record to 3-7 ATS, though the over has still landed in six of those ten outings. For the full season Dallas sits at 7-10 ATS and a robust 11-6 on the over, a totals lean that stands well above the league’s near-even split. They covered just two of ten spreads as favorites and managed only three wins in seven underdog spots. Home ATS performance was even at 4-4, but on the road they managed just 3-6. First-quarter and first-half trends reveal consistent slow starts, with the team leading after the opening quarter in only three of 17 games and at halftime in seven. Those numbers point to a side that rarely builds early cushions and often plays from behind. The clearest standout result came in Week 7 when Dallas covered a 23.5-point margin as a 1.5-point home underdog against Washington, winning 44-22. Other notable covers arrived in Week 5 as a road favorite and Week 13 as a home underdog, but those were outliers in an otherwise inconsistent ATS profile. The clearest betting angle right now centers on the over, given the 11-6 season mark and the recent four-of-five rate, while the team’s 2-8 record ATS as favorites suggests fading Dallas whenever it is installed on the minus side of the number.

Game log

Wk Match Score Spread Cover ATS O/U 1H Mgn
1
Eagles Eagles vs Cowboys Cowboys
24 - 20 +8.5 4.5 W U -1
2
Giants Giants @ Cowboys Cowboys
37 - 40 -5 -2 L O -3
3
Bears Bears vs Cowboys Cowboys
31 - 14 -1 -18 L U -10
4
Packers Packers @ Cowboys Cowboys
40 - 40 +6.5 6.5 W O +3
5
Jets Jets vs Cowboys Cowboys
22 - 37 -2.5 12.5 W O +20
6
Panthers Panthers vs Cowboys Cowboys
30 - 27 -3 -6 L O +4
7
Commanders Commanders @ Cowboys Cowboys
22 - 44 +1.5 23.5 W O +12
8
Broncos Broncos vs Cowboys Cowboys
44 - 24 +3.5 -16.5 L O -17
9
Cardinals Cardinals @ Cowboys Cowboys
27 - 17 -2.5 -12.5 L U -10
11
Raiders Raiders vs Cowboys Cowboys
16 - 33 -3.5 13.5 W U +15
12
Eagles Eagles @ Cowboys Cowboys
21 - 24 +3.5 6.5 W U -14
13
Chiefs Chiefs @ Cowboys Cowboys
28 - 31 +3.5 6.5 W O +3
14
Lions Lions vs Cowboys Cowboys
44 - 30 +3 -11 L O -11
15
Vikings Vikings @ Cowboys Cowboys
34 - 26 -5.5 -13.5 L O +0
16
Chargers Chargers @ Cowboys Cowboys
34 - 17 -2 -19 L O -4
17
Commanders Commanders vs Cowboys Cowboys
23 - 30 -9 -2 L O +14
18
Giants Giants vs Cowboys Cowboys
34 - 17 -3.5 -20.5 L U -6