Detroit Lions
- 2025 NFL Team Betting Analysis

Rank #20 · Record 9-8 · ATS 8-9 (47.1%)

← Season
36
Momentum
23.3 form + 13.1 margin L6: 33% wins · -2.5 pts/g
Cold form
Streak
W1
L6 pt diff
-15
L6 ATS
2-4
L W L L L W L L L W

Last 3

3 gm
SU
1-2
ATS
1-2 · 33.3%
O/U
1-2 · 33.3%
Pt diff
-15 (-5/g)

Last 6

6 gm
SU
2-4
ATS
2-4 · 33.3%
O/U
4-2 · 66.7%
Pt diff
-15 (-2.5/g)

Season

17 gm
SU
9-8
ATS
8-9 · 47.1%
O/U
10-7 · 58.8%
Pt diff
+68 (4/g)

Market splits

This season, coloured vs the 52.4% break-even.

Full spread
8-9
47.1%
Total (over)
10-7
58.8%
As favourite
6-5
54.5%
Home ATS
4-4
50.0%
Away ATS
4-5
44.4%
1H ATS
9-8
52.9%
1Q ATS
8-9
47.1%

Last season vs now

Baseline profile compared to the current season.

No 2024 baseline imported yet, so there's no prior-season profile to compare. Baselines are built with php artisan nfl:build-baselines 2024.

Key players

Top producer per category (season per-game average).

Passer

Jared Goff Lions

Jared Goff

268.5 yds/g · 34 TD · 17 gm

Rusher

Jahmyr Gibbs Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs

71.9 yds/g · 13 TD · 17 gm

Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown

82.4 yds/g · 11 TD · 17 gm

Notable prop trends

Biggest Over/Under leans vs the posted line (min 5 games).

Jameson Williams Lions
Jameson Williams
Rushing yds · avg 50.5 vs line 0.5
8-0
100% Overs
Jared Goff Lions
Jared Goff
Passing yds · avg 268.47 vs line 249.94
11-6
65% Overs
Jahmyr Gibbs Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs
Receptions · avg 4.53 vs line 4.06
6-10
38% Unders
Sam LaPorta Lions
Sam LaPorta
Receiving yds · avg 54.33 vs line 43.61
6-3
67% Overs
Jahmyr Gibbs Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs
Receiving yds · avg 36.24 vs line 29.44
10-7
59% Overs
Amon-Ra St. Brown Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Receiving yds · avg 82.41 vs line 74.53
10-7
59% Overs

Season story

Detroit’s recent form has turned sharply negative from a betting standpoint. Over their last 10 games the Lions went just 3-7 ATS while the totals ran over in seven of those contests. The last five showed a modest ATS split of 2-3 but continued to produce overs at a 3-2 clip, indicating the offense still generates enough points even when the spread result slips away.

For the full 2025 season Detroit finished 9-8 straight up yet posted a disappointing 8-9 ATS record. As favorites in 11 games they covered six times, while their six underdog starts yielded only two ATS wins. Home and road results were nearly identical, with a 4-4 mark at home and 4-5 away. The over cleared in 10 of 17 games, comfortably above the league average.

First-half tendencies were middling. The Lions led at halftime in eight games and after the first quarter in six, suggesting they rarely built large early cushions. When they did lead after one quarter they often protected or extended those margins, but slow starts in the other 11 contests left them chasing.

Standout results centered on a pair of dominant home wins. The largest cover came in Week 2 against Chicago, a 31-point victory that easily cleared a six-point spread. A 22-point road win in Week 10 against Washington also produced a solid cover. Conversely, several late-season losses as favorites, including three straight ATS defeats in Weeks 12-13 and 16, exposed vulnerability when expected to control games.

The clearest betting angle heading forward is continued lean toward the over. Detroit’s games cleared the total 58.8 percent of the time and the last-10 over rate remained elevated. Against the spread, however, the Lions have cooled; backing them as anything more than small favorites carries risk until the recent cold streak reverses.

Game log

Wk Match Score Spread Cover ATS O/U 1H Mgn
1
Packers Packers vs Lions Lions
27 - 13 +2.5 -11.5 L U -14
2
Bears Bears @ Lions Lions
21 - 52 -6 25 W O +14
3
Ravens Ravens vs Lions Lions
30 - 38 +5 13 W O +0
4
Browns Browns @ Lions Lions
10 - 34 -10 14 W U +13
5
Bengals Bengals vs Lions Lions
24 - 37 -10.5 2.5 W O +11
6
Chiefs Chiefs vs Lions Lions
30 - 17 +2.5 -10.5 L U -3
7
Buccaneers Buccaneers @ Lions Lions
9 - 24 -5.5 9.5 W U +11
9
Vikings Vikings @ Lions Lions
27 - 24 -8.5 -11.5 L O -3
10
Commanders Commanders vs Lions Lions
22 - 44 -8 14 W O +15
11
Eagles Eagles vs Lions Lions
16 - 9 +2.5 -4.5 L U -7
12
Giants Giants @ Lions Lions
27 - 34 -10.5 -3.5 L O -3
13
Packers Packers @ Lions Lions
31 - 24 -3 -10 L O -3
14
Cowboys Cowboys @ Lions Lions
30 - 44 -3 11 W O +11
15
Rams Rams vs Lions Lions
41 - 34 +6 -1 L O +7
16
Steelers Steelers @ Lions Lions
29 - 24 -7 -12 L O +0
17
Vikings Vikings vs Lions Lions
23 - 10 -7.5 -20.5 L U +0
18
Bears Bears vs Lions Lions
16 - 19 +3 6 W U +13