Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 2025 NFL Team Betting Analysis

Rank #30 · Record 8-9 · ATS 6-11 (35.3%)

← Season
38
Momentum
23.3 form + 14.3 margin L6: 33% wins · -1 pts/g
Cold form
Streak
W1
L6 pt diff
-6
L6 ATS
1-5
W L L L W L L L L L

Last 3

3 gm
SU
1-2
ATS
0-3 · 0%
O/U
0-3 · 0%
Pt diff
-4 (-1.3/g)

Last 6

6 gm
SU
2-4
ATS
1-5 · 16.7%
O/U
2-4 · 33.3%
Pt diff
-6 (-1/g)

Season

17 gm
SU
8-9
ATS
6-11 · 35.3%
O/U
8-9 · 47.1%
Pt diff
-31 (-1.8/g)

Market splits

This season, coloured vs the 52.4% break-even.

Full spread
6-11
35.3%
Total (over)
8-9
47.1%
As favourite
4-7
36.4%
Home ATS
2-6
25.0%
Away ATS
4-5
44.4%
1H ATS
8-9
47.1%
1Q ATS
5-12
29.4%

Last season vs now

Baseline profile compared to the current season.

No 2024 baseline imported yet, so there's no prior-season profile to compare. Baselines are built with php artisan nfl:build-baselines 2024.

Key players

Top producer per category (season per-game average).

Passer

Baker Mayfield Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield

217.2 yds/g · 26 TD · 17 gm

Rusher

Bucky Irving Buccaneers

Bucky Irving

58.8 yds/g · 1 TD · 10 gm

Receiver

Emeka Egbuka Buccaneers

Emeka Egbuka

55.2 yds/g · 6 TD · 17 gm

Notable prop trends

Biggest Over/Under leans vs the posted line (min 5 games).

Emeka Egbuka Buccaneers
Emeka Egbuka
Receptions · avg 3.71 vs line 4.5
5-12
29% Unders
Mike Evans Buccaneers
Mike Evans
Receiving yds · avg 46 vs line 60.94
1-7
13% Unders
Rachaad White Buccaneers
Rachaad White
Receiving yds · avg 12.82 vs line 13.59
6-11
35% Unders
Baker Mayfield Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield
Passing yds · avg 217.24 vs line 230.44
6-11
35% Unders
Sterling Shepard Buccaneers
Sterling Shepard
Receiving yds · avg 26.5 vs line 22.18
5-9
36% Unders
Mike Evans Buccaneers
Mike Evans
Receptions · avg 3.75 vs line 4.75
2-6
25% Unders

Season story

The Buccaneers close the 2025 season on a severe cold streak, going 0-5 ATS across their final five games and 2-8 ATS over the last 10. That run featured five straight covers failing, with the totals flipping to three unders in those contests after an earlier mix of overs. For the full year Tampa Bay finished 8-9 straight up but a dismal 6-11 ATS, covering just 4 of 11 games as favorites while securing only 2 wins in 6 tries as underdogs. Home performance dragged the record down at 2-6 ATS, while the road mark sat at 4-5. The over landed in 8 of 17 games, slightly below the league average. First-quarter and first-half trends reveal consistent slow starts, with the team leading after Q1 in only 5 contests (29.4 percent) and at halftime in 8 (47.1 percent). This pattern often left them chasing, especially in losses where early deficits ballooned. The clearest standout ATS result arrived in Week 8 when Tampa Bay dismantled the Saints 23-3 as 4-point favorites, covering by 16 points in the season’s most lopsided win. Other notable outcomes include a pair of high-scoring home wins that pushed totals over before the late-season fade set in. Overall, the Buccaneers present limited betting value, particularly at home where both ATS and totals results have been unreliable. Bettors should continue to treat them as a team prone to slow starts and late fade, with the recent 0-5 ATS stretch underscoring the need for caution until clearer positive momentum returns.

Game log

Wk Match Score Spread Cover ATS O/U 1H Mgn
1
Falcons Falcons vs Buccaneers Buccaneers
20 - 23 -2 1 W U +0
2
Texans Texans vs Buccaneers Buccaneers
19 - 20 +2.5 3.5 W U +4
3
Jets Jets @ Buccaneers Buccaneers
27 - 29 -6.5 -4.5 L O +14
4
Eagles Eagles @ Buccaneers Buccaneers
31 - 25 +3.5 -2.5 L O -18
5
Seahawks Seahawks vs Buccaneers Buccaneers
35 - 38 +3.5 6.5 W O +6
6
49ers 49ers @ Buccaneers Buccaneers
19 - 30 -3 8 W O +4
7
Lions Lions vs Buccaneers Buccaneers
24 - 9 +5.5 -9.5 L U -11
8
Saints Saints vs Buccaneers Buccaneers
3 - 23 -4 16 W U +4
10
Patriots Patriots @ Buccaneers Buccaneers
28 - 23 -2.5 -7.5 L O -4
11
Bills Bills vs Buccaneers Buccaneers
44 - 32 +5.5 -6.5 L O -1
12
Rams Rams vs Buccaneers Buccaneers
34 - 7 +6.5 -20.5 L U -24
13
Cardinals Cardinals @ Buccaneers Buccaneers
17 - 20 -2.5 0.5 W U +7
14
Saints Saints @ Buccaneers Buccaneers
24 - 20 -8.5 -12.5 L O +3
15
Falcons Falcons @ Buccaneers Buccaneers
29 - 28 -4.5 -5.5 L O -1
16
Panthers Panthers vs Buccaneers Buccaneers
23 - 20 -3 -6 L U -3
17
Dolphins Dolphins vs Buccaneers Buccaneers
20 - 17 -5.5 -8.5 L U -10
18
Panthers Panthers @ Buccaneers Buccaneers
14 - 16 -2.5 -0.5 L U +6