New Zealand Warriors 2026 Season Betting Stats – ATS, Over/Under & Form Trends

## Current Season Standing & ATS Performance

New Zealand Warriors currently sit ranked first in ATS performance across the NRL 2026 season. They have posted a 13-7 record against the spread for a 65% ATS mark, comfortably clearing the 52.38% threshold required to beat the bookies on a consistent basis. This strong cover rate has been built across 20 games and reflects disciplined execution relative to market expectations. The team’s recent form in the ATS column shows eight wins in their last ten outings, underscoring sustained value for spread bettors who have followed the side throughout the campaign.

## Favourite vs Underdog Performance

The Warriors have opened as favourites in 14 contests and as underdogs in six others. When installed as favourites they have covered the spread on eight occasions, delivering solid returns for bettors backing them to exceed expectations in those spots. As underdogs they have secured three outright wins, providing additional profit opportunities on the moneyline when the market has undervalued them. This split demonstrates the side’s ability to perform above the line both when installed as the market favourite and when receiving points.

## Over/Under Trends

Total points markets have leaned heavily toward the under for New Zealand. The Warriors have played in just five overs and 15 unders, translating to a 25% over percentage and a 75% under percentage. This pronounced lean mirrors the league-wide tendency, where unders have landed in 57.56% of games, but the Warriors have exceeded that benchmark. Bettors targeting the under have found repeatable value in this matchup, with the team’s games consistently finishing below the posted total.

## Biggest Spread Cover

The Warriors’ largest spread cover of the season came in round 6 against the Melbourne Storm. Installed as 9.5-point underdogs, they covered the number with a 33.5-point margin in a 38-14 victory. That result stands as the clearest single-game example of the side surpassing market projections and remains a key reference point for bettors tracking the team’s ceiling when motivated.

## League Context & Outlook

League-wide, favourites have covered at only a 47.67% clip, while overs have hit at a 42.44% rate. The Warriors’ 65% ATS mark therefore represents clear outperformance relative to the competition, particularly in a season where the spread market has held a slight edge for underdogs. Their under-heavy totals profile also aligns with the broader league trend but at an amplified rate. Looking ahead, continued adherence to these patterns should keep the Warriors in contention for top ATS honours, with bettors well-positioned to exploit both spread and total opportunities as the schedule progresses.