The Dolphins host the Cowboys at Suncorp Stadium in Round 20, a clash that pits two sides with sharply contrasting recent trajectories. While both teams enter with mixed results, home advantage and attacking potency give the Dolphins the clearer edge. The Cowboys arrive on the back of two wins but remain a fragile unit overall. Their last five outings read LLLWW, with scores of 12, 14, 20, 26 and 19 points scored. That run masks consistent defensive issues, conceding 26.8 points per game for the season and surrendering 38 and 40 points in two of their three defeats. Their try-scoring has improved lately (four tries in each of the past three games), yet the average of 18.2 points scored underlines limited sustained threat. The Dolphins, despite two straight losses, bring superior firepower. Their season averages of 24.4 points scored and 27 conceded are stronger than the Cowboys’ marks, and their recent form includes a 48-10 demolition and a 36-22 win. The 0-66 loss remains an outlier, while the two preceding victories showed clinical finishing (eight and six tries). At Suncorp, where they average more than 26 points in home games, the Dolphins look better equipped to control tempo. Statistically, the Dolphins hold advantages in both attack and efficiency. The Cowboys have managed only 91 points across their last five matches while conceding 134. In contrast, the Dolphins have posted 122 points in that window despite the heavy defeat. The 50.5-point total line sits close to both teams’ combined averages, yet the Dolphins’ recent high-scoring wins suggest the over remains viable. Betting markets reflect this edge, with the Dolphins priced at $1.55–1.62 and the Cowboys at $2.30–2.45. The -3.5 handicap for the home side is offered at even money across most agencies, while alternate lines show money flowing toward the Dolphins at -6.5 and -7.5. The Cowboys have covered just two of their last five spreads, highlighting difficulty staying competitive on the road. Tactically, the Dolphins’ ability to spread the ball wide and exploit edge defence should stretch a Cowboys side that has conceded heavily in recent losses. The Cowboys will need early completion rates above 75 percent and territory dominance to stay in the contest, yet their season-long average of 18.2 points rarely supports comeback wins. The Dolphins are expected to prevail by 8–14 points, likely covering the -3.5 spread while keeping the total around or slightly under the 50.5 line.

Dolphins hold home edge; totals lean slightly over projection

Manly Sea Eagles face the North Queensland Cowboys at 4 Pines Park in Round 19, a fixture that offers both sides a chance to steady their 2026 campaigns. Home advantage and defensive structure give the Sea Eagles a clear edge in what shapes as a low-scoring contest. The Cowboys enter with a split last-five record of two wins and three losses. Their victories came against softer opposition, 30-18 and 26-12, while the three defeats produced heavy concessions of 26, 40 and 38 points. Across the season they average 20.4 points scored but leak 26.8, underlining inconsistency in both attack and defence. Manly’s recent form is equally patchy at three losses and two wins, yet their defensive numbers stand out. They concede just 16.4 points per game and have kept opponents under 15 points in three of their last five outings. Their attack remains modest at 21.2 points per game, but the Sea Eagles rarely allow games to become shootouts. Statistically the contrast is stark. The Cowboys have averaged losing margins of 14.7 points in defeats this season, while Manly’s losses have come by an average of just 7.3 points. Manly’s try-scoring rate (4.0 per game) is comparable to the Cowboys’ 3.6, but their ability to restrict field position through completion rates and fewer errors has been superior. Tactically, Manly will look to control the middle third and starve the Cowboys of ball, forcing them into predictable long kicks that the Sea Eagles’ back-three can counter. The Cowboys must improve their middle defence and reduce errors if they are to stay competitive on the road. Bookmakers have installed Manly as clear favourites at $1.53-$1.55, with the line sitting at -4.5 to -5.5 and totals around 48.5-49.5. The spread has proven profitable for Manly in five of their last six home games against similarly ranked sides. Expect Manly to prevail by 8-14 points in a game that stays under the total. Their superior defensive organisation and home comfort should prove decisive against a Cowboys side still searching for consistency.

North Queensland Cowboys meet Manly Warringah Sea Eagles with the home side holding the projected margin. Manly's home edge and form edge shape the contest, directly supporting the approved Manly T3 5u play at True 64% probability and 2% edge. This wager reinforces expectations that Manly will exceed the team total threshold through sustained scoring pressure. Totals leaning slightly over projection align with the same game shape, confirming Manly's offensive output will dictate proceedings against the Cowboys. The single approved play ties every element together, highlighting Manly's ability to control the scoreboard and validate the margin projection without deviation.

Penrith Panthers head into their Round 17 clash against the North Queensland Cowboys at QCB Stadium with the look of a team hitting peak form at the right time. Four wins from their past five outings, including a 68-0 thrashing, underline a side that is both clinical in attack and miserly in defence. The Panthers have averaged 32.8 points scored and just 12.2 conceded across the season. Their recent results show margins of 12, 22, 2 and 68 points in victory, with only a one-point loss interrupting the run. That defensive record – allowing just 61 points across those five games – has been the standout feature. North Queensland’s form tells a different story. One win in their last five has come against the backdrop of three consecutive defeats by margins of 14, 26 and 18 points. The Cowboys are averaging only 18.8 points per game while leaking 26.8, a disparity that becomes more pronounced when facing a Panthers side that restricts opponents to under 20 points in four of its past five outings. The statistical gap is reflected in the market. Bookmakers have installed Penrith at $1.22-$1.26 while the Cowboys sit between $3.85 and $4.35. The line sits at Panthers -13.5, with totals markets clustered around 49.5-50.5. Recent trends support the short-priced favourite: Penrith’s average winning margin in victories this season sits well above the current handicap, while North Queensland has failed to cover in three straight home assignments. Tactically, the Panthers’ ability to control possession and limit errors should neutralise the Cowboys’ home advantage. North Queensland will need early completion rates above 80 per cent and a sharp reduction in their 26.8 points-against average to stay competitive, yet their current run of form suggests that remains unlikely. Penrith Panthers are expected to prevail by 14 to 20 points.

Penrith Panthers visit North Queensland Cowboys with a clear form edge projecting a 12.5-13.5 margin. That shape locks in a controlled, low-output contest. The under 24.5 sits at True 55% with a 3% edge, confirming both sides will struggle to reach the total as Penrith dictates tempo and keeps the scoreboard tight. Cowboys 6.5 at True 32% and -4% edge further reinforces the same outline: Penrith wins inside the projected band without allowing enough points for the visitors to cover the number. Together the plays paint one picture, a grinding road performance where Penrith manages field position and the Cowboys stay under the total line.

The New Zealand Warriors will look to arrest a late-season slump when they host the North Queensland Cowboys at One NZ Stadium in Round 16. While both sides have stumbled into the mid-season break, the Warriors’ superior defensive organisation and significant home advantage make them clear favourites. The Cowboys arrive with just two wins from their past five outings. Their attack has been inconsistent, averaging only 20.8 points per game for the season, and they have conceded 25.8 points on average. Recent results highlight the problem: after back-to-back victories they were held to 12 and 14 points while shipping 26 and 40 respectively. The absence of consistent forward momentum has left their middle third exposed. The Warriors, despite losing their past two matches, remain the more threatening side overall. They average 26.8 points scored and, crucially, just 13.6 conceded. Their three wins immediately prior to the recent losses came with margins of 22, 30 and 18 points, underlining the damage they can inflict when completing sets. Even in defeat they have kept points against manageable, suggesting systemic defensive structure rather than one-off lapses. At home the gap widens. One NZ Stadium has been a fortress, where the Warriors have routinely restricted opponents below 20 points. The Cowboys’ road attack, already modest, is unlikely to find enough field position against a Warriors rush defence that has forced errors at a high rate in recent weeks. Betting markets reflect this disparity. The Warriors are trading between $1.33 and $1.38, with the line sitting at -9.5. Totals markets hover around 50.5, indicating bookmakers expect a controlled rather than high-scoring contest. The value appears to lie with the Warriors on the spread or under the total, given both teams’ recent inability to post big scores consecutively. Tactically the Cowboys must improve their kick pressure and cut their error rate if they are to stay competitive. The Warriors, meanwhile, will target early territory and look to exploit the Cowboys’ right-edge defence through structured shifts. Expect the Warriors to return to the winner’s list. A 12–16 point victory looks the most probable outcome, with the home side’s defensive discipline proving the decisive factor.

North Queensland Cowboys visit New Zealand Warriors with the home side holding clear edges on the spreads. Warriors -9.5 at True 58% and 3% Edge lines up as the primary position, backed by Warriors -4.5 at True 54% and 2% Edge. Both bets project the same game shape: Warriors controlling territory and finishing with the stronger completion rate to cover the full margin. The larger stake on the -9.5 reinforces conviction that the Cowboys will struggle to stay competitive once the Warriors establish field position. Together the plays point to a decisive home win rather than a tight contest, with the half-time line adding confirmation that the margin builds early and holds through the second forty.

Dolphins head to QCB Stadium for Round 14 with genuine momentum, while Cowboys search for consistency in a fixture that carries clear betting implications. Dolphins enter the contest on the back of four wins from their past five outings. After an opening loss by two points, they have posted victories of 18, 32, 22 and 8 points, underlining both attacking potency and defensive discipline. Their season averages of 30.4 points scored and just 14.8 conceded reflect a side that controls games through structured attack and low error rates. Cowboys’ form is more mixed. Two wins and two losses from the last five matches have come with significant fluctuations, including a 30-12 defeat that exposed vulnerabilities in their middle defence. While capable of bursts—evidenced by three 30-point hauls—they have also surrendered 33 and 26 points in defeats, highlighting inconsistency that Dolphins will look to exploit. Statistically the gap is clear. Dolphins average 15.6 more points per game than they concede, whereas Cowboys sit at a modest plus-3.4 differential. Dolphins’ recent try-scoring rate of 5.2 per match dwarfs Cowboys’ 4.0, and their tighter defensive structure (conceding 14.8 on average) should limit Cowboys’ opportunities at home. Key to the contest will be Dolphins’ ability to maintain completion rates above 80 percent and starve Cowboys of repeat sets. Cowboys must improve their goal-line defence and reduce errors if they are to keep the contest within the current 4.5-point spread. Bookmakers have installed Dolphins as 1.58 favourites with spreads heavily supporting them at -4.5. Totals markets sit around the 54.5-55.5 line, reflecting expectations of a high-scoring but controlled affair. Dolphins should prevail by 8-14 points, continuing their strong road form and exposing Cowboys’ defensive lapses.

Dolphins carry a slight road edge into Saturday’s clash with North Queensland Cowboys. The market prices Dolphins -4.5 at a 52.1% true probability with 1.8% edge, while the second-half line of -2.5 sits at 51.3% true and 0.4% edge. Both spreads point to Dolphins extending control after half-time. The over 28.5 Dolphins team total aligns at 51.4% true, reinforcing expectations that the visitors will post enough points to cover the full-game margin. Murray Taulagi anytime try at 41.2% true rounds out the shape, signalling a pathway for Dolphins to stretch the lead through structured attack. Together the approved plays project a controlled Dolphins performance that lands the spreads and team total without relying on variance.

The Cowboys head to GIO Stadium in Round 13 looking to build on a promising run of results against a Raiders side still searching for consistency. With both teams hovering near the middle of the ladder, this clash carries real weight for their respective seasons. The Cowboys arrive with three wins from their last five outings. Their attack has been potent at times, posting 30 points in two of those victories, though a 12-26 loss in their most recent game highlighted occasional lapses. Defensively they have shown strength, holding opponents under 20 points in three of the five matches. Their season averages of 23.6 points scored and 20.2 conceded reflect a balanced side capable of controlling games when their completion rate stays high. The Raiders’ form is more uneven, with two wins and three losses across the same stretch. While they scored 26 and 28 in their victories, they have conceded 30-plus points in three of the five games. Their season figures of 21.6 points for and 23.4 against suggest a team that can be dangerous in patches but remains vulnerable when errors mount or their defensive line is stretched. Statistically the Cowboys hold a slight edge in both attack and defence. Their recent try-scoring rate (averaging just under four per game in the last five) outpaces the Raiders, and they have been more effective at restricting opponents. However, the Raiders boast strong home numbers at GIO Stadium and will look to exploit any Cowboys mistakes in the middle third. Key personnel will shape the contest. The Cowboys rely on structured play through their halves and a powerful forward pack to control field position, while the Raiders will look to their strike weapons on the edges to create opportunities from broken play. Both teams have shown they can score quickly when momentum swings their way. Betting markets have installed the Raiders as narrow favourites, with head-to-head odds around $1.65-$1.71 for the home side and $2.13-$2.30 for the Cowboys. The line sits at Raiders -2.5 or -3.5, reflecting the perceived home advantage, while the total points line hovers near 53.5-54.5. Recent trends point to games involving these sides staying reasonably close rather than blowouts. Expect a tight, physical encounter where field position and discipline prove decisive. The Cowboys’ defensive organisation gives them a platform to stay competitive on the road, yet the Raiders’ home record suggests they will be hard to beat. A narrow victory for either side appears likely, with the final margin expected to fall between four and ten points.

Canberra Raiders host North Queensland Cowboys with every approved play aligned on a home-controlled shape. Canberra Raiders -3.5 at True 53.1% and 3.2% edge pairs with the -1.5 at True 51.9% and 2.4% edge to project the hosts covering by multiple scores. The under 53.5 full game total at True 52.2% and 1.8% edge reinforces a measured tempo that limits overall points. Over 27.5 Canberra Raiders at True 51.4% and 2.3% edge completes the picture, indicating the Raiders reach that mark while the total stays under. These positions converge on a Raiders-led contest where they set the pace, manage possession, and deliver the required margins without inflating the scoreboard.

The Rabbitohs head north to QCB Stadium for a Round 12 showdown against the Cowboys, a matchup that pits one of the competition’s most explosive attacks against a side showing improving defensive discipline on home turf. With both teams sitting on mixed results this season, the contest offers a clear test of whether the Rabbitohs can maintain scoring momentum on the road or if the Cowboys’ structure will prevail. The Rabbitohs enter the fixture with a 2-3 record across their past five outings. While they have produced two high-scoring victories, including a 48-6 result and a 36-12 win, their three defeats have been marked by sharp declines in output. They averaged just 19.3 points in those losses and conceded 34.7 points per game, exposing vulnerability once momentum shifts. The Cowboys, by contrast, hold a 3-2 mark and have demonstrated greater consistency, winning three of their last five by an average margin of 11.3 points. Their defensive record over that stretch has been solid, conceding 20 points or fewer in three of the five matches. Season-long averages reinforce the stylistic contrast. The Rabbitohs score 30 points per game on average but concede 24.4, while the Cowboys sit at 23.6 points scored and a stronger 20.2 conceded. The Rabbitohs have also registered 27 tries across their last five games compared with the Cowboys’ 20, underlining their greater threat in broken field. However, the Cowboys’ ability to limit opponents to lower totals at QCB Stadium suggests they are well-placed to frustrate Rabbitohs’ attacking patterns. Tactically, the Rabbitohs will look to exploit width and speed early to build a lead, relying on their superior points-per-game output. The Cowboys are expected to focus on completion rates and structured sets, aiming to starve the Rabbitohs of possession while capitalising on any errors through controlled territory gains. Home advantage at QCB Stadium further tilts the balance, particularly given the Cowboys’ stronger recent record in containing high-scoring opponents. With no clear betting line provided, market trends are likely to favour the home side on the handicap given their defensive improvements and venue record. Total points markets could hover around the mid-40s, reflecting the Rabbitohs’ firepower offset by the Cowboys’ ability to slow games down. Overall, the Cowboys are well placed to take the points. Their balanced form and defensive edge at home should see them prevail by a margin of four to ten points in a controlled, low-error performance.

The North Queensland Cowboys hold the edge at home against the South Sydney Rabbitohs. The Cowboys -2.5 bet projects a controlled performance from the hosts, backed by a True 58.4% probability and 3.2% edge. This shape sees North Queensland dictating terms without allowing the Rabbitohs to pull away. Alex Johnston's anytime try selection at a True 61.2% probability and 4.8% edge fits the same narrative, allowing South Sydney to threaten but ultimately falling short on the spread. The combination points to a contest where the Cowboys cover comfortably while Johnston contributes in attack for the visitors.

The Sydney Roosters host the North Queensland Cowboys at Suncorp Stadium in Round 11, 2026, in a contest that pits the competition’s strongest recent attack against a visitor side fighting to steady inconsistent results. The Roosters enter with a 3-2 record across their past five outings, including a dominant 62-point explosion and consecutive wins of 38 and 28. While consecutive narrow losses of 12-18 and 4-18 have dented momentum, their season averages of 28.8 points scored and just 17.6 conceded remain elite. The Cowboys sit at 3-2 as well but show greater volatility, with results of 28-12, 30-33, 18-12, 30-18 and 12-26. Their 23.6 points for and 20.2 against per game reflect a balanced but less potent unit. Scoring trends favour the hosts. The Roosters have produced three 28-plus point hauls in five weeks, while the Cowboys have crossed 30 only twice and managed just 12 points in their most recent outing. Defensively the Roosters have restricted opponents to 18 or fewer on four occasions; the Cowboys have allowed 26-plus twice. At Suncorp the home side’s superior completion and error management should further amplify these edges. Betting markets reflect the disparity. The Roosters are $1.19 favourites with the Cowboys at $4.60–$5.10, while the line sits at Roosters -15.5. A total of 57.5 points is offered, aligning with the combined seasonal averages of 52.4. Recent margins suggest the Roosters are likely to cover the spread if they avoid another low-output performance. The Cowboys will rely on structured middle defence and opportunistic kicking to stay competitive, yet their road form and lower ceiling make a repeat of last week’s 12-point total a risk. Expect the Roosters to control territory and finish with a 14–20 point victory.

Sydney Roosters host North Queensland Cowboys with heavy favoritism driven by home advantage and road struggles. The Roosters -14.5 spread at 80.1% True and 10.1% Edge projects a clear margin. Daniel Tupou anytime try scorer at 72% True and 8% Edge fits the expected attacking shape, matched by Cody Ramsey at 65% True and 1.3% Edge. First-half scoring aligns with over 26.5 at 57.8% True and 6.5% Edge, while the second half follows with over 27.5 at 52.4% True and 3.8% Edge. These positions reinforce one projected game shape where the Roosters control territory early, key outside backs cross, and points accumulate above the half totals in both periods.

The Parramatta Eels arrive at QCB Stadium in Round 10 facing another stern examination against the North Queensland Cowboys, a contest that could further define their troubling 2026 campaign. With both sides separated by sharp contrasts in recent results and defensive structure, the home side enters as clear favourites. Parramatta’s last five outings read L-L-W-L-L, with the Eels managing just 95 points across those games while conceding 161. Their season averages of 19 points scored and 32.2 conceded underline a persistent inability to contain opposition attacks. Even the lone victory yielded 33 points but came at the cost of 30 conceded, highlighting ongoing vulnerabilities. North Queensland’s formline of W-L-W-W-L offers more encouragement. The Cowboys average 23.6 points scored and 20.2 conceded, reflecting a balanced attack and markedly stingier defence. Their recent scoring has been more consistent, with three of the last five games producing at least 28 points. Statistically the gap is pronounced. The Eels have crossed for just 18 tries in their last five matches, while the Cowboys have posted 20. Defensively, Parramatta’s 32.2 points conceded per game leaves them exposed to structured attacks that the Cowboys have shown they can execute. Tactically, expect the Cowboys to control possession and territory, using their structured sets to exploit Parramatta’s edge defence. The Eels will need to improve completion rates and reduce errors to stay competitive, but their current numbers suggest this remains a work in progress. Betting markets reflect the disparity. SportsBet lists the Cowboys at $1.24, with the Eels at $4. The -13.5 line for North Queensland and a total of 56.5 points indicate expectations of a comfortable home victory and a moderate scoring affair. North Queensland should prevail by 12 to 18 points, extending Parramatta’s road woes while confirming the Cowboys’ status as the more complete side heading into the middle rounds.

The Parramatta Eels face off against the North Queensland Cowboys in a clash where the Cowboys hold the upper hand. We lean on raw analytics and the engine’s calibrated probability to dissect this matchup. The Cowboys dominate our top plays, with North Queensland Cowboys -11.5 and OVER 55.5 Full Game Total both boasting a True% of 75.2% and an Edge of 5.1%—sharp bets with serious value. Parramatta, often floundering in the bottom ranks, could get smashed by a top-tier Cowboys outfit ready to bash. Braidon Burns as an Anytime Try Scorer (True: 62%, Edge: 8.5%) is another standout play. Expect North Queensland to run riot, piling on points. Our model screams Cowboys dominance—don’t expect the Eels to keep up in this one-sided thrashing.

The NQ Cowboys head to Accor Stadium to take on the Canterbury Bulldogs in Round 9, a matchup that pits the visitors’ attacking rhythm against a home side searching for consistency. With both teams separated by just a fraction in the betting markets, this contest offers a clear look at two sides moving in opposite directions. The Cowboys arrive with a 3-2 record across their past five outings. They have shown the ability to put pressure on opponents, averaging 23.6 points per game for the season while conceding 20.2. Their recent scoring spread—28, 30, 18, 30 and 12—highlights an attack capable of producing big numbers when completions stay high. Defensively they have kept two opponents to 12 points or fewer in that stretch. The Bulldogs, by contrast, have managed just one win in five and sit with season averages of 17.2 points scored and 30.4 conceded. Their last five scores read 12, 12, 16, 30 and 16, revealing a side that has struggled to sustain momentum. The 44- and 38-point concessions in two of those games underline defensive issues that have not yet been resolved on the road or at home. Statistically the Cowboys hold the edge in both attack and defence. They have crossed for 20 tries in their past five matches compared with the Bulldogs’ 15. The visitors also post a positive points differential of +3.4 per game on season averages, while the Bulldogs sit at -13.2. Recent margins reinforce the trend: the Cowboys’ three wins came by 16, 18 and 12 points, whereas the Bulldogs’ sole victory was by 10. Tactically the Bulldogs will look to use home advantage and an early completion rate to slow the Cowboys’ middle-third speed. For the visitors, maintaining low error counts and exploiting the Bulldogs’ right-edge defence will be key. With the line so tight—SportsBet listing the Bulldogs at $1.90 and the Cowboys at $1.94—the market sees little between the sides, yet the underlying numbers suggest otherwise. Expect the NQ Cowboys to control field position and finish with a 8–14 point victory.

Stripping away streaks and forcing a pure edge hunt. Cowboys trek to Belmore as defensively stout but offensively blunt, while Bulldogs loom with scoring punch. Hammer the monster Under 20.5 1H Total at 72.5% true probability, 84.9% edge – Tier 2 but first-half slog certain. Lock in Tier 1 UNDER 50.5 Full Game Total, 65.4% true, 27.5% edge for the full low-octane grind. Over 25.5 1H Total hits 65.5% true, 31% edge – line variance screams value. Bulldogs feast Over 25.5 team total, 64.8% true; Cowboys crawl Under 23.5 at 68.2% true. Xerri anytime try 39.1% true edges in. Under 25.5 2H caps the blowout. Ruthless unders dominate – Cowboys stifled, Bulldogs controlled chaos. Stack and bank, no prisoners.

The Cronulla Sharks head to QCB Stadium for Round 8, 2026, looking to build on a mixed away record against a North Queensland Cowboys side that has shown defensive resilience at home. With both teams hovering around the middle of the ladder, this contest carries significant momentum value. Cronulla’s last five results read L W L W W, producing 164 points at an average of 32.8 per game. Their attack has been explosive in victories, but the 12-point and 46-point concessions in losses highlight occasional lapses in structure. North Queensland sit at W L W W L, averaging 23.6 points scored and just 20.2 conceded. Their defensive numbers are stronger overall, particularly in the two home wins where they limited opponents to 12 and 18 points. Statistically, the Sharks generate more try-scoring opportunities but allow higher margins when beaten. Cronulla’s aggregate margin across their last five is +34, while the Cowboys are only +17 despite conceding fewer points on average. This suggests the visitors will look to play an up-tempo style, targeting quick play-the-balls to stretch North Queensland’s middle. Key areas will centre on completion rates and error management. Cronulla’s higher scoring output relies on maintaining possession through the middle third, while the Cowboys will seek to slow the ruck and force handling mistakes. Home advantage at QCB Stadium typically rewards teams that control territory, a factor that could offset some of Cronulla’s attacking edge. Sportsbet lists the Sharks at $1.85 and Cowboys at $2.00, with the total set at 52.5. The narrow head-to-head and spread markets reflect genuine uncertainty. Punters may find value in the under if North Queensland’s defence continues to restrict field position. Expect a tight, physical contest decided by execution in the final twenty minutes. The Sharks possess the greater attacking upside, yet the Cowboys’ home defensive record gives them every chance of an upset. Our prediction is a Cronulla win by 4–8 points in a low-to-mid 50s total.

The Cronulla Sutherland Sharks face the North Queensland Cowboys in a brutal NRL showdown. Sharks are on a mixed run, copping a 34-22 loss to Sydney Roosters in R6 but smashing Canberra 34-22 in R4. Cowboys, meanwhile, are patchy, thrashed 38-6 by Manly in R7 after a gutsy 35-31 win over Brisbane in R6. Sharks hold the edge here, backed by our top play: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks -0.5 with a True probability of 72.5% and a savage 4.5% edge (7.5u, Tier 4). Another banger is Anytime Try Scorer — Murray Taulagi at 72.5% True and 4.2% edge (7.5u, Tier 4). Cowboys, flirting with bottom-4 mediocrity, better brace for a hiding against a top-tier Sharks outfit hungry for blood. We’re locking in heavy units—expect a massacre if Cronulla fires.